Tropical Storm Emily forms from Invest 91L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 AM GMT on August 02, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily formed this afternoon after investigation by the Hurricane Hunters. While dodging the Lesser Antilles islands, the Hunters managed to find a closed surface circulation. Emily is currently located near 15.2°N, 62.0°W, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Thunderstorm activity has grown in size and intensity over the past 6 hours, and mid-level circulation is still elongated, but strong. The environment around Emily hasn't changed much from this morning. The moisture within the storm is still relatively high, although there continues to be a lingering dry, Saharan air mass to its north, which could become a factor in intensification. Wind shear is still high (30-40 knots) on the north side, as well.


Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 7:30pm EDT as it moves west into the Caribbean.

Forecast For Emily
The official track forecast is that Emily will continue to travel west-northwest through the Caribbean and cross Hispaniola Wednesday morning, after which it turns slightly more to the north for a potential landfall along the Florida east coast as a hurricane. Models continue to be split between Emily entering the Gulf of Mexico or recurving before making landfall along the East Coast. In the camp of an eastern Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models. The ECMWF has been trending that way, as well. The GFS continues to favor a northwest track towards Florida before taking a turn to the northeast. The HWRF has been forecasting an eastern coast of Florida solution, and continues to do so in the 12Z run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, but the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. As the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center illustrates, this is a U.S. landfall threat.


Figure 2. Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Emily will probably strengthen into a hurricane. In the 12Z runs, the GFDL brings Emily up to category 2 strength, and HWRF forecasts it to max out at category 1. DSHIPS (the SHIPS model that takes into account land interaction) forecasts maximum intensity of a moderate tropical storm. General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast.

Dr. Rob Carver might have an update later this evening, and I'll definitely be back tomorrow, early afternoon, with a new post on Emily.

Angela

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Quoting GHOSTY1:
nobody needs to apologize to anyone we were all just expressing our opinions and we got our right to, thanks to our great nation. God Bless the USA
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Latest news: The Titanic sank today....
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814
1113. jazzie
Quoting KoritheMan:


That... might not go over well with some of the people here. A lot, actually.

One very interesting aspect of tropical cyclones is the subtle, distinct difference between non-tropical and tropical rains. The latter produces a much different feel in the air than does the former. I've always found that the most fascinating aspect of these storms. Anyone who has been through one though, will know what I'm talking about.

The important thing to keep in mind is, you should never actually feel guilty for wanting to experience the power of a storm. It's not your fault that people die. It would be one thing if it was in your control, but it's not. One's wishes have no implications at all on what actually happens, thankfully.


Yea you guys are not the only ones here, you were just brave enough to say it... Even if there are no deaths, what about the damage and the poor people unable to evacuate and the suffering of no power or utilities for weeks after? I say if you get a high from this I suggest you get another fetish or get in a rowboat and go out in the Atlantic and meet one of these and I'm sure you will experience instant gratification. I'll go back to lurking now, I've been here since before Katrina but just recently joined although I'm not sure why considering some of these posts on here.
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THe fact that the GFS did not even initialize this as a TS makes me skeptical. I'm not making any assumptions until 12z gfs or I somehow wake up in morning and this system is gone
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Quoting lovejessicaa9:
You probably won't have to worry anymore, the models have changed camp to the east. NHC just put out the new graphic and it it going north now. I think points north will have to watch out on the east coast though.

Most likely when HH aircraft data comes in again they will see the trough is pulling the storm to the north.
Rabbit number 2
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the blobs behind emily are looking good tonight....man this season is really cranking up
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Quoting GHOSTY1:


No, really.... i didn't know that... so thats what they mean also when they say we'll not be able to save you during the storm and will have to wait until the calm... as Taco has previously said some of us can handle ourselves we know what to do and if you don't follow whatever they tell you but don't mind me, and it seems like you care about me too much since you keep reminding me of the dangers if you don't care i'll be fine with the other people who know survival
Now I finally understand. You guys just want to experience the fringes of the raw power and then you can take care and get out on your own.Or you will chain yourself to a tree or you will ride it out at the "command center" like some people I know in Chalmette,LA in Katrina. "Never again" was a common quote from them.
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1108. dolig
Quoting P451:
Antilles radar loop:



Short Wave IR Loop: Note the strange circulation/feature being drawn up the East side of Emily. I circled it in a few frames. What is that? Is this system still not able to maintain a single vortex?




#1051

the parts you circled appear to be horizontal tornadic vortexes.
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1107. jonelu
Quoting Levi32:
Goodness. The GFS really does drop it on this run.

I know...its sooo annoying.
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1106. GHOSTY1
nobody needs to apologize to anyone we were all just expressing our opinions and we got our right to, thanks to our great nation. God Bless the USA
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814
I've never lived through a real hurricane. But have heard real life experiences through my sisters. Older sister experienced Hugo in St. Thomas. Then two sisters in St. Thomas for Marilyn. Older sister lived at the bottom of the hill (I'd call it mountain but they called it hill) my twin sister on the top with an 18 month old baby. They could see each other's houses. I've heard two different experiences of that storm. One reports it was much worse than Hugo. Any way after the storm neither could see each other's house. Took THREE DAYS for them to find each other. Older sister had been through the recovery of Hugo tries to convience twin to LEAVE. She had cash and could get them out of there. Twin decides to stay older sister talks her into letting her take the baby. 18 month old (who had been doing baby talk for awhile) does not utter a sound for THREE WEEKS. Her 12 hours in the closet had deeply effected her.

Of course all is well now. But.. I DO NOT want to experience it for myself. And I do not wish it on anyone.
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Since what-should-be Hurricane Emily is expected to be here in south Florida by Friday/Saturday, I'll be happy to shoot some footage, albeit from a safe location.
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Quoting Levi32:
Goodness. The GFS really does drop it on this run.

Link
Doesn't even look to initialize it at the 500mb level.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Not buying into the 00z GFS as of right now, but it is interesting that the ECMWF also killed Emily in the 12z run.



only thing I can think of is that they think the carib is too dry to sustain a tropical system. however, the models have done very poorly so far this year on picking up on any of the storms so I'm not suprised. ECMWF hasn't developed anything this year and we are on the E storm
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Not buying into the 00z GFS as of right now, but it is interesting that the ECMWF also killed Emily in the 12z run.


Im going to bed before my brain is pulled in more different directions by recon lol
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1098. Levi32
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Not buying into the 00z GFS as of right now, but it is interesting that the ECMWF also killed Emily in the 12z run.


The ECMWF hasn't really loved Emily from the get-go. It makes one wonder.
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Not sure what to make of the latest 00z, doesn't even seem to want to recognize this as a TS in the initial conditions.

I do not see this completely dissipating in 42 hours.
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Sorry if I lost any respect, I just believe respect should be for who I am (which is someone who isn't afraid to tell the truth of how I feel no matter what others may think of me) and not who I pretend to be on a blog- ignore me if you like, no hard feelings, I may not be the smartest but I'll be the first to admit I was wrong, because "only those who can truly admit to their mistakes gain knowledge and wisdom".

Also sorry for the rant, let me try and get back to the weather before this gets totally out of hand.

Vorticity seems almost perfectly stacked (albeit elongated)

850mb



700mb


500mb


(images linked)
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1095. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Hurricanes12:
Recon should be heading out soon, if not already?


They haven't taken off yet.
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1094. GHOSTY1
no counselling needed, but thanks anyway...
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
00z gfs really makes me laugh. For days it has shown development and when development actually occurs it drops the system.
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looks like track consensus shifted eastward tonight
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1090. angiest
Quoting Levi32:
Goodness. The GFS really does drop it on this run.


Yeah, so the next GFDL is going to be a keeper too.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Not buying into the 00z GFS as of right now, but it is interesting that the ECMWF also killed Emily in the 12z run.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
1087. wxhatt
Quoting Twinkster:
I'm throwing the 00z gfs out the window. personally I don't think the models should be looked at until the 12z runs


Yeah, GFS is now lost.
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 917
1086. GHOSTY1
good point texwarhawk, and stop saying we havn't lost anything or feel worried, i too have been afraid of thunderstorms in my past but i learned how to deal with it and as tex said you grow a fascination with power, and back to the point of fear we have trees surrounding our house and having to listen to the cracks and crashes and having to wait for the one to deal the deathblow is horrible but you trudge on, we lost multiple vehicles and only had minor roof damage though... but for anyone who wants tips for window protection for a large area, we got 2 large thick pool covers and they worked wonders they took the shrapnel sounded like bullets poppin them and didn't know how long they would last but they did and here were safe, innovate, conquer, survive theres the three rules
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
1085. Levi32
Goodness. The GFS really does drop it on this run.
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1084. JLPR2
Seems like no new center, the convection is pulling westward trying to reach the center.

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Recon should be heading out soon, if not already?
Member Since: June 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 528
Quoting beell:


lol. i guess it is now!


wear your shorts a little high don't you LOL
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1080. MTWX
Quoting tkeith:
over a thousand posts in 2 hours...impressive

Should have seen it earlier.... At least know you can read the posts, and not have to dig through all the rubbish.
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1393
1079. Seawall
Quoting FrankZapper:
Remember, when you dial 911 the lines are usually down by then. :)



And sometimes, you can hear the poles crash, bringing down the lines with them. Remember, it will be dark, most of the time; seems like they hit at night.
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Convection expanding westward. Everyone relax and let Emily do her thing. The system will wax and wane like this until it encounters more favorable conditions.

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1077. angiest
Quoting JLPR2:


Yeah, noticed that since they named it, but disregarded it as a rogue mid-level spin, but maybe it is a little more. Eh... Emily is a mystery.

We wont know what's happening down there for sure until the HHs check her out.

And... Man, I really dislike Martinique's radar. :\


Wish there were some WSR-88D's in the area. I think the closest is Puerto Rico.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
1076. Levi32
Quoting Ryuujin:


What will that do to her steering? Will that one level of vorticity help keep the trough more shallow than we think, and move Emily along more towards the west or will it help the trough and pull Emily more north?


It won't have much of an effect either way because the trough is at the ~200mb level, which is not a steering layer for Emily. The longwave trough coming off of the U.S. shouldn't be impeded or helped by the one lying north of the Caribbean all that much, as the U.S. trough is deep-layered, and will pretty much do what it wants until it buts up against the Atlantic ridge and is forced out.
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814
my thinking is if emily goes south of pr florida should be concerned ,north maybe the carolinas ,but morevthan likekly out to sea, im guessing she goes over easternmost cuba and then into extreme s.florida
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1072. JLPR2
Quoting P451:
Antilles radar loop:



Short Wave IR Loop: Note the strange circulation/feature being drawn up the East side of Emily. I circled it in a few frames. What is that? Is this system still not able to maintain a single vortex?




Yeah, noticed that since they named it, but disregarded it as a rogue mid-level spin, but maybe it is a little more. Eh... Emily is a mystery.

We wont know what's happening down there for sure until the HHs check her out.

And... Man, I really dislike Martinique's radar. :\
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1071. 7544
look at emily now and its not even dmax this could get interesting at dmax dounuts are ready night crew ?
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814
1069. Levi32
Quoting P451:
Antilles radar loop:



Short Wave IR Loop: Note the strange circulation/feature being drawn up the East side of Emily. I circled it in a few frames. What is that? Is this system still not able to maintain a single vortex?




That's the old mid-level center, which the current surface center got ejected westward from earlier today.
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1068. Lizpr
I miss my island but this I don't miss. The craziness in the media and the people when an atmospheric even comes.
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I'm throwing the 00z gfs out the window. personally I don't think the models should be looked at until the 12z runs
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.