Tropical Storm Don forms in the Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:29 PM GMT on July 27, 2011

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Tropical Storm Don, the fourth tropical cyclone of the 2011 season, has formed in the Gulf of Mexico just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane Hunters began investigating the system earlier this afternoon and quickly found a closed surface circulation. As the mission continued to gather data from what was thought to be a tropical depression at the time, winds of around 39 mph were found, as well as a 1001 mb central pressure, bringing the system up to tropical storm strength.


Figure 1. Satellite loop of Tropical Storm Don. This loop will stay current.

The official forecast for Don agrees with what most of the models have been suggesting over the past 24 hours. Don will make its way toward the northwest over the next 48 hours before making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Galveston. The statistical models tend to suggest a more southerly track toward Brownsville, and the dynamical models are forecasting anything from Corpus Christi to Galveston. They all tend to agree landfall will occur late on the 29th (Friday night). Whether or not Don will reach hurricane status is still in question. The Hurricane Center's initial forecast is that Don will remain a tropical storm until landfall. Today some models were intensifying Don to a strong tropical storm, but none crossed the hurricane threshold. Now that we have data from aircraft reconnaissance, the models will be able to get a better handle on potential intensity. The runs that occur later tonight and early tomorrow will have much less uncertainty than those from today.


Figure 2. Model forecast tracks for Tropical Storm Don as of Wednesday afternoon.

I believe Jeff will be back tomorrow for an update.

Angela

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If there is any one thing I can say about Don, it is this: As much as we need the rain here in Texas, I just don't have much hope for it being the real drought buster that we all wish for.

Texas Drought > Don

Regardless, we will gladly accept any help we can get!
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Don's environment.

GOES Atmospheric Animations - Earth Scan Laboratory, LSU
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1324. scott39
Don needs to get the heck away from the Yucatan!
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1323. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 JUL 2011 Time : 041500 UTC
Lat : 22:54:45 N Lon : 88:17:57 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 998.0mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.7 2.5 2.5

Center Temp : -11.2C Cloud Region Temp : -21.8C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.33 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG


C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 40km
- Environmental MSLP : 1013mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 30.7 degrees


its not going to dissipate
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55972
1322. scott39
Don looks to be moving NW. But looks can be deceiving.
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Quoting TXEER:
I live in Kingwood just North of Houston. We need rain badly but Don will not get here...why?

Because after Ike my wife told me that if we were going to stay in this God forsaken place that we were going to get a natural gas generator.

So $8,000 later and 22,000 btu's ready to fire up...i can assure you Don will by pass us.

My neighbors call that generator the no hurricane guarantee!
You can bet if the power goes out for any reason-guess where your neighbors will be?
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 JUL 2011 Time : 041500 UTC
Lat : 22:54:45 N Lon : 88:17:57 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 998.0mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.7 2.5 2.5

Center Temp : -11.2C Cloud Region Temp : -21.8C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.33 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG


C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 40km
- Environmental MSLP : 1013mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 30.7 per degrees


I've seen that with a rapidly intensifying system..i wouldn't put too much into it just yet...
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1317. TXEER
I live in Kingwood just North of Houston. We need rain badly but Don will not get here...why?

Because after Ike my wife told me that if we were going to stay in this God forsaken place that we were going to get a natural gas generator.

So $8,000 later and 22,000 btu's ready to fire up...i can assure you Don will by pass us.

My neighbors call that generator the no hurricane guarantee!
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I wouldn't be surprised if Don is downgraded to a tropical depression until it becomes better organized.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 JUL 2011 Time : 041500 UTC
Lat : 22:54:45 N Lon : 88:17:57 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 998.0mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.7 2.5 2.5

Center Temp : -11.2C Cloud Region Temp : -21.8C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.33 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG


C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 40km
- Environmental MSLP : 1013mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 30.7 degrees
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Quoting sarahjola:
no one on here thinks that the current movement of all the storms and clouds are a sign of shift in track and maybe even that don does not have enough power to stay on course? i mean look at wv or even unenhanced. i can't see how don could go against the movement of everything else in the gulf that are around the same area as don or off to the west of don. could someone with more knowledge explain? tia


Forecasting a weak, not yet fully formed tropical cyclone is sketchy at best. When you have lower level and midlevel circulation stacked, with a well established eye, then we can talk about models. Currently, the models are a computer's best guess based on sketchy and differing assumptions. Tomorrow, we may not have to make as many assumptions.
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checked the alerts for coast, we are just about in the middle - so rain??? yea-put up a fence to keep the wind out
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so if it stays weak until it hits the central gulf then where does it go from there? don seems to be doing really bad right now and moving pretty slow. if it gains strength in the central gulf will it take a sharp left turn, or will it go from moving nnw to nw or wnw?tia
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1310. jdb777
A lot of Marine Corps motivation on this blog tonight. That being said, keep in mind the Marines in southern Afghanistan summer fighting season, with combat loads of 100 lbs. and 130 degree Fahrenheit heat index's. A little bit of TS Don would be much appreciated to them.

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Big down burst the other day in MA.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
705 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2011

...NWS METEOROLOGISTS CONDUCTED A SURVEY OF STORM DAMAGE FROM
HOLYOKE TO WILBRAHAM IN HAMPDEN COUNTY MASSACHUSETTS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN TAUNTON MA CONDUCTED A STORM
SURVEY FOR THE WILBRAHAM AND SPRINGFIELD AREAS IN HAMPDEN COUNTY
MASSACHUSETTS. THIS SURVEY WAS IN RELATION TO THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON OF JULY 26 2011.

THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF WIND DAMAGE WAS FOUND IN THE TOWN OF
WILBRAHAM. THE GREATEST DAMAGE WAS ALONG AN APPROXIMATELY 2 MILE
LONG PATH WHICH EXTENDED FROM JUST NORTH OF SPRINGFIELD
STREET...ACROSS THE COUNTRY CLUB OF WILBRAHAM...ACROSS FEDERAL LANE
TO JUST BEYOND TINKHAM ROAD. BASED ON TREE DAMAGE...THE STRONGEST
WINDS WERE ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100 MPH. THE WIDTH OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS AVERAGED APPROXIMATELY 250 YARDS...UP TO A MAXIMUM
WIDTH OF
600 YARDS ALONG SPRINGFIELD ROAD. BEYOND THIS CORE OF STRONGEST
WINDS...MODERATE TREE DAMAGE EXTENDED OUT TO AN AVERAGE WIDTH OF
JUST OVER A HALF A MILE.
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1308. scott39
Quoting GHOSTY1:
Scott39 im still living with parents so im under house rules still but im going to college next month in august so ill have time to stay up late without interruption, thanks for the reminder i'll make sure i get some information first thing tomorrow morning and txraysfan hope everything works out for you at work since you stayed up late. Good night to everyone. GHOSTY1 out.
good job listen to your parents
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1307. GHOSTY1
Thank you frankzapper good night!!
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
1306. GHOSTY1
Scott39 im still living with parents so im under house rules still but im going to college next month in august so ill have time to stay up late without interruption, thanks for the reminder i'll make sure i get some information first thing tomorrow morning and txraysfan hope everything works out for you at work since you stayed up late. Good night to everyone. GHOSTY1 out.
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
1305. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.W.
04L/TS/D/CX
MARK
23.11N/88.29W


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55972
Quoting GHOSTY1:
I to be goin' to bed shortly, want to stay up later but better be ready for tomorrow and tomorrow night because that could be the day things get real interesting.
I hope you're not in harm's way GHOSTY1! Manana
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1303. scott39
Quoting sarahjola:
no one on here thinks that the current movement of all the storms and clouds are a sign of shift in track and maybe even that don does not have enough power to stay on course? i mean look at wv or even unenhanced. i can't see how don could go against the movement of everything else in the gulf that are around the same area as don or off to the west of don. could someone with more knowledge explain? tia
the weaker it stays the more N it will go.
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Quoting lottotexas:
OOOH RAAAH


Semper Fi Marines! OIF-OEF Devil Doc here
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1301. GHOSTY1
maybe with the sun and heating tomorrow the convection will really explode and we get quite a show of force tomorrow by Don and if the shear stays weak and dry air low i expect some pretty rapid intensification
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
1300. scott39
Quoting GHOSTY1:
I to be goin' to bed shortly, want to stay up later but better be ready for tomorrow and tomorrow night because that could be the day things get real interesting.
your going to miss dmax
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I work a short shift tomorrow? lol later on-Will go in about 3:15am and be off about 8:30 am
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no one on here thinks that the current movement of all the storms and clouds are a sign of shift in track and maybe even that don does not have enough power to stay on course? i mean look at wv or even unenhanced. i can't see how don could go against the movement of everything else in the gulf that are around the same area as don or off to the west of don. could someone with more knowledge explain? tia
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1297. GHOSTY1
I to be goin' to bed shortly, want to stay up later but better be ready for tomorrow and tomorrow night because that could be the day things get real interesting.
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
1296. GHOSTY1
txraysfan, man you should really go to bed if you need to be up in 3 hours especially if you got a job you need that sleep, i dont expect any massive changes tonight so get some sleep for the real show tomorrow
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
1295. scott39
ragged!
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Caffinehog, I hear ya. But coming from someone whose moniker features the very substance many of us will be using to do watch Don 'til the bitter end, makes me laugh a lot. Thanks for that.
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1293. nigel20
Don is trying to flare up convection around the center.
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1292. GHOSTY1
Frankzapper, thanks for the funny article to get my mind off of just watching this system.
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
I'm still here, but should be asleep-have to be up in about 3 hours anyway
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1290. GHOSTY1
true, does anyone have a thought where this wave may go and if it will survive? and where did jim cantore decide he was going to wait for the storm, hurricane, or whatever it will be?
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
Link

off topic, but funny.
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1288. nigel20
The tropical wave at 30 W may be one to watch in the coming days.
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1287. GHOSTY1
Quoting Caffinehog:
Do not watch the hour-by-hour fluctuations of an immature tropical cyclone. It will drive you batty, and will give you no insight into the eventual fate of the storm. It's OK to go to bed tonight. We will know more about the storm tomorrow and still have plenty of time to prepare.


I agree with you that everyone can go to sleep if they feel so but i just want to watch the system and see it's transformation, but thanks for the concern i'm not gonna miss any sleep i really need
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
1286. JLPR2
Quoting hcubed:


I've got Firefox, use the old site, and still have problems when some people show YouTube clips.

The only real "fix" is to place the poster on your ignore list.


There's the reason you get problems with Youtube videos.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Do not watch the hour-by-hour fluctuations of an immature tropical cyclone. It will drive you batty, and will give you no insight into the eventual fate of the storm. It's OK to go to bed tonight. We will know more about the storm tomorrow and still have plenty of time to prepare.
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1284. GHOSTY1
I think Don may be shearing off the weaker convection to replace with higher amounts of convection at least thats what im predicting since the end of the wind shear and dry air. And for the question about the storms heading up to the north i believe their may be some minor shear coming from the ULL in Mexico doin' a little damage or Don is shedding it. Hope that helped.
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
1283. hcubed
Quoting Seawall:
Try Firefox, I use it and have no problem with the blog.


I've got Firefox, use the old site, and still have problems when some people show YouTube clips.

The only real "fix" is to place the poster on your ignore list.
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2011JUL28 041500 2.6 1004.0/ +0.0 / 37.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 NO LIMIT ON OFF -11.56 -22.22
CRVBND N/A 22.90 88.29 FCST
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0zNogaps follows the 0zGFS on the southern shift.

Link
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1280. nigel20
Quoting GHOSTY1:
Nigel, i think were like the last two people on tonight most everyone else went to bed.
That seems to be the case.
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why are the clouds that are breaking away from don going north? what is going on with the clouds and storms coming off of mexico? will or does this already have an effect on don? tia
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1278. GHOSTY1
Yeah, i expect in a few hours the convection will flare up and the intensification will start because the wind shear has dramatically dropped over the last hour and convection may be starting to fire again.
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
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Don is ragged! Needs a boost tonight or strengthening will be very, very slow
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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