Tropical Storm Emily forms from Invest 91L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 AM GMT on August 02, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily formed this afternoon after investigation by the Hurricane Hunters. While dodging the Lesser Antilles islands, the Hunters managed to find a closed surface circulation. Emily is currently located near 15.2°N, 62.0°W, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Thunderstorm activity has grown in size and intensity over the past 6 hours, and mid-level circulation is still elongated, but strong. The environment around Emily hasn't changed much from this morning. The moisture within the storm is still relatively high, although there continues to be a lingering dry, Saharan air mass to its north, which could become a factor in intensification. Wind shear is still high (30-40 knots) on the north side, as well.


Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 7:30pm EDT as it moves west into the Caribbean.

Forecast For Emily
The official track forecast is that Emily will continue to travel west-northwest through the Caribbean and cross Hispaniola Wednesday morning, after which it turns slightly more to the north for a potential landfall along the Florida east coast as a hurricane. Models continue to be split between Emily entering the Gulf of Mexico or recurving before making landfall along the East Coast. In the camp of an eastern Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models. The ECMWF has been trending that way, as well. The GFS continues to favor a northwest track towards Florida before taking a turn to the northeast. The HWRF has been forecasting an eastern coast of Florida solution, and continues to do so in the 12Z run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, but the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. As the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center illustrates, this is a U.S. landfall threat.


Figure 2. Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Emily will probably strengthen into a hurricane. In the 12Z runs, the GFDL brings Emily up to category 2 strength, and HWRF forecasts it to max out at category 1. DSHIPS (the SHIPS model that takes into account land interaction) forecasts maximum intensity of a moderate tropical storm. General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast.

Dr. Rob Carver might have an update later this evening, and I'll definitely be back tomorrow, early afternoon, with a new post on Emily.

Angela

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Some Music For Emily Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
665. MTWX
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Models will continue to shift, whether they shift towards the north, south, east, or west, is unknown, but I can guarantee that they will change on a run-to-run basis.

It's nothing worth losing sleep over since Emily is still days out from nearing us, I just do it for fun, lol.

Believe me, you don't want to be in one, lol. I haven't been in many, but no air conditioning, no electricity, bad food, and cold showers aren't fun, lol.

If you are lucky enough to have water at all...
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1393
Quoting Hurricanes12:


I think they will shift east in the next advisory, but this will change over the days. It all depends on intensity and atmospheric properties that will change greatly over the next few days. I think the cone released on the 7:30 EDT advisory was a combination of a few models that were hinting at a landfall a bit west of Florida, and the other general consensus models, hinting at a landfall somewhere in the Bahamas before curving out in the North-Eastern Atlantic.


No, you are right they are. I think florida is going to be ok, but north of there may not!
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 927
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
1100 PM AST MON AUG 01 2011

...EMILY CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
GRADUALLY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 62.9W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...AND ANTIGUA
* HAITI
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tharpgomex:
Are there many of us from the GOM area on here? Just curious. I am in the Florida panhandle.


It's a secret where I'm from. ;)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting MississippiWx:


Would be a little awkward to see her hump the ridge.


you obviously never met my ex wife
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Quoting lottotexas:
I'm a few miles north of u and only received .25in.


The rain right over me...The rest of Houston missed out this time..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Believe me, you don't want to be in one, lol. I haven't been in many, but no air conditioning, no electricity, bad food, and cold showers aren't fun, lol.

Don't forget to mention looters, price gougers, fly-by-night contractors, instant insurance rate hikes, the lingering sense of unease that can last for weeks if not months...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GHOSTY1:


Same here, i live in the Jersey Village area and were our own city but most of us just put Houston, were surrounded by Houston and our Houstonians sounds better than Jersey Villagites (thats just a weird name) but got the best cops though, they rock!


LOL idk I kinda like Fort Bend Sheriff Depart, but then again I go to school in northern Louisiana where I've seen cops curse at drivers cause they were directing traffic and the drivers were stopping at a stop sign. Those cops deserved to take the cowboy hats off lol.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 203
hey KEEPEROFTHEGATE where are do you partake from goodsir if i may ask?
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
EMILY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
1100 PM AST MON AUG 1 2011

.TROPICAL STORM EMILY

PRZ001-002-003-004-005-006-007-008-009-010-011-01 2-013-020900-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1100 PM AST MON AUG 1 2011

PUERTO-RICO 18.22N 66.44W
VIEQUES 18.12N 65.43W
CULEBRA 18.32N 65.28W

$$

VIZ001-002-020900-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1100 PM AST MON AUG 1 2011

ST-THOMAS-AND-ST-JOHN 18.33N 64.85W
ST-CROIX 17.74N 64.73W

$$

ATTN...WFO...SJU...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tharpgomex:
Are there many of us from the GOM area on here? Just curious. I am in the Florida panhandle.


Palm Harbor, middle of the west coast
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Florida seems like it will dodge another storm... Silencing all the Florida Doom Casters (JFV) ...

Im sitting here in Florida and i can still hear the crickets...

And the gulf caster's have quieted down now.. If its not going through florida or cuba then it takes away all their fantasy's...

Alas... here come the Carolina Caster's ... a new Super-Bred of Wishcasters..

Now Waiting for the first NEW YORK DOOM Caster.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GHOSTY1:
whats with the people saying eastern or northeastern turn? what will cause this turn? (i realize this sounded a little rude but no rudeness meant im just a little lazy to go back and erase :))
There is a trough going across the US that is going to suck her up.
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Quoting MrsOsa:


I'm from the Gulfport/Biloxi, MS area
Me too.
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Quoting FLWxChaser:


Actually it's the other way around. The C-130 is the pricey ship compared to the G4. To be fair though they fly different mission profiles, so it's not so much money as it is mission needs.


Thanks for the sane post...also one would have a really BAD day flying a Turbo Fan into Hurricane at Height.

The Rain would stall both engines and the Mayday would have to be a Quickie.

G-4's Orbit ahead of a Storm for Upper Air Data..only P-3 Orions,,from NOAA and C-130J penetrate the Cores
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


There is nothing to suggest that Emily is starting a weakening trend - Wind shear is light due to an ULAC overhead, the system has convergence, and the trade winds in the Eastern Caribbean are lighter than usual.







And still the low level center is outrunning the deep convection overhead.The storm has no convection in the entire western semi-circle.30 knots of shear immediately to the N and rising. Not the best environment for deepening as reflected in the worsening and somewhat ragged appearance.

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and...it's 'you're'.....seriously....'you're'.....not 'your'.....it's 'you're....a contraction of 'you are'.....'you're'....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weather12know:


SW Houston here


no but the models are trending back to the east, so that will be good for Florida
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 927
Quoting presslord:
Is Emily going to hump the ridge?


Would be a little awkward to see her hump the ridge.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Us houstonians are taking over here!

Quoting connie1976:
BaHaHurricane,

I'm sorry for being offended.... I'm overly sensitive... I need to think about what I post sometimes.... sorry about that!


Don't worry about i recieve quite a bit of flak for my posts sometimes too and apologize so far most of the time but if not , they'll get over it and just follow on with out them.
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


The Current NHC Cone has it making a Direct Landfall on my Location.....

Your saying that the models could shift back west in the morning?

So i still need to stay up and watch this?
Models will continue to shift, whether they shift towards the north, south, east, or west, is unknown, but I can guarantee that they will change on a run-to-run basis.

It's nothing worth losing sleep over since Emily is still days out from nearing us, I just do it for fun, lol.

Quoting wolftribe2009:


You are in Miami. If this thing hits Miami I wish I was there for the hurricane party lol. I have never been to one but always here about them.
LMAO, I read your post incorrectly. Didn't see hurricane party.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
642. MTWX
Anyone have the forecasted steering layers?? Looking at history and it's current speed/direction, doesn't really look to turn any time in the near future IMO.
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1393
Quoting MrsOsa:


I'm from the Gulfport/Biloxi, MS area
I'm from there, parents still there. I'm in Fowl River, AL now.
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Quoting Dennis8:
Don brought me 3.40"-I do storm spotting for Tim Heller -Channel 13
I'm a few miles north of u and only received .25in.
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Lots of Houston folks....
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Quoting presslord:
Is Emily going to hump the ridge?



ooofh,,..now dat Image is seared into my BHG,,thanx dude
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Kibkaos and Ghosty1, I'm in Houston as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting connie1976:
BaHaHurricane,

I'm sorry for being offended.... I'm overly sensitive... I need to think about what I post sometimes.... sorry about that!
Hey, we r cool... I know u post in here pretty regular during the season, so I didn't think u meant anything mean by it.

In any case, seems like we have to wait at least one more day before we have a better idea whether it will come our way...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yoboi:


it cost alot more to fly a jet G4 than a c-130


Actually it's the other way around. The C-130 is the pricey ship compared to the G4. To be fair though they fly different mission profiles, so it's not so much money as it is mission needs.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
634. yoboi
Quoting Patrap:


Cost is NOT ever a constraint to fly a HH mission,,no matter the Aircraft.

Spent a few years in the USMC AirWing,,and many a Day over at Keesler in 85..

One can feel free to ask the Cdrs at each Base, Keesler or McDill,,they have e-mail sport.


so your saying there is never any politics with the NHC???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MTWX:
Is it just me or is the cone west of where the models are shooting?


I think they will shift east in the next advisory, but this will change over the days. It all depends on intensity and atmospheric properties that will change greatly over the next few days. I think the cone released on the 7:30 EDT advisory was a combination of a few models that were hinting at a landfall a bit west of Florida, and the other general consensus models, hinting at a landfall somewhere in the Bahamas before curving out in the North-Eastern Atlantic.
Member Since: June 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 528
Quoting tharpgomex:
Are there many of us from the GOM area on here? Just curious. I am in the Florida panhandle.


SW Houston here
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631. wpb
Quoting animalrsq:


I'm really hoping NOT!


link from 7/31
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Is Emily going to hump the ridge?
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629. Relix
I am starting to feel fairly certain not much will happen in PR except for rain at this point.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
628. MahFL
Quoting wolftribe2009:


You are in Miami. If this thing hits Miami I wish I was there for the hurricane party lol. I have never been to one but always here about them.


people have died in Hurricane Parties...so be careful.
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627. xcool
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Quoting tharpgomex:
Are there many of us from the GOM area on here? Just curious. I am in the Florida panhandle.


I'm from Satsuma,Al.

sheri
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Don brought me 3.40"-I do storm spotting for Tim Heller -Channel 13
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Quoting stormpetrol:


Blame it on the GOP, not a US citizen , but imo they are down right nasty, sure had the democrats by where the wool is short& the problem with the democrats they only have the wool, nothing else! case closed!!
How about a whole bunch of years spending way more than is being taken in by government whoever they were thinking that there was no day of reckoning. Foolish thinking by the people voted in and the people voting them in.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looking at the models, they are trending back to the east. I think Florida will be able to breath easier, but we will have to watch out to the north!



passes off the coast of Florida



watch out Cape Hatteras!
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 927
Quoting texwarhawk:


And another here-- actually just north of Sugar Land but my zip says Houston lol


Katy here.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Models trending back East a bit. The wig wag continues. Most likely won't get a good idea until after Hispaniola.
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619. MTWX
Is it just me or is the cone west of where the models are shooting?
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1393
Quoting BigDaddy1978:
Long time lurker here.

Just wanted to say you're all doing a great job keeping track of these storms. Personally I don't speculate, I'm not that good at it and can't read models.

The best thing for Emily? Moderate tropical storm into Texas but that doesn't look like it's going to happen. (I was just there. It's worse than the dust bowl throughout Texas and Oklahoma.)

It's a race against time though. I think that trough is passing through here today or tomorrow as it slides south. (Pittsburgh area.)

I'll keep reading but just wanted to say I enjoy everyone's analysis!


I'd say say that you are a long time lurker. 11 posts since 2005. :)
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Quoting kmanislander:


See post 589


There is nothing to suggest that Emily is starting a weakening trend - Wind shear is light due to an ULAC overhead, the system has convergence, and the trade winds in the Eastern Caribbean are lighter than usual.





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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.