Tropical Storm Emily forms from Invest 91L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 AM GMT on August 02, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily formed this afternoon after investigation by the Hurricane Hunters. While dodging the Lesser Antilles islands, the Hunters managed to find a closed surface circulation. Emily is currently located near 15.2°N, 62.0°W, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Thunderstorm activity has grown in size and intensity over the past 6 hours, and mid-level circulation is still elongated, but strong. The environment around Emily hasn't changed much from this morning. The moisture within the storm is still relatively high, although there continues to be a lingering dry, Saharan air mass to its north, which could become a factor in intensification. Wind shear is still high (30-40 knots) on the north side, as well.


Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 7:30pm EDT as it moves west into the Caribbean.

Forecast For Emily
The official track forecast is that Emily will continue to travel west-northwest through the Caribbean and cross Hispaniola Wednesday morning, after which it turns slightly more to the north for a potential landfall along the Florida east coast as a hurricane. Models continue to be split between Emily entering the Gulf of Mexico or recurving before making landfall along the East Coast. In the camp of an eastern Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models. The ECMWF has been trending that way, as well. The GFS continues to favor a northwest track towards Florida before taking a turn to the northeast. The HWRF has been forecasting an eastern coast of Florida solution, and continues to do so in the 12Z run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, but the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. As the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center illustrates, this is a U.S. landfall threat.


Figure 2. Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Emily will probably strengthen into a hurricane. In the 12Z runs, the GFDL brings Emily up to category 2 strength, and HWRF forecasts it to max out at category 1. DSHIPS (the SHIPS model that takes into account land interaction) forecasts maximum intensity of a moderate tropical storm. General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast.

Dr. Rob Carver might have an update later this evening, and I'll definitely be back tomorrow, early afternoon, with a new post on Emily.

Angela

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1016. Skyepony (Mod)
Just tripping back into society, hadn't realized 91L had various models run over the last 5 days & early tracks every day. Looks like LGEM is in the lead with error in nm~ 24hr 115.2, 48hr 204.4, 72hr 217.3, 96hr 18.5 & 120hr 198.9. They've been feeding it to SHIP & DSHP. OFCL is very similar & currently in a tight place with 118.2 at 24hr & 143.0nm error at 120hrs. As far as where, the models have done poor so far with this storm, not surprising for all the disorganization. Biggest loser was BAMD.

Intensity wise HWRF is ahead of the rest~ 5kt error at 48hr & -2 at 72hrs. Nearly all the rest have underestimated the intensity so far.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
You people are forgetting about Haiti....

When you say its going to die over the Mountains of Hispanola... that means their are going to be landslides and mountainslides and they will kill alot of people
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 332
You can wishcast all you want...but put your money where your thoughts are. Would you still want to see the raw energy if you knew it would wind up costing you $10,000? Or worse, an injury to a family member?
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Levi32 i tihnk here center is refrom under the deeper t-storms what you think? and its geting big
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1012. angiest
This could get interesting:

Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
1011. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting beell:


A track out of the Caribbean and east of the Bahamas does not guarantee a track out to sea.
is that you're hurricane outfit i see on the avatar
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1010. Seastep
Great post, Ms. Angela.

Please no offense Doc Rob, but I want Angela.
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1009. Buhdog
With the angle emily will be approaching florida, even the slightest change could be the difference between missing the state completely or going up the west coast. The whole state needs to be prepared. Systems tend to ramp after hitting the shallow gulf stream. Prepare for the worst...pray for the best.
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1008. JRRP
LOL GFS 00z
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1007. GHOSTY1
1st of all don't misquote me i said without deaths, which will more than likely never happen, and 2nd i posted the idea about the Natl. Guard draggin people outta there home for just the same reason giant storm hits, what happens... destruction obviously...death none or minimal for a person who missed the sweep of the city.
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
Levi do you see initialization problems on the 00z GFS?

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1005. DFWjc
Quoting KoritheMan:


How inexpensive are we talking? I might pick up some.

$189

Link

$289

Link
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 1006
Quoting texwarhawk:


I agree I went through Ike and was terrified through most of it. I had never heard sounds like that and personally don't want to experience it again (nor have anyone else unwillingly experience it) but just because I like to see the strength doesn't mean I like the destruction that strength brings, yes it may be amazing destruction, but that kind of amazing that makes your throat feel as if it will close and your eyes water.
How old are you?
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00Z GFS drops the system at 24 hours
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Find a way to deal with it. There is nothing funny about it.


You DO realize you said Cindy in post #909 don't you?
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1001. wxhatt
Quoting Ryuujin:


I'll be ignorant here.. But that's not an eye forming, is it?


No, that's not. You usually don't see an eyewall structure until it's a very strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane. Never feel bad about asking questions here. We are all here to learn something.
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 838
1000. Levi32
Quoting Jedkins01:


uhhh oh guys, looks like we have another guy posting as a girl in the blogs again, I remember this user last year, looks like the user is back. As if we don't have enough fakes these days here as it is lol


Love how "she"'s copying my posts too.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


uhhh oh guys, looks like we have another guy posting as a girl in the blogs again, I remember this user last year, looks like the user is back. As if we don't have enough fakes these days here as it is lol
just minus and report iam every post it makes till its gone and its jason is not cool thats posing as the girl don't be fooled
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Quoting jonelu:

So in your opin if she stays weaker is she going to continue more westerly and maybe head over Haiti and SE Cuba?


I didn't say she would stay weak, just that it will take a while to get the crank turning. Strengthening will be gradual with this one for now. A weaker system will probably track farther west in any event.
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Emily center is sure looks like is re froming too the big t-storms all so its geting BIG
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I still think a center reformation is possible underneath the MLC if current trends continue.


Yeah Emily is disorganized, but its 40 mph tropical storm so what should we expect? Its looks a heck of a lot better than it did earlier today, and although the deep convection is mostly on the east of the center, its still much closer to the center now than it was.
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Quoting DFWjc:


Compusa/Tiger Direct and hardware stores sell solar panels that can run many things...and are inexpensive too


How inexpensive are we talking? I might pick up some.
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Patrikdude,
1. Emily is disorganized
2. The Mid-level center is displaced which means it wont be able to strengthen well, until it stacks over the low level center.
3. Dry air is still a problem
4. Wind shear being created by ITCZ and TUTT to the North to Northeast

Tropical Storm Emily should be only a 40 to 50 mph storm in the morning with all of these limiting factors it has to deal with
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991. DFWjc
Quoting texwarhawk:


I agree I went through Ike and was terrified through most of it. I had never heard sounds like that and personally don't want to experience it again (nor have anyone else unwillingly experience it) but just because I like to see the strength doesn't mean I like the destruction that strength brings, yes it may be amazing destruction, but that kind of amazing that makes your throat feel as if it will close and your eyes water.


Ditto, Alicia in '83 did that to me as a 7 year old kid, the winds and the sound from those winds scared me ALOT more than the flooding rains....
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 1006
Keeping it very weak so far.

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Preparing to ready the Georgia Bight Hurricane Shield®™

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Quoting Levi32:
Emily still has a left over mid-level circulation to the east of the surface center, which displays her continued disorganization. Convection keeps firing, but for now remains east of the center. She'll need to get stacked and more symmetric before significant strengthening can occur.

So in your opin if she stays weaker is she going to continue more westerly and maybe head over Haiti and SE Cuba?
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Quoting FrankZapper:
The one thing about all the fantasy talk is that mother nature doesn't listen to it. Or does she? Here's to all your dreams comming true!


We can handle it don't worry yourself, and mother nature doesn't give a care to anything we say, and ill take your wish for me, BRING IT ON!
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
986. beell
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah a lot of uncertainly that is for sure, I agree though that computer models bringing it out to sea seems rather unlikely now. I don't see why it will suddenly take sharp turn northward out of the Caribbean and then out to sea. For it do so, I'm pretty sure it would have to get very strong in the next day or 2.


A track out of the Caribbean and east of the Bahamas does not guarantee a track out to sea.
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Quoting lovejessicaa9:
Thanks Angela.

Folks should realize that this may be one of the more difficult track forecasts we will have to make this season. It is very fragile with a lot of details involved. Very slight tweaks in intensity and track in the short-term could result in much larger ramifications down the line. Expect things to fluctuate in the forecasts during the coming days. Everyone in the areas threatened by this storm should be prepared, even if the track doesn't point directly to you right now.


uhhh oh guys, looks like we have another guy posting as a girl in the blogs again, I remember this user last year, looks like the user is back. As if we don't have enough fakes these days here as it is lol
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Quoting Levi32:
Emily still has a left over mid-level circulation to the east of the surface center, which displays her continued disorganization. Convection keeps firing, but for now remains east of the center. She'll need to get stacked and more symmetric before significant strengthening can occur.


I still think a center reformation is possible underneath the MLC if current trends continue.
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Late Cycle 0Z Model's coming Out Soon...
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 332
Quoting Levi32:
Emily still has a left over mid-level circulation to the east of the surface center, which displays her continued disorganization. Convection keeps firing, but for now remains east of the center. She'll need to get stacked and more symmetric before significant strengthening can occur.


other thing i like too point out is that Emily could be refroming here center under the deeper t-storms guss will have too wait for the next HH too find out
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Quoting FrankZapper:
Maybe one day you will get to experience your wish. You will be on a barrier island as a strong one approaches. You will hop into your trusty SUV to move to higher ground only to find the bridge already impassable. Now you will get to experience that raw power firsthand!


I agree, I am on a small Island with nowhere to run to and I may have lived through a bad storm but the destruction it did to our Island was unimaginable and although they may just be things, seeing your precious things, small things your kids made, photos... destroyed is heartbreaking.

I understand the thrill for some people to experience such a storm but personally I never want to go through that ever again.
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Quoting Levi32:
Emily still has a left over mid-level circulation to the east of the surface center, which displays her continued disorganization. Convection keeps firing, but for now remains east of the center. She'll need to get stacked and more symmetric before significant strengthening can occur.


what are your thoughts on a track?
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I'm off... goodnight all.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20710
978. MTWX
Quoting texwarhawk:


Well yes kind of. I have been tornado chasing (actually got chased and hit by one and ended up laying in a ditch) and it's about seeing it first hand. Now I would never wish anything like Joplin ever- or any town for that matter.

But tornadoes are different. You can experience an EF-5 tearing apart fields and have no one affected, you can't really experience a Cat. 5 in the open Atlantic first hand (easily).


Apples and Oranges....
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Quoting angiest:


Very highly unlikely. Weak tropical storms don't have eyes. Even weak hurricanes don't usually have what most people would call an eye.
True there.
Member Since: August 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 372
Quoting PcolaDan:
There is a HUGE difference in driving to a hurricane, getting video, enjoying the adrenaline surge, marveling in the fury of nature, then getting in your car to drive out of the area to your comfy home, than living through one in your house, cringing with every bump, wondering when it will finally end, worrying about your family and friends in their houses, and then dealing with the aftermath.


I agree I went through Ike and was terrified through most of it. I had never heard sounds like that and personally don't want to experience it again (nor have anyone else unwillingly experience it) but just because I like to see the strength doesn't mean I like the destruction that strength brings, yes it may be amazing destruction, but that kind of amazing that makes your throat feel as if it will close and your eyes water.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 202
975. DFWjc
Quoting KoritheMan:


This is also true. It's a lot different when you have family involved.

That, and if you lack a generator, you're pretty much screwed.


Compusa/Tiger Direct and hardware stores sell solar panels that can run many things...and are inexpensive too
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 1006
The truth is that Hurricanes CAN kill People

Below is the most promising list possible, based on numerous sources, of the deadliest hurricanes in the world since and including the year 1900.

1) November 1970 - Approximately 150,000-500,000 deaths - Bhola Cyclone - Bangladesh (at the time East Pakistan).

2) April 1991 - Approx. 131,000-138,000 deaths - Bangladesh.

3) May and June 1965 (two cyclones) - Approx. 60,000 deaths - Bangladesh (at the time East Pakistan).

4) October 1942 - Approx. 40,000 deaths - Bangladesh/India border (at the time all India).

5) May 1963 - Approx. 22,000 deaths - Bangladesh (at the time East Pakistan).

6) November 1977 - Approx. 10,000-20,000 deaths - Andhra Pradesh Cyclone - India.

7) October-November 1998 - Approx. 11,000-18,000 deaths - Hurricane Mitch - Central America.


8) September 1971 - Approx. 10,000 deaths - Orissa Cyclone - India.

9) October 1999 - Approx. 10,000 deaths - Cyclone 05B - India.

10) September 1900 - Approx. 8,000-12,000 deaths - Galveston, Texas, United States.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
or a new center could be froming under the t-storms
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I hate to say this and I might get banned or ignored for this but I think a lot of us are wishcasters. I, and I hope everyone else doesn't want anybody to be hurt by these storms or have anything destroyed, but I personally love seeing the power of these storms. I love when the crazy "meteorologists" on TWC go out to these coastal areas and show the power of the winds and rain. I feel bad that people get hurt but I find amazing fascination with the power of these storms. I kinda want the storms to hit land (don't kill me for this comment) just so I can see the power- ya fish storms are nice but you don't see the raw power. I think there are many like me, but its the unwritten rule not to speak of it. If I am all alone on this I'm sorry if I offended anybody by this comment, and if asked to leave I will go back to lurking for a few days.

Lemme see, after you either, A/Stay and get the you know what scared out of you with 115 to 125 mph winds overhead, and just SURE your roof is leaving... and hear the crashing of trees, not just limbs, but whole trees, or you B/leave and evac and not know what's going on... And you get back, and your Louisiana State farm insurance deductible is 5000 bucks, Oh, btw, that would be a new one on ya, cause they didn't tell ya... Well, what to do? It's not a good thing buddy, don't wish it on anyone. Not saying you are, but just think about it. If you ever heard the winds, you would haul out. And quick.
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Quoting Ryuujin:


I'll be ignorant here.. But that's not an eye, is it?


Very highly unlikely. Weak tropical storms don't have eyes. Even weak hurricanes don't usually have what most people would call an eye.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting PcolaDan:
There is a HUGE difference in driving to a hurricane, getting video, enjoying the adrenaline surge, marveling in the fury of nature, then getting in your car to drive out of the area to your comfy home, than living through one in your house, cringing with every bump, wondering when it will finally end, worrying about your family and friends in their houses, and then dealing with the aftermath.


This is also true. It's a lot different when you have family involved.

That, and if you lack a generator, you're pretty much screwed.
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Quoting taco2me61:


I agree with you.... Now yes I have rode out a few storms in my time but I am also smart enough to know which ones to ride and which ones to "Run Like Hell From" .... (Insurt Katrina & Ivan)

But then there are just that few and of course thats the ones we have to pull out of a house or dig there Bodies Out of the rubble....

Taco :o)


I'm for the idea when a storm gets to intense and devastation is imenint i believe the national guard should be able to drag you out of your house even if you want to stay, your life matters not possession
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
968. yoboi
can someone post gustav track?
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 1983


I'll be ignorant here.. But that's not an eye forming, is it?
Member Since: August 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 372
12 Hrs

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.