Tropical Storm Emily forms from Invest 91L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 AM GMT on August 02, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily formed this afternoon after investigation by the Hurricane Hunters. While dodging the Lesser Antilles islands, the Hunters managed to find a closed surface circulation. Emily is currently located near 15.2°N, 62.0°W, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Thunderstorm activity has grown in size and intensity over the past 6 hours, and mid-level circulation is still elongated, but strong. The environment around Emily hasn't changed much from this morning. The moisture within the storm is still relatively high, although there continues to be a lingering dry, Saharan air mass to its north, which could become a factor in intensification. Wind shear is still high (30-40 knots) on the north side, as well.


Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 7:30pm EDT as it moves west into the Caribbean.

Forecast For Emily
The official track forecast is that Emily will continue to travel west-northwest through the Caribbean and cross Hispaniola Wednesday morning, after which it turns slightly more to the north for a potential landfall along the Florida east coast as a hurricane. Models continue to be split between Emily entering the Gulf of Mexico or recurving before making landfall along the East Coast. In the camp of an eastern Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models. The ECMWF has been trending that way, as well. The GFS continues to favor a northwest track towards Florida before taking a turn to the northeast. The HWRF has been forecasting an eastern coast of Florida solution, and continues to do so in the 12Z run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, but the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. As the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center illustrates, this is a U.S. landfall threat.


Figure 2. Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Emily will probably strengthen into a hurricane. In the 12Z runs, the GFDL brings Emily up to category 2 strength, and HWRF forecasts it to max out at category 1. DSHIPS (the SHIPS model that takes into account land interaction) forecasts maximum intensity of a moderate tropical storm. General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast.

Dr. Rob Carver might have an update later this evening, and I'll definitely be back tomorrow, early afternoon, with a new post on Emily.

Angela

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866. KoritheMan
3:18 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting BrockBerlin:


Honestly I agree with a lot of your post here, however, that being said most of the models do not have her as that intense a storm when the trough hits her. It is very unlikely for her to rapidly intensify or even significantly intensify in her current condition, but realistically a slight pressure drop and she is essentially at the intensity that most of the models predict.


Of course. A lot also depends on the strength and amplitude of said trough, which isn't set in stone yet.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21304
864. hurricanejunky
3:18 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
I was thinking David 1979...

Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2899
863. GHOSTY1
3:17 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting texwarhawk:
I hate to say this and I might get banned or ignored for this but I think a lot of us are wishcasters. I, and I hope everyone else doesn't want anybody to be hurt by these storms or have anything destroyed, but I personally love seeing the power of these storms. I love when the crazy "meteorologists" on TWC go out to these coastal areas and show the power of the winds and rain. I feel bad that people get hurt but I find amazing fascination with the power of these storms. I kinda want the storms to hit land (don't kill me for this comment) just so I can see the power- ya fish storms are nice but you don't see the raw power. I think there are many like me, but its the unwritten rule not to speak of it. If I am all alone on this I'm sorry if I offended anybody by this comment, and if asked to leave I will go back to lurking for a few days.


If they do it to you they should me too i agree there's just something about the intensity of these storms that is mind capturing, but as you said no deaths
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
862. LillyMyrrh
3:17 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting Torgen:


Good God, I remember the name Frank Billingsley from TV when I lived in Houston in the mid 80s. I heard the guy with the horrible white toupee and Roach Report died a few years ago. I can hear him now, but can't remember his name. He'd always yell his name in a sing-song signoff, with "EYEwitness News!"


That was Marvin Zindler. He always seemed to be yelling something about "slime in the ice machine" when he did restaurant reports, too.
Member Since: September 8, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 47
861. HurricaneDean07
3:17 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Stormy2008, yes there was multiple vorticies, though none very strong at all, and Emily is beginning to give them the Cold shoulder and kicking them onto the curb, and going with her more dominant Circulation
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
860. Chicklit
3:16 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
well, emily finally found her mojo and looks like not heading for anything like real intensification, but pain in the neck for islands in its path.

meanwhile, back at cape verde, more 'mischief' as Levi puts it...
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
859. SouthDadeFish
3:16 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
I wouldn't be surprised to see a center relocation back towards to the east. There are extremely large bursts of convection going on in this side, with very cold cloud tops. Earlier recon multiple vorticies and nothing too well defined. Recon tonight should give us a better idea. Needless to say, she has come a long way since this morning.

Link
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
858. aspectre
3:16 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
15.3n60.5w and 91L have been re-evaluated&altered for the 12amGMT ATCF
15.1n60.5w and 15.3n62.2w are now both the most recent positions of TS.Emily


Copy&paste 13.3n54.0w, 13.5n55.1w-14.3n56.7w, 14.3n56.7w-15.0n58.5w, 15.0n58.5w-15.1n60.5w, 15.1n60.5w-15.3n62.2w, dom, svk, 15.1n60.5w-16.63n88.35w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates for 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
TS.Emily was travelling at 19mph(30.6k/h) toward landfall on MayaBeach,Belize ~3days16hours20minutes from now.
(And no, I haven't forgotten Roatangardener.)

A mapping of the NHC coordinates will be along when they have posted 5 PublicAdvisories...
...or earlier if landfall within 27hours appears plausible.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
857. ProgressivePulse
3:16 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting Jedkins01:
Ok guys, Emily is concerning me a little now, but there are many days to go, a lot could change, heck the storm could completely dissipate over Haiti before Florida has to even worry, or the computer models could completely change. We definitely got ourselves something to watch now, that is for sure.


US concerns start at splashdown, IMO. What's left after the crossing. NHC highlights that point and any models beyond the mountains are HIGHLY speculative. DR & Haiti have been very successful in destroying many of recent threats to the peninsula.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
856. MiamiHurricanes09
3:16 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting BrockBerlin:


Curious sir what connections do you have with UM? Alumni, Student, General Fan? (I am a UM met student btw which is why I am asking)
Absolutely none, LOL. been a canes fan for as long as I can remember, that's how I thought of the handle.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
855. GTcooliebai
3:16 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting Jedkins01:
Woah ok, just saw the latest model package, interesting.

Honestly though, with Emily moving due west right now, the latest models showing it going out to sea seems quite unlikely at this point.

Early on I was thinking it might go out to sea, but that was just a long term shot at nothing. Even though the models have all the sudden shifted back that way, going out sea looks less likely then ever to me unfortunately.
Hey Jedkins if you look at past tracks where Emily formed you can see most of them take it into the GOM, that would be a climotologically favored track. Not saying that's going to happen, just showing how rare it is to get a storm to recurve before striking the US at this time of the yr. Now also because it remains rather poorly organized with a possible center reforming near Martinique it will stay weak and continue moving more west as the steering suggests in the Caribbean at the moment. If it goes on to hit Haiti the storm will likely be disrupted staying weak and continuing on a westerly course.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
853. OUSHAWN
3:15 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting TampaMishy:
Good evening everyone! Looks like FL might be impacted this weekend? Any thoughts? I'm going Parisailing for my bday Saturday and I hope it doesn't come my way. :(


Well, here's wishing you an early Happy Birthday! Haven't seen you in quite a while. I do expect the track to change in some sort of way.
Member Since: September 20, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 44
852. lottotexas
3:15 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting angiest:
For those interested, I have written up my observations of some of the rivers in Texas during this past weekend's road trip. Clicking on my name should take you there.
Good report.We NEED RAIN
Member Since: December 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 54
851. DFWjc
3:15 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting GHOSTY1:
Man p451, you and DFW are just trying to drag me back into this, DFW i said no radiation, repeat "No Radiation." I goin to stop talking about this subject and hopefully yall stop too because im tired of arguing.


That's why i posted that to get an actual government agency to comment on how impossible it is... i was actually backing your point.
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 1006
Just curious....Did any of y'all read the part of the blog entry where Angela said this i gonna be a fairly minimal storm???
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Haiti Refugee Camp:

This might be worse than Jeanne for them...

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 332
I hate to say this and I might get banned or ignored for this but I think a lot of us are wishcasters. I, and I hope everyone else doesn't want anybody to be hurt by these storms or have anything destroyed, but I personally love seeing the power of these storms. I love when the crazy "meteorologists" on TWC go out to these coastal areas and show the power of the winds and rain. I feel bad that people get hurt but I find amazing fascination with the power of these storms. I kinda want the storms to hit land (don't kill me for this comment) just so I can see the power- ya fish storms are nice but you don't see the raw power. I think there are many like me, but its the unwritten rule not to speak of it. If I am all alone on this I'm sorry if I offended anybody by this comment, and if asked to leave I will go back to lurking for a few days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
LOL, Just realized that Emily is the first time ive seen Light red and white from convection blow ups on IR since Arlene this year...

Arlene: Moderate to Deep Convection
Bret: Moderate Convection
Cindy: Light to Moderate Convection
Don: Moderate Convection
Emily: Moderate to Deep Convection so far...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting Jedkins01:


Actually, you're wrong, Southeast Florida has had historically way more hurricane landfalls.
You should check out hurricanecity [I think it's them] to see their landfall database. I think Hatteras is actually #1 this year.... used to be Grand Bahama at one point...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
Hi Orca!
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1474
It would appear that we're getting several 'swirls' again... one of these days Emily might actually consolidate.


Link
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Quoting K8eCane:
I always fill my washing machine too
Hmmm.... never thought about that.... will do that if need be this time around.

Quoting TampaMishy:
Good evening everyone! Looks like FL might be impacted this weekend? Any thoughts? I'm going Parisailing for my bday Saturday and I hope it doesn't come my way. :(
Well, well, well.... look who looked into the blog.... good to see u mishy... hope the weather stays good for your bday...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
Quoting Jedkins01:
Woah ok, just saw the latest model package, interesting.

Honestly though, with Emily moving due west right now, the latest models showing it going out to sea seems quite unlikely at this point.

Early on I was thinking it might go out to sea, but that was just a long term shot at nothing. Even though the models have all the sudden shifted back that way, going out sea looks less likely then ever to me unfortunately. Like I said a lot could change, forecast confidence with this system is extremely low.


Remember these Models will go back in forth over the next 3 to 4 days. So just keep an eye on it.... Emily is moving west right now and thats all we know... Where she goes, only she knows if you know what I'm saying....

Taco :o)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3261
Man p451, you and DFW are just trying to drag me back into this, DFW i said no radiation, repeat "No Radiation." I goin to stop talking about this subject and hopefully yall stop too because im tired of arguing.
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
Surface observations and shortwave satellite imagery suggest that Emily's circulation is still not particularly well-defined. Closed, but broad. This is another reason not to expect significant intensification in the near-term. If she persists in being this weak, she might feel less pull from the western Atlantic trough.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21304
Well i'm interested in what the Global models show tonight. I'm assuming the data from the hurricane hunters has been inputed into the upcoming 00Z GFS?
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Major shift east in models, thus the NHC cone also shifts a bit eastward.




BEFORE (~8PM):




AFTER (~11PM):


Member Since: July 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 225
837. DFWjc
Quoting angiest:
For those interested, I have written up my observations of some of the rivers in Texas during this past weekend's road trip. Clicking on my name should take you there.


Interesting read about our rivers!!
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 1006
836. DFWjc
Quoting BrockBerlin:


Certainly I would not mind anything up a 90 mph Cat. 1 at this point (I should note that I live in The Woodlands, which is considerably inland so my attitude might be a little different were I by the coast (which I will be in 2 weeks when I head back to college).


But with that bloody "High" over Texas, we may not see the rain again for another month...
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 1006
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
This could turn out like Jeanne '04.


My thoughts as well, if the eastern high builds back at just the right time, bingo, Jeanne, without the loop d loop.
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For those interested, I have written up my observations of some of the rivers in Texas during this past weekend's road trip. Clicking on my name should take you there.
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
This could turn out like Jeanne '04.

Could anything turn out like Jeanne again?
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
Quoting lottotexas:

That would be Beaumont, Orange, Port Arthur.

Quoting bappit:

Over by Beaumont.


Thanks a lot. I have a cousin that lives just north of Beaumont on ~20 acres out in the woods up there. Went there after Rita back when I was in middle school (actually have the pictures from that day sitting next to me) and helped with clean up of his land. It was amazing how much trees were down. He still hasn't finished clearing out all of his trails yet- but then again after the storm they were all non-distinguishable.
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830. DFWjc
Quoting P451:


Excellent post, #785


Thanks, been reading about crazy possibilities that have been posted on here, thought i do some detective work!
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 1006
Quoting wxhatt:
I've noticed time and time again that the models start west and when they finally latch on to the data being extrapolated, they trend back to the east.



that's why statistically the east coast of florida has a lower impacts from tropical cyclones, and cape hatteras has a much higher strike rate.


Stop wishcasting....
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826. DFWjc
Quoting FrankZapper:
Unfortunately, there are a handful of nutcakes who seem to want hurricanes to come their way. Maybe they are roofers, or adjusters or own hardware stores.


Or people who haven't seen rain in 90+ days....
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 1006
Stormhank, possible, but at this point in time, we cant look to far out in forecasting Emily to be accurate, the Set up is much too fragile to forecast that far out...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
The eastern track out to sea will not hold. This storm is trucking west.

One good thing, this storm is moving fast. We won't have two weeks of insanity to argue over it. Come this weekend, we will know. My money is on the end of the deflector shield. Hurricane into Florida this weekend.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


We've had boomers roll through here in Richmond VA this evening.





Ya, they weather has been pretty wet in the area if I understand correctly. My GF is from Frederick, MD area and she's been getting excited about thunderstorms it seems almost daily. That's kinda different now that she's out on the OBX and she's still getting them.
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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


Hey Miami,

If u can see this post...

Do you still think the track could shift back south? or do you see this shift as the beginning of a trend?
Of course. Models will definitely continue to shift in all sorts of directions and as of right now the slight shift we saw amongst the models towards the right isn't a trend. We'll have a better idea as to where this system is going in 36-48 hours.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting texwarhawk:


Never heard that saying- where might that be if you don't mind me asking.

That would be Beaumont, Orange, Port Arthur.
Member Since: December 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 54
Quoting NOLALawyer:
It is called evacuation. If it is possible for you to do it, by all means do it. All this talk of riding out storms and bumming over lack of ice/water/AC/bathrooms, etc. is absurd. Property and material items are easily replaced. You have one life, protect it.


+infinity! But there is the mess of recovering afterwards with the lack of above mentioned luxuries. And those of us like myself who don't have the option of evacutating because of our employment. At that point it's just trying to find the safest place to ride it out and be prepared to be on your own for at least a week.
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This could turn out like Jeanne '04.
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Woah ok, just saw the latest model package, interesting.

Honestly though, with Emily moving due west right now, the latest models showing it going out to sea seems quite unlikely at this point.

Early on I was thinking it might go out to sea, but that was just a long term shot at nothing. Even though the models have all the sudden shifted back that way, going out sea looks less likely then ever to me unfortunately. Like I said a lot could change, forecast confidence with this system is extremely low.
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Quoting stormhank:
I live up in north fla west of tallahasee n north of panama city..anyone think we'll get affected up this way??


I think you should be okay and not be affected.

Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 930

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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