Tropical Storm Don forms in the Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth tropical cyclone of the 2011 season, has formed in the Gulf of Mexico just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane Hunters began investigating the system earlier this afternoon and quickly found a closed surface circulation. As the mission continued to gather data from what was thought to be a tropical depression at the time, winds of around 39 mph were found, as well as a 1001 mb central pressure, bringing the system up to tropical storm strength.
Figure 1. Satellite loop of Tropical Storm Don. This loop will stay current.
The official forecast for Don agrees with what most of the models have been suggesting over the past 24 hours. Don will make its way toward the northwest over the next 48 hours before making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Galveston. The statistical models tend to suggest a more southerly track toward Brownsville, and the dynamical models are forecasting anything from Corpus Christi to Galveston. They all tend to agree landfall will occur late on the 29th (Friday night). Whether or not Don will reach hurricane status is still in question. The Hurricane Center's initial forecast is that Don will remain a tropical storm until landfall. Today some models were intensifying Don to a strong tropical storm, but none crossed the hurricane threshold. Now that we have data from aircraft reconnaissance, the models will be able to get a better handle on potential intensity. The runs that occur later tonight and early tomorrow will have much less uncertainty than those from today.
Figure 2. Model forecast tracks for Tropical Storm Don as of Wednesday afternoon.
I believe Jeff will be back tomorrow for an update.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Well, they have no reason to be out from under that damned bridge...LOL
It's okay to post from YouTube, but people have to remember to correctly set the width/height parameters; don't go larger than 500px, or the Wunderblog will "break" in some browsers.
Lotsa resources are coming to bear from the G-4 to 6 Hour fixes as well.
It will shake out in 30 or so.
Convection re-firing near the center.
just about topost that
That would make sense to me. But hey what do I know? The others are pretty sure of themselves. Hope they're right. Not much time to be wrong.
Storm W got eat in by a bear NO this kinding lol he got banned last year dont ask why
For now, but that is to be expected.
Could someone please tell me what the link is to the website that has all of the links needed for all things tropical? I believe that the person that had the website used to be on here quite a bit....my computer crashed and I never built my favorites back up to what they were....
Thanks in advance! :)
Where?
04L/TS/D/CX
MARK
22.33N/87.13W
Is it just me or is 1001 MB kind of low for a weak TS?
Oh and I am hearing people say that Don will become a CAT 2-3 Hurricane and NOAA is only forecasting a strong TS. I personally am putting my money on a CAT 2 but what do you all think? I wanna hear the experts here which always are on top of the storms.
Isn't that the truth...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC ANALYZED FROM
15N27W TO AN ELONGATED 1012 MB LOW NEAR 8N30W MOVING W AT ABOUT
10 KT. THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED IN A
REGION OF DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.
i will not be surprised to see forecast models move farther north jmo
75-90 mph.
Flood!
i rais you 75-90mph and give you 100-120mph
WARNING ATCN MIL 04L NAT 110727210627
2011072718 04L DON 001 01 295 10 SATL 020
T000 222N 0870W 030
T012 231N 0887W 040 R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T024 245N 0909W 045 R034 060 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD
T036 258N 0928W 050 R050 025 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 271N 0948W 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 290N 0995W 035 R034 035 NE QD 025 SE QD 000 SW QD 025 NW QD
T096 310N 1030W 025
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
NNNN
REF/A/NAVLANTMETOCCEN NORFOLK VA/270930Z JUL 11//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM DON (04L) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL STORM DON (04L) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ATLANTIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 22.1N 86.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 87.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 23.1N 88.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 24.5N 90.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 25.8N 92.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 27.1N 94.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 29.0N 99.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 31.0N 103.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 22.4N 87.4W OR APPROX 655NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI, TEXAS.
12FT SEAS: 40NM NE, 40NM SE, 0NM SW, 0NM NW.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVLANTMETOCCEN
270930Z) NEXT WARNINGS AT 280301Z, 280901Z, 281501Z
AND 282101Z.//
BT
#0001
NNNN
0411072106 118N 468W 20
0411072112 125N 480W 20
0411072118 130N 495W 20
0411072200 133N 511W 20
0411072206 136N 528W 20
0411072212 138N 546W 20
0411072218 141N 564W 20
0411072300 144N 582W 25
0411072306 148N 599W 25
0411072312 153N 618W 25
0411072318 157N 639W 25
0411072400 161N 662W 25
0411072406 168N 680W 25
0411072412 174N 701W 25
0411072418 178N 721W 25
0411072500 181N 738W 25
0411072506 184N 755W 25
0411072512 186N 770W 25
0411072518 189N 785W 25
0411072600 191N 798W 25
0411072606 197N 814W 25
0411072612 202N 824W 25
0411072618 208N 834W 25
0411072700 211N 845W 25
0411072706 214N 856W 25
0411072712 218N 863W 30
0411072718 222N 870W 30
It's okay, 99% of us aren't. Come blog more with us! :)
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And consider yourself(and me) REPORTED!
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And there's wind....blowing south!
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