Invest 91L reorganizing; The heat is on (again)

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:16 PM GMT on August 01, 2011

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Invest 91L, which is located near 14°N, 57°W, is showing signs of reorganization after a pretty rough weekend. On Saturday, the wave looked ripe to develop with organized convection and the hint of a surface circulation. On Sunday a Hurricane Hunter and NOAA G9 flew into the system only to find it disorganized and negatively influenced by the burst of convection that sprouted on its western edge. Since then, low-level circulation has at least strengthened, if not consolidated, and residents of the Lesser Antilles should be prepared for tropical storm advisories to be posted on short notice. Satellite loops show decent thunderstorm activity and some mid-level circulation, and continued bursts of thunderstorms to the southwest of the invest region. The wave is surrounded by moderately strong wind shear (30-40 knots) on both the north and the south sides, which could delay development. Also, a large mass of dry, Saharan air continues to linger to 91L's north. In a mission this morning, Hurricane Hunters found winds close to tropical storm strength, but no signs of a closed surface circulation—just plenty of winds from the east or southeast. The next mission is scheduled for 2pm EDT, and they will continue every six hours if the system remains a threat.


Figure 1. Visible satellite of Invest 91L at 10:30am EDT as it moves west toward the Lesser Antilles.

Forecast For 91L
Development will probably occur in the next day or two, and the National Hurricane Center is giving the wave a 90% chance in the next 48 hours. The question now is where will it go, and how long will it remain a tropical cyclone. Models are split today, although still leaning toward an Atlantic recurving solution. In the camp of a Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC and the UKMET models. The GFS and the ECMWF are still in favor of the system tracking northwest toward Florida (and coming close) before taking a turn to the northeast. The NOGAPS model is resolving a Florida landfall in this morning's run, and the HWRF hints that it might like that solution, as well, at the end of its run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. However, it is extremely difficult to nail down a track before a cyclone has even developed. Something we know for sure is that 91L is a threat to the Lesser Antilles and the Caribbean islands including Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Bahamas.

In terms of intensity, both the GFDL and the HWRF are thinking this will eventually get to hurricane strength once it develops, although neither are forecasting it to become stronger than a category 1. SHIPS (which tracks 91L into the far eastern Gulf of Mexico) brings the system up to a category 1 hurricane, and the LGEM does as well, but is slower in its intensification. General consensus this morning is that 91L will max out somewhere between a moderate tropical cyclone and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Again, this is something that is difficult to predict before development itself occurs.

The Heat Is On (Again)

Someone turned the furnace on again in the central U.S., although many would argue that it was never actually turned off after the last heat wave. Heat advisories have been issued from southern Louisiana to North Dakota. Temperatures are expected to climb to 115°F in the central Plains through Wednesday, and heat index values will soar again. Oklahoma has now seen over a month of high temperatures hitting at least 100°. Some reprieve could come later this week.


Figure 2. Weather advisories issued by the National Weather Service. Heat-related advisories are pink.

Angela

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2627. lpaocean
3:04 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Older 5 Day Irene forecasts.

I'd like to make GIF movie of the 5 day forecast gifs.

Started saving them but there must be an archive somewhere to get charts for last few days.

Anyone know where older Irene forecasts might be?

thanks
Member Since: March 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2
2625. HurricaneDean07
2:48 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
NEW BLOG
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
2624. HurricaneDean07
2:30 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Getting ready for 11 PM advisory...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
2623. stillwaiting
1:06 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
hmmmm someone earlier had advertised a crow buffet for those who said 91Lwouldgo strait to ts,welll,welll,well....looks like someones eating crow for dinner and leftover for breakfesst tomorrow,lol
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
2622. leddyed
1:00 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting Jax82:
imma thinkin this little girl has gotta lotta land to contend with in the next few days. No tellin where she'll go and where she'll blow.

I'm with you, Jax. Speculation at this point is just that, speculation. I'll keep listening to the real experts as she moves westward.
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 75
2621. patrikdude2
12:58 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I may have missed it, anybody want to post the NHC track forecast?


Member Since: July 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 225
2620. TomTaylor
12:49 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting sunlinepr:
Sometimes storms, bring joy to people...



On March 19th and 20th of 2008 an intense storm off the Canadian Maritimes blew a swell into Puerto Rico the likes of which had not been seen since February 2, 1999. Tres Palmas in Rincon was the place to be.....

Photo by Steve Fitzpatrick

that's a nice wave
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
2619. dfwstormwatch
12:32 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Link
kinda looks like the hurricane dennis dosent it?
Member Since: July 31, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 753
2618. bradbarry27
12:27 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting thewindman:
Any storm that crosses Hispaniola gets destroyed. I've never seen anything survive unless the center stays mostly off its coast. Considering how poorly this storm is organized I see the same fate



Yep, no storms survive Haiti/DR crossing. . . except alot of storms like Frederic

Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 53
2617. PcolaDan
12:26 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting trey33:


A neighbor just ran thru our backyard looking for his pit bull on the loose... wonder if that means anything?
I'm in Tampa.


It means you didn't go to the NEEEWWWW BLOGGGGGG
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
2616. GTcooliebai
12:23 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
-
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
2614. WeafhermanNimmy
12:22 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Member Since: November 1, 2003 Posts: 4 Comments: 234
2613. trey33
12:22 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting seafarer459:

Sadly, I have no ant problem this year. I do have a hive of yellow jackets, in the back yard. Maybe i should poke around and see, if they are annoyed, or nervous. Will report back, after the trip to the Emergency Room.


A neighbor just ran thru our backyard looking for his pit bull on the loose... wonder if that means anything?
I'm in Tampa.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 499
2612. sunlinepr
12:21 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Sometimes storms, bring joy to people...



On March 19th and 20th of 2008 an intense storm off the Canadian Maritimes blew a swell into Puerto Rico the likes of which had not been seen since February 2, 1999. Tres Palmas in Rincon was the place to be.....

Photo by Steve Fitzpatrick

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
2611. dfwstormwatch
12:21 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Link
we can talk live about the t.s here
Member Since: July 31, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 753
2610. EYEStoSEA
12:21 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1492
2608. WeafhermanNimmy
12:20 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Member Since: November 1, 2003 Posts: 4 Comments: 234
2607. thelmores
12:18 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Never been impressed with Martinique radar...... but here it is anyway! LOL

Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3788
2606. Jax82
12:18 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
imma thinkin this little girl has gotta lotta land to contend with in the next few days. No tellin where she'll go and where she'll blow.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
2605. CosmicEvents
12:18 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
If you're reading this...it means your on the old blog. There's a new blog.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5458
2604. EYEStoSEA
12:17 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1492
2603. tropicfreak
12:17 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Looks like we may see our first hurricane of the Atlantic season with Emily.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6814
2602. seafarer459
12:17 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


What r the ants doing? It's just kinda nice to know.do u all think this will become a hurricane? A little one or may medium size. I mean it really don't have alot of time to get any bigger does it, with the island it's gonna be rubbing up next to.

sheri

Sadly, I have no ant problem this year. I do have a hive of yellow jackets, in the back yard. Maybe i should poke around and see, if they are annoyed, or nervous. Will report back, after the trip to the Emergency Room.
Member Since: July 16, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 515
2601. PensacolaDoug
12:16 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
The only people to really listen to on this blog are the ones who tell you to OBEY and HEED all warnings from National Hurricane Center and your local NWS Offices after they have given give their opinions.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
2600. BahaHurican
12:16 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


....perhaps her next trick will be to go through the Hebert Box,
and MISS Florida!
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


....perhaps her next trick will be to go through the Hebert Box,
and MISS Florida!
HEY, how about right turn brtween PR and DR, then out to sea? I'd like that one even better....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20734
2599. IKE
12:15 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
NEW BLOG
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2598. xcool
12:15 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
newwwwwwwwwwww blogggggggggggggggg
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
2597. KeyWestwx
12:15 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
I live in Key West. So far, for the year, we have barely squeeked in 1/3 of our annual rainfall. We are desparate for rain. There's an invasive bug called 'white fly' multiplying in huge numbers and killing our native plants and many exotic palms. They devour entire trees leaving a sticky white gooey mess behind (and below ). We just need a nice TS to help was this away. Emily may be our answer though I think she is going to track East of us.
Member Since: September 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 270
2596. bwat
12:14 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting vortextrance:


Good advice for the blog. However, I would advise any citizens in the path of a storm to not pay any attention to the comments in this blog. Pay attention to the NHC and local authorities.
Agreed! Just saying there are a few very well educated people here. If you know who to listen to, you can get a good feel on what the NHC is gonna say. As you know when you have a storm that could possibly be comming your way, you want the most up to date infor you can get. 3 hours at the time just dont cut it! Lol! But none the less, very good advice.
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 338
2595. CosmicEvents
12:14 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting Patrap:
Is Emily Annular ?

Will Gov. Scott charge extra for tolls if a EVac is ordered ?


How will Emily Impact Dolphin Football Training Camp...?

Thanx n advance,






lolol
that last one is true! That's what they'll be talking about on sports talk radio. The comment about Scott is sad but true.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5458
2594. breald
12:14 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting MyrtleCanes:


I grew up in Chapin, small world


Oh cool. Small world indeed.
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
2592. lottotexas
12:14 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting PalmBeachWeatherBoy:
Is that high over texas a permanent resident for the rest of the hurricane season?
Been over Texas for 2 years now!
Member Since: December 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 52
2591. Hurricanes12
12:13 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
What are the chances that Emily DOES NOT track over the entire island of Hispaniola, and just slides through the east or south?
Member Since: June 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 528
2590. bigeasystormcaster
12:13 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
SPECIAL STATEMENT:

NHC has upgraded 91L to Tropical Storm Emily with winds of minimal TS force of 40mph.

TS Emily is still a weak system at this time and not well-organized. Still forecasting a persistent path to the west in the short term south of Hispanola. The trough expected to develop over the Eastern US will not be deep enough to pick up Emily given it's more southern track it is forecasted to make now allowing high pressure to build back in in the wake of this trough during the Thursday/Friday time frame.

Next update will be as scheduled this evening at 9:45PM
Member Since: July 30, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 109
2589. TX2FL
12:13 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting rod2635:


Just where I have it down the road


News here in NC was all over it.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 117
2588. JGreco
12:13 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting MississippiWx:


Wow!!!!!Look at those temperatures in the Eastern Gulf just South of the Panhandle. All I have to say is please "the Spaghetti model Gods trend East....far East..." Emily would just explode over those waters:o
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 322
2587. SpicyAngel1072
12:13 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
LOL Ike!
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 315
2586. tiggeriffic
12:13 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting presslord:
if you make your hurricane plans based on info ya get from a blog....well....you're stuck on stupid....


depends on who ya listen to Press....some I trust, some I dont...when you, stormjunkie and a select others use the "C" word...i think of you as EF HUTTON....i tend to listen
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3599
2585. presslord
12:13 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
My question is this, what happened to the trough that was forecast to weaken the ridge and allow for the storm to move out to sea. What has changed in that realm of the forecast, because recently it seems that the models are trending farther west when it pulls off of the Haiti area.

Btw for Presslord: What is the contingency plan right now for the relief base that you have in Haiti as for supply demands.


shipping into haiti is a constantly evolving process....we'll just have to deal with haiti as events dictate
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10458
2584. Slamguitar
12:13 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Emily is moving almost due west if I see correctly. It looks like in the last hour or so she gained a burst of rotation.
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1176
2583. swflurker
12:12 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting bwat:


Amen, there are some people who read this blog, "example: me :)", who rely on this blog as a source of information. Then again after a few years of lurking, you kinda get figure out who to listen to. cough....levi...cough. :)
+1 million!
Member Since: August 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 143
2582. WeafhermanNimmy
12:12 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
18Z HWRF wants to scare Mr. Carolinas




uh oh!
Member Since: November 1, 2003 Posts: 4 Comments: 234
2581. Levi32
12:12 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
My question is this, what happened to the trough that was forecast to weaken the ridge and allow for the storm to move out to sea. What has changed in that realm of the forecast, because recently it seems that the models are trending farther west when it pulls off of the Haiti area.

Btw for Presslord: What is the contingency plan right now for the relief base that you have in Haiti as for supply demands.


The trough is still there, and can be seen entering the scene currently over the eastern United States. The models overestimated the trough initially, which they have done a lot this year, and Emily took longer than expected to develop. Both of these things have resulted in the farther west track that we now have forecasted.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
2580. GTcooliebai
12:12 AM GMT on August 02, 2011


-
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
2579. rod2635
12:12 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
18Z HWRF wants to scare Mr. Carolinas




Just where I have it down the road
Member Since: January 27, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 259
2578. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:11 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
1686. WeatherNerdPR 10:09 PM GMT on August 01, 2011 +1
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
T.C.F.W.
XXL/TS/E/CX
MARK
15.03N/61.08W

Huh?
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2165


i always call it first always have always will
right after the call renumber follows suit
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52263

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.