Tropical Storm Don forms in the Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:29 PM GMT on July 27, 2011

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Tropical Storm Don, the fourth tropical cyclone of the 2011 season, has formed in the Gulf of Mexico just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane Hunters began investigating the system earlier this afternoon and quickly found a closed surface circulation. As the mission continued to gather data from what was thought to be a tropical depression at the time, winds of around 39 mph were found, as well as a 1001 mb central pressure, bringing the system up to tropical storm strength.


Figure 1. Satellite loop of Tropical Storm Don. This loop will stay current.

The official forecast for Don agrees with what most of the models have been suggesting over the past 24 hours. Don will make its way toward the northwest over the next 48 hours before making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Galveston. The statistical models tend to suggest a more southerly track toward Brownsville, and the dynamical models are forecasting anything from Corpus Christi to Galveston. They all tend to agree landfall will occur late on the 29th (Friday night). Whether or not Don will reach hurricane status is still in question. The Hurricane Center's initial forecast is that Don will remain a tropical storm until landfall. Today some models were intensifying Don to a strong tropical storm, but none crossed the hurricane threshold. Now that we have data from aircraft reconnaissance, the models will be able to get a better handle on potential intensity. The runs that occur later tonight and early tomorrow will have much less uncertainty than those from today.


Figure 2. Model forecast tracks for Tropical Storm Don as of Wednesday afternoon.

I believe Jeff will be back tomorrow for an update.

Angela

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if the coc is where they say it is, then i would have to question the wnw movement. i could be and probably am wrong, but if what i am looking at is the coc then i see a more nw movement than a wnw. does anyone else see this?
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Hey everyone.Good to see some of the originals still around. Currently, dry air appears to be the only potential inhibiting factor. Hurricane seems very possible, and maybe even likely. Keep in mind that the NHC rarely goes out on a limb with its forecast. They will wait for model support before increasing intensity forecast. The track forecast is likely pretty close. Sure would be great for the state if this thing could expand in size. That may put a dent in this miserable heat and drought.
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Quoting gulfbreeze:
Coming from the guy who said RIP over and over!!


Taz 'fessed up and ordered his crow, so he still gets to play.
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Quoting Floodman:


TIGS!!! Whats for dinner, honey?


wow lol...164 and 202 i talk to you and you see somethin i put for someone else roflmbo... but it was collards, roasted baby taters n popcorn chicken lol
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221. jpsb
Quoting Pensa2woodtx:
oh no...Stormtop's blog says low is moving to slow to the east.....says Don will go into Surfside Beach,Tx as a low cat 2....we will take the rain....Love, Texas
Worst Case for me (San Leon, Tx) is a big storm hitting Freeport, good thing Don is small.
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Quoting gulfbreeze:
Coming from the guy who said RIP over and over!!



i was helping 90L too get better now am going too send 90L the bill
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114758
Quoting DFWjc:
Is that a weak front guarding the gulf coast?


Stalled one but yes
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Quoting Tazmanian:
guys this may not be a TS when it gets in too TX this may be a cat 2 or low end cat 3 hurricane
Coming from the guy who said RIP over and over!!
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Quoting lucreto:
Everyone south of Galveston is in the clear you can now ignore this storm even those north of Galveston should not worry this will be a depression at worst according to my calculations.


REALLY? and you got your degree from WHERE? you shouldn't post things like that on here...people read this for their preparedness actions...
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We'd like the rain. Don't care about the mowing. We'd -love- a tropical storm, but if it has to be a hurricane, low end cat 1 only plskthx.
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DON geting biger
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114758
Quoting lucreto:
Looks like a landfall around High Island as a wave/ depression its looking worse than ever and I am amazed the NHC classified it.

Worse then ever? Did you look at the data from recon? For someone who said there comments are pure gold, I would expect an analysis on why you think this, since ya know you have a masters degree from CU and all that good stuff.!
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Quoting charlottefl:


MODELS PAGE

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20we ather/hurricane%20model%20plots


Two of em :)


thanks a bunch :)

that last image posted by JRRP looks ominous... the wind field seems to have expanded significantly during the last few hours.. looking at the weather channel and their funny map, i'm thinking this could jump substantially in strength during the next 1 or 2 advisories...
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211. DFWjc
Is that a weak front guarding the gulf coast?
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Quoting Vincent4989:
Start of CV season- if u don't believe me Don's origins are from a T- wave from Africa


That doesn't mean anything. Most Atlantic named storms and even East Pacific storms come from tropical waves that leave CV. They're CV storms if they form near CV.
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


ha ha...im from a place like that originally... sat in a chair on the front porch to shoot chicken hawks on the fly as they passed over to protect the coops and piglets...


TIGS!!! Whats for dinner, honey?
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.."Oh look Mom,,they have a busted forecast Dunkin Booth" !!!!!
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TS Don Evening Update With Video
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I live in Corpus and Yes I am scared of a hurricane.
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As long as we don't end up with something like this later in the year (or this week), I think we're all satisfied!

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Quoting Floodman:


Hey Shen! Yeah, been a bit busy of late. I know what you're saying about the heat; it's been hotter'n' Ned's belt buckle here since about the end of April. How you been, btw? I hear there's been some serious ugliness in here the last couple of weeks or so...
Yea you are fortunate if you missed it. With your sense of righteousness and justice you probably couldn't have stayed out of the fray. Some of it is the same old same ol' start of the season stuff and some is someone who needs somewhere else to stay than where computers and interaction with the larger society are allowed. Maybe some chemical adjustments as well. As for me I'm hanging in there. By a thread but still hanging.
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Quoting Floodman:


Howdy!


ok...i see how it is...I "FLOOD" you at 164 and you don't even see me...its ok...sniff sniff...i sniff understand...sniff
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Start of CV season- if u don't believe me Don's origins are from a T- wave from Africa
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Quoting lucreto:
Looks like a landfall around High Island as a wave/ depression its looking worse than ever and I am amazed the NHC classified it.


Are we lookin' at the same basin here? I think we oughtta lock you up in a room with alphabob and charge for tickets.
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10 inches of rain may close the 4 and 5 inch wide cracks in the ground and put a little water in the dried up rivers and creeks. Lakes are 45 to 50 feet below full so it will take 2 or 3 tropical systems to even think about a flood. Now if someone gets poured on with the ground being so hard and dry then could be major runoff. This system is pretty small so not many unfortunately will get rain except in the path of this system

Its so dry out here near Del Rio that I don't have to watch where I hit my golf balls. The dust trails lead me right to them. This TS (no Hurricane please) is just what we need. A broad swath from Corpus to Abilene with rain out several hundred miles on each side would be welcome to all of us in the Lone Star State!

I do fear that 48 hours out over the Gulf will allow this system to intensify especially since the wind shear will apparently be very low. We don't need a hurricane, just the rain please.
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198. JRRP
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Quoting Floodman:


You too? Call me later, huh? I want to talk about a few things...
You Got mail
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Quoting aussiecold:
hey flood!!!


Howdy!
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CATL Visible loop- look at 57 west
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Quoting JoltyJacob:



?????, what is wrong with you, why would you say something like that?
....Not to far off
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Quoting cycleranger:


Worse. Middle-of-nowhere Mauriceville.

Sort of place that stocks up on canned goods & keeps a Looters-Beware-I'm-A-Bit-Crazy Rocking chair on the front porch.


ha ha...im from a place like that originally... sat in a chair on the front porch to shoot chicken hawks on the fly as they passed over to protect the coops and piglets...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


They should. What I want to know is if they will play it for a landfalling TC, or if it has to be a major hurricane.

Probably both.
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DON is really starting too look better
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114758
Quoting Seawall:


Somebody will have to wake them up and let them know their is a storm out there, first... :)


They did a short update about it right before Storm Stories came on, so they know. I guess they think Storm Stories is more important that a potential USA landfall, so...Oh well.
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Quoting cycleranger:


Worse. Middle-of-nowhere Mauriceville.

Sort of place that stocks up on canned goods & keeps a Looters-Beware-I'm-A-Bit-Crazy Rocking chair on the front porch.


OMG...MAURICEVILLE?!?! I thought everyone left there years ago...you poor, underpriveleged dude! LOL

How are things in the secondary coon-ass capitol of the world?
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Quoting skycycle:
again, can someone PLEASE share the link to the website with all the latest model runs, I've lost it and I need it :) Thanks in advance!


MODELS PAGE

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20we ather/hurricane%20model%20plots


Two of em :)
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Don't...Say...Anything.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


They should. What I want to know is if they will play it for a landfalling TC, or if it has to be a major hurricane.


Somebody will have to wake them up and let them know their is a storm out there, first... :)
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Quoting cycleranger:


Worse. Middle-of-nowhere Mauriceville.

Sort of place that stocks up on canned goods & keeps a Looters-Beware-I'm-A-Bit-Crazy Rocking chair on the front porch.


HaHa....that is where I am.
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18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Don
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




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Quoting mcluvincane:
Excuse me, but didn't the NHC give 90L a 0% chance yesterday for TC formation in 48hrs? Now we have a TS. I'm not putting to much faith into there intensity forecast ATM.
This does seem to be the year for the NHC models/forecasters to be slow on the draw, but once they have a proper LLC and upper air data to initialize they've done fine. ,
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As Angela points out, we'll have better results in the next few model runs.
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For the next few hours the blog speculation has the floor, but after we get a couple of good model runs we'll know more. By tomorrow morning we'll know what we're dealing with. Until then, it's best to be as prepared as you should be on June 1.
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unfortunately, Taz could be correct.
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I think I'm seeing a more NNW movement with Don for now, anyone else notice this? I wouldn't rule out a La. landfall completely
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7690
Quoting JoltyJacob:



?????, what is wrong with you, why would you say something like that?


Because he may very well be right...what, you skeered?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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