Tropical Storm Don forms in the Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:29 PM GMT on July 27, 2011

Share this Blog
8
+

Tropical Storm Don, the fourth tropical cyclone of the 2011 season, has formed in the Gulf of Mexico just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane Hunters began investigating the system earlier this afternoon and quickly found a closed surface circulation. As the mission continued to gather data from what was thought to be a tropical depression at the time, winds of around 39 mph were found, as well as a 1001 mb central pressure, bringing the system up to tropical storm strength.


Figure 1. Satellite loop of Tropical Storm Don. This loop will stay current.

The official forecast for Don agrees with what most of the models have been suggesting over the past 24 hours. Don will make its way toward the northwest over the next 48 hours before making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Galveston. The statistical models tend to suggest a more southerly track toward Brownsville, and the dynamical models are forecasting anything from Corpus Christi to Galveston. They all tend to agree landfall will occur late on the 29th (Friday night). Whether or not Don will reach hurricane status is still in question. The Hurricane Center's initial forecast is that Don will remain a tropical storm until landfall. Today some models were intensifying Don to a strong tropical storm, but none crossed the hurricane threshold. Now that we have data from aircraft reconnaissance, the models will be able to get a better handle on potential intensity. The runs that occur later tonight and early tomorrow will have much less uncertainty than those from today.


Figure 2. Model forecast tracks for Tropical Storm Don as of Wednesday afternoon.

I believe Jeff will be back tomorrow for an update.

Angela

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 326 - 276

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35Blog Index

Well just as I thought. We had TS Don at 5 PM. I said earlier that I expected that it was at least a TD at 11 AM. Was just waiting on the HH to confirm it.

Is it just me or is 1001 MB kind of low for a weak TS?

Oh and I am hearing people say that Don will become a CAT 2-3 Hurricane and NOAA is only forecasting a strong TS. I personally am putting my money on a CAT 2 but what do you all think? I wanna hear the experts here which always are on top of the storms.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



Storm W got eat in by a bear NO this kinding lol he got banned last year dont ask why
...sorry to hear that
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
T.C.F.W.
04L/TS/D/CX
MARK
22.33N/87.13W


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:
91L COME soon imo

Where?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good evening everyone!

Could someone please tell me what the link is to the website that has all of the links needed for all things tropical? I believe that the person that had the website used to be on here quite a bit....my computer crashed and I never built my favorites back up to what they were....

Thanks in advance! :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gulf Of Mexico - Water Vapor Loop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting lottotexas:
is that showing a weakening of the storms associated with Don ????


For now, but that is to be expected.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Pensa2woodtx:
Going with landfall in Surfside beach,Tx.....as a cat 1.......where is Lefty...and Storm W



Storm W got eat in by a bear NO this kinding lol he got banned last year dont ask why
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115347
Quoting xcool:
is that showing a weakening of the storms associated with Don ????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
Rob Robbins, who is usually spot on isn't making any commitments yet on track. He says it is to early.


That would make sense to me. But hey what do I know? The others are pretty sure of themselves. Hope they're right. Not much time to be wrong.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
315. xcool
91L COME soon imo
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Going with landfall in Surfside beach,Tx.....as a cat 1.......where is Lefty...and Storm W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cycleranger:


Convection re-firing near the center.


just about topost that
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
312. wpb
Quoting CybrTeddy:
And the doc was on vacation when Don formed too.. and the models didn't develop Don. They completely failed to develop 3 named storms in a row, and all of them at one point dropped Arlene just over 48 hours before it developed. Its almost like the NAM is doing the best this year.. or this is just one of those years that storms develop regardless of what a computer says.
both gfdl and hmrf doing poorly too
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think that Don is gonna discipate or move more westward and make landfall in NE of Mexico, I dont think is gonna hit Texas at all. JMO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11397
And the doc was on vacation when Don formed too.. and the models didn't develop Don. They completely failed to develop 3 named storms in a row, and all of them at one point dropped Arlene just over 48 hours before it developed. Its almost like the NAM is doing the best this year.. or this is just one of those years that storms develop regardless of what a computer says.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Convection re-firing near the center.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
307. xcool
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
on the 10 oclock update the nhc should move the cone farther north with the models and up the winds a bit that my two cents
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Way to early to claim a landfall,as strength,shear,ridging, all will play a role before the Solution is rendered.


Lotsa resources are coming to bear from the G-4 to 6 Hour fixes as well.


It will shake out in 30 or so.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sarahjola:
PRweathercenter- dude with all due respect please stop posting from youtube. it screws up the whole blog. thanks

It's okay to post from YouTube, but people have to remember to correctly set the width/height parameters; don't go larger than 500px, or the Wunderblog will "break" in some browsers.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13597
Quoting cycleranger:


Pretty sure we're right next to each other. Not a large area to survey. Pretty sure all I need to do is climb on top of a tree & "Hazzah!" a few times.

I guess so... I do however, have a very large burn pile that needs a fire set to it...for all the trees we just had cut down around our home. I'm ready for mother nature this year! :) Plus, not knocking BC, but I'd rather be here than there...even if we do have the highest grocery prices in the Golden Triangle!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tiggeriffic:


peace loving....yeah...peace loving when everyone plays nice that is...have seen you go postal from a mail truck when the trolls are out from under the bridge lol


Well, they have no reason to be out from under that damned bridge...LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Back after work.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Rob Robbins, who is usually spot on isn't making any commitments yet on track. He says it is to early.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I have a bad feeling that Don is going to blow up tonight to maybe a strong TS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ugg I don't want another night time storm like Ike....wait till Saturday Morning there Don if you decide to come visit
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Looks like a late, late, late night shift is in store for tonight, lol.

Don continues to fire multiple updrafts despite dry air intrusion primarily on the northern and northeastern semicircles.



Next Recon mission leaves at 6:00 a.m (EDT) and arrives in the system after 7:30a.m (EDT).
So we should expect Hurricane Don at the 08z. jmo

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Outflow with Don will probably be restricted to the south and west, and suffocated to the north and east due to a suppressing ENE flow south of the big U.S. ridge. This means that the system won't be able to "breathe" all that well, but it will be sufficient for some strengthening.
someone finally looked at ALL the data before making a comment. thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Gaea:


No.
All of South Florida will be spared this year.
You will not get your storm.

Now, go play in the traffic, little one.



well said lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115347
Don is pushing dry air way from him....you can see clearly in the water vapor loop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
As long as we don't end up with something like this later in the year (or this week), I think we're all satisfied!


I remember that Katrina was one of the first storms that I monitored. Little did I know it was one of the most destructive natural disasters in history.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
291. Gaea
Quoting JoltyJacob:
Can someone plz post the 18Z-GFS?


No.
All of South Florida will be spared this year.
You will not get your storm.

Now, go play in the traffic, little one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Outflow with Don will probably be restricted to the south and west, and suffocated to the north and east due to a suppressing ENE flow south of the big U.S. ridge. This means that the system won't be able to "breathe" all that well, but it will be sufficient for some strengthening.


what about all of the moisture on the gulf coast headed towards don...what is the effect of that
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
Local mets are set on the storm going in between corpus and brownsville


Yep! So apparently we're good. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cycleranger:


Funny thing happened on the way to the...Recession.

If you're going to be stuck somewhere quite there could be less trees.

A mass extinction you say? I believe that one weekend where They hooked up the Sewage pipe to the Water pipe by accident was enough to kill off most of the sentient beings here. ;)


LOL...with one or two noteable exceptions (yourself among them, okay, so three) the sentient part may be stretchig it a bit..LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting zoomiami:


Hmm -- don't know if impressive is a good word or not. Teddy -- do you remember the conversation a year or so ago when we said we didn't want to be where you are? Since you have such a habit of being where the nasty hurricanes are? So, where are you so we can stay away!

Flood -- you sure seem to be popular today, must be those sunglasses. Nice to see you.


Yea, I have a nasty habit of being in the wrong place at the wrong time. In 1999, I was in Floyd, in 2003 I was in Isabel. Moved to Orlando in 2004, where I was hit by Charley, Frances, and then Jeanne directly. Went down to be with my family in SFL for a bit in August 2005, Katrina visited us, and I got some TS winds from Rita, and then I was helping my family move from SFL up north in October 2005 and we where hit by Wilma. Moved to Tampa in 2006, haven't seen a storm since besides Alberto and Beryl.

So, from 2003 - 2005 I was hit by 7 named storms, 6 where direct.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting superweatherman:
Is the HH still flying around Don?



i think there done for now but will be back later at 6am
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115347
285. JLPR2
Quoting Patrap:
classic.wunderground.com/tropical


ha! Now I see it, it's only the classic style of WU that gets affected.

People, it's time to move on, accept the change. XD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Back after work.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Basically our locals on TV did too.


You have mail.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
282. DFWjc
Quoting Floodman:


Me? Damn...I umm, well, that's kind of cool...thanks!


well i was going by EtexJC then, but i moved to DFW so i changed my name.... All props to you my good man!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Local mets are set on the storm going in between corpus and brownsville
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Floodman:


I am so sorry...to you AND to Tigs. Trying to work AND catch up with old friends; I'm not doing very well on either

How have you been, darlin'?


Ha ha! No worries...

Staying busy with 2 boys now. Big M was born in October last year. Plus I'm training for a half marathon in January, so running a bunch too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is the HH still flying around Don?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DFWjc:


He's the guy who got me to learn more about the tropics...


Me? Damn...I umm, well, that's kind of cool...thanks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
classic.wunderground.com/tropical
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like the dry air in Dons path may keep his strengthening to a minimum

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 326 - 276

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
47 °F
Overcast