Don battling dry air and wind shear

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:37 PM GMT on July 28, 2011

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Tropical Storm Don continues to be an unimpressive low-end tropical storm as it continues northwest towards the Texas coast. Don formed yesterday afternoon from an African tropical wave that moved into the Gulf of Mexico under a region of low wind shear. Don's formation date of July 27 is nearly a month ahead of the usual August 23 date for the arrival of the season's fourth named storm of the year. There is currently no hurricane hunter airplane in Don, and a new airplane is not due in the storm until tonight. The last center fix at 1pm EDT found surface winds of 45 mph and a central pressure of 1005 mb, a 4 mb rise from earlier this morning. Water vapor satellite images show a region of dry air to the northwest of Don, over the western Gulf of Mexico. Wind shear as diagnosed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group and the SHIPS model show a moderate 5 - 15 knots of shear from strong upper level winds out of the north. This shear is creating problems for Don by injecting dry air into the system. Visible satellite imagery from early this afternoon showed the presence of surface arc-shaped clouds expanding outwards to the north from the center of Don. These type of clouds are a sign that the storm is struggling with dry air. When dry air at middle levels of the atmosphere gets injected into thunderstorms due to wind shear, the dry air tends to create strong downdrafts that rob the storm of moisture. These downdrafts spread out at the ocean surface and create arc-shaped surface cumulus clouds.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Don from pm EDT July 28, 2011, showing arc-shaped surface clouds--the tell-tale sign of dry air interfering with the storm's organization.


Figure 2. The latest drought map for Texas shows that over 75% of the state is in exceptional drought--the highest category of drought. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Forecast for Don
The big question for Don is, will it bring significant rains to Texas? According to the National Climatic Data Center, the six-month period ending in June 2011 was the driest on record. Average rain between January and June was more than eight inches (203 millimeters) below average in Texas, and the state experienced record heat between April and June. The heat and lack of rain have brought exceptional drought--the highest category of drought--to over 75% of the state. Don has the potential to bring some decent drought-busting rains to the state. If Don can expand in size and intensify to a 50 - 55 mph tropical storm, it has the capability to bring hundreds of millions of dollars worth of beneficial rains to the state. We don't want Don to stay in its current state, which is too small and weak to bring significant rains to Texas. If Don follows the current NHC forecast, which brings the storm up to a moderate-strength tropical storm, that would be just right. Don's small size makes it prone to dry air and wind shear, though, and it is uncertain whether the storm can overcome these problems enough to become a significant rain maker. NHC gave Don a 12% chance of intensifying into a hurricane in the 11am advisory, which is a reasonable forecast, since Don is running out of time to get its act together in time to become a hurricane. None of the computer models is predicting Don will become a hurricane.

For those of you wondering about your odds of experiencing tropical storm force winds, I recommend NHC's wind probability forecast. The 11 am version of this forecast shows that Port O'Connor, Texas has the highest chance of tropical storm-force winds (39+ mph): 45%.

New hurricane archive search feature
The autocomplete entities in the wunderground search box has been extended to include hurricanes, so you can now search for a storm by name, year, or basin. Here are some examples in case you feel like exploring your new options:

By name:

Hurricane David - Atlantic, 1979
David, Major Hurricane - Atlantic, 1979
Major Hurricane David - Atlantic, 1979

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2005 Hurricanes Atlantic
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Hurricanes Western Pacific 2011
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Tropical Storms Atlantic 2005
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I'll have a new post Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting stormpetrol:


I'm watching that one real close could be TD by saturday and a TS sunday IMO.


Well, it already has a closed circulation. What it needs now is convection and wind speeds.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30241
Hey Levi-

Have you noticed the SSTs recently? They are warmer than this time last year. What are your thoughts on how that will effect the rest of the season?

July 27, 2011


July 27, 2010
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ameister12:so basically the pressure never dropped nor rose
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1102
Quoting TomTaylor:
ah yeah, maybe that's it.

What is the OSCAT? Is it not the ASCAT?


idk, I just remember somebody mentioning OSCAT or something like that, than Levi talking about how it isn't that accurate.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30241
110:00 PM CDT Thu Jul 28
Location: 24.7°N 92.5°W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: WNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
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Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
look at 40 west!!


I'm watching that one real close could be TD by saturday and a TS sunday IMO.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
NASA satellite showing big burst starting over near the center with very cold high cloudtops
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1363. GHOSTY1
want2lrn, there the experts but i say thats some crazy idea they got in there heads but i still expect CC or Rockport, Tx landfall but thats just my opinion and im sticking to it.
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The forecast says Don should make landfall just south of Corpus Christi. Great, if this storm had "normal" structure. Problem is, most of the convection is SOUTH of the center. There is an area northeast of the CDO trying to wrap into the storm but other than that, the present forecast would give us about diddly squat.
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1361. angiest
Quoting RitaEvac:
Significant expansion of tropical storm winds

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES...160 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER


At 7PM it was 85 miles.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Was it OSCAT(?)?
ah yeah, maybe that's it.

EDIT- that was it. The OSCAT.

What is the OSCAT? Is it not the ASCAT? What's the difference between the two? Besides the first letter lol
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Quoting RitaEvac:
North and east of center? the rain and convection is S and SE of center
yes, interesting isn't it.

Most likely due to the high to the east, creating the strongest pressure gradient on that side of the storm.
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Quoting GHOSTY1:
100 miles out are you sure? That seems pretty large increase from 45 miles so doesn't that show an important increase in strength that everyone said he lost.


what the NHC said in statement
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Quick Don interruption before I head to bed: Wave at 8N 40W is just starting to get into waters with THCP values over 50.

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1356. GHOSTY1
Why do they keep moving it further and further south are they losing their minds the storm isnt moving west its moving more northwest
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Just an FYI for you all, local met just came on with the 10 coordinates. Saying what you all have been saying about intensity, BUT, moved the cone significantly to the south. We (Corpus) are in the upper portion of the cone now instead of in the middle and he hinted that we may see very little effects? Thoughts from anyone?
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1353. GHOSTY1
100 miles out are you sure? That seems pretty large increase from 45 miles so doesn't that show an important increase in strength that everyone said he lost.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Ok then which product or satellite was it that was giving wind vectors relative to the storm?


Was it OSCAT(?)?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30241
1351. HCW
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
North and east of center? the rain and convection is S and SE of center
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
That should explain the "weakening".

TROPICAL STORM DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
1000 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011

BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES HAVE BEEN
INVESTIGATING TROPICAL STORM DON AND FOUND THAT THE CYCLONE HAD
JOGGED TO THE WEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THAT THE CYCLONE
IS A LITTLE BIT STRONGER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURES REPORTED BY
NOAA AND AIR FORCE PLANE EARLIER THIS EVENING WERE 996 AND 998
RESPECTIVELY. MORE RECENTLY A HIGHER PRESSURE WAS REPORTED BUT THE
DROPSONDE DID NOT HIT THE VERY SMALL CENTER.
SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0 AND 3.5 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE. THE INITIAL HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS PRIMARILY
BASED ON A BELIEVABLE 43-KNOT SFMR REPORT. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY SHEAR AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
STILL TILTED SOUTHWARD WITH HEIGHT AS REPORTED BY BOTH PLANES.
SINCE NO SIGNIFICANT DECREASE OF THE SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED AND THE
CYCLONE IS INTERACTING WITH DRY AIR OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE
LANDFALL. IN FACT NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST IMPORTANT CHANGES IN
INTENSITY.

DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...DON HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST AND
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 KNOTS. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES HAS BEEN CONTROLLING THE TRACK OF THE
CYCLONE. SINCE THIS HIGH IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
TO PERSIST...A CONTINUATION OF A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT AND THIS DUE TO THE INITIAL WESTWARD JOG AND
NOT DUE TO ANY IMPORTANT CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN. GIVEN THE
SMALL SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

INTERESTS IN EXTREME NORTHEAST MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DON. AN UNEXPECTED SMALL DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE
TRACK COULD NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF WARNINGS FOR THE EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yep

SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM DON IS CENTERED NEAR 24.7N 91.8W AT 29/0000 UTC
OR ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS...OR ABOUT
365 MI...590 KM ESE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MOVING WNW AT 14 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. DON HAS 10-15 KT OF
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE STORM. DRY AIR IS ALSO
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT HELPS IMPEDE
INTENSIFICATION. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY S OF THE CENTER FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN
91W-94W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER
TO THE LOUISIANA COAST FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 88W-92W. SEE LATEST
NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1347. j2008
Quoting GHOSTY1:
j2008 i understand what your saying and i have been saying this the whole time, everytime Don looks good, everybody jumps on the Don is back bandwagon, but when Don weakens everybody jumps off and condemns him to death, I'm gonna stick with him all the way!!!

You would think with Dons history of being a fighter that people would be more patient with him. I wouldnt be surprised if he throws out another curve ball at us.
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
Quoting RitaEvac:
Damn now out to 100 miles, much better than that 45 miles...

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES...160 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER


that what i say don isn't that small as it might appear
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
Significant expansion of tropical storm winds

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES...160 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Yeah but ASCAT measures relative to the Earth's surface. Here it's closed.
Ok then which product or satellite was it that was giving wind vectors relative to the storm?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

10:00 PM CDT Thu Jul 28
Location: 24.7°N 92.5°W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: WNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
Hey Levi-

Have you noticed the SSTs recently? They are warmer than this time last year. What are your thoughts on how that will effect the rest of the season?

July 27, 2011


July 27, 2010
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1341. WxLogic
Quoting GHOSTY1:
Like somebody said in the past on this blog said the closer it heads to the coast it will probably gain strength rapidly. Question: What are the chances that Don will impact Houston since it seemed like it made a more northwest turn?


Don is not making any NW turns any time soon. The spreading Bermuda High is quickly filling the void in the E and C GOM. I don't expect Cindy to directly affect areas north of Corpus Cristi.

Current steering suggest W to WNW motion:



Also, most of the WX with Don will be confined to the SE and S of the center.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1340. Levi32
Quoting TomTaylor:
Levi mentioned something a few days ago about those vectors being storm relative...meaning the wind on the south side (from the west) must be moving faster than the actual motion of the wave for it to actually be a true closed circulation.


Or something along those lines if I recall correctly...

...requesting backup! Levi, where you at? Care to explain this one?


Yeah but ASCAT measures relative to the Earth's surface. Here it's closed.
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1339. GHOSTY1
j2008 i understand what your saying and i have been saying this the whole time, everytime Don looks good, everybody jumps on the Don is back bandwagon, but when Don weakens everybody jumps off and condemns him to death, I'm gonna stick with him all the way!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Damn now out to 100 miles, much better than that 45 miles...

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES...160 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
That was not a center fix.
Quoting Patrap:
1003mb confirms what we been seeing for the last 1.5 hours..

A weakening trend
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1336. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
04L/TS/D/Cx



weakening flag flag
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52173
1003 MB. didn't hit the center.

Don isn't weakening.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30241
Quoting SLU:
Closed.



Levi mentioned something a few days ago about those vectors being storm relative...meaning the wind on the south side (from the west) must be moving faster than the actual motion of the wave for it to actually be a true closed circulation.


Or something along those lines if I recall correctly...

...requesting backup! Levi, where you at? Care to explain this one?

edit: mmmmk nvm it's closed!
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1333. j2008
Quoting SLU:
Closed.




IS that our soon to be 91L and possibly Emily? WOW we gotta watch her close, I gotta bad feeling about her.
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
Don't go too much by the mb wait and see what 9pm say 50mph 999mb i suspect!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
000
WTNT44 KNHC 290232
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
1000 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011

BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES HAVE BEEN
INVESTIGATING TROPICAL STORM DON AND FOUND THAT THE CYCLONE HAD
JOGGED TO THE WEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THAT THE CYCLONE
IS A LITTLE BIT STRONGER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURES REPORTED BY
NOAA AND AIR FORCE PLANE EARLIER THIS EVENING WERE 996 AND 998
RESPECTIVELY. MORE RECENTLY A HIGHER PRESSURE WAS REPORTED BUT THE
DROPSONDE DID NOT HIT THE VERY SMALL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0 AND 3.5 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE. THE INITIAL HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS PRIMARILY
BASED ON A BELIEVABLE 43-KNOT SFMR REPORT. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY SHEAR AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
STILL TILTED SOUTHWARD WITH HEIGHT AS REPORTED BY BOTH PLANES.
SINCE NO SIGNIFICANT DECREASE OF THE SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED AND THE
CYCLONE IS INTERACTING WITH DRY AIR OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE
LANDFALL. IN FACT NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST IMPORTANT CHANGES IN
INTENSITY.

DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...DON HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST AND
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 KNOTS. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES HAS BEEN CONTROLLING THE TRACK OF THE
CYCLONE. SINCE THIS HIGH IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
TO PERSIST...A CONTINUATION OF A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT AND THIS DUE TO THE INITIAL WESTWARD JOG AND
NOT DUE TO ANY IMPORTANT CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN. GIVEN THE
SMALL SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

INTERESTS IN EXTREME NORTHEAST MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DON. AN UNEXPECTED SMALL DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE
TRACK COULD NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF WARNINGS FOR THE EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 24.7N 92.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 25.5N 94.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 26.6N 96.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 27.5N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 31/0000Z 28.5N 101.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19117
Misinformation gets you banned here buddy.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
11 PM Advisory for DON:
Tropical Storm Don:
45 mph
1003 MB
moving WNW
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTNT34 KNHC 290232
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DON ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
1000 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011

...DON HEADING TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 92.5W
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM ESE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE TEXAS COAST SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD
TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TEXAS COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF RIO GRANDE TO SAN LUIS PASS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.5 WEST. DON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL LATE FRIDAY OR
EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED
BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE TEXAS COAST. A GRADUAL WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES...160 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS
998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY LATE FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL...MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES.

RAINFALL...DON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST WESTWARD INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Quoting TampaSpin:



Actually the Lower Levels has been a problem as well as Shear. The system has had very poor Convergence since birth. Watch the Convergence pick up now since we have a nice Red ball.....REally for the first time.
Some of the deepest convection he's had when over open water, well away from the coast.

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1327. GHOSTY1
Don's core is pretty well defined it isn't that ugly looking. (no pun intended)
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50 mph, 998 mb.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30241
1325. SLU
Closed.



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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Don's gonna have to muster up some convergence to be able to sustain these bursts of energy. Kinda like pinching off the gas line in a car. It will run for a little bit then fade fast.

This can't be correct. In fact, it defies logic at this point.
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Upper level winds are looking quite nice for Don



still pushing a little air toward the system to the north, but for the most part we have anticyclonic flow aloft.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1322. j2008
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Don is pathetic even comparing him to Bret...

Gotta love this, an hour ago we were all congradulating Don and saying how impressive he was, now were back to calling him names and compareing him to storms that you will never hear again. Only on the blog.
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
1321. Patrap
G'night wunder folk

Don Tejas...

Maybe google the term "astroturfing" for a Heads up on a trend.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125476

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.