Tropical Storm Don forms in the Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:29 PM GMT on July 27, 2011

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Tropical Storm Don, the fourth tropical cyclone of the 2011 season, has formed in the Gulf of Mexico just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane Hunters began investigating the system earlier this afternoon and quickly found a closed surface circulation. As the mission continued to gather data from what was thought to be a tropical depression at the time, winds of around 39 mph were found, as well as a 1001 mb central pressure, bringing the system up to tropical storm strength.


Figure 1. Satellite loop of Tropical Storm Don. This loop will stay current.

The official forecast for Don agrees with what most of the models have been suggesting over the past 24 hours. Don will make its way toward the northwest over the next 48 hours before making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Galveston. The statistical models tend to suggest a more southerly track toward Brownsville, and the dynamical models are forecasting anything from Corpus Christi to Galveston. They all tend to agree landfall will occur late on the 29th (Friday night). Whether or not Don will reach hurricane status is still in question. The Hurricane Center's initial forecast is that Don will remain a tropical storm until landfall. Today some models were intensifying Don to a strong tropical storm, but none crossed the hurricane threshold. Now that we have data from aircraft reconnaissance, the models will be able to get a better handle on potential intensity. The runs that occur later tonight and early tomorrow will have much less uncertainty than those from today.


Figure 2. Model forecast tracks for Tropical Storm Don as of Wednesday afternoon.

I believe Jeff will be back tomorrow for an update.

Angela

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Looks like the dry air in Dons path may keep his strengthening to a minimum

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Over the last few frames, seems almost a NW movement of the coc. Though these storms wobble I pray it gets back on its wnw movement. Do not want a storm here.

I am wondering if It feels the low pressure from the front to its north
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274. JLPR2
Quoting sarahjola:
PRweathercenter- dude with all due respect please stop posting from youtube. it screws up the whole blog. thanks


Always heard IE was the victim when posting Youtube videos, so I decided to open IE to see how the blog messes up, but it looks normal there too.

I guess I'm immune to that glitch. XD
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Quoting DFWjc:


so what a 5-10 mph gain?


I stated this morning that a moderate tropical storm, perhaps around 50mph may be the max, though I could see 60mph happening, which is still considered moderate, especially since the pressure is already 1001mb, which is very respectable. The NHC intensity discussion was entirely based on model consensus, so basically we're waiting to see whether the computers have it right. As we learned with Bret, these small systems can also pull surprises in seemingly unfavorable conditions, so it should be monitored in case it tries to go stronger than that.
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Quoting Levi32:
Outflow with Don will probably be restricted to the south and west, and suffocated to the north and east due to a suppressing ENE flow south of the big U.S. ridge. This means that the system won't be able to "breathe" all that well, but it will be sufficient for some strengthening.
I love it when you do serious "weatherspeak"LOL
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Winds 305 mph ??? lol
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Quoting smmcdavid:


*Clears throat... and sniffs all at the same time.

Apparently you are a popular dude today... ;-)


I am so sorry...to you AND to Tigs. Trying to work AND catch up with old friends; I'm not doing very well on either

How have you been, darlin'?
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Can someone plz post the 18Z-GFS?
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Your NWS office wrote it off like you had no danger at all. I read their discussion a little while ago. It seemed a little too ho-hum considering the amount of uncertainty we still have with Don.


Basically our locals on TV did too.
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Outflow with Don will probably be restricted to the south and west, and suffocated to the north and east due to a suppressing ENE flow south of the big U.S. ridge. This means that the system won't be able to "breathe" all that well, but it will be sufficient for some strengthening.
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PRweathercenter- dude with all due respect please stop posting from youtube. it screws up the whole blog. thanks
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The MSLP is interesting
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Quoting Levi32:
Checking in for break. I see we got Don on the first advisory due to supporting recon data. Convection is weakening a little bit in the last couple hours, but heat is going forth from the system to the northwest, indicated by cirrus clouds streaming in that direction. This means that Don can try to buck up against the southern U.S. high and attempt to survive despite the easterly upper winds to the south of that high. As the NHC forecast indicates, additional strengthening is likely to occur, though I would expect this intensification to be limited.




i guss you have not seen the new wind shear map wind shear is now vary low all the way too TX
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115336
ok...out for a bit...taking little man school shopping... snicker snicker...getting the digs in a few weeks early but would rather do it before the big rush too...later taters
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Quoting aquak9:
PATRAP-

look at post 225. Ok, high slowly building in from my area, very slowly. Lotta moisture in the upper gulf. The high to the east of me, is gently trying to push that moisture west. TOWARDS where Don is gonna be in about 24 hours.

Any chance Don could grab a bunch of that moisture and bring it on into Texas? Or is he moving too slow? I mean, there's not that much shear to affect all that upper gulf moisture.


That's a good question, maybe the loop will show the motion..

Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop
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Quoting TexasHurricane:




Pretty sure we're right next to each other. Not a large area to survey. Pretty sure all I need to do is climb on top of a tree & "Hazzah!" a few times.

Quoting tiggeriffic:




Managed to avoid those properties myself. Though I did go to a farm once. Think they rang the Chuck Wagon Triangle bell when it was dinner time.
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260. DFWjc
Quoting Levi32:
Checking in for break. I see we got Don on the first advisory due to supporting recon data. Convection is weakening a little bit in the last couple hours, but heat is going forth from the system to the northwest, indicated by cirrus clouds streaming in that direction. This means that Don can try to buck up against the southern U.S. high and attempt to survive despite the easterly upper winds to the south of that high. As the NHC forecast indicates, additional strengthening is likely to occur, though I would expect this intensification to be limited.


so what a 5-10 mph gain?
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Quoting duajones78413:
I live in Corpus and Yes I am scared of a hurricane.


As well you should be. Bear in mind Floodman's rules of hurricanes: a CAT2 requires at least three counties distance from landfall; a CAT 3 at least a state away and a CAT 4, well, the Pacific Northwest is nice this time of year...
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Quoting Floodman:


Yeah, my little bird told me they figured I would have bustin' a few heads...odd, since everyone knows what a peace loving old hippie I am


peace loving....yeah...peace loving when everyone plays nice that is...have seen you go postal from a mail truck when the trolls are out from under the bridge lol
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Checking in for break. I see we got Don on the first advisory due to supporting recon data. Convection is weakening a little bit in the last couple hours, but heat is going forth from the system to the northwest, indicated by cirrus clouds streaming in that direction. This means that Don can try to buck up against the southern U.S. high and attempt to survive despite the easterly upper winds to the south of that high. As the NHC forecast indicates, additional strengthening is likely to occur, though I would expect this intensification to be limited.
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Quoting reedzone:
Worst system classified by NHC.. I will never forget this...

Tropical Depression 2 ... What a joke



Are you begging to post SOMETHING/anything Reed?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Evening, see we have Don.

An impressive 4-0-0 as of July 27th, 2010 didn't see Danielle until late August.


Hmm -- don't know if impressive is a good word or not. Teddy -- do you remember the conversation a year or so ago when we said we didn't want to be where you are? Since you have such a habit of being where the nasty hurricanes are? So, where are you so we can stay away!

Flood -- you sure seem to be popular today, must be those sunglasses. Nice to see you.
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Caribbean Update July 27th 2011
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Quoting sarahjola:
if the coc is where they say it is, then i would have to question the wnw movement. i could be and probably am wrong, but if what i am looking at is the coc then i see a more nw movement than a wnw. does anyone else see this?


According to the NHC it was moving at 295 degrees which is just a touch steeper than WNW. I'd plot it out for about 6 hours you'll get a true motion then.
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Yea you are fortunate if you missed it. With your sense of righteousness and justice you probably couldn't have stayed out of the fray. Some of it is the same old same ol' start of the season stuff and some is someone who needs somewhere else to stay than where computers and interaction with the larger society are allowed. Maybe some chemical adjustments as well. As for me I'm hanging in there. By a thread but still hanging.


Yeah, my little bird told me they figured I would have bustin' a few heads...odd, since everyone knows what a peace loving old hippie I am
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Quoting Floodman:


Oh, Tig, you now I love you honey...


roflmbo...love ya too flood...you know im messing with ya... :P
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Quoting skycycle:


last year


ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115336
PATRAP-

look at post 225. Ok, high slowly building in from my area, very slowly. Lotta moisture in the upper gulf. The high to the east of me, is gently trying to push that moisture west. TOWARDS where Don is gonna be in about 24 hours.

Any chance Don could grab a bunch of that moisture and bring it on into Texas? Or is he moving too slow? I mean, there's not that much shear to affect all that upper gulf moisture.
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Quoting reedzone:


2010


ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115336
Quoting cycleranger:


Worse. Middle-of-nowhere Mauriceville.

Sort of place that stocks up on canned goods & keeps a Looters-Beware-I'm-A-Bit-Crazy Rocking chair on the front porch.



Hey...Mauriceville is not the middle of nowhere...it's in the middle of everything...and it doesn't flood here!
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not to be a broken record...but anytime you get a tropical system in the GOM with this kinda heat content...the last thing you want is favorable upper levels....and that's what we have.

I am NOT going out on a limb and declaring this to make cat 3 status....especially IF the forward speed is slow enough. It's all about how long Don stays over water....long enough, and a major cane aheadin our way....

late July, but the heat is more like mid August...and this storm ain't worried about the date....

imho
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Quoting Tazmanian:



what year wss TD 2 bron in


last year
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Quoting Tazmanian:



what year wss TD 2 bron in


2010
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Listen up people. This is getting to the real time of the year when peoples lives might be at stake. Let's try to be neither fear mongers or say irresponsible things No one knows what this thing will be when it makes landfall nor do we know with any precision where it is going so just cool the silly predictions.
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


ok...i see how it is...I "FLOOD" you at 164 and you don't even see me...its ok...sniff sniff...i sniff understand...sniff


Oh, Tig, you now I love you honey...
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so oh will see the E storm 1st us or the E PAC
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115336
I cant tell if I see a circulation or if those outflow boundaries are playing games with my eyes
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Quoting reedzone:
Worst system classified by NHC.. I will never forget this...

Tropical Depression 2 ... What a joke




what year wss TD 2 bron in
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115336
Quoting Seawall:
KPLC (Lake Charles) met giving the area 70% chance of precip on Friday due to Don. He is suggesting to watch the system carefully.


In Beaumont they, 2 mets, just said it would go well south. We may get some rain. Lol. that's more than the NWS gave us. :)
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Evening, see we have Don.

An impressive 4-0-0 as of July 27th, 2010 didn't see Danielle until late August.
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Quoting reedzone:
Worst system classified by NHC.. I will never forget this...




????
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115336
Quoting weatherguy03:
TS Don Evening Update With Video
Thanks for the update! I watch them everyday...very informative.
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Quoting Floodman:


OMG...MAURICEVILLE?!?! I thought everyone left there years ago...you poor, underpriveleged dude! LOL

How are things in the secondary coon-ass capitol of the world?


Funny thing happened on the way to the...Recession.

If you're going to be stuck somewhere quite there could be less trees.

A mass extinction you say? I believe that one weekend where They hooked up the Sewage pipe to the Water pipe by accident was enough to kill off most of the sentient beings here. ;)
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Worst system classified by NHC.. I will never forget this...

Tropical Depression 2 ... What a joke

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231. DFWjc
Quoting smmcdavid:


*Clears throat... and sniffs all at the same time.

Apparently you are a popular dude today... ;-)


He's the guy who got me to learn more about the tropics...
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Looks like a late, late, late night shift is in store for tonight, lol.

Don continues to fire multiple updrafts despite dry air intrusion primarily on the northern and northeastern semicircles.



Next Recon mission leaves at 6a.m (EDT) and arrives in the system after 7:30a.m (EDT).
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207. lucreto

wham you are about to be empty space
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Quoting smmcdavid:


Hey Flood... long time, no see.


*Clears throat... and sniffs all at the same time.

Apparently you are a popular dude today... ;-)
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if the coc is where they say it is, then i would have to question the wnw movement. i could be and probably am wrong, but if what i am looking at is the coc then i see a more nw movement than a wnw. does anyone else see this?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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