Tropical Storm Emily forms from Invest 91L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 AM GMT on August 02, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily formed this afternoon after investigation by the Hurricane Hunters. While dodging the Lesser Antilles islands, the Hunters managed to find a closed surface circulation. Emily is currently located near 15.2°N, 62.0°W, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Thunderstorm activity has grown in size and intensity over the past 6 hours, and mid-level circulation is still elongated, but strong. The environment around Emily hasn't changed much from this morning. The moisture within the storm is still relatively high, although there continues to be a lingering dry, Saharan air mass to its north, which could become a factor in intensification. Wind shear is still high (30-40 knots) on the north side, as well.


Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 7:30pm EDT as it moves west into the Caribbean.

Forecast For Emily
The official track forecast is that Emily will continue to travel west-northwest through the Caribbean and cross Hispaniola Wednesday morning, after which it turns slightly more to the north for a potential landfall along the Florida east coast as a hurricane. Models continue to be split between Emily entering the Gulf of Mexico or recurving before making landfall along the East Coast. In the camp of an eastern Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models. The ECMWF has been trending that way, as well. The GFS continues to favor a northwest track towards Florida before taking a turn to the northeast. The HWRF has been forecasting an eastern coast of Florida solution, and continues to do so in the 12Z run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, but the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. As the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center illustrates, this is a U.S. landfall threat.


Figure 2. Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Emily will probably strengthen into a hurricane. In the 12Z runs, the GFDL brings Emily up to category 2 strength, and HWRF forecasts it to max out at category 1. DSHIPS (the SHIPS model that takes into account land interaction) forecasts maximum intensity of a moderate tropical storm. General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast.

Dr. Rob Carver might have an update later this evening, and I'll definitely be back tomorrow, early afternoon, with a new post on Emily.

Angela

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12 Hrs

Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267
Well, Good Night Everyone!
Tropics Wake up forecast:
TS Emily 40 to 50 mph
Hurricane Eugene at 85 mph Cat. 1

That's All FOLKS!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:
day is done. night has won.
It's interesting to look at that image and see the faint shadow of clouds encircling what should be the western semicircle of this storm...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736


I expect Emily to become a 60-70 MPH Tropical storm by tomorrow morning. It looks good on satellite.
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Emily still has a left over mid-level circulation to the east of the surface center, which displays her continued disorganization. Convection keeps firing, but for now remains east of the center. She'll need to get stacked and more symmetric before significant strengthening can occur.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ryuujin:
The 00z models are the worst ones, aren't they? Use old data or something like that? Isn't that what I've heard?

I could be wrong, but i thought the 00z models were considered more reliable. Either way this should have data that the hurricane hunters collected today, which is a big plus.
Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267
Quoting KoritheMan:


Howdy, neighbor! I'm in Prairieville myself.


Howdy!

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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Hey your doing a good job, can't help myself at the moment.



Find a way to deal with it. There is nothing funny about it.
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Quoting GHOSTY1:


Back off, that is our own choices and that's what we'll do and no one said we would run if we stay were not goin to go runnin' when it's to late and we'll know when its too late.
The one thing about all the fantasy talk is that mother nature doesn't listen to it. Or does she? Here's to all your dreams comming true!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
T.C.F.W.
05L/TS/E/CX
MARK
15.65N/63.13W
TRACK
15.8N/64.7W
16.3N/65.3W
16.8N/65.9W
17.1N/66.3W
17.7N/66.8W
18.2N/67.3W


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
There is a HUGE difference in driving to a hurricane, getting video, enjoying the adrenaline surge, marveling in the fury of nature, then getting in your car to drive out of the area to your comfy home, than living through one in your house, cringing with every bump, wondering when it will finally end, worrying about your family and friends in their houses, and then dealing with the aftermath.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting GHOSTY1:


If they do it to you they should me too i agree there's just something about the intensity of these storms that is mind capturing, but as you said no deaths
I agree that is wish-casting. I don't know of a storm that didn't inflict death in some form. Many stop at people, property, and pets. I guess the difference is that nature has been living with itself for a very long time, we humans don't have that kind of history.
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Quoting farhaonhebrew:
The government of Puerto Rico will be closed. I work for the private company and I will not go to work ..

Vacations!!!!
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949. j2008
Quoting JLPR2:


I'm guessing new center? That's pretty deep convection.
That or displaced mid-level center.

Looks like a COC so I'd say it is one, Emily is banding quite well now. It looks like its going for another hit down there.
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Quoting DFWjc:


Would that be the same for people who chase Tornadoes and get all jumping up and down excited, but then Joplin happens?


Well yes kind of. I have been tornado chasing (actually got chased and hit by one and ended up laying in a ditch) and it's about seeing it first hand. Now I would never wish anything like Joplin ever- or any town for that matter.

But tornadoes are different. You can experience an EF-5 tearing apart fields and have no one affected, you can't really experience a Cat. 5 in the open Atlantic first hand (easily).
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 203
Quoting GHOSTY1:


Taco, good answer anybody says they rode out (feel in name of storm here) and believe they can ride out the next one too are ignorant. If your storm savvy and know how to handle yourself your fine but most people don't know how to.


I agree with you.... Now yes I have rode out a few storms in my time but I am also smart enough to know which ones to ride and which ones to "Run Like Hell From" .... (Insurt Katrina & Ivan)

But then there are just that few and of course thats the ones we have to pull out of a house or dig there Bodies Out of the rubble....

Taco :o)
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-899 auburn..those maps are great, thanks for posting it. Clicked on my location and the map zoomed into my front yard....awesome post! Try it out.Back to Emily..
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Quoting Ryuujin:
The 00z models are the worst ones, aren't they? Use old data or something like that? Isn't that what I've heard?


No. 0z and 12z cycles are typically best.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21333
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Hey Jedkins if you look at past tracks where Emily formed you can see most of them take it into the GOM, that would be a climotologically favored track. Not saying that's going to happen, just showing how rare it is to get a storm to recurve before striking the US at this time of the yr. Now also because it remains rather poorly organized with a possible center reforming near Martinique it will stay weak and continue moving more west as the steering suggests in the Caribbean at the moment. If it goes on to hit Haiti the storm will likely be disrupted staying weak and continuing on a westerly course.


Yeah a lot of uncertainly that is for sure, I agree though that computer models bringing it out to sea seems rather unlikely now. I don't see why it will suddenly take sharp turn northward out of the Caribbean and then out to sea. For it do so, I'm pretty sure it would have to get very strong in the next day or 2.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8029
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Glad I could make you laugh?
Hey your doing a good job, can't help myself at the moment.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting GTcooliebai:
What intensity does the GFS take that up too?


I believe just a tropical storm at that point.
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 930
Quoting stormhank:
Is it possible Emily could still make it into the GOM??
Possible? yes it's possible. I would think if it got into GOM, it would be a west coast of florida storm JMO
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937. xcool
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Convergence re-establishing itself.

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if there weren't any of us who knew how to handle ourselves and brave the storms there would probably be quite a few more fatalities of the people who stayed just being ignorant, i guess you could call us not in a literal term "the first responders" to the disaster at hand
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
Quoting IceCoast:
00z GFS Coming in
A very good initialization. Let's see how this run does.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
932. MTWX
Quoting lottotexas:

The Golden Triangle is an area of Southeast Texas between the cities of Beaumont, Port Arthur, and Orange. The "golden" refers to the wealth that came from the Spindletop oil strike in Beaumont in 1901. More recently from the many gas flares that are located at all of the local oil refineries, which creates a rough triangular shape around the area when viewed from nighttime aircraft.

Interesting to know.... I actually know that area quite well. I have friends that live in Orange.
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Quoting twooks:
Sure you got wishcasters on here, but I think the majority of people here are genuinely interested in hurricanes and fascinated by their power. I'm from Baton Rouge, so I really have no stake in what happens with Emily, but I'm enjoying reading different opinions about it because I find it interesting.


Howdy, neighbor! I'm in Prairieville myself.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21333
The 00z models are the worst ones, aren't they? Use old data or something like that? Isn't that what I've heard?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
929. JLPR2


I'm guessing new center? That's pretty deep convection.
That or displaced mid-level center.
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Quoting angiest:


Nice quote of the Wikipedia article. ;)
Best place to get them.
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Quoting BrockBerlin:


But hey then you could show them the NOGAPS track record that would ease their concerns :P
True, it would get them up out there seats, just to sit right back down, lol
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting GTcooliebai:
LOL



Glad I could make you laugh?
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00z GFS Coming in
Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


I have never wished that on anyone and don't know anyone that would. There are just plain old dumb nutcakes that want this but it don't always have to be blamed on roofers,adjuster,hardware stores. I hate to see where good folks have lost just about everything. I worked Ike and it was just tear jerking at some of the folks I meet that all they had was a foundation left, like over there at Sabine Pass and alot of other places. So NO i don't wish or want disaster to happen to anyone. We do care more than some folks give us credit for.

sheri




AMEN
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Quoting FrankZapper:
Maybe one day you will get to experience your wish. You will be on a barrier island as a strong one approaches. You will hop into your trusty SUV to move to higher ground only to find the bridge already impassable. Now you will get to experience that raw power firsthand!


LOL Well I definatly wouldn't mind being in San Luis hotel in Galveston as a Cat. 3 approaches.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 203
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Quoting FrankZapper:
Maybe one day you will get to experience your wish. You will be on a barrier island as a strong one approaches. You will hop into your trusty SUV to move to higher ground only to find the bridge already impassable. Now you will get to experience that raw power firsthand!


Back off, that is our own choices and that's what we'll do and no one said we would run if we stay were not goin to go runnin' when it's to late and we'll know when its too late.
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Anti-Cyclonic flow continuing over Cindy. Lack of convection seems short lived looking at JSL. Fresh CIMSS up momentarily.
LOL
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting BrockBerlin:


I have mixed feelings towards this, as a weather freak I too enjoy the power of tropical cyclones. I remember standing outside my house during Ike (and sustained winds were only in the 60's with gusts in the 80s) and being amazed by its power, and honestly enjoying it. At the same time before moving to Texas I lived in a place called Violet Louisiana, Katrina wiped that town out and I will never forget having to relocate freshmen year of high school and spending the entire thanksgiving break shoveling muck out of my old house and seeing tons of memories completely destroyed. So in some ways I do enjoy their power, but also can relate to the emotions of losing almost everything.


Well I understand that completely. They are amazing but like any type of severe storm- must be respected. One of the things I disagree with local meteorologists here in Houston and probably across the US is the saying "Run from the water, Hide from the wind." It may seem like a great statement and is great for most storms, but in my eyes anything above a strong Cat. 3 and chances are you don't want to be there.
Now we saw what happened here in Houston with Rita (I was in that mess too) and I don't want that to happen, but 24hrs before hurricane is predicted to strike, when all the coastal residents are out, I believe those who are still inland (only if >Cat. 3) should leave, because in my eyes very few houses are safe in that situation, and it is defiantly not a pleasant situation to be in.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 203
Quoting lottotexas:

The Golden Triangle is an area of Southeast Texas between the cities of Beaumont, Port Arthur, and Orange. The "golden" refers to the wealth that came from the Spindletop oil strike in Beaumont in 1901. More recently from the many gas flares that are located at all of the local oil refineries, which creates a rough triangular shape around the area when viewed from nighttime aircraft.


Nice quote of the Wikipedia article. ;)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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