Tropical Storm Emily forms from Invest 91L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 AM GMT on August 02, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily formed this afternoon after investigation by the Hurricane Hunters. While dodging the Lesser Antilles islands, the Hunters managed to find a closed surface circulation. Emily is currently located near 15.2°N, 62.0°W, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Thunderstorm activity has grown in size and intensity over the past 6 hours, and mid-level circulation is still elongated, but strong. The environment around Emily hasn't changed much from this morning. The moisture within the storm is still relatively high, although there continues to be a lingering dry, Saharan air mass to its north, which could become a factor in intensification. Wind shear is still high (30-40 knots) on the north side, as well.


Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 7:30pm EDT as it moves west into the Caribbean.

Forecast For Emily
The official track forecast is that Emily will continue to travel west-northwest through the Caribbean and cross Hispaniola Wednesday morning, after which it turns slightly more to the north for a potential landfall along the Florida east coast as a hurricane. Models continue to be split between Emily entering the Gulf of Mexico or recurving before making landfall along the East Coast. In the camp of an eastern Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models. The ECMWF has been trending that way, as well. The GFS continues to favor a northwest track towards Florida before taking a turn to the northeast. The HWRF has been forecasting an eastern coast of Florida solution, and continues to do so in the 12Z run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, but the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. As the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center illustrates, this is a U.S. landfall threat.


Figure 2. Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Emily will probably strengthen into a hurricane. In the 12Z runs, the GFDL brings Emily up to category 2 strength, and HWRF forecasts it to max out at category 1. DSHIPS (the SHIPS model that takes into account land interaction) forecasts maximum intensity of a moderate tropical storm. General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast.

Dr. Rob Carver might have an update later this evening, and I'll definitely be back tomorrow, early afternoon, with a new post on Emily.

Angela

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1666. emguy
Quoting Randyman:


You talk about major drama...what if Emily behaves similarily to what the latest GFS is suggesting and takes a track close to that of the BAM-S? I think some folks on this blog would truly lose their mind...



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
346 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2011

...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK...BRINGING SOME SLIGHT RELIEF AS OUR HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S.


I believe what they are referencing in the erosion of the ridge is in relation to the trough split we may be seeing taking shape. If so, there will be an upper level low over the western gulf, which will still protect the Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama area from Emily...which will "if all this evolution proves true", be moving her way through the eastern quarter of the Gulf of Mexico toward the coast of Florida on her way to getting picked up and yanked out by the next trough. But on that note...Stay tuned....
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There's such a fascination with Katrina-- I personally think if a had to choose a perfect storm it would be Wilma

I'm mostly afraid one day we'll have something like Muifa (spelling?) where a storm blows up from Cat 1 to Cat 5 in less than 12hrs only it happen just before making landfall-- That would absolutely be worst case scenario in my opinion. Some day it'll happen and I pray I am long gone by then.
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Gustav may not have been Katrina but he was bad enough!

Emily sure is interesting.

I just wish this continual daily rain we have had for weeks would move on over to Texas and give them a break! I've had enough, lol.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Exactly. Even if this slips into the Gulf, I wouldn't expect significant development unless the death ridge magically disappears. This will prevent any explosive development.

Also it should be noted that should Emily remain out of the Gulf and go over the Bahamas/near the SE US coast/north of the greater Antilles area, it will still have the death ridge related subsidence, dry air, and upper level convergence to deal with.
Yup, the southeastern flank is where subsidence is located. Both Karl from last year and Ike from 2008 are prime examples.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Would be good with some live reports from the islands.

BahaHurrican and Pottery maybe will come on later.
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Quoting texwarhawk:

Death Ridge Dry Air (Skew-T from Coastal Corpus Cristi)



Skew-T from Corpus Christi



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Quoting FrankZapper:
can they become perfect this year?


They can become perfect in any year.
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1657. ackee
LOOKSlike EMILY centre relocate under heavy convection might bet she stays south of DR track near HATI AND CUBA AREA guess we see
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Quoting deaddude21:
If Emily gets in the Gulf...the waters are less than a degree cooler than 8/28/2005...same TCHP, loop eddy...anticyclone, so no shear...dry air could be a problem with the highs, but wasn't it a problem for Katrina as well?


That's why I said conditions aren't optimal to support Category 5's. The synoptic environment will not be anticyclonic in the Gulf. Does this look like an anticyclonic environment to you?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Because conditions were perfect. They will not be for Emily.
can they become perfect this year?
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Quoting deaddude21:

That ridge is centered over Texas and the N. Central Gulf Coast represents the SE periphery, it could get eroded much more easily than it could in Texas...obviously that's why Don went poof as it made landfall.


You talk about major drama...what if Emily behaves similarily to what the latest GFS is suggesting and takes a track close to that of the BAM-S? I think some folks on this blog would truly lose their mind...



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
346 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2011

...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK...BRINGING SOME SLIGHT RELIEF AS OUR HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
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Quoting FrankZapper:
Maybe he will ask lovejessicaa9 (Jason) for a date!


You know I really don't think it's jason-- the grammar is way to advanced (not to be mean or anything just making an observation)
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Exactly. Even if this slips into the Gulf, I wouldn't expect significant development unless the death ridge magically disappears. Should Emily remain out of the Gulf and go over the Bahamas/East coast it will still have the death ridge related subsidence, dry air, and upper level convergence to deal with.

Death Ridge Dry Air (Skew-T from Coastal Corpus Cristi)

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Quoting deaddude21:

JFV stalks women and asks out random women he doesn't even know but thinks are cute on Facebook.
Maybe he will ask lovejessicaa9 (Jason) for a date!
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Quoting deaddude21:

JFV stalks women and asks out random women he doesn't even know but thinks are cute on Facebook.


How old is JFV lol I was always thinking he was some 30yr old living in a basement with lots of acne and nothing better to do but troll.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


People still don't understand how the conditions for Katrina were practically as perfect as it gets for a hurricane.

Anyway, the Northern Gulf is closed for business as long as the death ridge is alive and well.
Exactly. Even if this slips into the Gulf, I wouldn't expect significant development unless the death ridge magically disappears. This will prevent any explosive development.

Also it should be noted that should Emily remain out of the Gulf and go over the Bahamas/near the SE US coast/north of the greater Antilles area, it will still have the death ridge related subsidence, dry air, and upper level convergence to deal with.
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Emily is pretty well organized now, I'm afraid. There is not even a hint of low level turning out ahead of the convection in RAMSDIS or shortwave imagery.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
Quoting deaddude21:

Then explain to me why two of them 175-mph babies formed in the same spot about a month apart?


Because conditions were perfect. They will not be for Emily.
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Quoting FrankZapper:
How much longer can it hold out. I'll take 98 degrees any day over a major hurricane.


Who knows...the South desperately needs it to break down though. We'll have to take our chances with the hurricanes. Unfortunately, we don't really get a choice. Since this death ridge pattern has lasted for at least 2-3 months, you would think the end of it is coming soon.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
Quoting texwarhawk:


Wouldn't Emily being on the edge of the TUTT (far enough away to not be sheered) be beneficial due to stronger instability and greater ventilation?
Sorry for my seemingly wavering responses. I've been posting while just going off my gut feeling on what should happen, not really looking at the models. After finally spending the time to look at the models, yes, you're right, the TUTT will be pulling out to the east which should allow the upper level anticyclone to build more over Emily over the next couple days while it is over the Caribbean. The real issue for Emily's upper level winds will be beyond day 3 when it gets underneath the northerly flow from the ridge over the US and the trough to the NE.

96 hr GFS 200mb wind streamlines at 0z




96 hr ECMWF 200mb wind streamlines at 0z




(open image in new tab to expand)
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Quoting MississippiWx:
This is stupid...now multiple models in the Gulf. I'll believe it when I see it...



This possible center relocation is going to throw the models for a loop anyway.
man wtf is going on!! how the hell is the models in the GOM. This storm i hope get ripped up into pieces when it goes over hati and the D.R. No disrespect to those people.
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Quoting deaddude21:

Obviously, but if Emily stays a TS and remains on a WNW course to the GOM and then all of a sudden becomes a hurricane we could have a Gustav on our hands. How are conditions now "much" different than what they were with Katrina? The SST's and TCHP are easily favorable to support a Cat. 5 ATM.


Gustav was no Katrina, last time I checked.

They are not "easily favorable" to support a Category 5. Do you realize how perfect conditions need to be in order to generate that kind of storm?
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Quoting FrankZapper:
Oh,OK. You have been able to put the hay back in the barn?
Are you optimistic about the rest of the season?
We finally have 100 year protection. All the Army Corp projects are finished!


Oh man I have a friend in Golden Meadow, LA-- after getting flooded in the 60's(???) the town paid to have a levee put up. The levee survived Gustav, Katrina, Rita, and a scare during Ike (or maybe Gustav or Katrina sorry its late), where the water was about 6" from topping the levee. But Army Corps wont certify it because it's only 13ft instead of the recommended 15ft. Kinda sad, but they are pretty well protected between the levees and the marsh (don't know how long they'll be there though).
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Quoting FrankZapper:
Oh,OK. You have been able to put the hay back in the barn?
Are you optimistic about the rest of the season?
We finally have 100 year protection. All the Army Corp projects are finished!


optomistic about rain, worried about the bubbacanes, and glad they are all finished, most of my favorite places over there are above sea level, but not above storm surge level.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


People still don't understand how the conditions for Katrina were practically as perfect as it gets for a hurricane.

Anyway, the Northern Gulf is closed for business as long as the death ridge is alive and well.
How much longer can it hold out. I'll take 98 degrees any day over a major hurricane.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
You know, I'm not too sure that the center ever relocated.

I think the NHC just had this moving way too fast. To be honest, I don't think Emily was ever moving at 17mph like the NHC is indicating.



so... what does this mean?
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Welcome back Kori!!


Thanks!
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Quoting StarnzMet:
Everyone relax! The models are going to constantly move during the next 24 hrs. By this time tomorrow night I believe we will have a better idea where Emily is going.


I think everyone here is relaxed. This is the relaxed crew, mainly because no one has enough energy to be anything else...
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
Quoting traumaboyy:


We been getting plenty of rain for weeks now...so we in good shape there.
Oh,OK. You have been able to put the hay back in the barn?
Are you optimistic about the rest of the season?
We finally have 100 year protection. All the Army Corp projects are finished!
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Quoting KoritheMan:


No we couldn't. Conditions now are MUCH different than they were with Katrina. Not to mention that the BAMS is predicated upon a weak system following the lower tropospheric flow. The "S" in the name means "shallow".


People still don't understand how the conditions for Katrina were practically as perfect as it gets for a hurricane.

Anyway, the Northern Gulf is closed for business as long as the death ridge is alive and well.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
Quoting MississippiWx:
A little off topic, but this is my forecast for Wednesday. UGH.


Wednesday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 101. Heat index values as high as 114. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph.

The death ridge is making its return here in Mississippi after a fairly long hiatus. We've had very rainy weather the past 3 weeks.


Oh man I know I complain about the heat and humidity here in Houston, but it's no where near what the other gulf coast states are dealing with inland
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Everyone relax! The models are going to constantly move during the next 24 hrs. By this time tomorrow night I believe we will have a better idea where Emily is going.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


No we couldn't. Conditions now are MUCH different than they were with Katrina. Not to mention that the BAMS is predicated upon a weak system following the lower tropospheric flow. The "S" in the name means "shallow".


Welcome back Kori!!
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TS.Emily's travel-speed slowed to 15.7mph(25.2k/h), and its heading of 278.6degrees(West)
is 1.5degrees more northward than its previous travel-direction.

Copy&paste 13.5n55.1w, 14.3n56.7w-15.0n58.5w, 15.0n58.5w-15.1n60.5w, 15.1n60.5w-15.3n62.2w, 15.3n62.2w-15.5n63.6w, dom, tza, 15.3n62.2w-17.49n88.19w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates for 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
TS.Emily was headed toward passing over BelizeCity,Belize ~4days7hours from now
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A little off topic, but this is my forecast for Wednesday. UGH.


Wednesday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 101. Heat index values as high as 114. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph.

The death ridge is making its return here in Mississippi after a fairly long hiatus. We've had very rainy weather the past 3 weeks.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
Quoting crunja:

Any chance it can hit D.C. ?


This I will guess on-- Most likely not. For it to hit DC it would have to
A.) Make landfall on the coast than only slightly re-curve and continue up the coast (best chance but not very strong)
B.) Turn north then get blocked and head back west (near 0% chance)
C.) Have another hurricane form to the north of it and go through the Fujiwara effect (Absolutely no chance and if it does happen I will literally eat a dead crow)
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Quoting deaddude21:
The BAMS spaghetti track is about the worst plot I've ever seen. Hardly takes Emily over any land in the Antilles and shoots it into the Central Gulf and perhaps finally NNE into NOLA, worst case scenario by far, if that were allowed to happen we could have Katrina all over again but worse.


No we couldn't. Conditions now are MUCH different than they were with Katrina. Not to mention that the BAMS is predicated upon a weak system following the lower tropospheric flow. The "S" in the name means "shallow".
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Quoting FrankZapper:
I think the panhandle should be OK unless things change drastically. Unfortunately you will be on the dry side and you may not get much drought relief.


We been getting plenty of rain for weeks now...so we in good shape there.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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