Tropical Storm Emily forms from Invest 91L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 AM GMT on August 02, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily formed this afternoon after investigation by the Hurricane Hunters. While dodging the Lesser Antilles islands, the Hunters managed to find a closed surface circulation. Emily is currently located near 15.2°N, 62.0°W, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Thunderstorm activity has grown in size and intensity over the past 6 hours, and mid-level circulation is still elongated, but strong. The environment around Emily hasn't changed much from this morning. The moisture within the storm is still relatively high, although there continues to be a lingering dry, Saharan air mass to its north, which could become a factor in intensification. Wind shear is still high (30-40 knots) on the north side, as well.


Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 7:30pm EDT as it moves west into the Caribbean.

Forecast For Emily
The official track forecast is that Emily will continue to travel west-northwest through the Caribbean and cross Hispaniola Wednesday morning, after which it turns slightly more to the north for a potential landfall along the Florida east coast as a hurricane. Models continue to be split between Emily entering the Gulf of Mexico or recurving before making landfall along the East Coast. In the camp of an eastern Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models. The ECMWF has been trending that way, as well. The GFS continues to favor a northwest track towards Florida before taking a turn to the northeast. The HWRF has been forecasting an eastern coast of Florida solution, and continues to do so in the 12Z run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, but the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. As the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center illustrates, this is a U.S. landfall threat.


Figure 2. Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Emily will probably strengthen into a hurricane. In the 12Z runs, the GFDL brings Emily up to category 2 strength, and HWRF forecasts it to max out at category 1. DSHIPS (the SHIPS model that takes into account land interaction) forecasts maximum intensity of a moderate tropical storm. General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast.

Dr. Rob Carver might have an update later this evening, and I'll definitely be back tomorrow, early afternoon, with a new post on Emily.

Angela

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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


Nam is not a tropical model...

I still look at the NAM, more to see what is shows in the strength of the ridge. Not a great model, but shouldn't be discounted at this point in time.
Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267
765. DFWjc
Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


Im Sorry... I overreacted earlier... I live in Florida and i was trying to prove a point.. that most of us dont want hurricane's to make landfall on our houses... I have elderly parents... who depened on A/C and Electricity... Contrary to the Nutcase (JFV)... Us in Florida dont want a Hurricane to make landfall here...

I hope i didnt earn a spot on everyone's ignore list...

If it comes this way.. Id like to post video's of it..


How's Florida's water levels? I thought you were low, but not as low as Texas is...
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 1006
Just wanted to see the advisory, and post it :P
Good Night.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No toilet? No problem. If you don't like you're neighbors just do it in their front yard.

LMAO
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Quoting MrsOsa:


Nifty idea. We always fill the bathtubs with water for flushing but that doesn't work if you have a leaky drain! Found that out the hard way.


lol
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Quoting sunlinepr:
No prob. with toilet.... Go to the beach, dig a hole in the sand...


That's just disgusting...People walk on the beach without any shoes and...just, ewwwww....

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No toilet? No problem. If you don't like you're neighbors just do it in their front yard.


LOL!
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Will be on tomm am, talk about the farther west track It's gonna take. Plowing westbound at 17 you better believe that track is gonna change. Florida could actually be spared.
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Quoting Patrap:
How to Dig and Maintain a Latrine


Luckily, all the big home improvement stores around here carry lime, since the soil is so crappy. :)
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No toilet? No problem. If you don't like you're neighbors just do it in their front yard.


lmao
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 558 Comments: 20028
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hmm the NHC it not too sure on current position I still say its further south that what they have it at but we just have to wait for the HH to fly again I still expect track to shift west during the day on Tuesday and maybe more so on Wednesday
If it stays disorganized as it is, I agree with you.
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Quoting IFuSAYso:

Get an aqua pod, stores up to 100 gallons of potable water in a bathtub. (flushing, drinking, bathing, ...)


Nifty idea. We always fill the bathtubs with water for flushing but that doesn't work if you have a leaky drain! Found that out the hard way.
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Link

Aquapod.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Long before we get this far down the list.... NO A/C....


and the all canned meat you cant eat after the hurricane..how bout those vienna sausages..
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No toilet? No problem. If you don't like you're neighbors just do it in their front yard.
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Is there any chance this could get as far as the Caymans?
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Quoting twincomanche:
No it's hump the ridge.

indeed
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Quoting angiest:


Most of Florida is in the cone. No need to let your guard down.


Im Sorry... I overreacted earlier... I live in Florida and i was trying to prove a point.. that most of us dont want hurricane's to make landfall on our houses... I have elderly parents... who depened on A/C and Electricity... Contrary to the Nutcase (JFV)... Us in Florida dont want a Hurricane to make landfall here...

I hope i didnt earn a spot on everyone's ignore list...

If it comes this way.. Id like to post video's of it..
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 332
Quoting Ryuujin:


It's not, but it's done the best so far of all the models on 91/Emily.


It has been more trustable than GFS.... Specially with Don
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9737
Quoting twincomanche:
No it's hump the ridge.


No, it is pump the ridge unless it has been changed within the past week.
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Quoting sunlinepr:
No prob. with toilet.... Go to the beach, dig a hole in the sand...


hah, imagine the kid at the beach a few weeks later... "Hey mommy a baby ruth buried in the sand!" MOM: Oh my god!
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
The 11pm NHC track almost looks like it could be a rare Georgia storm.. undoubtedly it'll change quite a bit in the coming days, but still.. kind of interesting while it lasts, IMO.
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745. DFWjc
Quoting shoreacres:


Marvin Zindler, who put the Chicken Ranch out of business. ;)



Link

Here it is if no one's seen it, I grew up in Houston and I'll never forget that send off
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 1006
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
1100 PM AST MON AUG 01 2011

EMILY STILL HAS A RATHER DISHEVELED APPEARANCE IN GEOSTATIONARY
IMAGERY...AND THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A BIT OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS AND LACK MUCH IN THE WAY OF CURVATURE. BASED ON THE LACK OF
IMPROVEMENT IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
00Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM SAB. THE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AS SEEN BY THE COPIOUS
DRY AIR IN THE 00Z SAN JUAN RADIOSONDE AND SATELLITE PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY MODEST
STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IN FACT THE LATEST GFDL
MODEL RUN EVEN DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT TWO DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH
36 HOURS...AND THEN SHOWS WEAKENING AT 48 AND 72 HOURS AS EMILY IS
EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH HISPANIOLA. ASSUMING THAT EMILY RECOVERS
FROM INTERACTION WITH THE ISLAND...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
LATE IN THE PERIOD AND THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM.

THE CENTER HAS BEEN A BIT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE SINCE THE AIRCRAFT
DEPARTED...SO THE INITIAL POSITION AND INITIAL MOTION OF 275/15 ARE
QUITE UNCERTAIN AND BASED LARGELY ON CONTINUITY. OVERALL THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE RIDGE NORTH OF EMILY OVER THE
NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW EMILY TO TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
LATE IN THE PERIOD... THE MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH LIFTING OUT AND
SOME RIDGING RE-BUILDING NORTH OF EMILY. HOWEVER...BOTH THE
DETAILS OF THE RIDGE AND THE DEPTH OF THE CYCLONE APPEAR TO MAKE
ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK. FOR EXAMPLE...THE LATEST
GFS RUN HAS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE AND A MUCH DEEPER
REPRESENTATION OF EMILY THAT MOVES MORE NORTHWARD. THE HWRF AND
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO FOLLOW THIS GENERAL SCENARIO. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH WEAKER REPRESENTATION OF EMILY THAT
MOVES MORE WESTWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD UNDERNEATH A STRONGER RIDGE.
GIVEN THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TRACK FORECAST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NEW NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 72
HOURS...AND HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT TOWARD THE TVCA
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAYS 4 AND 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 15.5N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 15.9N 64.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 16.8N 67.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 17.8N 69.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 18.9N 71.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/0000Z 22.0N 75.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 06/0000Z 25.0N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 27.5N 80.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Not surprised that there is uncertainties in the models right now.
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How to Dig and Maintain a Latrine
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Quoting Dennis8:



WORST OF ALL IS NO TOLIET

Note to self. Buy shovel for emergency supplies.
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hmm the NHC it not too sure on current position I still say its further south that what they have it at but we just have to wait for the HH to fly again I still expect track to shift west during the day on Tuesday and maybe more so on Wednesday
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Quoting shoreacres:


Marvin Zindler, who put the Chicken Ranch out of business. ;)



Yeah I heard about that (loved Dom DeLouise playing him in the movie) but that happened before we moved to Houston I believe. :)
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Convection is blowing on the eastern end of Emily.
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Quoting RMM34667:


I can hear tons of crickets too... (in FL) For future reference is that an indication that a tropical cyclone (Storm or hurricane) will not come this way?? No need to buy extra batteries tomorrow?

TIA


Many people report that within 24-36 hours before a hurricane or strong tropical storm... they hear no crickets at night....

We are still 100 hours + away .. so i guess we wont know intill 1-2 days before landfall.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 332
Quoting Dennis8:



WORST OF ALL IS NO TOLIET


YES the infamous milk jug in the bathroom that you DO NOT OPEN unless necessary. Thankfully after Katrina we had connections with a business with a generator/water supply about a half mile down the road that you could 4wheel to for number 2. Cause otherwise it just gets nasty.
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No prob. with toilet.... Go to the beach, dig a hole in the sand...
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9737
a song for Emily
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Quoting presslord:


all is well here in Charleston....hope your good... ;-)
[thwacks presslord with a handy fish] please don't make me laugh.... it only hurts when I laugh.... lol

All is well here, and apparently going all to H*&L before the weekend is over.... unless of course that's YOUR weekend... or should I say you're weekend....;o)
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21643
Quoting BahaHurican:
Long before we get this far down the list.... NO A/C....


my Grandmother lived two days shy of 99 years in the same house on Queen St. here in Charleston without ever having air conditioning...I just don't know how the hell she did it...
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my favorite news station is KHOU in Houston, imo i like Gene Norman and miss Dr. Neil Frank!
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
Quoting presslord:
and...it's 'you're'.....seriously....'you're'.....not 'your'.....it's 'you're....a contraction of 'you are'.....'you're'....


Who are your comments addressed to about the use of your and you're?
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Quoting Torgen:


Good God, I remember the name Frank Billingsley from TV when I lived in Houston in the mid 80s. I heard the guy with the horrible white toupee and Roach Report died a few years ago. I can hear him now, but can't remember his name. He'd always yell his name in a sing-song signoff, with "EYEwitness News!"


MARVIN ZINDLER! hah, I remembered it!
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Quoting RMM34667:


I can hear tons of crickets too... (in FL) For future reference is that an indication that a tropical cyclone (Storm or hurricane) will not come this way?? No need to buy extra batteries tomorrow?

TIA


Most of Florida is in the cone. No need to let your guard down.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting patrikdude2:


Slight shift east in cone???


Wait I thought the center relocated to the east. So wait what's going on? Did it relocate or are people on here just speculating what they see?
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 203
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I'm in Largo which is not too far from Clearwater Beach, also keeping a close eye on Emily!


You probably won't have to worry anymore, the models have changed camp to the east. NHC just put out the new graphic and it it going north now. I think points north will have to watch out on the east coast though.

Most likely when HH aircraft data comes in again they will see the trough is pulling the storm to the north.
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 893
724. xcool
MeterologyStudent56 iknow :) but have to posting itt
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From the 11 pm discussion. I rest my case.

Emily still has a rather disheveled appearance in geostationary
imagery...and the cloud tops have warmed a bit over the past few
hours and lack much in the way of curvature. Based on the lack of
improvement in the satellite presentation...the initial intensity
estimate is held at 35 kt for this advisory in agreement with the
00z Dvorak intensity estimate from SAB. The atmospheric
environment near and ahead of the the cyclone appears to be only
marginally favorable for intensification
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Just models.... Too far away in time; with 91L and now Emily, Anything can happen...


Yeah, I know, will probably be major shifts with all the models. I watch every storm for work, but not pleased when my house is under the end of the run!
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Evening, WUblers,
Is that Martinique that is about to get slammed?
Dominica, maybe...bad flooding there already I heard


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Quoting Torgen:


Good God, I remember the name Frank Billingsley from TV when I lived in Houston in the mid 80s. I heard the guy with the horrible white toupee and Roach Report died a few years ago. I can hear him now, but can't remember his name. He'd always yell his name in a sing-song signoff, with "EYEwitness News!"


Marvin Zindler, of Slime in the Ice Machine fame, and before that, the Chicken Ranch. He is also largely responsible for bring sneeze guards to Houston area buffets.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting MeterologyStudent56:
Florida seems like it will dodge another storm............

Im sitting here in Florida and i can still hear the crickets... ......


I can hear tons of crickets too... (in FL) For future reference is that an indication that a tropical cyclone (Storm or hurricane) will not come this way?? No need to buy extra batteries tomorrow?

TIA
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Slight shift east in cone???
Member Since: July 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 225
Quoting Dennis8:



WORST OF ALL IS NO TOLIET

Get an aqua pod, stores up to 100 gallons of potable water in a bathtub. (flushing, drinking, bathing, ...)
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Quoting Dennis8:



WORST OF ALL IS NO TOLIET
Long before we get this far down the list.... NO A/C....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21643

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.