Tropical Storm Don forms in the Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:29 PM GMT on July 27, 2011

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Tropical Storm Don, the fourth tropical cyclone of the 2011 season, has formed in the Gulf of Mexico just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane Hunters began investigating the system earlier this afternoon and quickly found a closed surface circulation. As the mission continued to gather data from what was thought to be a tropical depression at the time, winds of around 39 mph were found, as well as a 1001 mb central pressure, bringing the system up to tropical storm strength.


Figure 1. Satellite loop of Tropical Storm Don. This loop will stay current.

The official forecast for Don agrees with what most of the models have been suggesting over the past 24 hours. Don will make its way toward the northwest over the next 48 hours before making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Galveston. The statistical models tend to suggest a more southerly track toward Brownsville, and the dynamical models are forecasting anything from Corpus Christi to Galveston. They all tend to agree landfall will occur late on the 29th (Friday night). Whether or not Don will reach hurricane status is still in question. The Hurricane Center's initial forecast is that Don will remain a tropical storm until landfall. Today some models were intensifying Don to a strong tropical storm, but none crossed the hurricane threshold. Now that we have data from aircraft reconnaissance, the models will be able to get a better handle on potential intensity. The runs that occur later tonight and early tomorrow will have much less uncertainty than those from today.


Figure 2. Model forecast tracks for Tropical Storm Don as of Wednesday afternoon.

I believe Jeff will be back tomorrow for an update.

Angela

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Mid-level circulation still a little bit dis-coupled with the low-level one, but they will be together very shortly. Once this happens, expect modest strengthening. I'm expecting a 50-60 mph tropical storm when I wake up tomorrow morning.


I didn't know you lived in Texas?
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY FORMED
TROPICAL STORM DON LOCATED ABOUT 755 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TEXAS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM DON ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES
ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT4.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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474. yoboi
Quoting tennisgirl08:


Looks like Don is getting smushed via its northern side. Whatever is causing this is also causing it to slow down. I'm thinking Don is looking a little more ragged now, but once it starts moving again it will move further west and gain more strength.


looks like it is jogging to the NNW
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Quoting Grothar:
Don doesn't look so good right now, but as we all know that doesn't mean much in a developing system. It seems to have a little better outflowto the NW, but as Levi alluded to before, it is getting a little crunched in the Northeast. It appears it will try to wrap a little moisture from the Northeast which is beginning to move down.



looks like a fifty gro
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Motion has slowed to 9 mph,as maybe a tad bit o Land friction is impeding Don Juan this evening.

Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128616
Don doesn't look so good right now, but as we all know that doesn't mean much in a developing system. It seems to have a little better outflowto the NW, but as Levi alluded to before, it is getting a little crunched in the Northeast. It appears it will try to wrap a little moisture from the Northeast which is beginning to move down.

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Quoting lucreto:
Looks like a landfall around High Island as a wave/ depression its looking worse than ever and I am amazed the NHC classified it.

Is it your lifetime ambition to basically say the oppisite of what people are saying or conventional wisdom?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Mid-level circulation still a little bit dis-coupled with the low-level one, but they will be together very shortly. Once this happens, expect modest strengthening. I'm expecting a 50-60 mph tropical storm when I wake up tomorrow morning.



good luck with that am forcasting 70 too 90mph storm when i wake up
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Whoa. I didn't foresee it waning this much.


Loop: Link


Back when Don was just an invest, he didn't feel the effects of DMAX and DMIN. Now, it appears he is. Don't worry though, because now he is a TC, he will get a lot stronger during DMAX tomorrow.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
The GFS and NOGAPS are showing a low pressure area developing in the SW Caribbean before August 1st too, though such a system will likely have strong competition from the EPAC and limited time over water.




NASA GMAO really likes that one.
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Quoting Patrap:
The MSLP is interesting


Wow
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Mid-level circulation still a little bit dis-coupled with the low-level one, but they will be together very shortly. Once this happens, expect modest strengthening. I'm expecting a 50-60 mph tropical storm when I wake up tomorrow morning.
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I think anywhere from west La. to TX/MX border could be a possibility of landfall.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



has the storm gets stronger then may be yes


Looks like Don is getting smushed via its northern side. Whatever is causing this is also causing it to slow down. I'm thinking Don is looking a little more ragged now, but once it starts moving again it will move further west and gain more strength.
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Quoting Floodman:


Grothar! Wie geht's?


Es ist gegangen. Now you show up.
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Whoa. I didn't foresee it waning this much.


Loop: Link
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Quoting GHOSTY1:
I have a feeling that since Don will have a little time over the warm GOM and not to strong wind shear and dry air limited he will have time to form to at least a Cat. 1 maybe a bit higher but as i said before i'm no meteorologist


I wouldn't be surprised to see a minimal hurricane either, but that depends on how much the atmospheric conditions evolve. Right now I don't think any of the models I've seen call for a hurricane at landfall.
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Quoting bigwes6844:
july u mean not august


Obviously.. I'll correct it.
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Even with Don slowing down to 9mph what do you think the chances of any direct impacts on Houston would be? (percentages preferablly)
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
Quoting taco2me61:
Wow HH said it has slowed to 9MPH mmmmmm
are we looking at a little more north than they thought????

Taco :o)


You must live in the Houston/Galveston area or Louisiana.
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Quoting taco2me61:
Wow HH said it has slowed to 9MPH mmmmmm
are we looking at a little more north than they thought????

Taco :o)


Like i said Louisiana
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128616
Quoting weatherguy03:
TS Don Evening Update With Video

Thanks Bob.
.
There's many of us who have been reading Weatherguy03 for years.
And he's been right more than wrong and right slightly more than NHC over the years. The video is strongly recommended.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Wouldn't be at all shocked if we're talking about the possibility of another storm over the weekend.
12z ECMWF.


The NOGAPS, GFS, and CMC are all showing a well defined wave with a closed circulation over the weekend before August ends, so we might see one more system before August 1st.
july u mean not august
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1008mb low from that tropical wave this means buisness as it gets further west. its funny how we are seeing lots of storms but further west. when we get to the cape verde season that will be scary
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Latest Viz

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128616
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good afternoon Miami. Any thoughts about the system there by the Antilles ? Doesn't seem to be too shabby and I don't think(jmo) conditions are that bad to prohibit something spinning up.
Good afternoon! I've been keeping an eye on that feature, but since Don is currently the main concern I haven't discussed this one too much.

Upper level winds are somewhat conducive for development, and vorticity isn't too shabby at 850mb beneath the convective blob east of Martinique. Although the system poses a threat to develop (as does any tropical wave as we head into August) I personally don't think it will amount to much as it moves towards the west/west-northwest).

The feature that is really worth watching is the low pressure system south of the Cape Verde islands. This one has modest model support, and could be a problem in a few days.
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Quoting taco2me61:
Wow HH said it has slowed to 9MPH mmmmmm
are we looking at a little more north than they thought????

Taco :o)



has the storm gets stronger then may be yes
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Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY FORMED
TROPICAL STORM DON LOCATED ABOUT 755 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TEXAS.



Still got mileage to go if headed in that direction
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T.C.F.W.
04L/TS/D/CX
MARK
22.33N/87.13W

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Wow HH said it has slowed to 9MPH mmmmmm
are we looking at a little more north than they thought????

Taco :o)
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Wouldn't be at all shocked if we're talking about the possibility of another storm over the weekend.
12z ECMWF.


The NOGAPS, GFS, and CMC are all showing a well defined wave with a closed circulation over the weekend before August ends, so we might see one more system before August 1st.
hmm...interesting...do you know if the A/B high is forecasted to strengthen or weaken?
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Quoting stormpetrol:


Resembles Hot Towers Pat!



Kinda does, a nice convective Burst near D-Min.

Impressive Padawan Don Tejas' is as we approach D-min

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128616
epic fail sorry i meant to post the chart.....
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Quoting help4u:
Taz is that a pin-hole eye forming?




may be
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438. DFWjc
Quoting Floodman:


NE of Corpus if it's a TS (San Antonio could sure use the rain)...pretty much dead on Corpus if it goes to CAT1 status...all bets are off for a storm any stronger than that


So we got 2 for around Corpus and one in Louisiana, any other takers?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yes, they weren't expecting Don to be as strong as he was.

O Percent chance a couple of days back, then 20 percent, then.............shazam !
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Taz is that a pin-hole eye forming?
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you no the stronger DON gets the more N they will go
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The GFS and NOGAPS are showing a low pressure area developing in the SW Caribbean before August 1st too, though such a system will likely have strong competition from the EPAC and limited time over water.

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src="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/#cp100">
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432. xcool
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Quoting floridaboy14:

dont forgot allison move like 4mph over texas and the gulf states which produced major flooding don is expecting to move out pretty fast and im not saying a strong ts weak cat 1 is not bad im just saying it wont get VERY strong like a 2 or 3


Could not make it home that night... Allison caught us by surprise...
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Quoting DFWjc:


okay I'll play the game, calling NE of Port Aransas. Cat 1 Hurricane.. any other takers?


NE of Corpus if it's a TS (San Antonio could sure use the rain)...pretty much dead on Corpus if it goes to CAT1 status...all bets are off for a storm any stronger than that
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Quoting Patrap:


Resembles Hot Towers Pat!
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Quoting ncstorm:
I see we have tropical storm Don..interesting that the past tracks of Don were all mostly tropical storms..just a few made it to hurricane strength but this one might just make that elite category..



rain totals for Texas days 1-3..yall desperately need it..

Interestingly 2 of those went right over the Tampa bay area.
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Is it safe to say that Louisiana and east are in the clear with regards to Don?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.