Tropical Storm Emily forms from Invest 91L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 AM GMT on August 02, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily formed this afternoon after investigation by the Hurricane Hunters. While dodging the Lesser Antilles islands, the Hunters managed to find a closed surface circulation. Emily is currently located near 15.2°N, 62.0°W, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Thunderstorm activity has grown in size and intensity over the past 6 hours, and mid-level circulation is still elongated, but strong. The environment around Emily hasn't changed much from this morning. The moisture within the storm is still relatively high, although there continues to be a lingering dry, Saharan air mass to its north, which could become a factor in intensification. Wind shear is still high (30-40 knots) on the north side, as well.


Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 7:30pm EDT as it moves west into the Caribbean.

Forecast For Emily
The official track forecast is that Emily will continue to travel west-northwest through the Caribbean and cross Hispaniola Wednesday morning, after which it turns slightly more to the north for a potential landfall along the Florida east coast as a hurricane. Models continue to be split between Emily entering the Gulf of Mexico or recurving before making landfall along the East Coast. In the camp of an eastern Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models. The ECMWF has been trending that way, as well. The GFS continues to favor a northwest track towards Florida before taking a turn to the northeast. The HWRF has been forecasting an eastern coast of Florida solution, and continues to do so in the 12Z run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, but the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. As the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center illustrates, this is a U.S. landfall threat.


Figure 2. Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Emily will probably strengthen into a hurricane. In the 12Z runs, the GFDL brings Emily up to category 2 strength, and HWRF forecasts it to max out at category 1. DSHIPS (the SHIPS model that takes into account land interaction) forecasts maximum intensity of a moderate tropical storm. General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast.

Dr. Rob Carver might have an update later this evening, and I'll definitely be back tomorrow, early afternoon, with a new post on Emily.

Angela

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Quoting KoritheMan:


Good morning!


Looks like may actually have something going now bud!!

Got some generator work to do soon!!
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1165. Ryuujin
Quoting IceCoast:


Some intensity in Emily there?
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Quoting bigwes6844:
kool i need that


Did you have a bad day or something? Sorry to hear that.
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Quoting angiest:


One of those looks like Galveston 1900 or 1915. Can't see enough of the path to tell for. Both were long track.


Yes, I feel sure they are there....says from 1851 thru 2010....wish they had given some of the names of the larger canes....
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Good morning!
kool i need that
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After tracking storms my whole life, I have never found models to be helpful with poorly organized tropical cyclones. I am guessing they are thinking the mountains of Hispaniola will tear it up. On the other hand, I have seen very weak TDs traverse all the Carib islands and emerge near the Bahamas and/or Gomex and turn into monsters, although this does occur later in the season. I think the models, right now, are overestimating the power of the trough and Emily will go further west than expected. The Atlantic ridge has been stubborn all season...also, I think Florida is in bull's eye and am not too sure that Gomex can be ruled out. There is too much uncertainty. Even a slight shift west by the ridge over Texas could happen. You never know...
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Quoting pottery:
Sunlinepr...
Thanks for the great images here.


Well it's a collection from the best posted here, by you all bloggers...
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9695
Quoting CorneliaMarie:
Weather Poll:

Hurricane Emily will hit

A. Miami
B. Mexico
C. New Orleans
D. Nowhere

pointless poll
Member Since: June 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 140
1158. JLPR2
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Quick flight tonight.. Data will come fast.


That's nice to know.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I figured my post might stir some controversy. I don't think anyone here is trying to trivialize the suffering of others. I feel bad for all of the death and destruction, but again, what happens will happen regardless of whether or not anyone wants it to.

What about those who study serial killers as a hobby? Do they too need to find a new fetish?


Well Dexter might need to LOL
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 203
Quoting GHOSTY1:


Our houses protection was just fine so ill think we'll put down fort here and if worse comes to worse trudge to the police department, its like a fortress so we'll be fine and if things go your way and we possibly die then we died figuring out no ones perfect, which i already know, God knows my time and whenever he's ready i can't stop him you can't do anything to stop him
Whatever. Peace, love!
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when do the latest models come out?
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she moves ever west

but to roost in the mangrove,

like the old snow bird?
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Quoting traumaboyy:
Mornin night shift...Coffee is ready!!


Good morning!
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Emily looks fine to me right now. She is being sheared tonight still, but it looks like on RAMSDIS loops that she has reformed her circulation closer to the main convective mass. I think she's fine for now.

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Kay I just hit the ! button on a certain someone. Anyways this is a good time to remind people on here to never and I mean never give out your password of anything to anyone
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Quoting angiest:
Quoting KoritheMan (I missed this when it was first posted): One very interesting aspect of tropical cyclones is the subtle, distinct difference between non-tropical and tropical rains.

That is definitely true. I first experienced it during Tropical Storm Frances in 1998. She made landfall near Corpus but threw a lot of squalls to Houston (a now forgotten flood event). I was living at the University of Houston at the time. In the evening when she made landfall, we lost power. Now, normally rains are thought of as cooling, but the air in my dorm quickly got very hot and sticky, all of that heat energy being moved by the system. And this was from a moderate tropical storm 200 miles away.


I actually don't remember Frances, but supposedly we got some rain from it here in southeast Louisiana. She was definitely an exceptionally large storm.
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Quoting Levi32:


The ECMWF hasn't really loved Emily from the get-go. It makes one wonder.


Well the fact the GFS drops it complicates things further, it is a TS there according to HH and the NHC so they can't all of a sudden just not track it because of the GFS showing nothing. But maybe the GFS sees something that was overlooked?
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Quoting JLPR2:


I concur with the second, discarded the first and the third, no idea XD Would like the HHs to tell us what's going on but apparently they still have not taken off. :\



Quick flight tonight.. Data will come fast.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
1146. GHOSTY1
lovejessicaa9, i gotta give it to you, you never stray off topic, sorry if im wastin' space i'll think i'll get back on topic if i can contain myself, Good Work! :P
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
Quoting Seawall:

I used to be one of the, well for lack of a better term, excited, rushed, to see a cane coming to SW Louisiana. Thought it would be a rush, fun, great photography, etc, etc.. without realizing what it would really be. Mattresses in the hallway, tornadoes overhead, and you can tell the difference between tornadoes and 115 mph wind, trust me. And, when is the roof going to lift off? When is it going? Can it possibly stand this much wind? And finally, after hours, and NO sleep in the hallway, you hear the winds gradually lift, and you walk to the living room to find your house is OK. But, when you look out, it's a war zone.
And you look around and think, almost everyone has to be dead...
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9695
1143. Torgen
Quoting WatcherCI:
Rabbit number 2


Just silently press the "!" and then "-". The more of us that do that, the sooner it goes away.
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Mornin night shift...Coffee is ready!!
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Quoting Relix:
Center relocation?
Convection racing back to the actual center?
System moving slower and a bit more to the North?

Am I right in some of these?


Convection racing back to the actual center
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
1137. JLPR2
Quoting Relix:
Center relocation?
Convection racing back to the actual center?
System moving slower and a bit more to the North?

Am I right in some of these?


I concur with the second, discarded the first and the third, no idea XD Would like the HHs to tell us what's going on but apparently they still have not taken off. :\
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Take off in 15min..

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 70
A. 02/0600Z,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0605A CYCLONE
C. 02/0430Z
D. 15.4N 60.0W
E. 02/0530Z TO 01/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,0000 FT
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
Quoting oceanblues32:

I am in souteast florida have been thru francis and jeane then wilma and the sound the winds make is unbearable especially like Francis it was in the pitch dark which is even more scarrier. I do not wish any bad on people in the path of these storms but yes they are fascinating. question for anyone who would want to answer. Do u see these models going back and forth on there runs or do u think they will continiue to head more to the east turning it out.


It has been said many times, but Emily's track is still highly uncertain. We should know more over the next couple of days. It really will hinge upon its behavior in the Caribbean, as a weaker storm will feel less pull from the trough.
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1133. GHOSTY1
im also lucky enough to have neighbors who make a coordinated effort to communicate with each other and help out and thats what we did with ike, we got like a little compound thing goin on here for protection. Like the three little pigs, one house blows down, we move to the next stronger one (hopefully we make it)and so forth until god forbid there's none left then survival kicks in innovate, conquer, survive
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
1132. angiest
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Historical tracks




One of those looks like Galveston 1900 or 1915. Can't see enough of the path to tell for. Both were long track.
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1131. pottery
Sunlinepr...
Thanks for the great images here.
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1129. Torgen
Quoting Levi32:
Goodness. The GFS really does drop it on this run.

Maybe they were keying on the other circulation and forgot to re-initialize on the new one? (shrug)
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Quoting jazzie:


Yea you guys are not the only ones here, you were just brave enough to say it... Even if there are no deaths, what about the damage and the poor people unable to evacuate and the suffering of no power or utilities for weeks after? I say if you get a high from this I suggest you get another fetish or get in a rowboat and go out in the Atlantic and meet one of these and I'm sure you will experience instant gratification. I'll go back to lurking now, I've been here since before Katrina but just recently joined although I'm not sure why considering some of these posts on here.


I figured my post might stir some controversy. I don't think anyone here is trying to trivialize the suffering of others. I feel bad for all of the death and destruction, but again, what happens will happen regardless of whether or not anyone wants it to.

What about those who study serial killers as a hobby? Do they too need to find a new fetish?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1127. Relix
Center relocation?
Convection racing back to the actual center?
System moving slower and a bit more to the North?

Am I right in some of these?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1126. angiest
Quoting KoritheMan (I missed this when it was first posted): One very interesting aspect of tropical cyclones is the subtle, distinct difference between non-tropical and tropical rains.

That is definitely true. I first experienced it during Tropical Storm Frances in 1998. She made landfall near Corpus but threw a lot of squalls to Houston (a now forgotten flood event). I was living at the University of Houston at the time. In the evening when she made landfall, we lost power. Now, normally rains are thought of as cooling, but the air in my dorm quickly got very hot and sticky, all of that heat energy being moved by the system. And this was from a moderate tropical storm 200 miles away.
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1125. scott39
Models are tripolar!
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Historical tracks


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Quoting Buhdog:



that pretty much sums it up.

I am in souteast florida have been thru francis and jeane then wilma and the sound the winds make is unbearable especially like Francis it was in the pitch dark which is even more scarrier. I do not wish any bad on people in the path of these storms but yes they are fascinating. question for anyone who would want to answer. Do u see these models going back and forth on there runs or do u think they will continiue to head more to the east turning it out.
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1120. wxhatt
Excerpt on GFS Model Performance:

"The NCEP model suite is upgraded numerous times annually. Since each "model" is actually a system of integrated components, even slight “tweaks” to any of the components can drastically effect the model's performance characteristics. For example, the Global Forecast System (GFS) consists of the initialization scheme (Global Data Assimilation Scheme - GDAS), the Global Model itself, and the post processed grids that are made available for use in grid and grib format. Even a slight modification to any one of these components can drastically effect the perceived performance of the model. As a result it is not only difficult to isolate consistent model performance characteristics (loosely referred to as “bias”) across the model upgrades, but also the source of the bias.

Examples of modifications to a model system that can effect model performance characteristics include:

Modification of initial data ingested by model (volume, type, density, accuracy)
Modification of model structure (horizontal/vertical resolution, time step increments, domain, grid point vs spectral wave model, vertical coordinate, hydrostatic vs non hydrostatic models)
Physics packages used by the model (radiation schemes, diffusion, land/surface representations)
Parameterization schemes used by the model (convective parameterization, frictional components)
Post Processing of model data (precip type algorithms, resolution of the grid the model data is displayed upon) "
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1119. GHOSTY1
Quoting FrankZapper:
Now I finally understand. You guys just want to experience the fringes of the raw power and then you can take care and get out on your own.Or you will chain yourself to a tree or you will ride it out at the "command center" like some people I know in Chalmette,LA in Katrina. "Never again" was a common quote from them.


Our houses protection was just fine so ill think we'll put down fort here and if worse comes to worse trudge to the police department, its like a fortress so we'll be fine and if things go your way and we possibly die then we died figuring out no ones perfect, which i already know, God knows my time and whenever he's ready i can't stop him you can't do anything to stop him
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
Quoting P451:
Antilles radar loop:



Short Wave IR Loop: Note the strange circulation/feature being drawn up the East side of Emily. I circled it in a few frames. What is that? Is this system still not able to maintain a single vortex?


Good question, and I had to guess, I'd say that this is what's left of that "ejected" circulation center that was just west of the main circulation about 36 hours ago, and which may just now be completely assimilating into the whole.

Watch just before sunset, left to right. It's likely still orbiting the sun, that I don't believe for a moment will stay a Cat. 1.

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1117. Seawall
Quoting GHOSTY1:
good point texwarhawk, and stop saying we havn't lost anything or feel worried, i too have been afraid of thunderstorms in my past but i learned how to deal with it and as tex said you grow a fascination with power, and back to the point of fear we have trees surrounding our house and having to listen to the cracks and crashes and having to wait for the one to deal the deathblow is horrible but you trudge on, we lost multiple vehicles and only had minor roof damage though... but for anyone who wants tips for window protection for a large area, we got 2 large thick pool covers and they worked wonders they took the shrapnel sounded like bullets poppin them and didn't know how long they would last but they did and here were safe, innovate, conquer, survive theres the three rules

I used to be one of the, well for lack of a better term, excited, rushed, to see a cane coming to SW Louisiana. Thought it would be a rush, fun, great photography, etc, etc.. without realizing what it would really be. Mattresses in the hallway, tornadoes overhead, and you can tell the difference between tornadoes and 115 mph wind, trust me. And, when is the roof going to lift off? When is it going? Can it possibly stand this much wind? And finally, after hours, and NO sleep in the hallway, you hear the winds gradually lift, and you walk to the living room to find your house is OK. But, when you look out, it's a war zone.
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Quoting GHOSTY1:
nobody needs to apologize to anyone we were all just expressing our opinions and we got our right to, thanks to our great nation. God Bless the USA
100+
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.