Tropical Storm Don forms in the Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:29 PM GMT on July 27, 2011

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Tropical Storm Don, the fourth tropical cyclone of the 2011 season, has formed in the Gulf of Mexico just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane Hunters began investigating the system earlier this afternoon and quickly found a closed surface circulation. As the mission continued to gather data from what was thought to be a tropical depression at the time, winds of around 39 mph were found, as well as a 1001 mb central pressure, bringing the system up to tropical storm strength.


Figure 1. Satellite loop of Tropical Storm Don. This loop will stay current.

The official forecast for Don agrees with what most of the models have been suggesting over the past 24 hours. Don will make its way toward the northwest over the next 48 hours before making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Galveston. The statistical models tend to suggest a more southerly track toward Brownsville, and the dynamical models are forecasting anything from Corpus Christi to Galveston. They all tend to agree landfall will occur late on the 29th (Friday night). Whether or not Don will reach hurricane status is still in question. The Hurricane Center's initial forecast is that Don will remain a tropical storm until landfall. Today some models were intensifying Don to a strong tropical storm, but none crossed the hurricane threshold. Now that we have data from aircraft reconnaissance, the models will be able to get a better handle on potential intensity. The runs that occur later tonight and early tomorrow will have much less uncertainty than those from today.


Figure 2. Model forecast tracks for Tropical Storm Don as of Wednesday afternoon.

I believe Jeff will be back tomorrow for an update.

Angela

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Not surprised that Don formed while Jeff was on vacation...
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Quoting Floodman:


That's kind of what I'm seeing...

Hey Flood! Long time no see. Hotter than the hinges of Hades here lately.
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Thank You so much Angela,

This will be one to chase but I'm on call this weekend and can't go :o(
Would love to be there with OZ thats for sure :o(


Taco :o)
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23. DDR
Post #13
sure does looks like what we had in Trinidad today,some minor flooding to add.
4.2 inches in the last 24 hours here.
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Dear Texas,

You have been dieing/crying/complaining for rain and here it comes, now i dont want to here complaints about flash flooding and too much rain.

Love, Florida
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Thanks Angela.

According to Lake Charles this won't affect us at all.

Sigh. They could be perfectly right. The NHC may have the track down pat. But I've never seen that cone not move. We'll see I guess.

THIS RIDGE...BY THE WAY...IS EXPECTED TO HELP STEER TS DON TOWARD THE
LOWER TX COAST...AND BLOCK ANY FURTHER GAINS IN LATITUDE THAT WOULD
BRING GREATER IMPACTS TO OUR REGION. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK...EFFECTS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST REGION WILL BE
MINIMAL...AND AT THIS TIME LIMITED GENERALLY TO INCREASING WINDS
AND SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
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Thanks for the update Angela :)
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I could slap whoever turned off rapid scan on the NASA site...
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I believe Jeff will be back tomorrow for an update.
Angela


Well that does it. Not a Hurricane!
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Very good job Angela, Jeff did a good job hireing you
Thanks
blsealevel
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Thanks Angela
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Rain over rain, over what?... more rain *sigh*



Wish I could send some of these clouds to Texas. :\
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Thanks.........You were great while covering Dr.M during another "Formation Vacation"............ :)
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Thanks for the quick update!

Can someone please share the link to the website with all the latest model runs, I have misplaced my bookmarks yet again :)
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Quoting PNavejar57:
80-85 mph sustained winds with a landfall coming late fri/early sat near or just north of Port Aransas, TX. IMO


That's kind of what I'm seeing...
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18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest90
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)


Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)







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Thanks, Angela. I really enjoy and learn a lot from your postings. Keep up the good work.
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80-85 mph sustained winds with a landfall coming late fri/early sat near or just north of Port Aransas, TX. IMO
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Quoting Patrap:


Don will be loving it.
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Thank you Angela :-)

/poof!
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Thanks for the update!
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Thanks for the update Angela. So nice to see you keeping us up to date throughout the day.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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