Tropical Storm Emily forms from Invest 91L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 AM GMT on August 02, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily formed this afternoon after investigation by the Hurricane Hunters. While dodging the Lesser Antilles islands, the Hunters managed to find a closed surface circulation. Emily is currently located near 15.2°N, 62.0°W, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Thunderstorm activity has grown in size and intensity over the past 6 hours, and mid-level circulation is still elongated, but strong. The environment around Emily hasn't changed much from this morning. The moisture within the storm is still relatively high, although there continues to be a lingering dry, Saharan air mass to its north, which could become a factor in intensification. Wind shear is still high (30-40 knots) on the north side, as well.


Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 7:30pm EDT as it moves west into the Caribbean.

Forecast For Emily
The official track forecast is that Emily will continue to travel west-northwest through the Caribbean and cross Hispaniola Wednesday morning, after which it turns slightly more to the north for a potential landfall along the Florida east coast as a hurricane. Models continue to be split between Emily entering the Gulf of Mexico or recurving before making landfall along the East Coast. In the camp of an eastern Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models. The ECMWF has been trending that way, as well. The GFS continues to favor a northwest track towards Florida before taking a turn to the northeast. The HWRF has been forecasting an eastern coast of Florida solution, and continues to do so in the 12Z run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, but the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. As the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center illustrates, this is a U.S. landfall threat.


Figure 2. Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Emily will probably strengthen into a hurricane. In the 12Z runs, the GFDL brings Emily up to category 2 strength, and HWRF forecasts it to max out at category 1. DSHIPS (the SHIPS model that takes into account land interaction) forecasts maximum intensity of a moderate tropical storm. General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast.

Dr. Rob Carver might have an update later this evening, and I'll definitely be back tomorrow, early afternoon, with a new post on Emily.

Angela

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Quoting stormhank:
I live up in north fla west of tallahasee n north of panama city..anyone think we'll get affected up this way??


I think you should be okay and not be affected.

Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 930
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11405
Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


Im Sorry... I overreacted earlier... I live in Florida and i was trying to prove a point.. that most of us dont want hurricane's to make landfall on our houses... I have elderly parents... who depened on A/C and Electricity... Contrary to the Nutcase (JFV)... Us in Florida dont want a Hurricane to make landfall here...

I hope i didnt earn a spot on everyone's ignore list...

If it comes this way.. Id like to post video's of it..
Unfortunately, there are a handful of nutcakes who seem to want hurricanes to come their way. Maybe they are roofers, or adjusters or own hardware stores.
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting texwarhawk:


Never heard that saying- where might that be if you don't mind me asking.

Over by Beaumont.
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Quoting tj175:
Guys chill out the track is gonna shift all week just like they always do. The main point is that Florida's East Coast is in the cone of uncertainty so just be prepared it's 5 days away so just chill out!!!!!!!!!!


:D Okay, Now that JFV went to Sleep... I think the Blog is Friendly and Fun now!
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811. yoboi
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No toilet? No problem. If you don't like you're neighbors just do it in their front yard.


just do what the navy seals do on a long mission wear depends........
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Quoting twincomanche:
No it's hump the ridge.


I thought it was something "foot bridge".. but I'm old my memory might be failing.
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809. P451
Quoting GHOSTY1:


I remember arguing this same topic in favor of nuking the storm (with no radiation, but got flak from this too) a few days ago and y'all are still on that topic, its not goin' to happen, soon anyways.


No, I just find it comical.

When in doubt - BOMB IT... no matter what "It" is the primary solution is always to BOMB IT.

As to the shock wave idea - creating a big blast of shear. I don't think it's possible to duplicate what nature throws at a storm in that way.

Any shock wave you put in there would be unlikely to destroy the convective process because it's a short lived shot and then everything is there to continue convection.

It's just not possible to do this.

We are better off letting nature do what it is going to do and instead focusing on how to prepare and help others that end up in harms way.

Right now we still have no idea how to help those who are struck by storms in a timely manner.

That is what we have to fix.
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Complete Update

The system following Emily looks decent also... Emily is in the Box, and going for Orange Juice

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





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TampaMishy, even if goes out to sea you better watch the rip currents they'll get you, be safe. (for anybody else who don't think something will happen i thought the same thing about man of war (which are like jellyfish, except their tentacle extended for just below a mile) and i got one that rapped around my legs in between my toes and fingers when i swam under water, luckily i got above the water before it got my face. The toxins and whatever caused my arms and legs to swell and made me feel like i was near to collape, but got to shore with no help to parents who thought i was just kidding. i listen to every and all warnings now too bad it had to come from this though)
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
Quoting texwarhawk:


It has rained twice at my house since I came home for summer in mid-May. Both storms lasted about 3min. I've seen it rain just down the street on the east side of HWY 6, just to the west and to the north, but it seems as soon as storms get near Sugar Land Airport they fizzle out and I'm left with the humidity without the cooling rain.


We've had boomers roll through here in Richmond VA this evening.



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Quoting BahaHurican:
They sounded like they quoted some of your earlier posts.... not surprised with this system... it's been doing this for the last 2-3 days.

Emily is cursed.
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Buoy Station 42060
16.333 N 63.500 W
Link

Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267
Quoting ncstorm:


and the all canned meat you cant eat after the hurricane..how bout those vienna sausages..
corn... winn dixie canned corn, canned peas, and corned beef... oh yeah....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22680
Quoting wxhatt:
I've noticed time and time again that the models start west and when they finally latch on to the data being extrapolated, the trend back to the east.



that's why statistically the east coast of florida has a lower impacts from tropical cyclones, and cape hatteras has a much higher strike rate.



Actually, you're wrong, Southeast Florida has had historically way more hurricane landfalls.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7948
Quoting LillyMyrrh:


I live in the Golden Triangle area of Texas.


Never heard that saying- where might that be if you don't mind me asking.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 203
Not to worry Jedkins.
It's headed into dry air and will be interacting with land. Not saying it's not a flooding problem for the Caribbean islands, just not a huge problem for Florida atm.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11405
799. tj175
Guys chill out the track is gonna shift all week just like they always do. The main point is that Florida's East Coast is in the cone of uncertainty so just be prepared it's 5 days away so just chill out!!!!!!!!!!
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It is called evacuation. If it is possible for you to do it, by all means do it. All this talk of riding out storms and bumming over lack of ice/water/AC/bathrooms, etc. is absurd. Property and material items are easily replaced. You have one life, protect it.
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Quoting K8eCane:
I always fill my washing machine too

That's creative.
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Quoting angiest:


Most of Florida is in the cone. No need to let your guard down.


I was kidding with you.. I actually think what I'm hearing is tree frogs.. Wonder if that will stop with an oncoming storm!
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Quoting MrsOsa:


I'm from the Gulfport/Biloxi, MS area


I live in the Golden Triangle area of Texas.
Member Since: September 8, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 47
So we're not looking at Rapid Intensification if Emily across Hispaniola. "Marginally Favorable" says it all.

Seriously thought we'd see a Westward shift in the models. I'm sure we'll see model flip-flop especially since we have a system having trouble getting it's center under deeper convection to it's Eastern-side & may have a "center relocation".

But it looks like the Ridge to Emily's North is starting the break down & allow her to move in a more W/NW direction in the short-term.

The dynamics are always changing.
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I live up in north fla west of tallahasee n north of panama city..anyone think we'll get affected up this way??
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Quoting MrsOsa:


Nifty idea. We always fill the bathtubs with water for flushing but that doesn't work if you have a leaky drain! Found that out the hard way.


That's where my pool comes in handy (except drinking water).
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I love when the blog is like this, no raised tempers, everyone is polite, it's just a very light mood in here- first time I've seen it all year- knock on wood.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 203
Quoting TampaMishy:
Good evening everyone! Looks like FL might be impacted this weekend? Any thoughts? I'm going Parisailing for my bday Saturday and I hope it doesn't come my way. :(


G A S P ! ! !
Mishy :)
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Ok guys, Emily is concerning me a little now, but there are many days to go, a lot could change, heck the storm could completely dissipate over Haiti before Florida has to even worry, or the computer models could completely change. We definitely got ourselves something to watch now, that is for sure.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7948
Quoting presslord:


my Grandmother lived two days shy of 99 years in the same house on Queen St. here in Charleston without ever having air conditioning...I just don't know how the hell she did it...
My grammy doesn't have it either... but then she lives on top of a hill... makes it a little easier to catch the breeze. Still...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22680
Quoting IceCoast:

I still look at the NAM, more to see what is shows in the strength of the ridge. Not a great model, but shouldn't be discounted at this point in time.


I agree Ice if you ignore whatever the NAM actually does with/to the system it still does a pretty good job imo of showing the movement of the main synoptic features.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 667
785. DFWjc
Quoting P451:


It just makes me laugh and think "Typical Human Response" when I think about how we think bombing a storm could somehow take care of it.

It reminds me of some cartoons I watched back in the 80s, maybe Voltron for all I remember, a tornado encrusted in lightning bolts was threatening the castle or town or whatever - and what do they do? Send out fighter jets to attack it with lasers.

I mean, LOL. Just too funny. And here we are as adults wondering if only we could nuke a hurricane out of existence.

Maybe if we spent more time setting up response plans - getting to people in less than one day after a region is hit hard - and within just a mere week being able to put peoples lives right back together .... instead of wasting money and ideas on that kind of crap, we'd be in a much better position.



During each hurricane season, there always appear suggestions that one should simply use nuclear weapons to try and destroy the storms. Apart from the fact that this might not even alter the storm, this approach neglects the problem that the released radioactive fallout would fairly quickly move with the tradewinds to affect land areas and cause devastating environmental problems. Needless to say, this is not a good idea.

Now for a more rigorous scientific explanation of why this would not be an effective hurricane modification technique. The main difficulty with using explosives to modify hurricanes is the amount of energy required. A fully developed hurricane can release heat energy at a rate of 5 to 20x1013 watts and converts less than 10% of the heat into the mechanical energy of the wind. The heat release is equivalent to a 10-megaton nuclear bomb exploding every 20 minutes. According to the 1993 World Almanac, the entire human race used energy at a rate of 1013 watts in 1990, a rate less than 20% of the power of a hurricane.

If we think about mechanical energy, the energy at humanity's disposal is closer to the storm's, but the task of focusing even half of the energy on a spot in the middle of a remote ocean would still be formidable. Brute force interference with hurricanes doesn't seem promising.

In addition, an explosive, even a nuclear explosive, produces a shock wave, or pulse of high pressure, that propagates away from the site of the explosion somewhat faster than the speed of sound. Such an event doesn't raise the barometric pressure after the shock has passed because barometric pressure in the atmosphere reflects the weight of the air above the ground. For normal atmospheric pressure, there are about ten metric tons (1000 kilograms per ton) of air bearing down on each square meter of surface. In the strongest hurricanes there are nine. To change a Category 5 hurricane into a Category 2 hurricane you would have to add about a half ton of air for each square meter inside the eye, or a total of a bit more than half a billion (500,000,000) tons for a 20 km radius eye. It's difficult to envision a practical way of moving that much air around.

Attacking weak tropical waves or depressions before they have a chance to grow into hurricanes isn't promising either. About 80 of these disturbances form every year in the Atlantic basin, but only about 5 become hurricanes in a typical year. There is no way to tell in advance which ones will develop. If the energy released in a tropical disturbance were only 10% of that released in a hurricane, it's still a lot of power, so that the hurricane police would need to dim the whole world's lights many times a year.
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784. P451
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
1100 PM AST MON AUG 01 2011

EMILY STILL HAS A RATHER DISHEVELED APPEARANCE IN GEOSTATIONARY
IMAGERY...



Doesn't sound too good for Emily right now. It should not be of surprise given how difficult it was for her to form after all these days. Whatever processes led to the hindered development are probably still present.

This is also reason to not look ahead very far in distance. Tonight's cone targeting SE Florida of as a Hurricane - probably shouldn't be taken too seriously right now.

Best one can do is watch and be prepared. Have your basic supplies - non-perishable and usable supplies - ready to go by tomorrow. If she comes, you're ahead of the game. If not, nothing goes to waste.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


That's just disgusting...People walk on the beach without any shoes and...just, ewwwww....



LOL!


You look for a private place, where it's not usual to see people walking around, around the bushes... Dig a hole 8 inches or more deep and cover it. No way someone could get to it...
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Good evening everyone! Looks like FL might be impacted this weekend? Any thoughts? I'm going Parisailing for my bday Saturday and I hope it doesn't come my way. :(
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I've noticed time and time again that the models start west and when they finally latch on to the data being extrapolated, they trend back to the east.



that's why statistically the east coast of florida has a lower impacts from tropical cyclones, and cape hatteras has a much higher strike rate.

Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 930
Quoting P451:


It just makes me laugh and think "Typical Human Response" when I think about how we think bombing a storm could somehow take care of it.

It reminds me of some cartoons I watched back in the 80s, maybe Voltron for all I remember, a tornado encrusted in lightning bolts was threatening the castle or town or whatever - and what do they do? Send out fighter jets to attack it with lasers.

I mean, LOL. Just too funny. And here we are as adults wondering if only we could nuke a hurricane out of existence.

Maybe if we spent more time setting up response plans - getting to people in less than one day after a region is hit hard - and within just a mere week being able to put peoples lives right back together .... instead of wasting money and ideas on that kind of crap, we'd be in a much better position.



I remember arguing this same topic in favor of nuking the storm (with no radiation, but got flak from this too) a few days ago and y'all are still on that topic, its not goin' to happen, soon anyways.
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Put it inside of a balloon and throw it at any passing cars?

Now I'm done.

Recon takes off in an hour...


Hey Miami,

If u can see this post...

Do you still think the track could shift back south? or do you see this shift as the beginning of a trend?
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We'll all be banned tomorrow if we do not get back on topic.

back to Tropical Storm Emily.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Looks like Martinique. I saw CRS had an earlier report from stormcarib.... I know we have at least one person from Martinique who posts in this blog...

Yeah, you can see it better on this loop.
Link
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11405
Quoting kmanislander:
From the 11 pm discussion. I rest my case.

Emily still has a rather disheveled appearance in geostationary
imagery...and the cloud tops have warmed a bit over the past few
hours and lack much in the way of curvature. Based on the lack of
improvement in the satellite presentation...the initial intensity
estimate is held at 35 kt for this advisory in agreement with the
00z Dvorak intensity estimate from SAB. The atmospheric
environment near and ahead of the the cyclone appears to be only
marginally favorable for intensification
They sounded like they quoted some of your earlier posts.... not surprised with this system... it's been doing this for the last 2-3 days.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22680
775. P451
Quoting yoboi:


japan already tried this in the 70's did not help matters


It just makes me laugh and think "Typical Human Response" when I think about how we think bombing a storm could somehow take care of it.

It reminds me of some cartoons I watched back in the 80s, maybe Voltron for all I remember, a tornado encrusted in lightning bolts was threatening the castle or town or whatever - and what do they do? Send out fighter jets to attack it with lasers.

I mean, LOL. Just too funny. And here we are as adults wondering if only we could nuke a hurricane out of existence.

Maybe if we spent more time setting up response plans - getting to people in less than one day after a region is hit hard - and within just a mere week being able to put peoples lives right back together .... instead of wasting money and ideas on that kind of crap, we'd be in a much better position.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


That's just disgusting...People walk on the beach without and...just, ewwwww....



LOL!


Blame it on their Dog.
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773. JRRP
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


That's just disgusting...People walk on the beach without and...just, ewwwww....
How about putting it inside of a balloon and throwing it at any passing cars?

Now I'm done.

Recon takes off in an hour...
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting kmanislander:
I'm out for tonight. Will be back tomorrow. Have a good evening everyone.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Just wanted to see the advisory, and post it :P
Good Night.


Night guys.
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Even thought the NHC Ctr says cloud tops warmed the last couple of hours, Emily has expanded in size & looks more cylindrical. This should help fight off the dry air.
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Quoting Chicklit:
Evening, WUblers,
Is that Martinique that is about to get slammed?
Dominica, maybe...bad flooding there already I heard


Looks like Martinique. I saw CRS had an earlier report from stormcarib.... I know we have at least one person from Martinique who posts in this blog...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22680
I'm out for tonight. Will be back tomorrow. Have a good evening everyone.
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I always fill my washing machine too
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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


Nam is not a tropical model...

I still look at the NAM, more to see what is shows in the strength of the ridge. Not a great model, but shouldn't be discounted at this point in time.
Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.