Tropical Storm Don forms in the Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:29 PM GMT on July 27, 2011

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Tropical Storm Don, the fourth tropical cyclone of the 2011 season, has formed in the Gulf of Mexico just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane Hunters began investigating the system earlier this afternoon and quickly found a closed surface circulation. As the mission continued to gather data from what was thought to be a tropical depression at the time, winds of around 39 mph were found, as well as a 1001 mb central pressure, bringing the system up to tropical storm strength.


Figure 1. Satellite loop of Tropical Storm Don. This loop will stay current.

The official forecast for Don agrees with what most of the models have been suggesting over the past 24 hours. Don will make its way toward the northwest over the next 48 hours before making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Galveston. The statistical models tend to suggest a more southerly track toward Brownsville, and the dynamical models are forecasting anything from Corpus Christi to Galveston. They all tend to agree landfall will occur late on the 29th (Friday night). Whether or not Don will reach hurricane status is still in question. The Hurricane Center's initial forecast is that Don will remain a tropical storm until landfall. Today some models were intensifying Don to a strong tropical storm, but none crossed the hurricane threshold. Now that we have data from aircraft reconnaissance, the models will be able to get a better handle on potential intensity. The runs that occur later tonight and early tomorrow will have much less uncertainty than those from today.


Figure 2. Model forecast tracks for Tropical Storm Don as of Wednesday afternoon.

I believe Jeff will be back tomorrow for an update.

Angela

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Is it safe to say that Louisiana and east are in the clear with regards to Don?
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Quoting JLPR2:


If July ends with 4named storms I'll need a new jaw. XD


And we will need a new CHART..... cue THE CHART
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


If it does, that makes 4 named storms in July. The 2005 season only had 5.


So far, this hurricane season has been very active already on pair with the number of named storms we saw in 2008 though not as strong. A lot different from the last two seasons.
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Quoting weatherh98:
said they were surprised



Yes, they weren't expecting Don to be as strong as he was.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hurricane Hunter on TWC.
said they were surprised

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421. JLPR2
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Wouldn't be at all shocked if we're talking about the possibility of another storm over the weekend.
12z ECMWF.


The NOGAPS, GFS, and CMC are all showing a well defined wave with a closed circulation over the weekend before August ends, so we might see one more system before August 1st.


If July ends with 4named storms I'll need a new jaw. XD
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I live in Houston and remember TS Allison because it hit on my birthday and that was the only time my area of the neighborhood got flooding past the sidewalk of our street. But i dont feel Don will be a Allison because Allison was a freak storm doing that loop to hit Houston twice
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
HH said moving Northwest...
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OKay kids, I'm out...got to finish this work as tomorrow is another day...LOL

BBL
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HH says NW at 9 mph. NHC says WNW at 12 mph.
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416. xcool
don move nw 9mph hmmm
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


No, that is farther to the north (thank god):




ah nuts
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i was wanting too now if any thing from the navy site shows a eye froming
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Hurricane Hunter on TWC.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
will DON has that big old loop eddy to feed off of has well


No, that is farther to the north (thank god):

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Wouldn't be at all shocked if we're talking about the possibility of another storm over the weekend.
12z ECMWF.


The NOGAPS, GFS, and CMC are all showing a well defined wave with a closed circulation over the weekend before August ends, so we might see one more system.



its july 27 and it is vary close too the end of july its going to be vary tight if we will see other name storm but will see
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Quoting DFWjc:


Area, Cat - you got to be detailed...


LOUISIANA- morgan city
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Wouldn't be at all shocked if we're talking about the possibility of another storm over the weekend.
12z ECMWF.


The NOGAPS, GFS, and CMC are all showing a well defined wave with a closed circulation over the weekend before August ends, so we might see one more system.


If it does, that makes 4 named storms in July. The 2005 season only had 5.
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I have a feeling that since Don will have a little time over the warm GOM and not to strong wind shear and dry air limited he will have time to form to at least a Cat. 1 maybe a bit higher but as i said before i'm no meteorologist
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Quoting floridaboy14:

dont forgot allison move like 4mph over texas and the gulf states which produced major flooding don is expecting to move out pretty fast and im not saying a strong ts weak cat 1 is not bad im just saying it wont get VERY strong like a 2 or 3


We can never know that for sure, dry air won't be a problem come tomorrow night or Friday morning. Saying that it wont get very strong is premature.
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Wouldn't be at all shocked if we're talking about the possibility of another storm over the weekend.
12z ECMWF.


The NOGAPS, GFS, and CMC are all showing a well defined wave with a closed circulation over the weekend before July ends, so we might see one more system before August 1st.
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will DON has that big old loop eddy to feed off of has well
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403. amd
Quoting JLPR2:


There is a decent vort entering the Caribbean, but the one at 30W takes the cake.



yep, the one at 30 West 10 North already has a nice shape to it in terms of potential development. If it gets rid of the dry air, it could potentially be the 1st system to develop east of the Antilles. JMHO
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Local Met in Beaumont, Texas says that the cone could shift slightly and that we could expect 10 to 15 mph wind and a 60% chance of rain (based on current track)....that's the biggest percentage we have had since early May. Central Texas could definetely use this rain as we have had some showers over the last few days.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



LOL


we all most had a cat 5 last week


yes ill rephrase the epac is too boring cuz nothing will ever hit me
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399. xcool
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


A strong TS/weak Cat. 1 is still bad in some cases

i.e Tropical Storm Allison (2001)

dont forgot allison move like 4mph over texas and the gulf states which produced major flooding don is expecting to move out pretty fast and im not saying a strong ts weak cat 1 is not bad im just saying it wont get VERY strong like a 2 or 3
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397. DFWjc
Quoting weatherh98:


everywhere except tx


Area, Cat - you got to be detailed...
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Don seems to be in the process of developing an inner-core. If it does get one soon, I have no doubt that this won't be a hurricane, maybe even a Category 2 (highly unlikely atm).

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Quoting DFWjc:


okay I'll play the game, calling NE of Port Aransas. Cat 1 Hurricane.. any other takers?


everywhere except tx
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Quoting weatherh98:


Theepacis too boring



LOL


we all most had a cat 5 last week
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Quoting Tazmanian:
what do mode runs show on this wave this looks like 95E in the makeing



Theepacis too boring
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391. JLPR2
Quoting stormpetrol:


Next AOI?


There is a decent vort entering the Caribbean, but the one at 30W takes the cake.

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390. DFWjc
Quoting weatherh98:


you know where itll go if u want it to hit you right????


okay I'll play the game, calling NE of Port Aransas. Cat 1 Hurricane.. any other takers?
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Quoting floridaboy14:

small system get easily choked up by dry air. it depends how much we have and i dont want anyone to get scared that a monster hurricane is heading towards texas more the lines of a strong ts weak cat 1 DON WILL NOT GET STRONGER THAN A CAT 1. I PREDICTED A WHILE AGO DON WOULD DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN THE NW CARRIBEAN OR CENTRAL GOMEX AND I WAS RIGHT :) my original track for it when it was over hispanola was just north of brownsville now its south of courpis christi


A strong TS/weak Cat. 1 is still bad in some cases

i.e Tropical Storm Allison (2001)
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388. xcool
don becoming more organized
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what do mode runs show on this wave this looks like 95E in the makeing

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1800 GFS has center making landfall between matagorda bay and galveston bay.
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I think Don could surprise a lot of people. I'm not a fan of watching the models for this storm. They are great for possible steering, but when it comes to intensity, I throw them out the window. What have the models done for us lately? NAM was the only one showing it the past two days, while the rest of them were sleeping on it. Pretty pathetic to me.

As everyone has mentioned, dry air will be the only factor prohibiting this storm from developing too fast. The weaker the system, the further north it will go. Stronger the system, the further south it goes.

There's plenty of water and warm SST's to work with, and this wave has had a history of moistening the environment ahead of it. We'll see what happens, but smaller systems can wrap up and develop faster than larger systems.

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Quoting Grothar:


Flood!


Grothar! Wie geht's?
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LOUISIANA
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Dry air, unless very very big in abundance, does not affect a tropical storm. At least, not nearly as much as it does disturbances, waves, or tropical depressions.

small system get easily choked up by dry air. it depends how much we have and i dont want anyone to get scared that a monster hurricane is heading towards texas more the lines of a strong ts weak cat 1 DON WILL NOT GET STRONGER THAN A CAT 1. I PREDICTED A WHILE AGO DON WOULD DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN THE NW CARRIBEAN OR CENTRAL GOMEX AND I WAS RIGHT :) my original track for it when it was over hispanola was just north of brownsville now its south of courpis christi
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Next AOI?
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Quoting DFWjc:


He's Texas' storm, you stay out of it Louisiana!


you know where itll go if u want it to hit you right????
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Quoting Skeptic33:


Entire Texas could use some rain, not just SE.


I understand what your saying that near all of Texas needs rain, but SE Texas has some of the highest deficits of rain in Texas
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
I see we have tropical storm Don..interesting that the past tracks of Don were all mostly tropical storms..just a few made it to hurricane strength but this one might just make that elite category..



rain totals for Texas days 1-3..yall desperately need it..

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Quoting smmcdavid:


Ha ha! No worries...

Staying busy with 2 boys now. Big M was born in October last year. Plus I'm training for a half marathon in January, so running a bunch too.


Congratulations, darlin'! and now a half marathon? You youngsters...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Environmental conditions aren't superb, so I personally believe rapid intensification is unlikely. I do however believe that Don will intensify modestly in between now and the next Recon mission.
Good afternoon Miami. Any thoughts about the system there by the Antilles ? Doesn't seem to be too shabby and I don't think(jmo) conditions are that bad to prohibit something spinning up.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.