Tropical Storm Emily forms from Invest 91L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 AM GMT on August 02, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily formed this afternoon after investigation by the Hurricane Hunters. While dodging the Lesser Antilles islands, the Hunters managed to find a closed surface circulation. Emily is currently located near 15.2°N, 62.0°W, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Thunderstorm activity has grown in size and intensity over the past 6 hours, and mid-level circulation is still elongated, but strong. The environment around Emily hasn't changed much from this morning. The moisture within the storm is still relatively high, although there continues to be a lingering dry, Saharan air mass to its north, which could become a factor in intensification. Wind shear is still high (30-40 knots) on the north side, as well.


Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 7:30pm EDT as it moves west into the Caribbean.

Forecast For Emily
The official track forecast is that Emily will continue to travel west-northwest through the Caribbean and cross Hispaniola Wednesday morning, after which it turns slightly more to the north for a potential landfall along the Florida east coast as a hurricane. Models continue to be split between Emily entering the Gulf of Mexico or recurving before making landfall along the East Coast. In the camp of an eastern Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models. The ECMWF has been trending that way, as well. The GFS continues to favor a northwest track towards Florida before taking a turn to the northeast. The HWRF has been forecasting an eastern coast of Florida solution, and continues to do so in the 12Z run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, but the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. As the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center illustrates, this is a U.S. landfall threat.


Figure 2. Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Emily will probably strengthen into a hurricane. In the 12Z runs, the GFDL brings Emily up to category 2 strength, and HWRF forecasts it to max out at category 1. DSHIPS (the SHIPS model that takes into account land interaction) forecasts maximum intensity of a moderate tropical storm. General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast.

Dr. Rob Carver might have an update later this evening, and I'll definitely be back tomorrow, early afternoon, with a new post on Emily.

Angela

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I'm throwing the 00z gfs out the window. personally I don't think the models should be looked at until the 12z runs
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Quoting DFWjc:


Great Friends, knowledge, love, etc etc...oh and Dr. Masters...


Lol but I think we all share that friendship because we have the common hobby/fascination/respect.

And Dr. Masters is like the teacher I always wanted lol
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 203
1064. tkeith
over a thousand posts in 3 hours...impressive
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anyone see adrian today??
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1062. angiest
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Based on this steering it will continue moving west? I'm still am amateur when it comes to steering, so I would like your input.


Short term still looks more west than a true wnw or nw heading. But, there are some subtle changes both to the rige north of Emily and the one over Texas, compared with three hours ago.

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1061. wxhatt
Quoting Levi32:
Notice the long barrier of 200mb vorticity just north of Emily and the Caribbean. This is what is keeping her outflow from expanding northwestward and somewhat shearing her, keeping the thunderstorm activity east of the center. Now notice the area of strong vorticity off of the Carolinas. That is the trough coming into the western Atlantic to try to pick up Emily. As this trough digs in, the trough north of the Caribbean will get kicked out. With a new, more divergent upper flow situated northwest of Emily associated with the new trough, she will find herself under a more favorable upper-level environment for strengthening in a couple days.



Yes, it makes sense. Thanks for that analysis
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 904
Quoting angiest:
This could get interesting:





is this bad for S.fl
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Quoting P451:
Antilles radar loop:



Short Wave IR Loop: Note the strange circulation/feature being drawn up the East side of Emily. I circled it in a few frames. What is that? Is this system still not able to maintain a single vortex?





It's where the old mid level circulation would be so it could be the remains of that.
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Quoting texwarhawk:


I do not want people to be affected (not even the fully ignorant ones who believe they are invincible from even the strongest Cat. 5s). I understand the problems faced after storms (and maybe because I'm in college and don't pay insurance and whatnot) I don't think about them when I'm looking at them on radar. I understand things get rough (even the west side of Ike was rough), but I'm fascinated. I can't help my fascination, or even change it, and it's one of those things that will probably make me a horrible meteorologist later in life, but I'm truly fascinated by all the connections in weather. For all we know a person driving their car in China could set off a chain of events that leads to tropical cyclone-genesis in the Indian Ocean 3 years later. I just love weather.

I used to be terrified by thunderstorms as a kid (still get adrenaline rush during them) and that phobia has turned into a fascination like most do. Maybe this blog isn't the place for me, but I believe all of us here have a fascination (and respect) for these storms- If not why are you here?


We are not set up here to give counseling....if you are disturbed seek professional help
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1056. GHOSTY1
Quoting FrankZapper:
Remember, when you dial 911 the lines are usually down by then. :)


No, really.... i didn't know that... so thats what they mean also when they say we'll not be able to save you during the storm and will have to wait until the calm... as Taco has previously said some of us can handle ourselves we know what to do and if you don't follow whatever they tell you but don't mind me, and it seems like you care about me too much since you keep reminding me of the dangers if you don't care i'll be fine with the other people who know survival
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
1055. 7544
back is emily getting stronger

will the relocate the center

has the plane left thanks
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Quoting PcolaDan:
There is a HUGE difference in driving to a hurricane, getting video, enjoying the adrenaline surge, marveling in the fury of nature, then getting in your car to drive out of the area to your comfy home, than living through one in your house, cringing with every bump, wondering when it will finally end, worrying about your family and friends in their houses, and then dealing with the aftermath.


I agree. It's very different when, for whatever reason, you're stuck waiting out a hurricane in your own home, praying that a tree doesn't fall on it, or that the roof doesn't blow away, or that the waters don't come up too high. Watching the walls of your house moving in and out, as if they were breathing, isn't a good feeling at all.
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1053. jonelu
Quoting Levi32:


I didn't say she would stay weak, just that it will take a while to get the crank turning. Strengthening will be gradual with this one for now. A weaker system will probably track farther west in any event.

I just read comment #29 u posted in your blog. So I looks like a wait n see kinda storm. I hate that. Thanks for posting!
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42 Hrs GFS

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1050. DFWjc
Quoting Tazmanian:
will good night guys the center of are storm is refroming under the deeper t-storms will wait for the HH too see


But when will that be Taz?
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1048. beell
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
is that you're hurricane outfit i see on the avatar


lol. i guess it is now!
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1047. DFWjc
Quoting texwarhawk:


I do not want people to be affected (not even the fully ignorant ones who believe they are invincible from even the strongest Cat. 5s). I understand the problems faced after storms (and maybe because I'm in college and don't pay insurance and whatnot) I don't think about them when I'm looking at them on radar. I understand things get rough (even the west side of Ike was rough), but I'm fascinated. I can't help my fascination, or even change it, and it's one of those things that will probably make me a horrible meteorologist later in life, but I'm truly fascinated by all the connections in weather. For all we know a person driving their car in China could set off a chain of events that leads to tropical cyclone-genesis in the Indian Ocean 3 years later. I just love weather.

I used to be terrified by thunderstorms as a kid (still get adrenaline rush during them) and that phobia has turned into a fascination like most do. Maybe this blog isn't the place for me, but I believe all of us here have a fascination (and respect) for these storms- If not why are you here?


Great Friends, knowledge, love, etc etc...oh and Dr. Masters...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1046. Buhdog
Quoting yesterway:


I will take one from column a, b and chicken chop suey...


ur profile pic reminds me of mine....cool shot.
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Quoting FrankZapper:
How old are you?
19
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 203
00Z GFS throws us a curveball by dropping the system so far through 42 hours
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will good night guys the center of are storm is refroming under the deeper t-storms will wait for the HH too see
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Quoting angiest:
This could get interesting:




is this bad for south florida im going there on saturday?? plz help
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Play the animation leading up to the current, and compare it to the steering winds. Very interesting, especially if it continues to race westwards (HAARP and a "Don" Houdini notwithstanding....guh!)




Off-topic, ditto Press. MQ & Nina Blackwood were VERRRRY popular amongst us (boy) teens when MTV first started. And another Texan here (Port Arthur). We really don't need the rain in THIS part of SE TX (thanks to "weaknesses" & Highs dumping 15" of rain on us last month). But I personally don't need 75mph+ winds, storm surge, tornadoes, etc.... Thanks, but no thanks.
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Quoting Levi32:


Love how "she"'s copying my posts too.


yeah I know, man, I wish these people would just go away, just because they have boring lives doesn't mean they should ruin the blog.
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1039. Ryuujin
Quoting Levi32:
Notice the long barrier of 200mb vorticity just north of Emily and the Caribbean. This is what is keeping her outflow from expanding northwestward and somewhat shearing her, keeping the thunderstorm activity east of the center. Now notice the area of strong vorticity off of the Carolinas. That is the trough coming into the western Atlantic to try to pick up Emily. As this trough digs in, the trough north of the Caribbean will get kicked out. With a new, more divergent upper flow situated northwest of Emily associated with the new trough, she will find herself under a more favorable upper-level environment for strengthening in a couple days.



What will that do to her steering? Will that one level of vorticity help keep the trough more shallow than we think, and move Emily along more towards the west or will it help the trough and pull Emily more north?
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Quoting Seawall:


Lemme see, after you either, A/Stay and get the you know what scared out of you with 115 to 125 mph winds overhead, and just SURE your roof is leaving... and hear the crashing of trees, not just limbs, but whole trees, or you B/leave and evac and not know what's going on... And you get back, and your Louisiana State farm insurance deductible is 5000 bucks, Oh, btw, that would be a new one on ya, cause they didn't tell ya... Well, what to do? It's not a good thing buddy, don't wish it on anyone. Not saying you are, but just think about it. If you ever heard the winds, you would haul out. And quick.


I do not want people to be affected (not even the fully ignorant ones who believe they are invincible from even the strongest Cat. 5s). I understand the problems faced after storms (and maybe because I'm in college and don't pay insurance and whatnot) I don't think about them when I'm looking at them on radar. I understand things get rough (even the west side of Ike was rough), but I'm fascinated. I can't help my fascination, or even change it, and it's one of those things that will probably make me a horrible meteorologist later in life, but I'm truly fascinated by all the connections in weather. For all we know a person driving their car in China could set off a chain of events that leads to tropical cyclone-genesis in the Indian Ocean 3 years later. I just love weather.

I used to be terrified by thunderstorms as a kid (still get adrenaline rush during them) and that phobia has turned into a fascination like most do. Maybe this blog isn't the place for me, but I believe all of us here have a fascination (and respect) for these storms- If not why are you here?
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 203
emily is getting stronger tonight... the more west she goes the more of a FL west coast event
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Quoting GHOSTY1:


We can handle it don't worry yourself, and mother nature doesn't give a care to anything we say, and ill take your wish for me, BRING IT ON!
Remember, when you dial 911 the lines are usually down by then. :)
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
. oops repeat
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting lovejessicaa9:
Thanks Angela.

Folks should realize that this may be one of the more difficult track forecasts we will have to make this season. It is very fragile with a lot of details involved. Very slight tweaks in intensity and track in the short-term could result in much larger ramifications down the line. Expect things to fluctuate in the forecasts during the coming days. Everyone in the areas threatened by this storm should be prepared, even if the track doesn't point directly to you right now.
Rabbit out of a hat??????
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Quoting angiest:
This could get interesting:

Based on this steering it will continue moving west? I'm still am amateur when it comes to steering, so I would like your input.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Will be back on Around 6 AM...
Gnite...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LMAO at the people that were calling her "quite the looker". I'm sure they'll be disappointed to find out it was just Jason.


Well that's what they deserve right? lol. I mean common, if you're flirting with a girl on a weather blog you got serious issues hahaha. Some guys behave like wild beasts, monkey see, monkey do.
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Quoting Skyepony:
Just tripping back into society, hadn't realized 91L had various models run over the last 5 days & early tracks every day. Looks like LGEM is in the lead with error in nm~ 24hr 115.2, 48hr 204.4, 72hr 217.3, 96hr 18.5 & 120hr 198.9. They've been feeding it to SHIP & DSHP. OFCL is very similar & currently in a tight place with 118.2 at 24hr & 143.0nm error at 120hrs. As far as where, the models have done poor so far with this storm, not surprising for all the disorganization. Biggest loser was BAMD.

Intensity wise HWRF is ahead of the rest~ 5kt error at 48hr & -2 at 72hrs. Nearly all the rest have underestimated the intensity so far.


I will take one from column a, b and chicken chop suey...
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1027. GHOSTY1
Cosmic events, we lost our possessions too and other parts of my family have to so we know what were saying and up against... i not meaning to sound rude to you cause i don't want another blogger angry at me even though its inevitable because some people can't accept others opinions and im like that too so i can understand what its like
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
1025. Levi32
Notice the long barrier of 200mb vorticity just north of Emily and the Caribbean. This is what is keeping her outflow from expanding northwestward and somewhat shearing her, keeping the thunderstorm activity east of the center. Now notice the area of strong vorticity off of the Carolinas. That is the trough coming into the western Atlantic to try to pick up Emily. As this trough digs in, the trough north of the Caribbean will get kicked out. With a new, more divergent upper flow situated northwest of Emily associated with the new trough, she will find herself under a more favorable upper-level environment for strengthening in a couple days.

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1024. JRRP
,
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1023. Buhdog
Quoting Seawall:
I hate to say this and I might get banned or ignored for this but I think a lot of us are wishcasters. I, and I hope everyone else doesn't want anybody to be hurt by these storms or have anything destroyed, but I personally love seeing the power of these storms. I love when the crazy "meteorologists" on TWC go out to these coastal areas and show the power of the winds and rain. I feel bad that people get hurt but I find amazing fascination with the power of these storms. I kinda want the storms to hit land (don't kill me for this comment) just so I can see the power- ya fish storms are nice but you don't see the raw power. I think there are many like me, but its the unwritten rule not to speak of it. If I am all alone on this I'm sorry if I offended anybody by this comment, and if asked to leave I will go back to lurking for a few days.

Lemme see, after you either, A/Stay and get the you know what scared out of you with 115 to 125 mph winds overhead, and just SURE your roof is leaving... and hear the crashing of trees, not just limbs, but whole trees, or you B/leave and evac and not know what's going on... And you get back, and your Louisiana State farm insurance deductible is 5000 bucks, Oh, btw, that would be a new one on ya, cause they didn't tell ya... Well, what to do? It's not a good thing buddy, don't wish it on anyone. Not saying you are, but just think about it. If you ever heard the winds, you would haul out. And quick.



that pretty much sums it up.
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1021. angiest
Quoting IceCoast:
Keeping it very weak so far.



That would appear to show degeneration into an open wave.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
just minus and report iam every post it makes till its gone and its jason is not cool thats posing as the girl don't be fooled


Yeah Jason is not cool, he tries to post as if hes a guy who is slow in the head so nobody wants him banned despite how annoying he is. Ive seen through it though, hes just here to start trouble.
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30 Hrs
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Quoting Jedkins01:


uhhh oh guys, looks like we have another guy posting as a girl in the blogs again, I remember this user last year, looks like the user is back. As if we don't have enough fakes these days here as it is lol
LMAO at the people that were calling her "quite the looker". I'm sure they'll be disappointed to find out it was just Jason.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21098
1017. GHOSTY1
Texwarhawk i went through ike too you don't have to listen to him he just doesn't want to understand what we said, he just wants to make sure he's never wrong.
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
1016. Skyepony (Mod)
Just tripping back into society, hadn't realized 91L had various models run over the last 5 days & early tracks every day. Looks like LGEM is in the lead with error in nm~ 24hr 115.2, 48hr 204.4, 72hr 217.3, 96hr 18.5 & 120hr 198.9. They've been feeding it to SHIP & DSHP. OFCL is very similar & currently in a tight place with 118.2 at 24hr & 143.0nm error at 120hrs. As far as where, the models have done poor so far with this storm, not surprising for all the disorganization. Biggest loser was BAMD.

Intensity wise HWRF is ahead of the rest~ 5kt error at 48hr & -2 at 72hrs. Nearly all the rest have underestimated the intensity so far.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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