Don battling dry air and wind shear

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:37 PM GMT on July 28, 2011

Share this Blog
24
+

Tropical Storm Don continues to be an unimpressive low-end tropical storm as it continues northwest towards the Texas coast. Don formed yesterday afternoon from an African tropical wave that moved into the Gulf of Mexico under a region of low wind shear. Don's formation date of July 27 is nearly a month ahead of the usual August 23 date for the arrival of the season's fourth named storm of the year. There is currently no hurricane hunter airplane in Don, and a new airplane is not due in the storm until tonight. The last center fix at 1pm EDT found surface winds of 45 mph and a central pressure of 1005 mb, a 4 mb rise from earlier this morning. Water vapor satellite images show a region of dry air to the northwest of Don, over the western Gulf of Mexico. Wind shear as diagnosed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group and the SHIPS model show a moderate 5 - 15 knots of shear from strong upper level winds out of the north. This shear is creating problems for Don by injecting dry air into the system. Visible satellite imagery from early this afternoon showed the presence of surface arc-shaped clouds expanding outwards to the north from the center of Don. These type of clouds are a sign that the storm is struggling with dry air. When dry air at middle levels of the atmosphere gets injected into thunderstorms due to wind shear, the dry air tends to create strong downdrafts that rob the storm of moisture. These downdrafts spread out at the ocean surface and create arc-shaped surface cumulus clouds.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Don from pm EDT July 28, 2011, showing arc-shaped surface clouds--the tell-tale sign of dry air interfering with the storm's organization.


Figure 2. The latest drought map for Texas shows that over 75% of the state is in exceptional drought--the highest category of drought. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Forecast for Don
The big question for Don is, will it bring significant rains to Texas? According to the National Climatic Data Center, the six-month period ending in June 2011 was the driest on record. Average rain between January and June was more than eight inches (203 millimeters) below average in Texas, and the state experienced record heat between April and June. The heat and lack of rain have brought exceptional drought--the highest category of drought--to over 75% of the state. Don has the potential to bring some decent drought-busting rains to the state. If Don can expand in size and intensify to a 50 - 55 mph tropical storm, it has the capability to bring hundreds of millions of dollars worth of beneficial rains to the state. We don't want Don to stay in its current state, which is too small and weak to bring significant rains to Texas. If Don follows the current NHC forecast, which brings the storm up to a moderate-strength tropical storm, that would be just right. Don's small size makes it prone to dry air and wind shear, though, and it is uncertain whether the storm can overcome these problems enough to become a significant rain maker. NHC gave Don a 12% chance of intensifying into a hurricane in the 11am advisory, which is a reasonable forecast, since Don is running out of time to get its act together in time to become a hurricane. None of the computer models is predicting Don will become a hurricane.

For those of you wondering about your odds of experiencing tropical storm force winds, I recommend NHC's wind probability forecast. The 11 am version of this forecast shows that Port O'Connor, Texas has the highest chance of tropical storm-force winds (39+ mph): 45%.

New hurricane archive search feature
The autocomplete entities in the wunderground search box has been extended to include hurricanes, so you can now search for a storm by name, year, or basin. Here are some examples in case you feel like exploring your new options:

By name:

Hurricane David - Atlantic, 1979
David, Major Hurricane - Atlantic, 1979
Major Hurricane David - Atlantic, 1979

By year:

2005 Hurricanes Atlantic
2007 Hurricanes Eastern Pacific

By basin:

Hurricanes Western Pacific 2011
Hurricanes Atlantic 2008

By category:

Tropical Storms Atlantic 2005
Tropical Depressions Indian Ocean 2011
Subtropical Storms Eastern Pacific 2010
Extratropical Storms Western Pacific 1988

I'll have a new post Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 71 - 21

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52Blog Index

Before that wave in the Central Atlantic can do anything close to developing, it's going to have to separate itself from the ITCZ.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Don looks a lot like Bret, which says quite a bit about the environmental conditions around the system. They are and have been much more unfavorable than the NHC and many others believed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tiggeriffic:
Atlantic and Pacific Records during the modern recorded era

Atlantic Hurricane and Tropical Storm Records


•Earliest tropical storm formed: Subtropical Storm One, January 18, 1978, through January 23, 1978, 45 mph. Excluding this subtropical storm, the Groundhog Day Tropical Storm of 1952 February 2, 1952-February 3, 1952 with 50 mph winds was the earliest formed in a calendar year.
•Earliest Hurricane formed in a calendar year: March 6, 1908 Hurricane
•Earliest Category 3+ hurricane : Hurricane Able, May 15, 1951 (In May/June 1825 there was a major hurricane also, but there is less information available about it due to the records of the time.)
•Earliest hurricane in existence in a calendar year: Hurricane Alice, January 1-6, 80mpg 1955 (and December 31, 1954), formed the previous year. The earliest tropical storm was Tropical Storm Zeta in 2005-2006 (see below)
•Latest tropical storm formed: Tropical Storm Zeta, 11am AST, December 30, 2005. Previous, Hurricane Alice 1am EST, December 30, 1954.
•Latest hurricane formed: Hurricane Alice 1am EST, December 30, 1954. The only two cross-season storms on record are Hurricane Alice in 1954-1955 and Tropical Storm Zeta 2005-2006 (See below).
•Latest hurricane in existence from previous year: Hurricane Alice, 1954-1955, January 6, 1955 (see Tropical Storm Zeta, January 6, 2006 for the latest Tropical Storm in existence)
•Strongest (most intense) hurricane: Hurricane Wilma 2005, 882 millibars (mb) (the previous most intense hurricane was Hurricane Gilbert 1988 at 888 mb)
•Strongest land-falling United States Hurricane: Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, 160mph 892 mbar
•Longest lived hurricane :Hurricane San Ciriaco, August 1899 (28 days), Hurricane Ginger September 1971 (27.25 days), Hurricane Inga September 1969, 24.75 days, Hurricane Kyle September 2002, 22 days, Hurricane Carrie, September 1957 & Hurricane Inez September 1966 (20.75 days).
•Longest Category 5 hurricane: Hurricane Allen, 1980, reached Category 5 status on 3 occasions (Ivan and Isabel did the same, but Allen lasted longer). Hurricane Dog 1950 2.50 days; Hurricane Isabel 2003, Hurricane David 1979, Hurricane Mitch 1998 all 1.75 days.
•Most storms per season: 28 in 2005 season (revised upward by 1 April 2006) (previous: 21 named storms in 1933).
•Fewest storms per season (since 1965): 1983 4 storms; 1965, 1977, 1982, 1986, 6 storms; 1972, 1987, 1992, 1994, 7 storms
•What happens if they run out of names? The Greek alphabet is used: Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, eta, theta,iota, kappa, lambda, mu, nu xi, omikron, pi, rho, sigma,tau,upsilon,phi, chi, psi, omega.
•When do they start with the following season's names? January 1 of the year, not June 1st when the Atlantic hurricane season begins or May 15th for the Pacific hurricane season. However storms that overlap from one calendar year into another are not renamed.
•Strongest January hurricane: Hurricane Alice, January 1955, 80 mph winds (peak January 2, 1955) (The naming is a story in itself since it became a tropical storm Dec 30, 1954 but advisories weren't issued until January 1955, so it was given the name Alice, which made it the second Alice for 1954 - at that time names were re-used each year), December 30, 1954-January 6, 1955. Tropical Storm Zeta December 30, 2005-January 6, 2006. Subtropical Storm One, January 18, 1978 45 mph winds is the only storm formed in January.
•Strongest February tropical storm: Groundhog Day Storm of 1952 February 2, 1952-February 3, 1952, 50 mph
•Strongest March hurricane: March 6, 1908 Hurricane, category 2 storm.
•Strongest April tropical storm: Ana 2003 (the only April storm in fact), April 20-April 24, 60 mph winds, 994 mb
•Strongest May hurricane:Hurricane Able 1951 (Category 3), 1908 Hurricane (Category ?), Alma 1970 (Cat 1), Tropical Storm 1933, May 15, 1887 (70mph) & May 17, 1887 (60 mph), earliest two storms active at once. Tropical Storm One, May 22, 1948 (50mph). Tropical Storm One, May 19, 1940.
•Strongest June hurricane: Hurricane Audrey, June 25-29, 1957 (145mph, 946 mbar) (see also Alma 1966, 130 mph, 970 mbar and Agnes June 14-25, 1972 did a lot of damage, 85mph, 977 mbar)
•Strongest July hurricane: Emily, 2005 (161 mph top sustained winds - earliest recorded category 5 hurricane) (previous record: Dennis (150 mph) 2005; Hurricane #1 (140 mph) in 1926.
•Strongest August hurricane: Allen 1980 899 mbar, 190 mph (see also Katrina, 2005 175 mph sustained winds, 902 mbar; Hurricane Camille, August 1969, 190 mph, 905 mbar; Andrew, August 1992, 175mph, 922 mbar)
•Strongest September hurricane: Gilbert, 185 mph, 888 mbar, (see Rita, 2005 175 mph, 897 mbar; Hurricane Janet, 1955, 175mph 914 mb)
•Strongest October hurricane: Wilma 2005, 175 mph, 882 mbar. Wilma became the most intense hurricane in the Atlantic Basin ever recorded.
•Strongest November hurricane: Lenny, 1999, November 13-23. 155 mph, 933 mbar. Also notable for its eastward motion. Tied with Michelle in 2001 based on central pressure of 933 mbar, 140 mph wind.
•Strongest December hurricane: 1925 Hurricane, December 4, 1925, (100mph); see Hurricane Epsilon 2005 , 85mph, 979 mbar and Hurricane Nicole of 1998 85mph; see also Hurricane Lili 1984 80mph. Hurricane Epsilon 2005 is the longest lasting December storm.
•Season with most hurricanes: 2005 with 15 Hurricanes (previous record: 12 in 1969)
•Most major hurricanes hitting the U.S.: 4 in 2005 (previous record: three in 2004). Major hurricanes are category 3+.
•Most tornadoes spawned: Hurricane Frances, 2004 (123), Hurricane Ivan 2004 (117), Hurricane Beulah 1967, (115), Hurricane Katrina 2005 (30). Hurricane Andrew also was notable for its tornados in the South Miami area.
•Most Category 5 Hurricanes in one season: 4 in 2005 (Emily, Katrina, Rita, Wilma) (previous record: two in 1960 and 1961)
•Most Tropical Storms/hurricanes before August 1: 7 in 2005 (previous record: five in 1997)
•Most two-year consecutive total Tropical Storms: 2004-2005, 41 (previous record: 32 most recently in 1995-96)
•Most two-year consecutive total Hurricanes: 2005, 25 (previous record: 21 in 1886-87)
•Most Two-Year Consecutive Total of Major Hurricanes: 2004-2005, 13 (ties record in 1950-51)
•Most Two-Year Consecutive Major Hurricane Landfalls: 2004-2005, Seven (previous record: five in 1954-55)
•Most Two-Year Consecutive Florida Major Hurricane Landfalls: 2004-2005, Five (previous record: three in 1949-50)
•Most Three-Year Consecutive Total of Tropical Storms: 2003,2004,2005, 57 (previous record: 43 most recently in 2002-04)
•Most Three-Year Consecutive Total of Hurricanes: 2005, 31 (previous record: 27 in 1886-88)
•Most Three-Year Consecutive Total of Major Hurricanes: 2003,2004,2005, 16 (ties record in 1949-51 and 1950-52)
•Deadliest U.S. Hurricane since 1928: Katrina, 2005 (at least 1,300).
2005 had three of the six strongest hurricanes on record: Wilma 882 mb (1st), Rita 897 mb (4th), Katrina 902 mb (6th)
•Earliest hurricane to strike the United States: Alma struck northwest Florida on June 9, 1966.
•Four hurricanes have existed simultaneously twice: August 22, 1893 and September 25-27, 1998 with Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl as hurricanes. In 1971 there were 5 tropical cyclones simultaneously, but only 2 were hurricanes.
•Latest hurricane to strike the U. S.: late on November 30, 1925 near Tampa, Florida.
•Most storm names retired in a single year: 2005, 5 names. Previous record 4 names in 1955, 1995 and, 2004.
•Only Tropical Storm (e.g. it never was a hurricane) name retired: Allison, 2001. It was a huge rain event and did enough damage to be retired.
•Longest July Tropical System (Hurricane or Tropical Storm):
•Earliest far-East Atlantic storm: Hurricane Bertha (July 3, 2008-July 20, 2008) (surpassing 1995's Bertha which formed 2 days later and several hundred miles to the west)
•Longest lasting July Hurricane/Tropical Storm: Hurricane Bertha, July 3, 2008-July 20, 2008.
•Most landfalls in a particular state, Florida: Tropical Storm Fay, 2008, when it hit the Florida Keys, Southwest Florida (near Naples), Northeast Florida (near Flagler Beach), and the Florida Panhandle (near Apalachicola, Florida).
•Fastest moving hurricane or tropical storm:Now the question here is what are the fastest moving storms? This is important because forward speed can impact both wind velocity and surge, and decrease the flooding from rain. The fastest recorded hurricane was "The Long Island Express" in 1938, a category 3 storm. It was travelling between 60 and 70 miles per hour!




a link would have been better
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
btw...sorry so long...not good at links yet...
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3666
Quoting P451:


That depends on what you're looking for. Those who want Don to intensify into a hurricane then it's a bad thing. Those who want Don to landfall in south to central Texas as a decent rain maker with no damage as a weak to maybe moderate TS? It's a good thing.



I've always had a hard time wanting to encourage a storm, but with all the droughts in Texas, am I wrong for wanting a storm that would help us out?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:


There is no way we are going tohave a hurricane before that.


Yes there is. That is 13 days from now.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32862
63. SLU
EMILY is no stranger to the Eastern Caribbean







Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5367
Atlantic and Pacific Records during the modern recorded era

Atlantic Hurricane and Tropical Storm Records


•Earliest tropical storm formed: Subtropical Storm One, January 18, 1978, through January 23, 1978, 45 mph. Excluding this subtropical storm, the Groundhog Day Tropical Storm of 1952 February 2, 1952-February 3, 1952 with 50 mph winds was the earliest formed in a calendar year.
•Earliest Hurricane formed in a calendar year: March 6, 1908 Hurricane
•Earliest Category 3+ hurricane : Hurricane Able, May 15, 1951 (In May/June 1825 there was a major hurricane also, but there is less information available about it due to the records of the time.)
•Earliest hurricane in existence in a calendar year: Hurricane Alice, January 1-6, 80mpg 1955 (and December 31, 1954), formed the previous year. The earliest tropical storm was Tropical Storm Zeta in 2005-2006 (see below)
•Latest tropical storm formed: Tropical Storm Zeta, 11am AST, December 30, 2005. Previous, Hurricane Alice 1am EST, December 30, 1954.
•Latest hurricane formed: Hurricane Alice 1am EST, December 30, 1954. The only two cross-season storms on record are Hurricane Alice in 1954-1955 and Tropical Storm Zeta 2005-2006 (See below).
•Latest hurricane in existence from previous year: Hurricane Alice, 1954-1955, January 6, 1955 (see Tropical Storm Zeta, January 6, 2006 for the latest Tropical Storm in existence)
•Strongest (most intense) hurricane: Hurricane Wilma 2005, 882 millibars (mb) (the previous most intense hurricane was Hurricane Gilbert 1988 at 888 mb)
•Strongest land-falling United States Hurricane: Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, 160mph 892 mbar
•Longest lived hurricane :Hurricane San Ciriaco, August 1899 (28 days), Hurricane Ginger September 1971 (27.25 days), Hurricane Inga September 1969, 24.75 days, Hurricane Kyle September 2002, 22 days, Hurricane Carrie, September 1957 & Hurricane Inez September 1966 (20.75 days).
•Longest Category 5 hurricane: Hurricane Allen, 1980, reached Category 5 status on 3 occasions (Ivan and Isabel did the same, but Allen lasted longer). Hurricane Dog 1950 2.50 days; Hurricane Isabel 2003, Hurricane David 1979, Hurricane Mitch 1998 all 1.75 days.
•Most storms per season: 28 in 2005 season (revised upward by 1 April 2006) (previous: 21 named storms in 1933).
•Fewest storms per season (since 1965): 1983 4 storms; 1965, 1977, 1982, 1986, 6 storms; 1972, 1987, 1992, 1994, 7 storms
•What happens if they run out of names? The Greek alphabet is used: Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, eta, theta,iota, kappa, lambda, mu, nu xi, omikron, pi, rho, sigma,tau,upsilon,phi, chi, psi, omega.
•When do they start with the following season's names? January 1 of the year, not June 1st when the Atlantic hurricane season begins or May 15th for the Pacific hurricane season. However storms that overlap from one calendar year into another are not renamed.
•Strongest January hurricane: Hurricane Alice, January 1955, 80 mph winds (peak January 2, 1955) (The naming is a story in itself since it became a tropical storm Dec 30, 1954 but advisories weren't issued until January 1955, so it was given the name Alice, which made it the second Alice for 1954 - at that time names were re-used each year), December 30, 1954-January 6, 1955. Tropical Storm Zeta December 30, 2005-January 6, 2006. Subtropical Storm One, January 18, 1978 45 mph winds is the only storm formed in January.
•Strongest February tropical storm: Groundhog Day Storm of 1952 February 2, 1952-February 3, 1952, 50 mph
•Strongest March hurricane: March 6, 1908 Hurricane, category 2 storm.
•Strongest April tropical storm: Ana 2003 (the only April storm in fact), April 20-April 24, 60 mph winds, 994 mb
•Strongest May hurricane:Hurricane Able 1951 (Category 3), 1908 Hurricane (Category ?), Alma 1970 (Cat 1), Tropical Storm 1933, May 15, 1887 (70mph) & May 17, 1887 (60 mph), earliest two storms active at once. Tropical Storm One, May 22, 1948 (50mph). Tropical Storm One, May 19, 1940.
•Strongest June hurricane: Hurricane Audrey, June 25-29, 1957 (145mph, 946 mbar) (see also Alma 1966, 130 mph, 970 mbar and Agnes June 14-25, 1972 did a lot of damage, 85mph, 977 mbar)
•Strongest July hurricane: Emily, 2005 (161 mph top sustained winds - earliest recorded category 5 hurricane) (previous record: Dennis (150 mph) 2005; Hurricane #1 (140 mph) in 1926.
•Strongest August hurricane: Allen 1980 899 mbar, 190 mph (see also Katrina, 2005 175 mph sustained winds, 902 mbar; Hurricane Camille, August 1969, 190 mph, 905 mbar; Andrew, August 1992, 175mph, 922 mbar)
•Strongest September hurricane: Gilbert, 185 mph, 888 mbar, (see Rita, 2005 175 mph, 897 mbar; Hurricane Janet, 1955, 175mph 914 mb)
•Strongest October hurricane: Wilma 2005, 175 mph, 882 mbar. Wilma became the most intense hurricane in the Atlantic Basin ever recorded.
•Strongest November hurricane: Lenny, 1999, November 13-23. 155 mph, 933 mbar. Also notable for its eastward motion. Tied with Michelle in 2001 based on central pressure of 933 mbar, 140 mph wind.
•Strongest December hurricane: 1925 Hurricane, December 4, 1925, (100mph); see Hurricane Epsilon 2005 , 85mph, 979 mbar and Hurricane Nicole of 1998 85mph; see also Hurricane Lili 1984 80mph. Hurricane Epsilon 2005 is the longest lasting December storm.
•Season with most hurricanes: 2005 with 15 Hurricanes (previous record: 12 in 1969)
•Most major hurricanes hitting the U.S.: 4 in 2005 (previous record: three in 2004). Major hurricanes are category 3+.
•Most tornadoes spawned: Hurricane Frances, 2004 (123), Hurricane Ivan 2004 (117), Hurricane Beulah 1967, (115), Hurricane Katrina 2005 (30). Hurricane Andrew also was notable for its tornados in the South Miami area.
•Most Category 5 Hurricanes in one season: 4 in 2005 (Emily, Katrina, Rita, Wilma) (previous record: two in 1960 and 1961)
•Most Tropical Storms/hurricanes before August 1: 7 in 2005 (previous record: five in 1997)
•Most two-year consecutive total Tropical Storms: 2004-2005, 41 (previous record: 32 most recently in 1995-96)
•Most two-year consecutive total Hurricanes: 2005, 25 (previous record: 21 in 1886-87)
•Most Two-Year Consecutive Total of Major Hurricanes: 2004-2005, 13 (ties record in 1950-51)
•Most Two-Year Consecutive Major Hurricane Landfalls: 2004-2005, Seven (previous record: five in 1954-55)
•Most Two-Year Consecutive Florida Major Hurricane Landfalls: 2004-2005, Five (previous record: three in 1949-50)
•Most Three-Year Consecutive Total of Tropical Storms: 2003,2004,2005, 57 (previous record: 43 most recently in 2002-04)
•Most Three-Year Consecutive Total of Hurricanes: 2005, 31 (previous record: 27 in 1886-88)
•Most Three-Year Consecutive Total of Major Hurricanes: 2003,2004,2005, 16 (ties record in 1949-51 and 1950-52)
•Deadliest U.S. Hurricane since 1928: Katrina, 2005 (at least 1,300).
2005 had three of the six strongest hurricanes on record: Wilma 882 mb (1st), Rita 897 mb (4th), Katrina 902 mb (6th)
•Earliest hurricane to strike the United States: Alma struck northwest Florida on June 9, 1966.
•Four hurricanes have existed simultaneously twice: August 22, 1893 and September 25-27, 1998 with Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl as hurricanes. In 1971 there were 5 tropical cyclones simultaneously, but only 2 were hurricanes.
•Latest hurricane to strike the U. S.: late on November 30, 1925 near Tampa, Florida.
•Most storm names retired in a single year: 2005, 5 names. Previous record 4 names in 1955, 1995 and, 2004.
•Only Tropical Storm (e.g. it never was a hurricane) name retired: Allison, 2001. It was a huge rain event and did enough damage to be retired.
•Longest July Tropical System (Hurricane or Tropical Storm):
•Earliest far-East Atlantic storm: Hurricane Bertha (July 3, 2008-July 20, 2008) (surpassing 1995's Bertha which formed 2 days later and several hundred miles to the west)
•Longest lasting July Hurricane/Tropical Storm: Hurricane Bertha, July 3, 2008-July 20, 2008.
•Most landfalls in a particular state, Florida: Tropical Storm Fay, 2008, when it hit the Florida Keys, Southwest Florida (near Naples), Northeast Florida (near Flagler Beach), and the Florida Panhandle (near Apalachicola, Florida).
•Fastest moving hurricane or tropical storm:Now the question here is what are the fastest moving storms? This is important because forward speed can impact both wind velocity and surge, and decrease the flooding from rain. The fastest recorded hurricane was "The Long Island Express" in 1938, a category 3 storm. It was travelling between 60 and 70 miles per hour!
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3666
Quoting washingtonian115:
HURRICANE JOKE TIME:(FOR FUN).

Q:Why did hurricane Jeanne make landfall three miles from where frances did?

A:Becuase she got lost on her way while playing follow the leader.

Get it anyone.No I didn't expect you to.



+10
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cchsweatherman:


I understand that fact. I'm just debating that the computer models show a defined tropical cyclone.


The chances of development aren't great, but it has more potential than any other wave we have seen this season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
HURRICANE JOKE TIME:(FOR FUN).

Q:Why did hurricane Jeanne make landfall three miles from where frances did?

A:Becuase she got lost on her way while playing follow the leader.

Get it anyone.No I didn't expect you to.



heh heh that was funny
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


1005 mb from CMC.


NOGAPS is defiantly showing a tropical cyclone, this comes straight from the Navy site too.
Link

The ECMWF and GFS appear to have trouble with this system, I think that might be because once this starts to consolidate it might be a fairly small system. However, the ECMWF is showing something attempting to develop but doesn't quite make it. Remember how terrible though the models have done with Bret, Cindy and Don but once they develop they where pretty accurate in track.


teddy you think the trough is going to recurve the storm?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


August 10.


There is no way we are going tohave a hurricane before that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
When does the first hurricane normally form?


Actually, when it wants to according to the favorable conditions...they have formed at the start of the season and gone past the traditional end of the season...june thru nov are just the most common times to see one
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3666
Quoting MississippiWx:


The models show potential. The only limiting factor is going to be dry air as shear is low for a while. The diffluence associated with the tropical wave interacting with the TUTT should actually help convection.

Apparently, you haven't learned that just because the models don't significantly show development doesn't mean we won't have a storm. One out of our 4 storms this season has been seen by the models. Of course, I will give you that this wave is on a much larger scale and can be more easily seen by the models.


I understand that fact. I'm just debating that the reliable computer models show a defined tropical cyclone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
52. SLU
Quoting cchsweatherman:


I'm looking at the same models everyone else is looking at. Pretty much all the models show at best a 1010 to 1012 mb low that comes in and out of the picture. This is definitely not suggestive of a tropical cyclone at all and shows marginally favorable conditions at best for development as well. I don't understand all the hype when all the reliable models show nothing significant at all with this tropical wave.


Neither did any of the reliable models show 1000mb with Don.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5367
Quoting angiest:


Emily is my 5 year old. She was about 6 months from being born during the last Emily. *That* one should have given us an indication of how she was going to turn out. ;)

Evacuating a 6 month pregnant wife is not fun (Rita).


good luck with emily!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
P451...So what your saying, that's a good thing, or no?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
When does the first hurricane normally form?


August 10.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32862
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


The hype is that it is a well-defined wave that only has SAL to deal with.


And will have the well established TUTT building in over the entire Central Atlantic as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cchsweatherman:


I'm looking at the same models everyone else is looking at. Pretty much all the models show at best a 1010 to 1012 mb low that comes in and out of the picture. This is definitely not suggestive of a tropical cyclone at all and shows marginally favorable conditions at best for development as well. I don't understand all the hype when all the reliable models show nothing significant at all with this tropical wave.


1005 mb from CMC.


NOGAPS is defiantly showing a tropical cyclone, this comes straight from the Navy site too.
Link

The ECMWF and GFS appear to have trouble with this system, I think that might be because once this starts to consolidate it might be a fairly small system. However, the ECMWF is showing something attempting to develop but doesn't quite make it. Remember how terrible though the models have done with Bret, Cindy and Don but once they develop they where pretty accurate in track.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HURRICANE JOKE TIME:(FOR FUN).

Q:Why did hurricane Jeanne make landfall three miles from where frances did?

A:Becuase she got lost on her way while playing follow the leader.

Get it anyone.No I didn't expect you to.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cchsweatherman:


I'm looking at the same models everyone else is looking at. Pretty much all the models show at best a 1010 to 1012 mb low that comes in and out of the picture. This is definitely not suggestive of a tropical cyclone at all and shows marginally favorable conditions at best for development as well. I don't understand all the hype when all the reliable models show nothing significant at all with this tropical wave.


The models show potential. The only limiting factor is going to be dry air as shear is low for a while. The diffluence associated with the tropical wave interacting with the TUTT should actually help convection.

Apparently, you haven't learned that just because the models don't significantly show development doesn't mean we won't have a storm. One out of our 4 storms this season has been seen by the models. Of course, I will give you that this wave is on a much larger scale and can be more easily seen by the models.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
When does the first hurricane normally form?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
When are conditions going to become more favorable for Don?

What do you think Don's wind speed will be at 5:00?

Conditions are already becomeing more favorable.
I'm going out on a limb and saying 50 for the wind speed
at the 8pm update and 55 at the 2am update.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cchsweatherman:


I'm looking at the same models everyone else is looking at. Pretty much all the models show at best a 1010 to 1012 mb low that comes in and out of the picture. This is definitely not suggestive of a tropical cyclone at all and shows marginally favorable conditions at best for development as well. I don't understand all the hype when all the reliable models show nothing significant at all with this tropical wave.


The hype is that it is a well-defined wave that only has SAL to deal with.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32862
Quoting weatherh98:


Emily is my sisters name.... thats gonna be a mean storm


Emily is my 5 year old. She was about 6 months from being born during the last Emily. *That* one should have given us an indication of how she was going to turn out. ;)

Evacuating a 6 month pregnant wife is not fun (Rita).
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting stoormfury:
cchs weatherman must be looking at other models. the consistent runs of the reliable models develop this catl area of disturbed weather, and brings it close to the antilles on mon afternoon. even the weather channel which some bloggers here have ridiculed is on board with the models


funny thing about the weather channel...they get their info from the same place as everyone else...and go by what the models predict...they cannot use gut instinct like the people on this blog...it could call for mass confusion and potentially dangerous scenerios...just saying
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3666
Quoting cchsweatherman:


I'm looking at the same models everyone else is looking at. Pretty much all the models show at best a 1010 to 1012 mb low that comes in and out of the picture. This is definitely not suggestive of a tropical cyclone at all and shows marginally favorable conditions at best for development as well. I don't understand all the hype when all the reliable models show nothing significant at all with this tropical wave.


the pressuresare already 1008
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stoormfury:
cchs weatherman must be looking at other models. the consistent runs of the reliable models develop this catl area of disturbed weather, and brings it close to the antilles on mon afternoon. even the weather channel which some bloggers here have ridiculed is on board with the models


Emily is my sisters name.... thats gonna be a mean storm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
When are conditions going to become more favorable for Don?

What do you think Don's wind speed will be at 5:00?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stoormfury:
cchs weatherman must be looking at other models. the consistent runs of the reliable models develop this catl area of disturbed weather, and brings it close to the antilles on mon afternoon. even the weather channel which some bloggers here have ridiculed is on board with the models


I'm looking at the same models everyone else is looking at. Pretty much all the models show at best a 1010 to 1012 mb low that comes in and out of the picture. This is definitely not suggestive of a tropical cyclone at all and shows marginally favorable conditions at best for development as well. I don't understand all the hype when all the reliable models show nothing significant at all with this tropical wave.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
lets have a little vote for fun. will the central atlantic wave a: recurve b: similar track like don into the carribean or c: affect the carribean and SE US coast. im going with D i dont know :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
hey Jeff Masters can you go back on Vacation we need storms too from



was not trying too be rude lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: Will we surpass 2010 in terms of total tropical cyclone numbers?

A. Yes
B. Maybe
C. Probably
D. Unlikely
E. No


Eh, we might tie it. If you'll remember back to last year, the conditions during August/September/October were nearly perfect for development, especially in the Eastern and Central Atlantic. A lot will depend on how many strong tropical waves we see emerging from Africa this year. Last year, we had a ton. This year has been lacking in the number/frequency of strong waves. The reason that we might tie last year's numbers is because of the 4 early storms we have had already. The MSLP forecast from the ECMWF for ASO looked remarkably similar to last season in the deep tropics, except a little more focused to the west with the negative anomalies. We'll see, but it's hard for the Atlantic to have back to back seasons of 19+ named systems.
------------------------------------------------- -----

c the season is off tosuch a fast pace it proly will
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If current trends continue, we may see a mention of the wave in the 8PM TWO. If not, we'll see a mention tomorrow. I also expect it to be declared an invest within the next 2 days or so. If the models are correct, we may have Emily by next Tuesday/Wednesday.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32862
Lookin a little more organized in the last few hours...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
cchs weatherman must be looking at other models. the consistent runs of the reliable models develop this catl area of disturbed weather, and brings it close to the antilles on mon afternoon. even the weather channel which some bloggers here have ridiculed is on board with the models
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks Doc. We can only hope Don brings relief to Texas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cchsweatherman:


The 12Z ECMWF shows at best a 1012 mb low closed for two separate frames. Wouldn't call that a tropical cyclone at all rather than just a tropical low.
Would have to agree. Shows that at the 24hr too




But it's obviously not going to be a tropical cyclone in 24hrs.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: Will we surpass 2010 in terms of total tropical cyclone numbers?

A. Yes
B. Maybe
C. Probably
D. Unlikely
E. No


Eh, we might tie it. If you'll remember back to last year, the conditions during August/September/October were nearly perfect for development, especially in the Eastern and Central Atlantic. A lot will depend on how many strong tropical waves we see emerging from Africa this year. Last year, we had a ton. This year has been lacking in the number/frequency of strong waves. The reason that we might tie last year's numbers is because of the 4 early storms we have had already. The MSLP forecast from the ECMWF for ASO looked remarkably similar to last season in the deep tropics, except a little more focused to the west with the negative anomalies. We'll see, but it's hard for the Atlantic to have back to back seasons of 19+ named systems.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hey Jeff Masters can you go back on Vacation we need storms too from
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


12Z shows the central Atlantic wave becoming a tropical cyclone and affecting the Bahamas before re-curving between the East Coast and Bermuda.


The 12Z ECMWF shows at best a 1012 mb low closed for two separate frames. Wouldn't call that a tropical cyclone at all rather than just a tropical low.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TomTaylor:
It's not necessarily stronger, the negative NAO actually indicates that the high is weaker than normal. The high is just more spread out than normal, which is typical of negative NAOs since a negative NAO means a weaker pressure gradient between the Azores high and Iceland Low. This implies a weaker Icelandic low, which means less troughing over the W Atlantic. This allows the high to expand westward more and means less opportunities for troughs to pull out storms over the tropical Atlantic.

Ohhh ok I'm not sure to take that as a relief or a scare.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MyrtleCanes:
Euro looks to be heating up on the SE coast in the next week or so

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwf.html

will be interesting to see the 12z


12Z shows the central Atlantic wave becoming a tropical cyclone and affecting the Bahamas before re-curving between the East Coast and Bermuda. Also shows possible activity off the SE Coast.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32862

Viewing: 71 - 21

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Light Rain
42 °F
Light Rain Mist

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron