Tropical Storm Emily forms from Invest 91L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 AM GMT on August 02, 2011

Share this Blog
13
+

Tropical Storm Emily formed this afternoon after investigation by the Hurricane Hunters. While dodging the Lesser Antilles islands, the Hunters managed to find a closed surface circulation. Emily is currently located near 15.2°N, 62.0°W, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Thunderstorm activity has grown in size and intensity over the past 6 hours, and mid-level circulation is still elongated, but strong. The environment around Emily hasn't changed much from this morning. The moisture within the storm is still relatively high, although there continues to be a lingering dry, Saharan air mass to its north, which could become a factor in intensification. Wind shear is still high (30-40 knots) on the north side, as well.


Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 7:30pm EDT as it moves west into the Caribbean.

Forecast For Emily
The official track forecast is that Emily will continue to travel west-northwest through the Caribbean and cross Hispaniola Wednesday morning, after which it turns slightly more to the north for a potential landfall along the Florida east coast as a hurricane. Models continue to be split between Emily entering the Gulf of Mexico or recurving before making landfall along the East Coast. In the camp of an eastern Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models. The ECMWF has been trending that way, as well. The GFS continues to favor a northwest track towards Florida before taking a turn to the northeast. The HWRF has been forecasting an eastern coast of Florida solution, and continues to do so in the 12Z run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, but the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. As the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center illustrates, this is a U.S. landfall threat.


Figure 2. Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Emily will probably strengthen into a hurricane. In the 12Z runs, the GFDL brings Emily up to category 2 strength, and HWRF forecasts it to max out at category 1. DSHIPS (the SHIPS model that takes into account land interaction) forecasts maximum intensity of a moderate tropical storm. General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast.

Dr. Rob Carver might have an update later this evening, and I'll definitely be back tomorrow, early afternoon, with a new post on Emily.

Angela

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1266 - 1216

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35Blog Index

Quoting tennisgirl08:


Those models are considered the outliers, right now. Working under the assumption that the trough will erode the ridge enough to pull a weak system north. Not gonna happen, IMO. Maybe a slight wnw or nw jog, but it will be temporary and the ridge will build back in very strongly. Check models by Wednesday and they will be trending more westward.
kool u got a good point about that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1265. scott39
Quoting KoritheMan:


Alabama or the panhandle certainly could, but at the moment I would be surprised to see a hit as far west as Alabama.
Thanks, Is the main burst of convection to the SE of Emilys center?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1264. emguy
Levi, If your still there buddy, I agree with you. I think the low level held back a little bit. Also, the mid level looks like it was getting elongated and obsorbed into a broader mid level flow on the latest of the RAMSDIS IR2/Visible loop. I think it may be trying to stack and reoganize some more.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:


Do they even need to?

The storm is coming towards them. Why not just wait for it to come to you? Put your feet up, brew some coffee, toss a few weather balloons out the window.

:D



You must have missed my question. How do I post loops on the blog?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:


Wouldn't it be more effective if I did that on their pool? XD
Sure! Whatever works. As long as it ends up on their property.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1260. Torgen
I remember a scifi short story in Analog magazine, *many* years ago, where a scientist takes his giant experimental orbiting "solar power collecting satellite that beams the energy down to the surface via microwaves" machine, points it down into the east Pacific ahead of a hurricane, and turns it up to 11, creating a huge hotspot that recurves the storm back out to sea. The story ends with him expecting the military to come and take him away, and use his orbiting power generator to militarize the weather instead of producing clean energy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm in melbourne Fl, watching the models waffle left and right

one thing that's opening my eyes, the bursts of convection are alternating northwest, southeast'

it could wrap around haiti and emerge as chaotic as before.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FrankZapper:
My friend. I tried iit once. Every fruitcake relative was telling me their lifestory. Now if your in a gang it's a good place to show off your firepower. And you can't unsubscibe without difficulty.


It is what you make of it. Select your friends wisely, run it in https mode, and you'll have fun. You can deactivate or delete your account easily if you want to.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1256. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If you don't like them, take a "numero dos" in their front yard. We were discussing this earlier, lol.


Wouldn't it be more effective if I did that on their pool? XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8732
1255. GHOSTY1
Quoting FrankZapper:
My friend. I tried iit once. Every fruitcake relative was telling me their lifestory. Now if your in a gang it's a good place to show off your firepower. And you can't unsubscibe without difficulty.


Okay, thanks the main reason for my using it was to find someone i knew in a class and wanted to get to know better (i think you get the jist of it) :) Thanks again!
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
Quoting Hurricanejer95:
Decoded recon data in the last 30 minutes:

No decoded data could be found.

Recon did not T/O


Typically don't go live until at flight level...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sunlinepr:


Other people believe that they can HAARP them...

Link

Or seed them...

Link



Do not forget the tunnels lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1252. Levi32
Quoting WatcherCI:
That might put Haiti in the line of fire..?


Haiti is already very much a potential target. Hispaniola in general looks to be the most likely to see Emily first. The faster Emily moves westward, the farther west she is likely to get, so any reformation eastward would make her curve north earlier.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Decoded recon data in the last 30 minutes:

No decoded data could be found.

Recon did not T/O
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:
"When in doubt - BOMB IT... no matter what "It" is the primary solution is always to BOMB IT."

So I should bomb my neighbors? O.o
LOL!
If you don't like them, take a "numero dos" on their front yard. We were discussing this earlier, lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1249. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting JLPR2:
"When in doubt - BOMB IT... no matter what "It" is the primary solution is always to BOMB IT."

So I should bomb my neighbors? O.o
LOL!
if thats what it takes all depends on the reason

wait this is the 2000's now we just sue em
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bigwes6844:
Kori is there any of the models that shows it in the GOM? I had just got off and TWC broke the news to me at 7pm that Emily had formed through a text.


Those models are considered the outliers, right now. Working under the assumption that the trough will erode the ridge enough to pull a weak system north. Not gonna happen, IMO. Maybe a slight wnw or nw jog, but it will be temporary and the ridge will build back in very strongly. Check models by Wednesday and they will be trending more westward.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1247. JLPR2
Is becoming pretty apparent recon to take-off already to get back on topic. XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8732
1245. DDR
feeder bands developing on the west and east coast of Trinidad and Tobago
Radar...
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:

in his regular handle yes but as jessica no mostly copying graphics off bloggers and comments from them too.Best advice is to ignore him.
So Jason is BI?
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
1243. jonelu
Quoting Levi32:
Hurricanes produce energy at a rate of over 100 trillion watts. You can't disrupt that with a bomb. The shockwave would have no significant effect on the air pressure pattern in the storm either.
So if we could only develop a way to harness that power...we could solve our energy crisis.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


That... might not go over well with some of the people here. A lot, actually.

One very interesting aspect of tropical cyclones is the subtle, distinct difference between non-tropical and tropical rains. The latter produces a much different feel in the air than does the former. I've always found that the most fascinating aspect of these storms. Anyone who has been through one though, will know what I'm talking about.

The important thing to keep in mind is, you should never actually feel guilty for wanting to experience the power of a storm. It's not your fault that people die. It would be one thing if it was in your control, but it's not. One's wishes have no implications at all on what actually happens, thankfully.
I think that may be from the difference between convective (big, tall thunderstorms with torrential rains) and nonconvective (dreary weather, rains all day from nimbostratus clouds).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1241. Seawall
Quoting KoritheMan:


The models really don't suggest that the high will move that much throughout the next five days. We can extrapolate from that and assume that Texas and Louisiana probably aren't in the crosshairs.


Thanks, Korinthe, I really value your posts, and opinions.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1240. texcane
There may have been some posts to this affect earlier, so sorry if this is repetitive. It would seem to me that the million dollar is timing. It looks like a leap of faith that Emily will thread the needle between the Texas ridge that has been cooking the state for so long and the Atlantic ridge about 3-4 days out on the Gfs. So, given that, and the predominantly westward wind flow from Florida to Texas, what happens if it misses that window, particularly if Emily tracks any further westward?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
Could Miss. Al. or Fl. panhandle?


Alabama or the panhandle certainly could, but at the moment I would be surprised to see a hit as far west as Alabama.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 582 Comments: 20773
Quoting KoritheMan:


The 12z CMC (don't think 0z is out yet) shows a weak system moving through the Caribbean, then an intensifying one hitting up near Apalachicola on Sunday.

As of now, the consensus isn't aimed at the Gulf.
kool cuz i was getting kinda scared for a quick second because they said that if the storm were to stay weak for along time it would get into the GOM.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821
Quoting GHOSTY1:
i know this if off topic too but is facebook all hype? (Sorry i just can't make up my mind to do open a facebook and work on this) Carry on my friends.
My friend. I tried iit once. Every fruitcake relative was telling me their lifestory. Now if your in a gang it's a good place to show off your firepower. And you can't unsubscibe without difficulty.
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
1233. Seawall
Well my post was supposed to be for Martinique radar, but it didn't work; sorry.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1232. JLPR2
"When in doubt - BOMB IT... no matter what "It" is the primary solution is always to BOMB IT."

So I should bomb my neighbors? O.o
LOL!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8732
Anyone heard anything about recon? Seem to be a little late taking off...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SouthDadeFish:


Here is a great loop.

Btw there are tons of links on this site to all kinds of radars, satellite imagery, etc.
Thanks! I appreciate it!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1229. jazzie
Quoting KoritheMan:


I figured my post might stir some controversy. I don't think anyone here is trying to trivialize the suffering of others. I feel bad for all of the death and destruction, but again, what happens will happen regardless of whether or not anyone wants it to.

What about those who study serial killers as a hobby? Do they too need to find a new fetish?


I wasn't on your case specifically KoritheMan, I was referring to everyone on here that seems to wish for a devastating storm to hit somewhere. Yea you can tell from the excited tones of their posts when a storm starts to crank, It's just plain not right to get excited over anything that will cause pain or suffering. I'm just saying, nothing against you individually. Oh yes and anyone that has a fetish over serial killers or anything that causes pain and suffering is equally wrong. I will go back back to lurking now and watch the progress of the most recent disturbance.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
I actually wouldn't be surprised, based on the banding structure on radar, if Emily's center is hanging back near where the NHC 0z coordinate is, although it has been 4 hours since then, perhaps regenerating there due to the convective asymmetry. If it has continued to move at 17mph westward, then it has nothing over it but cirrus. It's impossible to tell without visible or recon, though.
That might put Haiti in the line of fire..?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1227. GHOSTY1
P451 i told you to not start it or ill get goin and we'll just start to waste everyone elses time here and can they find jasons ip address and just not allow that connection wherever its comin from to work, and what did he get banned for? (right now it looks as if he's bein a dumb*7%)
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
1226. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting P451:


No, I just find it comical.

When in doubt - BOMB IT... no matter what "It" is the primary solution is always to BOMB IT.

As to the shock wave idea - creating a big blast of shear. I don't think it's possible to duplicate what nature throws at a storm in that way.

Any shock wave you put in there would be unlikely to destroy the convective process because it's a short lived shot and then everything is there to continue convection.

It's just not possible to do this.

We are better off letting nature do what it is going to do and instead focusing on how to prepare and help others that end up in harms way.

Right now we still have no idea how to help those who are struck by storms in a timely manner.

That is what we have to fix.



did i forget to tell you that i have
an ultra zonic atmospheric wave generating device to cause manipulations in weather patterns


lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1225. Seawall
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Casper is not so friendly......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
just throwing it out their ,but i wouldnt be suprised if emilys a strong cat 1 in the next 24hrs conditions are going to be great for continued steady stregthening over the atleast the next 24
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
till someone gets into the office in the morning and gets the email


:-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1219. scott39
Quoting KoritheMan:


The models really don't suggest that the high will move that much throughout the next five days. We can extrapolate from that and assume that Texas and Louisiana probably aren't in the crosshairs.
Could Miss. Al. or Fl. panhandle?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bigwes6844:
Kori is there any of the models that shows it in the GOM? I had just got off and TWC broke the news to me at 7pm that Emily had formed through a text.


The 12z CMC (don't think 0z is out yet) shows a weak system moving through the Caribbean, then an intensifying one hitting up near Apalachicola on Sunday.

As of now, the consensus isn't aimed at the Gulf.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 582 Comments: 20773
Quoting TaylorSelseth:


Nuking hurricanes? That's one the dumber ideas I've heard. it reminds me of the old quip "NUKE IT FROM ORBIT, it's the only way to ber sure!!!".


Other people believe that they can HAARP them...

Link

Or seed them...

Link
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821
Quoting cjswilmingtoneye:
Anyone have a link to the Martinique radar?


Here is a great loop.

Btw there are tons of links on this site to all kinds of radars, satellite imagery, etc.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1266 - 1216

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.