Tropical Storm Emily forms from Invest 91L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 AM GMT on August 02, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily formed this afternoon after investigation by the Hurricane Hunters. While dodging the Lesser Antilles islands, the Hunters managed to find a closed surface circulation. Emily is currently located near 15.2°N, 62.0°W, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Thunderstorm activity has grown in size and intensity over the past 6 hours, and mid-level circulation is still elongated, but strong. The environment around Emily hasn't changed much from this morning. The moisture within the storm is still relatively high, although there continues to be a lingering dry, Saharan air mass to its north, which could become a factor in intensification. Wind shear is still high (30-40 knots) on the north side, as well.


Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 7:30pm EDT as it moves west into the Caribbean.

Forecast For Emily
The official track forecast is that Emily will continue to travel west-northwest through the Caribbean and cross Hispaniola Wednesday morning, after which it turns slightly more to the north for a potential landfall along the Florida east coast as a hurricane. Models continue to be split between Emily entering the Gulf of Mexico or recurving before making landfall along the East Coast. In the camp of an eastern Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models. The ECMWF has been trending that way, as well. The GFS continues to favor a northwest track towards Florida before taking a turn to the northeast. The HWRF has been forecasting an eastern coast of Florida solution, and continues to do so in the 12Z run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, but the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. As the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center illustrates, this is a U.S. landfall threat.


Figure 2. Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Emily will probably strengthen into a hurricane. In the 12Z runs, the GFDL brings Emily up to category 2 strength, and HWRF forecasts it to max out at category 1. DSHIPS (the SHIPS model that takes into account land interaction) forecasts maximum intensity of a moderate tropical storm. General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast.

Dr. Rob Carver might have an update later this evening, and I'll definitely be back tomorrow, early afternoon, with a new post on Emily.

Angela

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Quoting Dennis8:



WORST OF ALL IS NO TOLIET
Long before we get this far down the list.... NO A/C....
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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


Nam is not a tropical model...


It's not, but it's done the best so far of all the models on 91/Emily.
Member Since: August 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 373
714. 7544
hmm north of cuba so she may not get wiped out now but get stroger by the bahamas
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Quoting lottotexas:
Daughter and her family live 2 blocks from JV high school.


In safety purposes you may not anyways but if you are you don't have to worry about there safety JVPD is awesome about public safety i sometimes do some ridealongs with them and they're always on the job no slacking and the VFD is good too, can't leave them out
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
Quoting FLWxChaser:


Actually it's the other way around. The C-130 is the pricey ship compared to the G4. To be fair though they fly different mission profiles, so it's not so much money as it is mission needs.

The seasons can be pretty expandomatic as 2005 showed. The budget has to be quite flexible.
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Quoting Torgen:


Good God, I remember the name Frank Billingsley from TV when I lived in Houston in the mid 80s. I heard the guy with the horrible white toupee and Roach Report died a few years ago. I can hear him now, but can't remember his name. He'd always yell his name in a sing-song signoff, with "EYEwitness News!"


Marvin Zindler, who put the Chicken Ranch out of business. ;)

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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
[sigh] These forecast maps are not making me happy.... that track takes the eye about 30-50 miles west of my home, ensuring that if there's a dirty side, I'm in it. It tracks the system right up the Tongue of the Ocean, the only deep water that parallels the track. This is sooo not making me excited...
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TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
1100 PM AST MON AUG 01 2011

EMILY STILL HAS A RATHER DISHEVELED APPEARANCE IN GEOSTATIONARY
IMAGERY...AND THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A BIT OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS AND LACK MUCH IN THE WAY OF CURVATURE. BASED ON THE LACK OF
IMPROVEMENT IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
00Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM SAB. THE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AS SEEN BY THE COPIOUS
DRY AIR IN THE 00Z SAN JUAN RADIOSONDE AND SATELLITE PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY MODEST
STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IN FACT THE LATEST GFDL
MODEL RUN EVEN DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT TWO DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH
36 HOURS...AND THEN SHOWS WEAKENING AT 48 AND 72 HOURS AS EMILY IS
EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH HISPANIOLA. ASSUMING THAT EMILY RECOVERS
FROM INTERACTION WITH THE ISLAND...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
LATE IN THE PERIOD AND THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM.

THE CENTER HAS BEEN A BIT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE SINCE THE AIRCRAFT
DEPARTED...SO THE INITIAL POSITION AND INITIAL MOTION OF 275/15 ARE
QUITE UNCERTAIN AND BASED LARGELY ON CONTINUITY. OVERALL THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE RIDGE NORTH OF EMILY OVER THE
NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW EMILY TO TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
LATE IN THE PERIOD... THE MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH LIFTING OUT AND
SOME RIDGING RE-BUILDING NORTH OF EMILY. HOWEVER...BOTH THE
DETAILS OF THE RIDGE AND THE DEPTH OF THE CYCLONE APPEAR TO MAKE
ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK. FOR EXAMPLE...THE LATEST
GFS RUN HAS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE AND A MUCH DEEPER
REPRESENTATION OF EMILY THAT MOVES MORE NORTHWARD. THE HWRF AND
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO FOLLOW THIS GENERAL SCENARIO. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH WEAKER REPRESENTATION OF EMILY THAT
MOVES MORE WESTWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD UNDERNEATH A STRONGER RIDGE.
GIVEN THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TRACK FORECAST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NEW NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 72
HOURS...AND HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT TOWARD THE TVCA
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAYS 4 AND 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 15.5N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 15.9N 64.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 16.8N 67.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 17.8N 69.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 18.9N 71.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/0000Z 22.0N 75.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 06/0000Z 25.0N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 27.5N 80.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Quoting xcool:


Wow Nam's got it well south still. I know Nam isn't a Tropical model, but it seems to have had a good handle on this storm so far. We'll see. Again, don't take stock into the models yet, like others have said they're gonna flip flop like always.
Member Since: August 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 373
Quoting bappit:

I thought it was bump the ridge.
Lol I'm pretty sure is pump the ridge, lol
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting xcool:


Nam is not a tropical model...
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 332
Quoting OUSHAWN:


I lived in Houston...went to Eisenhower HS...for my first 36 years and I like Tim. However, have to say that Frank Billingsley was my favorite when I moved to Plano two years ago. He did start out on channel 13 though...as back up for Ed Brandon.


Good God, I remember the name Frank Billingsley from TV when I lived in Houston in the mid 80s. I heard the guy with the horrible white toupee and Roach Report died a few years ago. I can hear him now, but can't remember his name. He'd always yell his name in a sing-song signoff, with "EYEwitness News!"
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702. yoboi
Quoting FrankZapper:
Why would you want to nuke a hurricane and spread radiation all over the place? It would only create a radioactive hurricane. Now napalm,thats the way to go. :)


japan already tried this in the 70's did not help matters
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Quoting aquak9:


Wrong. I don't feel like spending the weekend setting up RedCross shelters up and down the NE Fla coastine.


Lets just let it be a tropical storm,striking SE Florida from SE heading NW @10mph and get the Everglades and Lake Oh-bee-juan-ken-o-bee get full again and the rest of the state get caught up with their water needs.
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Quoting OUSHAWN:


I lived in Houston...went to Eisenhower HS...for my first 36 years and I like Tim. However, have to say that Frank Billingsley was my favorite when I moved to Plano two years ago. He did start out on channel 13 though...as back up for Ed Brandon.


Frank did an amazing job during Ike if I might add-- esp. with the Bolivar fly over. I'm sure it was an honor to be the first to do so, and he treated it as such. Between him and Anthony (who does a good job trying to increase public awareness) I think Local 2 does an amazing job.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 203
Quoting ackee:
seem like the model trending slighly west and south CUBA HATI even jamaica need watch this EMILY


No, the NHC just put out the new 5 day tracking map, and it is to the EAST.
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 927
Quoting msgambler:
I'm from there, parents still there. I'm in Fowl River, AL now.


I love it here. Only place I'd really consider living other than here right now is New Orleans, LA area. I put in for a job there and would love the experience. Either way I'd still have to watch out for these canes!
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Quoting presslord:
Is Emily going to hump the ridge?

I thought it was bump the ridge.
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


not liking that...i am at 80, 32....


Tigger,
What does that mean? I'm in chs too... but reading the coordinates in the list have always confused me. I thought those were where she had been...
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Quoting Dennis8:


The rain right over me...The rest of Houston missed out this time..
Was at MHNW hospital for 1&1/2 hrs. Rain never stopped.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Track shifted north, not really much of an eastward component.



Is it still possible that their could be slight fluctations to the West and South... so that we could have a cone like the one we had at 5pm?

Of course the landfall point is not set in stone... therefore it could make landfall in cape canveral or Miami... Am i correct?
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 332
691. xcool
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Track shifted north, not really much of an eastward component.




Still getting the eyewall in Jupiter, need more east....
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waz up nigel? were u from if u dont mind me askin? :P
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
Quoting Dennis8:


The rain right over me...The rest of Houston missed out this time..


It has rained twice at my house since I came home for summer in mid-May. Both storms lasted about 3min. I've seen it rain just down the street on the east side of HWY 6, just to the west and to the north, but it seems as soon as storms get near Sugar Land Airport they fizzle out and I'm left with the humidity without the cooling rain.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 203
Quoting RMM34667:


FL west central coast.. (AKA Tampa Bay).. watching intently what might unfold!
I'm in Largo which is not too far from Clearwater Beach, also keeping a close eye on Emily!
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting msgambler:
I'm from there, parents still there. I'm in Fowl River, AL now.


Fowl River, AL? I think you're making that up. ;>)
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685. HCW
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Quoting GHOSTY1:


Same here, i live in the Jersey Village area and were our own city but most of us just put Houston, were surrounded by Houston and our Houstonians sounds better than Jersey Villagites (thats just a weird name) but got the best cops though, they rock!
Daughter and her family live 2 blocks from JV high school.
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I respect the cops here above all else on almost any level, most of the cops have military backgrounds, army, marines, etc., and some have gone through many different agencies! They uphold the law while being great to the community! ROCK ON JVPD!!!
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
Track shifted north, not really much of an eastward component.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Dennis8:



WORST OF ALL IS NO TOLIET


Your Disgusting... Poop Outside!
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 332
EMILY CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN GRADUALLY...
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I tried with "its track" and "It's anybody's guess" last week.... didn't help much.... howareya, neighbour?


all is well here in Charleston....hope your good... ;-)
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Quoting wxhatt:


No, you are right they are. I think florida is going to be ok, but north of there may not!

LOL - let me guess where you think it's going.

Hahaha.
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Night everyone Emily is looking better in comparison to this morning, people were saying that it wouldn't be a storm until tomorrow, but these storms are very unpredictable.
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Quoting presslord:


and, most horrifying of all....no ice for my bourbon for weeks...



WORST OF ALL IS NO TOLIET
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675. ackee
seem like the model trending slighly west and south CUBA HATI even jamaica need watch this EMILY
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track is slightly to the right of the previous one.
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Quoting Dennis8:
Don brought me 3.40"-I do storm spotting for Tim Heller -Channel 13


I lived in Houston...went to Eisenhower HS...for my first 36 years and I like Tim. However, have to say that Frank Billingsley was my favorite when I moved to Plano two years ago. He did start out on channel 13 though...as back up for Ed Brandon.
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Quoting presslord:
and...it's 'you're'.....seriously....'you're'.....not 'your'.....it's 'you're....a contraction of 'you are'.....'you're'....
I tried with "its track" and "It's anybody's guess" last week.... didn't help much.... howareya, neighbour?
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Quoting shadoclown45:
what would happen if napalm or a nuclear device were detonated inside a hurricane or tropical storm would it tear the systems llc apart and incinerate the water vapor?
Why would you want to nuke a hurricane and spread radiation all over the place? It would only create a radioactive hurricane. Now napalm,thats the way to go. :)
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting Neapolitan:

Don't forget to mention looters, price gougers, fly-by-night contractors, instant insurance rate hikes, the lingering sense of unease that can last for weeks if not months...


and, most horrifying of all....no ice for my bourbon for weeks...
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Some Music For Emily Link
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.