Tropical Storm Emily forms from Invest 91L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 AM GMT on August 02, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily formed this afternoon after investigation by the Hurricane Hunters. While dodging the Lesser Antilles islands, the Hunters managed to find a closed surface circulation. Emily is currently located near 15.2°N, 62.0°W, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Thunderstorm activity has grown in size and intensity over the past 6 hours, and mid-level circulation is still elongated, but strong. The environment around Emily hasn't changed much from this morning. The moisture within the storm is still relatively high, although there continues to be a lingering dry, Saharan air mass to its north, which could become a factor in intensification. Wind shear is still high (30-40 knots) on the north side, as well.


Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 7:30pm EDT as it moves west into the Caribbean.

Forecast For Emily
The official track forecast is that Emily will continue to travel west-northwest through the Caribbean and cross Hispaniola Wednesday morning, after which it turns slightly more to the north for a potential landfall along the Florida east coast as a hurricane. Models continue to be split between Emily entering the Gulf of Mexico or recurving before making landfall along the East Coast. In the camp of an eastern Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models. The ECMWF has been trending that way, as well. The GFS continues to favor a northwest track towards Florida before taking a turn to the northeast. The HWRF has been forecasting an eastern coast of Florida solution, and continues to do so in the 12Z run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, but the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. As the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center illustrates, this is a U.S. landfall threat.


Figure 2. Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Emily will probably strengthen into a hurricane. In the 12Z runs, the GFDL brings Emily up to category 2 strength, and HWRF forecasts it to max out at category 1. DSHIPS (the SHIPS model that takes into account land interaction) forecasts maximum intensity of a moderate tropical storm. General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast.

Dr. Rob Carver might have an update later this evening, and I'll definitely be back tomorrow, early afternoon, with a new post on Emily.

Angela

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Quoting cjswilmingtoneye:
Anyone have a link to the Martinique radar?


Here is a great loop.

Btw there are tons of links on this site to all kinds of radars, satellite imagery, etc.
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Quoting Seawall:
I know, I know, hit the comment, then ignore him, but how long will admin let this... well person get away with this? The former Jason?

On topic, what's the consensus for the high in the GOM over LA/TX area to hang around? Jeez, you can tell it is back 'cause it is it/was HOT here today.


The models really don't suggest that the high will move that much throughout the next five days. We can extrapolate from that and assume that Texas and Louisiana probably aren't in the crosshairs.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19109
Quoting P451:


Hey. I remember that image. I made it. :)

Wish you saved the one I made a day or two before that when we first saw 91L with it's twin perfectly identical and formed centers....I circled them in green in the final frame. Should have kept that as reference. Oh well.

I linked it back to your post the last time I posted it, and yes, it's all yours. I'm just lazy tonight. CREDIT THE MAN
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1212. GHOSTY1
Quoting sunlinepr:


stubborn people go to heaven??


ROFLMAO, dang another good one yall are full of goodones tonite. :P
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
1211. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Seawall:
I know, I know, hit the comment, then ignore him, but how long will admin let this... well person get away with this? The former Jason?

On topic, what's the consensus for the high in the GOM over LA/TX area to hang around? Jeez, you can tell it is back 'cause it is it/was HOT here today.
till someone gets into the office in the morning and gets the email
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1210. Levi32
Hurricanes produce energy at a rate of over 100 trillion watts. You can't disrupt that with a bomb. The shockwave would have no significant effect on the air pressure pattern in the storm either.
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Quoting P451:


How do you put these loops onto the blog? Been trying to figure it out for the last 10 minutes. Lol.
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1208. Seawall
I know, I know, hit the comment, then ignore him, but how long will admin let this... well person get away with this? The former Jason?

On topic, what's the consensus for the high in the GOM over LA/TX area to hang around? Jeez, you can tell it is back 'cause it is it/was HOT here today.
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ASCAT finally got a decent pass on the storm, it's a bit off in the corner but there's a degree of closed circulation, it still doesn't look too hot though.



http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/ cur_50km/zooms/WMBas20.png
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Kori is there any of the models that shows it in the GOM? I had just got off and TWC broke the news to me at 7pm that Emily had formed through a text.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
moral take whatever has been sent for you


stubborn people go to heaven??
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
Anyone have a link to the Martinique radar?
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
HH not expected to depart St Croix for another 2-3 hours


FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 70
A. 02/0600Z,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0605A CYCLONE
C. 02/0430Z
D. 15.4N 60.0W
E. 02/0530Z TO 01/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,0000 FT


Currently 4:33Z
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4863
Quoting JLPR2:
ITCZ disturbance.

We should keep an eye on it, just in case. :P


Yep, could be another player down the road.
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Quoting P451:


No, I just find it comical.

When in doubt - BOMB IT... no matter what "It" is the primary solution is always to BOMB IT.

As to the shock wave idea - creating a big blast of shear. I don't think it's possible to duplicate what nature throws at a storm in that way.

Any shock wave you put in there would be unlikely to destroy the convective process because it's a short lived shot and then everything is there to continue convection.

It's just not possible to do this.

We are better off letting nature do what it is going to do and instead focusing on how to prepare and help others that end up in harms way.

Right now we still have no idea how to help those who are struck by storms in a timely manner.

That is what we have to fix.


Nuking hurricanes? That's one the dumber ideas I've heard. it reminds me of the old quip "NUKE IT FROM ORBIT, it's the only way to ber sure!!!".
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ooooooh,the wx channel hasna red box around sat on the 7 day that says"watching for tropical activity see wxchannel.com for more info",wow,that got my attention,something new???
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Quoting KoritheMan:


After seeing the big westward shift this morning, as well as the gross overestimation of the trough that was intended to recurve Don, I am kind of thinking she will trudge farther west as well. This is further supported by the unfavorable synoptic environment in the Caribbean, which will keep her weaker.
Quoting KoritheMan:


After seeing the big westward shift this morning, as well as the gross overestimation of the trough that was intended to recurve Don, I am kind of thinking she will trudge farther west as well. This is further supported by the unfavorable synoptic environment in the Caribbean, which will keep her weaker.


Do you believe the East Coast of Florida is at Risk by Emily?
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1197. GHOSTY1
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
GHOSTY1 that is not really a girl your speaking with its jason using it for a bypass ban and also hes becoming annoying posting comments from other thinking its his and posting graphics over and over again.


Oops...Sorry guys my bad, now i really do feel stupid, is there anyway to remove whoever he or she is for all of us, or does he even respond?
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
1196. scott39
Quoting tennisgirl08:
After tracking storms my whole life, I have never found models to be helpful with poorly organized tropical cyclones. I am guessing they are thinking the mountains of Hispaniola will tear it up. On the other hand, I have seen very weak TDs traverse all the Carib islands and emerge near the Bahamas and/or Gomex and turn into monsters, although this does occur later in the season. I think the models, right now, are overestimating the power of the trough and Emily will go further west than expected. The Atlantic ridge has been stubborn all season...also, I think Florida is in bull's eye and am not too sure that Gomex can be ruled out. There is too much uncertainty. Even a slight shift west by the ridge over Texas could happen. You never know...
I agree, the focus on models can sometimes take our eyes off of real time forecasting.
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Thats OK....My evacuation plans are to go to NOLA anyways.....Hows the northern gulf now as far as sheer. IF it makes it into the gulf I know the SSTs are high enough for growth.


Shear would be at least marginally favorable were Emily to enter the Gulf.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19109
1193. hcubed
Quoting MrsOsa:


I'm from the Gulfport/Biloxi, MS area


Same here....
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NOGAPS 48Hrs
Similar to the NAM
Link
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Quoting KoritheMan:


We should be, yeah. It would take a dramatic change in the synoptic pattern to have a Louisiana hit. Still watching it though, just in case.
yeah definetly dont want another katrina like system change of paths
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
1189. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting beell:




There was a hurricane.
A man was on his front porch, when a police car came by.
“You’d better get in the car, Mister,” the policeman said. “Storm's coming!”
“Oh, no!” the man said, “I’ll be fine. I’m trusting in the Lord!” So the policeman left.
An hour later, the same policeman came by in a boat, and saw the same man, now at a second story window, watching the water rise.
“Better get in the boat,” the policeman said. “The tide is still risin’ fast!”
“Oh, no!” the man said, “I’ll be fine. I’m trusting in the Lord!” So the policeman left.
Another hour went by, and the same policeman came by again in his boat and saw the man, now sitting on his roof, watching the water rush by his house.
“Come on, man! Get in the boat!” the policeman said. “The water is still rising!”
“Oh, no!” the man said, “I’ll be fine. I’m trusting in the Lord!” So the policeman left.
Another hour goes by, and a helicopter flies over, and sees the man now perched atop his chimney.
The pilot yells at the man, “Hang on, we’ll lower a rope to you and pull you up!”
“Oh, no!” the man shouts back, “I’ll be fine. I’m trusting in the Lord!” So the helicopter left.
The man dies and goes to heaven, and says to God, “There was a hurricane and a flood & I trusted you to save me! Why’d you let me die?”

“Well,” God answered, “I sent you a car, two boats, and a helicopter. Wasn’t that enough?”
moral take whatever has been sent for you
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1188. JLPR2
ITCZ disturbance.

We should keep an eye on it, just in case. :P
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1187. GHOSTY1
Quoting beell:




There was a hurricane.
A man was on his front porch, when a police car came by.
“You’d better get in the car, Mister,” the policeman said. “Storm's coming!”
“Oh, no!” the man said, “I’ll be fine. I’m trusting in the Lord!” So the policeman left.
An hour later, the same policeman came by in a boat, and saw the same man, now at a second story window, watching the water rise.
“Better get in the boat,” the policeman said. “The tide is still risin’ fast!”
“Oh, no!” the man said, “I’ll be fine. I’m trusting in the Lord!” So the policeman left.
Another hour went by, and the same policeman came by again in his boat and saw the man, now sitting on his roof, watching the water rush by his house.
“Come on, man! Get in the boat!” the policeman said. “The water is still rising!”
“Oh, no!” the man said, “I’ll be fine. I’m trusting in the Lord!” So the policeman left.
Another hour goes by, and a helicopter flies over, and sees the man now perched atop his chimney.
The pilot yells at the man, “Hang on, we’ll lower a rope to you and pull you up!”
“Oh, no!” the man shouts back, “I’ll be fine. I’m trusting in the Lord!” So the helicopter left.
The man dies and goes to heaven, and says to God, “There was a hurricane and a flood & I trusted you to save me! Why’d you let me die?”

“Well,” God answered, “I sent you a car, two boats, and a helicopter. Wasn’t that enough?”


ROFLMAO, you got me there but the difference between me and him is that i wouldn't just stay sitting around. That is a really good little story that made another great post to me today! +1000000
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
Quoting bigwes6844:
o nah i was just kidding. but are we safe from emily by u and me.


We should be, yeah. It would take a dramatic change in the synoptic pattern to have a Louisiana hit. Still watching it though, just in case.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19109
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yeah. Unfortunately, if this does get into the Gulf, your area looks likelier to be hit than mine does. Just keep two eyes on it at all times. I'll keep you informed through Facebook.


Thats OK....My evacuation plans are to go to NOLA anyways.....Hows the northern gulf now as far as sheer. IF it makes it into the gulf I know the SSTs are high enough for growth.
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
fay type track buta cane imo
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Did you have a bad day or something? Sorry to hear that.
o nah i was just kidding. but are we safe from emily by u and me.
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Quoting Levi32:
I actually wouldn't be surprised, based on the banding structure on radar, if Emily's center is hanging back near where the NHC 0z coordinate is, although it has been 4 hours since then, perhaps regenerating there due to the convective asymmetry. If it has continued to move at 17mph westward, then it has nothing over it but cirrus. It's impossible to tell without visible or recon, though.


That's what I posted above. RAMSDIS visible loops still work at night and they are pretty decent. The banding structures coming in seem to point at a low closer to the convective mass. It's not as disorganized as everyone was thinking. Recon should confirm it later.
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I can't ever remember seeing so much angular momentum, repeated so often in quick succession, coming off of Africa. Usually there's a pause or two, but not this year, and it's early to see these balls of fire.
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HH not expected to depart St Croix for another 2-3 hours
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9547
1178. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.W.
05L/TS/E/CX
MARK
15.75N/63.43W
TRACK
15.8N/63.7W
16.3N/64.3W
16.8N/65.1W
17.1N/65.9W
17.7N/66.4W
18.2N/67.3W


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1175. beell
Quoting GHOSTY1:


Our houses protection was just fine so ill think we'll put down fort here and if worse comes to worse trudge to the police department, its like a fortress so we'll be fine and if things go your way and we possibly die then we died figuring out no ones perfect, which i already know, God knows my time and whenever he's ready i can't stop him you can't do anything to stop him




There was a hurricane.
A man was on his front porch, when a police car came by.
“You’d better get in the car, Mister,” the policeman said. “Storm's coming!”
“Oh, no!” the man said, “I’ll be fine. I’m trusting in the Lord!” So the policeman left.
An hour later, the same policeman came by in a boat, and saw the same man, now at a second story window, watching the water rise.
“Better get in the boat,” the policeman said. “The tide is still risin’ fast!”
“Oh, no!” the man said, “I’ll be fine. I’m trusting in the Lord!” So the policeman left.
Another hour went by, and the same policeman came by again in his boat and saw the man, now sitting on his roof, watching the water rush by his house.
“Come on, man! Get in the boat!” the policeman said. “The water is still rising!”
“Oh, no!” the man said, “I’ll be fine. I’m trusting in the Lord!” So the policeman left.
Another hour goes by, and a helicopter flies over, and sees the man now perched atop his chimney.
The pilot yells at the man, “Hang on, we’ll lower a rope to you and pull you up!”
“Oh, no!” the man shouts back, “I’ll be fine. I’m trusting in the Lord!” So the helicopter left.
The man dies and goes to heaven, and says to God, “There was a hurricane and a flood & I trusted you to save me! Why’d you let me die?”

“Well,” God answered, “I sent you a car, two boats, and a helicopter. Wasn’t that enough?”
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howdy from a Loong time lurker ie since 05 when we went through that epic year of canes. I've only been through one and that was BOB in 91 then the remnats of Hugo and Gustov out in the Azores. eh i have more to deal with with blizzards and minot flooding..

Anyway back on subject. Given Emily's current Westward track what are this storms chances atm of making a shot for the gulf of mexico and skirting the gulf coast of Florida and crossing cuba. With the momentum it has and what looks to be a decent amount of strengthening. honestly from what I've seen with the curent NHC i think its overshot that cone projected path already.

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Quoting MississippiWx:
Emily looks fine to me right now. She is being sheared tonight still, but it looks like on RAMSDIS loops that she has reformed her circulation closer to the main convective mass. I think she's fine for now.



Well, she looks a lot better than Don, and much larger.
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Looks like may actually have something going now bud!!

Got some generator work to do soon!!


Yeah. Unfortunately, if this does get into the Gulf, your area looks likelier to be hit than mine does. Just keep two eyes on it at all times. I'll keep you informed through Facebook.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19109
1171. Levi32
I actually wouldn't be surprised, based on the banding structure on radar, if Emily's center is hanging back near where the NHC 0z coordinate is, although it has been 4 hours since then, perhaps regenerating there due to the convective asymmetry. If it has continued to move at 17mph westward, then it has nothing over it but cirrus. It's impossible to tell without visible or recon, though.
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
Quoting tennisgirl08:
After tracking storms my whole life, I have never found models to be helpful with poorly organized tropical cyclones. I am guessing they are thinking the mountains of Hispaniola will tear it up. On the other hand, I have seen very weak TDs traverse all the Carib islands and emerge near the Bahamas and/or Gomex and turn into monsters, although this does occur later in the season. I think the models, right now, are overestimating the power of the trough and Emily will go further west than expected. The Atlantic ridge has been stubborn all season...also, I think Florida is in bull's eye and am not too sure that Gomex can be ruled out. There is too much uncertainty. Even a slight shift west by the ridge over Texas could happen. You never know...


After seeing the big westward shift this morning, as well as the gross overestimation of the trough that was intended to recurve Don, I am kind of thinking she will trudge farther west as well. This is further supported by the unfavorable synoptic environment in the Caribbean, which will keep her weaker.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19109
1168. GHOSTY1
Quoting FrankZapper:
Whatever. Peace, love!


Agreed :P Just can't help the way i am but i hope for everone peace
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
Quoting KoritheMan:


Good morning!


Looks like may actually have something going now bud!!

Got some generator work to do soon!!
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.