Tropical Storm Emily forms from Invest 91L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 AM GMT on August 02, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily formed this afternoon after investigation by the Hurricane Hunters. While dodging the Lesser Antilles islands, the Hunters managed to find a closed surface circulation. Emily is currently located near 15.2°N, 62.0°W, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Thunderstorm activity has grown in size and intensity over the past 6 hours, and mid-level circulation is still elongated, but strong. The environment around Emily hasn't changed much from this morning. The moisture within the storm is still relatively high, although there continues to be a lingering dry, Saharan air mass to its north, which could become a factor in intensification. Wind shear is still high (30-40 knots) on the north side, as well.


Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 7:30pm EDT as it moves west into the Caribbean.

Forecast For Emily
The official track forecast is that Emily will continue to travel west-northwest through the Caribbean and cross Hispaniola Wednesday morning, after which it turns slightly more to the north for a potential landfall along the Florida east coast as a hurricane. Models continue to be split between Emily entering the Gulf of Mexico or recurving before making landfall along the East Coast. In the camp of an eastern Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models. The ECMWF has been trending that way, as well. The GFS continues to favor a northwest track towards Florida before taking a turn to the northeast. The HWRF has been forecasting an eastern coast of Florida solution, and continues to do so in the 12Z run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, but the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. As the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center illustrates, this is a U.S. landfall threat.


Figure 2. Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Emily will probably strengthen into a hurricane. In the 12Z runs, the GFDL brings Emily up to category 2 strength, and HWRF forecasts it to max out at category 1. DSHIPS (the SHIPS model that takes into account land interaction) forecasts maximum intensity of a moderate tropical storm. General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast.

Dr. Rob Carver might have an update later this evening, and I'll definitely be back tomorrow, early afternoon, with a new post on Emily.

Angela

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Sure you got wishcasters on here, but I think the majority of people here are genuinely interested in hurricanes and fascinated by their power. I'm from Baton Rouge, so I really have no stake in what happens with Emily, but I'm enjoying reading different opinions about it because I find it interesting.
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Quoting wxhatt:
Even the GFS is showing it passing east of Florida and heading north.

What intensity does the GFS take that up too?
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Quoting MTWX:

Our area over here in know as the Golden Triangle too! Columbus, Starkville, and West Point, MS


I know there are several Golden Triangles in the US, and the world, for that matter. That's why I specified the one in TX...lol. I didn't know about the one in MS. I'll add it to my list. :)
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Quoting BrockBerlin:


I have mixed feelings towards this, as a weather freak I too enjoy the power of tropical cyclones. I remember standing outside my house during Ike (and sustained winds were only in the 60's with gusts in the 80s) and being amazed by its power, and honestly enjoying it. At the same time before moving to Texas I lived in a place called Violet Louisiana, Katrina wiped that town out and I will never forget having to relocate freshmen year of high school and spending the entire thanksgiving break shoveling muck out of my old house and seeing tons of memories completely destroyed. So in some ways I do enjoy their power, but also can relate to the emotions of losing almost everything.


Those of us who hang out on places like TVN during the spring have similar issues. And April 27th (among other days) was excrutiating.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Anti-Cyclonic flow continuing over Cindy. Lack of convection seems short lived looking at JSL. Fresh CIMSS up momentarily.


Cindy??
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Quoting MTWX:

Our area over here in know as the Golden Triangle too! Columbus, Starkville, and West Point, MS

The Golden Triangle is an area of Southeast Texas between the cities of Beaumont, Port Arthur, and Orange. The "golden" refers to the wealth that came from the Spindletop oil strike in Beaumont in 1901. More recently from the many gas flares that are located at all of the local oil refineries, which creates a rough triangular shape around the area when viewed from nighttime aircraft.
Member Since: December 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 54
Anti-Cyclonic flow continuing over Cindy. Lack of convection seems short lived looking at JSL. Fresh CIMSS up momentarily.
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Quoting taco2me61:


After I read this I just cannot understand why anyone could get hurt or even Killed by a storm that they know is coming from over 8 days away....

Yes I said 8 Days... But there are always that few that just will not leave... As for TWC and there crews, how many have you heard ever get hurt while a storm is coming a shore???? I can't remember any of them getting "Hurt"....

Just Food for Thought thats all....

Taco :o)


Taco, good answer anybody says they rode out (feel in name of storm here) and believe they can ride out the next one too are ignorant. If your storm savvy and know how to handle yourself your fine but most people don't know how to.
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
The government of Puerto Rico will be closed. I work for the private company and I will not go to work ..
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Quoting hurricanejunky:
Emily definitely keeping us guessing so far....models jumping around for a while now although now that it's a TS it should smooth out some. Florida in the discussion for now at least.
Hey, HJ.... we were talking about other storms that crossed Hispaniola all night. I don't like the post Hispaniola track one whit, but I'm hoping Emily gives her all before she even hits that fair isle... but we shall see...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I think an Emily (05) mixed with a little charliy (04)
Shh there is a lot of Tampa folks in here tonight, you don't want to get them to overly excited...and please no one post the NOGAPS model, that would really have them jump out of there seats.
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day is done. night has won.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11424
In other news...even at 52....Martha Quinn is still impossibly hotLink
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
Quoting texwarhawk:
I hate to say this and I might get banned or ignored for this but I think a lot of us are wishcasters. I, and I hope everyone else doesn't want anybody to be hurt by these storms or have anything destroyed, but I personally love seeing the power of these storms. I love when the crazy "meteorologists" on TWC go out to these coastal areas and show the power of the winds and rain. I feel bad that people get hurt but I find amazing fascination with the power of these storms. I kinda want the storms to hit land (don't kill me for this comment) just so I can see the power- ya fish storms are nice but you don't see the raw power. I think there are many like me, but its the unwritten rule not to speak of it. If I am all alone on this I'm sorry if I offended anybody by this comment, and if asked to leave I will go back to lurking for a few days.
Maybe one day you will get to experience your wish. You will be on a barrier island as a strong one approaches. You will hop into your trusty SUV to move to higher ground only to find the bridge already impassable. Now you will get to experience that raw power firsthand!
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
899. auburn (Mod)
Hey guys this might be a good tool to use to show what you think canes might do this season..just an idea..

http://www.scribblemaps.com/#lat=42.314111&lng=-8 3.036825&z=3&t=Map&y=0&p=0

scribblemaps(you can draw on maps and then post the pic)
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Even the GFS is showing it passing east of Florida and heading north.

Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 930
Quoting GHOSTY1:


If they do it to you they should me too i agree there's just something about the intensity of these storms that is mind capturing, but as you said no deaths


After I read this I just cannot understand why anyone could get hurt or even Killed by a storm that they know is coming from over 8 days away....

Yes I said 8 Days... But there are always that few that just will not leave... As for TWC and there crews, how many have you heard ever get hurt while a storm is coming a shore???? I can't remember any of them getting "Hurt"....

Just Food for Thought thats all....

Taco :o)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3261
Quoting LillyMyrrh:


That was Marvin Zindler. He always seemed to be yelling something about "slime in the ice machine" when he did restaurant reports, too.


I had the unfortunate experience of slime in the ice machine in a Lakeland, FL Subway, and the staff looked at me like I was an alien for complaining about it oozing around in my cup. I'm just glad it was a self-serve soda situation, else I'd have never known until it was too late. Ewww.
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895. MTWX
Quoting LillyMyrrh:


The Golden Triangle is an area of Southeast Texas between the cities of Beaumont, Port Arthur, and Orange.

Our area over here in know as the Golden Triangle too! Columbus, Starkville, and West Point, MS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
894. DFWjc
Quoting BrockBerlin:


I have mixed feelings towards this, as a weather freak I too enjoy the power of tropical cyclones. I remember standing outside my house during Ike (and sustained winds were only in the 60's with gusts in the 80s) and being amazed by its power, and honestly enjoying it. At the same time before moving to Texas I lived in a place called Violet Louisiana, Katrina wiped that town out and I will never forget having to relocate freshmen year of high school and spending the entire thanksgiving break shoveling muck out of my old house and seeing tons of memories completely destroyed. So in some ways I do enjoy their power, but also can relate to the emotions of losing almost everything.


Would that be the same for people who chase Tornadoes and get all jumping up and down excited, but then Joplin happens?
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 1006
Quoting FrankZapper:
Unfortunately, there are a handful of nutcakes who seem to want hurricanes to come their way. Maybe they are roofers, or adjusters or own hardware stores.


I have never wished that on anyone and don't know anyone that would. There are just plain old dumb nutcakes that want this but it don't always have to be blamed on roofers,adjuster,hardware stores. I hate to see where good folks have lost just about everything. I worked Ike and it was just tear jerking at some of the folks I meet that all they had was a foundation left, like over there at Sabine Pass and alot of other places. So NO i don't wish or want disaster to happen to anyone. We do care more than some folks give us credit for.

sheri

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Quoting presslord:
Just curious....Did any of y'all read the part of the blog entry where Angela said this i gonna be a fairly minimal storm???


Yeah, but uh, we've heard that before. Charley was supposed to be a Cat 1 or 2 making landfall in Tampa.
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Member Since: July 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 225
Quoting Jedkins01:


Actually, you're wrong, Southeast Florida has had historically way more hurricane landfalls.


Actually, this is from the NOAA Technical Report:

"Cape Hatteras. The high frequency of storm entries just south of Cape
Hatteras, N.C. (1.6 storms per 10 n.mi. per 100 years).
origin that move in a northerly direction after recurvature. Almost 90% of
the storms entered the North Carolina coast, south of Cape Hatteras, in a northeasterly direction."

Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 930
Quoting MeterologyStudent56:
Next models come out at 2 AM right?

3/4ish sounds more like it
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Quoting hurricanejunky:
I was thinking David 1979...

Yeah, but that is a strong storm and it happened a month later. Lots of dry air ahead of Emily which may keep it at bay, if it manages to survive the trek across Haiti, it would really have to ramp up to feel that trough because if it doesn't it would continue west. I know it sounds like I'm west-casting, but the rule of thumb is for a stronger storm to feel the weakness in a Ridge & follow the path of least resistance.
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Quoting Patrap:
Its kinda a simple word "Mischief",,for what can come from it.




yuh, like that little bit of slime the cat in the hat leaves in the bathtub that ends up covering everything...
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11424
885. DFWjc
Quoting GHOSTY1:
DFW, it kinda looks a vampire, maybe it sometype of warning...hmmmmmmmm.


I won't say no more for fear of it.. :*(
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 1006
Quoting bappit:

Over by Beaumont.

B-Town that's where I'm from. Grew up there, don't miss the place at all either.
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Quoting patrikdude2:
Major shift east in models, thus the NHC cone also shifts a bit eastward.




BEFORE (~8PM):




AFTER (~11PM):



That last model run gave me a big sigh of relief. I just hope the models start wagging like my dogs tail.
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Quoting texwarhawk:
I hate to say this and I might get banned or ignored for this but I think a lot of us are wishcasters. I, and I hope everyone else doesn't want anybody to be hurt by these storms or have anything destroyed, but I personally love seeing the power of these storms. I love when the crazy "meteorologists" on TWC go out to these coastal areas and show the power of the winds and rain. I feel bad that people get hurt but I find amazing fascination with the power of these storms. I kinda want the storms to hit land (don't kill me for this comment) just so I can see the power- ya fish storms are nice but you don't see the raw power. I think there are many like me, but its the unwritten rule not to speak of it. If I am all alone on this I'm sorry if I offended anybody by this comment, and if asked to leave I will go back to lurking for a few days.


That... might not go over well with some of the people here. A lot, actually.

One very interesting aspect of tropical cyclones is the subtle, distinct difference between non-tropical and tropical rains. The latter produces a much different feel in the air than does the former. I've always found that the most fascinating aspect of these storms. Anyone who has been through one though, will know what I'm talking about.

The important thing to keep in mind is, you should never actually feel guilty for wanting to experience the power of a storm. It's not your fault that people die. It would be one thing if it was in your control, but it's not. One's wishes have no implications at all on what actually happens, thankfully.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21333
881. DFWjc
Quoting FloridaTigers:


>not being an FIU fan

I seriously hope you guys don't do this.


Wait is there another college football team in Florida worth anything?
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 1006
Emily definitely keeping us guessing so far....models jumping around for a while now although now that it's a TS it should smooth out some. Florida in the discussion for now at least.
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Quoting presslord:
Just curious....Did any of y'all read the part of the blog entry where Angela said this i gonna be a fairly minimal storm???
Why would we want to do that???

lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
Quoting BahaHurican:
My grammy doesn't have it either... but then she lives on top of a hill... makes it a little easier to catch the breeze. Still...
I doubt they experienced the kind of heat that's been hangin' round. Many heat related records are getting broken across much of the country.
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DFW, it kinda looks a vampire, maybe it sometype of warning...hmmmmmmmm.
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
Next models come out at 2 AM right?
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 332
Quoting NOLALawyer:
It is called evacuation. If it is possible for you to do it, by all means do it. All this talk of riding out storms and bumming over lack of ice/water/AC/bathrooms, etc. is absurd. Property and material items are easily replaced. You have one life, protect it.


The expression here is, hide from wind - run from water. 2.5 million people in Dade County. Throw in the surrounding counties and everyone trying to evacuate is a recipe for disaster. Yes wind can do lots of damage (re: Andrew) but most loss of life and damage is from surge.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Absolutely none, LOL. been a canes fan for as long as I can remember, that's how I thought of the handle.


>not being an FIU fan

I seriously hope you guys don't do this.
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873. DFWjc
After 2 years I still have nightmares from TMish's Troll in her pic...
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 1006
Thanks oushawn
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1474
Danngggggg, talk about RI, David was a beast, man he just went super saiyan! (if anybody knows about that)
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
I think an Emily (05) mixed with a little charliy (04)
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Stormy2008, yes there was multiple vorticies, though none very strong at all, and Emily is beginning to give them the Cold shoulder and kicking them onto the curb, and going with her more dominant Circulation


how very fickle and weather-like of her

night all. don't let the drama get you down!
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11424
Quoting texwarhawk:


Never heard that saying- where might that be if you don't mind me asking.


The Golden Triangle is an area of Southeast Texas between the cities of Beaumont, Port Arthur, and Orange.
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Its kinda a simple word "Mischief",,for what can come from it.



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Quoting BrockBerlin:


Honestly I agree with a lot of your post here, however, that being said most of the models do not have her as that intense a storm when the trough hits her. It is very unlikely for her to rapidly intensify or even significantly intensify in her current condition, but realistically a slight pressure drop and she is essentially at the intensity that most of the models predict.


Of course. A lot also depends on the strength and amplitude of said trough, which isn't set in stone yet.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21333

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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