Tropical Storm Don forms in the Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:29 PM GMT on July 27, 2011

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Tropical Storm Don, the fourth tropical cyclone of the 2011 season, has formed in the Gulf of Mexico just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane Hunters began investigating the system earlier this afternoon and quickly found a closed surface circulation. As the mission continued to gather data from what was thought to be a tropical depression at the time, winds of around 39 mph were found, as well as a 1001 mb central pressure, bringing the system up to tropical storm strength.


Figure 1. Satellite loop of Tropical Storm Don. This loop will stay current.

The official forecast for Don agrees with what most of the models have been suggesting over the past 24 hours. Don will make its way toward the northwest over the next 48 hours before making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Galveston. The statistical models tend to suggest a more southerly track toward Brownsville, and the dynamical models are forecasting anything from Corpus Christi to Galveston. They all tend to agree landfall will occur late on the 29th (Friday night). Whether or not Don will reach hurricane status is still in question. The Hurricane Center's initial forecast is that Don will remain a tropical storm until landfall. Today some models were intensifying Don to a strong tropical storm, but none crossed the hurricane threshold. Now that we have data from aircraft reconnaissance, the models will be able to get a better handle on potential intensity. The runs that occur later tonight and early tomorrow will have much less uncertainty than those from today.


Figure 2. Model forecast tracks for Tropical Storm Don as of Wednesday afternoon.

I believe Jeff will be back tomorrow for an update.

Angela

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Quoting JoltyJacob:



?????, what is wrong with you, why would you say something like that?


Because he may very well be right...what, you skeered?
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175. DFWjc
Quoting JoltyJacob:



?????, what is wrong with you, why would you say something like that?


it looks like it's going to go over warmer waters the more N/NW it travels...
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174. jpsb
Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't put much faith into them anyway.That's why I dissed them the other day.
Maybe someone from here should give them a heads up and let them know a storm formed in the Gulf. Bet they would appreciate knowing that.
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1010
Quoting Floodman:


You must be from Port Aurthur...


Worse. Middle-of-nowhere Mauriceville.

Sort of place that stocks up on canned goods & keeps a Looters-Beware-I'm-A-Bit-Crazy Rocking chair on the front porch.
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Quoting Ameister12:

I wonder if TWC has a new storm alert song for this year.


They should. What I want to know is if they will play it for a landfalling TC, or if it has to be a major hurricane.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
I wonder if a yellow circle will go up at 8PM around the windwards


I thought they might this morning, but the ULL to the north is wreaking havoc with it.

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Quoting eyesontheweather:
Remakably busy, How about you?


You too? Call me later, huh? I want to talk about a few things...
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again, can someone PLEASE share the link to the website with all the latest model runs, I've lost it and I need it :) Thanks in advance!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Ike, Gustav's theme.

I wonder if TWC has a new storm alert song for this year.
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Quoting Seawall:
KPLC (Lake Charles) met giving the area 70% chance of precip due to Don. He is suggesting to watch the system carefully.


Your NWS office wrote it off like you had no danger at all. I read their discussion a little while ago. It seemed a little too ho-hum considering the amount of uncertainty we still have with Don.
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Week from today everyone in Texas gonna be complaining that they gotta mow haha
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Quoting Floodman:


Hey, Comanch! Yeah, a little bird told me people's names were being posted along with phone numbers and addresses...

No worries though, that stuff tends to work itself out.

How have you been, aside from lurking, you skulker you?


FLOOD!!!!!! Hey you...how goes it?
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higher than 50%
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Floodman.Has all been forgiven and forgotten?


What all were you referring too? Apparently it HAS been forgotten and forgiven...I wasn't even aware I had gotten my righteous indignation on recently ; )

How are you, Washingtonian?
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KPLC (Lake Charles) met giving the area 70% chance of precip on Friday due to Don. He is suggesting to watch the system carefully.
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Quoting Floodman:


Howdy, brother...how have you been?
Remakably busy, How about you?
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Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
what is going on with 60 west!!

I'll give you this:
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Well, I'm ready for whatever Don brings if he heads this way. We could definitely use the rain. Hoping others are prepared as well.
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Quoting twincomanche:
Been mostly lurking Flood, but it doesn't seem any worse than normal. A bit of extra stress due to little activity but nothing too out of bounds.


Hey, Comanch! Yeah, a little bird told me people's names were being posted along with phone numbers and addresses...

No worries though, that stuff tends to work itself out.

How have you been, aside from lurking, you skulker you?
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Quoting JoltyJacob:


WOW, Jason, wow, wow, what's that by 30 degrees west, Jason? WOW, WOW, ^_^.

He's very obsessed in observing T-waves (tropical waves)
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I wonder if a yellow circle will go up at 8PM around the windwards
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


The image I posted is the Wind Shear tendency map. It shows wind shear in Don's map has decreased 5-10 knots in the past three hours.
thanks and thats not a good sign at all. the next days will be interesting to see what it will do.
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guys this may not be a TS when it gets in too TX this may be a cat 2 or low end cat 3 hurricane
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114066
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Shear is low.And when shear is low....well I don't need to explain the rest of the story.


Nope no explanation required I understand thank you. I was not sure what map it was that I was looking at. We've still not gotten any word to start rigging down for evacuation. Guess they gonna wait and see what is going on by morning.
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Ike, Gustav's theme.
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Just what the Dr ordered as long as Don stays as a TS. Texas needs the rain and hopefully a big swath of moisture will hit the majority of Eastern Texas.
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 JUL 2011 Time : 211500 UTC
Lat : 22:12:53 N Lon : 87:01:47 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1004.4mb/ 37.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 2.7 3.8

Center Temp : -45.4C Cloud Region Temp : -61.7C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.88 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1013mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 29.3 degrees
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114066
hey flood!!!
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I can see a spin here:
Cancun Radar Image
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Quoting cycleranger:


We're a skin-changing people.

Already my blood is warming as I transform from my cold-blooded reptilian shape. By tomorrow afternoon gills on the sides of my neck will appear!


You must be from Port Aurthur...
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Floodman.Has all been forgiven and forgotten?
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Quoting Floodman:


Florida,
Have you seen the ground in south central Texas? There'll be no complaints, I promise (at least moe you should listen to). The fuirst 6 inches or so will simply soak in; you can't walk across the yard without raising a small dust storm.

Thanks for your concern, by the way

Love,
Texas
10 inches of rain may close the 4 and 5 inch wide cracks in the ground and put a little water in the dried up rivers and creeks. Lakes are 45 to 50 feet below full so it will take 2 or 3 tropical systems to even think about a flood. Now if someone gets poured on with the ground being so hard and dry then could be major runoff. This system is pretty small so not many unfortunately will get rain except in the path of this system.
Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
140. DFWjc
Quoting Patrap:


www.maineharbors.com


on top of things as usual (tips hat) thank you!
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The Dry Air is like someone choking a 4 Barrel Holley on a "71" Hemi Challenger
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oh no...Stormtop's blog says low is moving to slow to the east.....says Don will go into Surfside Beach,Tx as a low cat 2....we will take the rain....Love, Texas
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Quoting stormpetrol:
I think Don is about to go through a RI phase within the next 12 hours.


What brings you to that thought process?
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136. DFWjc
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Heh. They are the worst weather network ever. Also, Don looks way better then in the morning.


other than here, what good to watch?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


It's probably not possible, since the pressure corresponds with the winds.

It is possible, but extremely rare. Hurricane Danny from 2003 is the only one I know of that did it, and that was because of extremely high ambient pressures.
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<
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Quoting DFWjc:
hey patrap, can you post a sea temperature current map?


www.maineharbors.com
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Quoting eyesontheweather:
Afternoon Flood


Howdy, brother...how have you been?
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here ya go Texas folk:

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Quoting Seawall:


I certainly wouldn't expect them to do anything else...

Heh. They are the worst weather network ever. Also, Don looks way better then in the morning.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5521
The dry air in the central gulf is the only thing I see holding this back. We need the rain but we'd just as soon not have to rebuild Corpus Christi.
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Quoting HimacaneBrees:



explain why it's not good please. I do not know what it is I am looking at. Just a little help please.
Shear is low.And when shear is low....well I don't need to explain the rest of the story.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.