Don battling dry air and wind shear

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:37 PM GMT on July 28, 2011

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Tropical Storm Don continues to be an unimpressive low-end tropical storm as it continues northwest towards the Texas coast. Don formed yesterday afternoon from an African tropical wave that moved into the Gulf of Mexico under a region of low wind shear. Don's formation date of July 27 is nearly a month ahead of the usual August 23 date for the arrival of the season's fourth named storm of the year. There is currently no hurricane hunter airplane in Don, and a new airplane is not due in the storm until tonight. The last center fix at 1pm EDT found surface winds of 45 mph and a central pressure of 1005 mb, a 4 mb rise from earlier this morning. Water vapor satellite images show a region of dry air to the northwest of Don, over the western Gulf of Mexico. Wind shear as diagnosed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group and the SHIPS model show a moderate 5 - 15 knots of shear from strong upper level winds out of the north. This shear is creating problems for Don by injecting dry air into the system. Visible satellite imagery from early this afternoon showed the presence of surface arc-shaped clouds expanding outwards to the north from the center of Don. These type of clouds are a sign that the storm is struggling with dry air. When dry air at middle levels of the atmosphere gets injected into thunderstorms due to wind shear, the dry air tends to create strong downdrafts that rob the storm of moisture. These downdrafts spread out at the ocean surface and create arc-shaped surface cumulus clouds.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Don from pm EDT July 28, 2011, showing arc-shaped surface clouds--the tell-tale sign of dry air interfering with the storm's organization.


Figure 2. The latest drought map for Texas shows that over 75% of the state is in exceptional drought--the highest category of drought. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Forecast for Don
The big question for Don is, will it bring significant rains to Texas? According to the National Climatic Data Center, the six-month period ending in June 2011 was the driest on record. Average rain between January and June was more than eight inches (203 millimeters) below average in Texas, and the state experienced record heat between April and June. The heat and lack of rain have brought exceptional drought--the highest category of drought--to over 75% of the state. Don has the potential to bring some decent drought-busting rains to the state. If Don can expand in size and intensify to a 50 - 55 mph tropical storm, it has the capability to bring hundreds of millions of dollars worth of beneficial rains to the state. We don't want Don to stay in its current state, which is too small and weak to bring significant rains to Texas. If Don follows the current NHC forecast, which brings the storm up to a moderate-strength tropical storm, that would be just right. Don's small size makes it prone to dry air and wind shear, though, and it is uncertain whether the storm can overcome these problems enough to become a significant rain maker. NHC gave Don a 12% chance of intensifying into a hurricane in the 11am advisory, which is a reasonable forecast, since Don is running out of time to get its act together in time to become a hurricane. None of the computer models is predicting Don will become a hurricane.

For those of you wondering about your odds of experiencing tropical storm force winds, I recommend NHC's wind probability forecast. The 11 am version of this forecast shows that Port O'Connor, Texas has the highest chance of tropical storm-force winds (39+ mph): 45%.

New hurricane archive search feature
The autocomplete entities in the wunderground search box has been extended to include hurricanes, so you can now search for a storm by name, year, or basin. Here are some examples in case you feel like exploring your new options:

By name:

Hurricane David - Atlantic, 1979
David, Major Hurricane - Atlantic, 1979
Major Hurricane David - Atlantic, 1979

By year:

2005 Hurricanes Atlantic
2007 Hurricanes Eastern Pacific

By basin:

Hurricanes Western Pacific 2011
Hurricanes Atlantic 2008

By category:

Tropical Storms Atlantic 2005
Tropical Depressions Indian Ocean 2011
Subtropical Storms Eastern Pacific 2010
Extratropical Storms Western Pacific 1988

I'll have a new post Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Tygor:
Wow I can't believe this isn't going to affect Central Texas. I thought for sure it would get us.


I was also holding onto to hope that we would get some further North. You just glare at the grass and it curls up into little yellow needles and combusts. Okay, that is a bit exaggerated but there are many ranches and farms here that could use a good rain. Oh well, will wait and watch.
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1670. jpsb
Outta here night all
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1669. GHOSTY1
If i forget to say good night to anyone, i was thinking it.
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1668. GHOSTY1
Floridian2011, you happy for the fast start to the season?
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1667. pottery
Quoting SLU:
Buckle up. The ride has began .......

622

WHXX01 KWBC 290412

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0412 UTC FRI JUL 29 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912011) 20110729 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110729 0000 110729 1200 110730 0000 110730 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 8.3N 39.5W 8.8N 41.2W 9.9N 43.2W 11.2N 46.0W

BAMD 8.3N 39.5W 9.0N 41.3W 10.1N 43.1W 11.4N 45.1W

BAMM 8.3N 39.5W 8.8N 41.3W 9.9N 43.0W 11.2N 44.9W

LBAR 8.3N 39.5W 8.8N 42.3W 9.9N 45.2W 11.0N 48.2W

SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 33KTS 40KTS

DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 33KTS 40KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110731 0000 110801 0000 110802 0000 110803 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 12.7N 49.3W 14.9N 55.9W 16.2N 62.6W 17.3N 68.4W

BAMD 12.7N 47.1W 14.7N 51.3W 16.1N 55.1W 18.0N 57.6W

BAMM 12.5N 47.1W 14.2N 52.0W 15.4N 57.1W 17.4N 61.8W

LBAR 12.6N 51.0W 14.9N 56.0W 15.9N 60.1W 14.5N 66.2W

SHIP 48KTS 63KTS 72KTS 76KTS

DSHP 48KTS 63KTS 72KTS 76KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 8.3N LONCUR = 39.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 17KT

LATM12 = 8.0N LONM12 = 36.1W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 17KT

LATM24 = 7.8N LONM24 = 32.6W

WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


For what it's worth at this early stage, that is showing a pretty consistent WNW movement.

Early days...
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GFS develops 91L over the Lesser Antilles.

This is going to be a good one.
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Quoting angiest:


Not familiar with the small scale features, sorry! But just to look at it, something that small will not produce anything large. It could conceivably generate a localized tsunami, but I don't have enough information to base anything concrete on.

On that note, it is past time for me to get to bed. Night all.


Thanks for your comments... and explanations...
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Quoting jpsb:
I've been thinking the same but keeping my mouth shut :)


Lol. Wouldn't be the first time my mouth gets me in trouble or fingers as it were. :)
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Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
my god look at the t.storms now some black colors under the red in the center to.
jason show me the probability map again. need to see something right quick
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1662. GHOSTY1
im just wonderin' whats goin to happen to Don when i wake tomorrow mornin' and what 91L will be seasons getting off to a fast start (and yes im kinda late to start saying this)? Does anyone still think a hurricane Don by tomorrow?
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A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

If it keeps moving 20 mph it will be near PR around Aug 3rd...
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Quoting pottery:

Post 1575 shows the existing Steering for that.
Increased organisation could help send it more North, but all is guesswork right now.
It could fizzle out tomorrow.....
I dont think it will fizzle because it has been really holding up really good lately. This mite be one to watch real soon.
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1658. nigel20
Quoting GHOSTY1:
Good night nigel!
Night, don is firing up convection again
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1657. SLU
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL912011 07/29/11 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 33 40 48 57 63 68 72 75 76
V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 33 40 48 57 63 68 72 75 76
V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 27 33 40 46 52 58 64 69 73
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 6 10 9 7 3 2 5 2 9 11 16 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -3 -4 -1 3 4 2 -1 0 -8 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 42 68 72 64 118 236 258 245 234 264 258 N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.7 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8
POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 138 137 136 132 134 139 143 146 146 148 149
ADJ. POT. INT. 145 139 139 137 136 132 134 138 142 145 143 145 144
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -52.5 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 72 74 74 71 69 60 63 57 54 56 55 N/A N/A
GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 10 12 13 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 57 58 49 39 31 5 10 13 30 36 49 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 50 49 64 78 73 39 64 39 64 47 64 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 -1 -2 -3 0 1 3 5 2 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1242 1223 1206 1155 1112 1061 1026 989 969 817 662 621 424
LAT (DEG N) 8.3 8.6 8.8 9.4 9.9 11.2 12.5 13.5 14.2 14.7 15.4 16.2 17.4
LONG(DEG W) 39.5 40.4 41.3 42.2 43.0 44.9 47.1 49.6 52.0 54.6 57.1 59.5 61.8
STM SPEED (KT) 13 9 10 10 11 12 13 12 12 13 12 13 12
HEAT CONTENT 44 43 39 39 38 33 39 53 68 75 67 75 58

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 470 (MEAN=623)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
-------------------------------------------------- --------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 34. 37. 39.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 12. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
-------------------------------------------------- --------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 28. 37. 43. 48. 52. 55. 56.

** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912011 INVEST 07/29/11 00 UTC **

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.8%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912011 INVEST 07/29/11 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912011 INVEST 07/29/2011 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4857
Vortex Message

000
URNT12 KNHC 290415
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042011
A. 29/03:41:40Z
B. 24 deg 42 min N
092 deg 27 min W
C. 850 mb 1465 m
D. 34 kt
E. 223 deg 32 nm
F. 304 deg 17 kt
G. 224 deg 42 nm
H. EXTRAP 1001 mb
I. 17 C / 1524 m
J. 26 C / 1517 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 0404A DON OB 14
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 46 KT NE QUAD 03:58:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
;
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1655. Gearsts
Where's levy?
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1654. jpsb
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Ummmm? Is Don going to make it as far north as Texas? Kinda looks like it's headed west into Mexico on that loop. Why wouldn't that surprise me. Sigh.
I've been thinking the same but keeping my mouth shut :)
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1653. JRRP
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Not bad.

S
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1652. GHOSTY1
Good night nigel!
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1650. angiest
Quoting sunlinepr:

What about a slide of the Arecibo amphitheater, (that area thas has already slipped down into the PR trench, north of Arecibo... Can that produce a big quake?



Not familiar with the small scale features, sorry! But just to look at it, something that small will not produce anything large. It could conceivably generate a localized tsunami, but I don't have enough information to base anything concrete on.

On that note, it is past time for me to get to bed. Night all.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Wave high model

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al912011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107290409
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2011, DB, O, 2011072900, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912011
AL, 91, 2011072800, , BEST, 0, 78N, 326W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072806, , BEST, 0, 79N, 343W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072812, , BEST, 0, 80N, 361W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072818, , BEST, 0, 81N, 378W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072900, , BEST, 0, 83N, 395W, 20, 1009, LO

Hello 91L


Things getting very busy all a sudden.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1647. GHOSTY1
91L sounds like its off for to a good start, wonder what it will do?
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1646. nigel20
Night everyone, the wave in the CATL is invest91 on tropical weather underground home page
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Quoting taco2me61:


WestNorthWest at this time....

But I'm wondering does this get to TD before Aug 1????

Taco :o)
oh crap i see 91L now u guys are right it is going west.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1644. pottery
Quoting TampaSpin:
We now have INVEST 91L

Well Well Well!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SHIPS shows pretty low shear for 91L during the next several days. Brings it up to hurricane status.
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1642. SLU
Buckle up. The ride has began .......

622

WHXX01 KWBC 290412

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0412 UTC FRI JUL 29 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912011) 20110729 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110729 0000 110729 1200 110730 0000 110730 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 8.3N 39.5W 8.8N 41.2W 9.9N 43.2W 11.2N 46.0W

BAMD 8.3N 39.5W 9.0N 41.3W 10.1N 43.1W 11.4N 45.1W

BAMM 8.3N 39.5W 8.8N 41.3W 9.9N 43.0W 11.2N 44.9W

LBAR 8.3N 39.5W 8.8N 42.3W 9.9N 45.2W 11.0N 48.2W

SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 33KTS 40KTS

DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 33KTS 40KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110731 0000 110801 0000 110802 0000 110803 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 12.7N 49.3W 14.9N 55.9W 16.2N 62.6W 17.3N 68.4W

BAMD 12.7N 47.1W 14.7N 51.3W 16.1N 55.1W 18.0N 57.6W

BAMM 12.5N 47.1W 14.2N 52.0W 15.4N 57.1W 17.4N 61.8W

LBAR 12.6N 51.0W 14.9N 56.0W 15.9N 60.1W 14.5N 66.2W

SHIP 48KTS 63KTS 72KTS 76KTS

DSHP 48KTS 63KTS 72KTS 76KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 8.3N LONCUR = 39.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 17KT

LATM12 = 8.0N LONM12 = 36.1W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 17KT

LATM24 = 7.8N LONM24 = 32.6W

WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN

Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4857
91L, cant wait to see model runs with it.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23565
Quoting angiest:


To the north of PR is a transform (strike-slip) boundary between the Caribbean Plate and the North American Plate....

What about a slide of the Arecibo amphitheater, (that area thas has already slipped down into the PR trench, north of Arecibo... Can that produce a big quake?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sunlinepr:


Ummmm? Is Don going to make it as far north as Texas? Kinda looks like it's headed west into Mexico on that loop. Why wouldn't that surprise me. Sigh.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting angiest:


No reason to expect anything other than generally west for the next few days. Far enough south not to feel the weakness in the ridge to its north. Beyond that, too early to say.
do we expect an invest? Because it looks good to become one
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1637. GHOSTY1
Quoting j2008:
BTW Don already has a sub 1000 pressure. its 998, I expect by the next update it will be 996 or 997. I dont expect it to rise any, Don hasnt shown any weakening and in fact this new burst probably will strengthen it even more before the update. Love to hear your feedback on my analysis.


I agree with your prediction i believe this is the start of the new Don, whoever gets rain i hope it falls in the perfect amount.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
I will set up the graphics of the Invest in my website before bed. NITE ALL


Thanks Tampa :o)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1635. pottery
Quoting bigwes6844:
where does anyone think that the tropical wave that is in the ATL right now will head towards.

Post 1575 shows the existing Steering for that.
Increased organisation could help send it more North, but all is guesswork right now.
It could fizzle out tomorrow.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1633. GHOSTY1
Quoting OceanBlue78:


Its like that here in Pearland...one day I went outside, got in my gpas truck, looked at the house and was like huh? Got out, the brick around the garage leaned to the right, breaking the fascia board and pulling away from the wood around the garage door. 2 years ago the heat and dryness cracked our newly installed tile floor, and there are cracks in the sheetrock now. Thank God for the few crazy thunderstorms we have had, but we still need 15-20 inches of rain to catch up. Don was some hope, but now really no hope.


yeah when i leave for college there gonna have to destroy my room to work under the house to fix our major foundation problem. I cant wait for the next rainmaker to stop the damage in texas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al912011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107290409
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2011, DB, O, 2011072900, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912011
AL, 91, 2011072800, , BEST, 0, 78N, 326W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072806, , BEST, 0, 79N, 343W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072812, , BEST, 0, 80N, 361W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072818, , BEST, 0, 81N, 378W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072900, , BEST, 0, 83N, 395W, 20, 1009, LO

Hello 91L


Good...Now, we can get runs from the GFDL and HWRF.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1631. j2008
YAY 91L!!! You have arived!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1630. JLPR2
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al912011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107290409
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2011, DB, O, 2011072900, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912011
AL, 91, 2011072800, , BEST, 0, 78N, 326W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072806, , BEST, 0, 79N, 343W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072812, , BEST, 0, 80N, 361W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072818, , BEST, 0, 81N, 378W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072900, , BEST, 0, 83N, 395W, 20, 1009, LO

Hello 91L


And so it begins. xD
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I will set up the graphics of the Invest in my website before bed. NITE ALL
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Quoting bigwes6844:
where does anyone think that the tropical wave that is in the ATL right now will head towards.


WestNorthWest at this time....

But I'm wondering does this get to TD before Aug 1????

Taco :o)
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1627. Ryuujin
Quoting bigwes6844:
where does anyone think that the tropical wave that is in the ATL right now will head towards.


I'm guessing West.
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BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al912011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107290409
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2011, DB, O, 2011072900, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912011
AL, 91, 2011072800, , BEST, 0, 78N, 326W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072806, , BEST, 0, 79N, 343W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072812, , BEST, 0, 80N, 361W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072818, , BEST, 0, 81N, 378W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072900, , BEST, 0, 83N, 395W, 20, 1009, LO

Hello 91L
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We now have INVEST 91L
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1623. angiest
Quoting bigwes6844:
where does anyone think that the tropical wave that is in the ATL right now will head towards.


No reason to expect anything other than generally west for the next few days. Far enough south not to feel the weakness in the ridge to its north. Beyond that, too early to say.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
where does anyone think that the tropical wave that is in the ATL right now will head towards.
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1621. GHOSTY1
MTWX i understand what people got so angry about but i mean they shouldn't have assumed and jumped to conclusions, im no sadistic person who wants death and destruction i dont want death or destruction just a large very wet system. But thank you for simplifying that for me i better watch what i post. Kudos for simplifying it with me because some of the others didnt want to be rational about it.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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