Tropical Storm Don forms in the Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:29 PM GMT on July 27, 2011

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Tropical Storm Don, the fourth tropical cyclone of the 2011 season, has formed in the Gulf of Mexico just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane Hunters began investigating the system earlier this afternoon and quickly found a closed surface circulation. As the mission continued to gather data from what was thought to be a tropical depression at the time, winds of around 39 mph were found, as well as a 1001 mb central pressure, bringing the system up to tropical storm strength.


Figure 1. Satellite loop of Tropical Storm Don. This loop will stay current.

The official forecast for Don agrees with what most of the models have been suggesting over the past 24 hours. Don will make its way toward the northwest over the next 48 hours before making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Galveston. The statistical models tend to suggest a more southerly track toward Brownsville, and the dynamical models are forecasting anything from Corpus Christi to Galveston. They all tend to agree landfall will occur late on the 29th (Friday night). Whether or not Don will reach hurricane status is still in question. The Hurricane Center's initial forecast is that Don will remain a tropical storm until landfall. Today some models were intensifying Don to a strong tropical storm, but none crossed the hurricane threshold. Now that we have data from aircraft reconnaissance, the models will be able to get a better handle on potential intensity. The runs that occur later tonight and early tomorrow will have much less uncertainty than those from today.


Figure 2. Model forecast tracks for Tropical Storm Don as of Wednesday afternoon.

I believe Jeff will be back tomorrow for an update.

Angela

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Quoting MississippiWx:
With the luck Texas has been having, the storm will make landfall around the TX/LA border and bring mostly subsidence to Texas. Let's HOPE that's not the case. LOL.


Lol. SSSHH! We don't say that out loud. I swear I wasn't even thinking it. HEHE..Seriously though It looks like he's coming in far enough south to benefit more of TX. I hope the ridge is far enough east and he grows and drags a lot of water through the state.
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Quoting taco2me61:


I agree with this....

The High will be over Ga/TN area by Friday and things could be just a bit different....

I also think a low end Cat 2.... said it yesterday and if I need crow I be glad to eat some after landfall....



Taco :o)


i will cook it for both of us if we are wrong...but dont think so on this one...the track is constantly shifting right...and that ridge that is supposed to hold is ahead of schedule...we were supposed to have rain till friday and it started lifting out this evening...that high is going faster and further north than expected
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


i agree upper 1 to low 2...however...have a funny feeling bout that high that is pushing east...feeling it is gonna lift higher and move more east than models predicting...


Yeah, I've got that feeling, too. But a high pressure is supposed to build back under the ridge. If that doesn't happen- I would expect MAJOR changes in track.
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573. xcool
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 JUL 2011 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 22:21:47 N Lon : 87:19:19 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1001.9mb/ 41.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 3.1 3.8
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With the unbelievable strong high pressure kicking this states butt for months I would be very surprised if Don hits any further north than the Central Texas Coast. Not going to get excited about Don until he comes over my house. :) Very few times in 2011 with a great chance of rain have we actually received any. I think the weathermen around here are afraid to predict rain.
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Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 3.1 3.8

Center Temp : -46.0C Cloud Region Temp : -53.9C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.88 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1013mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 29.6 degrees
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Quoting tennisgirl08:


Patrap- from that pic it looks to be getting hammered on its' northern side. Environmentally, conditions don't look that great, but this could change by tomorrow.


Its a offset atm seems,, some things going for Don,some against
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting tiggeriffic:


i agree upper 1 to low 2...however...have a funny feeling bout that high that is pushing east...feeling it is gonna lift higher and move more east than models predicting...


I agree with this....

The High will be over Ga/TN area by Friday and things could be just a bit different....

I also think a low end Cat 2.... said it yesterday and if I need crow I be glad to eat some after landfall....



Taco :o)
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I gotta go I'll be back later tonight! Thx for responding to my first blogs with great responses.
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





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Texas needs all the rain it can get, especially central Texas. Best would be hit on central coast and track into west central Texas. Hard to ask for perfect situation but several inches of rain and no pockets of extreme flash flooding amounts is perfect. I would take it all and tell folks just stay off the roads and don't try to cross water, we need it not your ignorance. Change your life due to weather for one day.
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This loop sped up fast shows very nicely how the western side of Don is growing as the upper low west of it retreats, while the eastern side is getting suppressed by a northeasterly flow from over Florida, associated with the big U.S. ridge to the north.
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Pressure down a bit more, says ATCF:

AL, 04, 2011072800, , BEST, 0, 225N, 876W, 35, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 40, 0, 0,
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Quoting Patrap:


Patrap- from that pic it looks to be getting hammered on its' northern side. Environmentally, conditions don't look that great, but this could change by tomorrow.
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This Ghetto MM5 model shows Don making landfall in Louisiana.

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With the luck Texas has been having, the storm will make landfall around the TX/LA border and bring mostly subsidence to Texas. Let's HOPE that's not the case. LOL.
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559. Gaea
Quoting Hurricanes101:


not even shower curtains?

I brought a shower curtain to Jason. Have you not gazed upon it's lovely sunflower patina?
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Quoting tennisgirl08:


The NHC did mention the possibility of a center reformation. I wonder how this would affect the track? Levi32?


it would probably shift everything northward. Towards galveston and TX/LOU border would be my guess but I am still leaning on Corpus Christi
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Quoting tennisgirl08:


The NHC did mention the possibility of a center reformation. I wonder how this would affect the track? Levi32?
Maybe shift more to the north?
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Quoting NOLALawyer:


High Cat 1 to low Cat 2, into Corpus.


i agree upper 1 to low 2...however...have a funny feeling bout that high that is pushing east...feeling it is gonna lift higher and move more east than models predicting...
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:




TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 15N27W TO
8N30W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE
WAVE AXIS NEAR 8N30W. THE SYSTEM IS WELL DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTION
IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH S OF THE WAVE.



That's TWD, not TWO.
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553. DFWjc
Quoting gulfbreeze:
Didn't Alice go inland west of Houston?


made landfall about 25 mi (40 km) southwest of Galveston, Texas.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Alicia
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


not even shower curtains?


Hehe...
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Quoting NOLALawyer:


High Cat 1 to low Cat 2, into Corpus.


I also go with high cat1 or cat2 into corpus christi but minimum cat 1 is more likely
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
Quoting HuracanKY:


Still early days yet. There is a 1008mb low along the wave axis but little thunderstorm activity at the moment. Great cyclonic turning though, and it shows up nicely on the vorticity maps. This should be watched, especially when after it moves a bit farther west.


I agree. I'm more concerned with this one.
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I suspect IR is actually making us think Don is weakening, wehn in fact if we had Visible satellite available we would see improved outflow channels and a tightening core.
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Quoting gulfbreeze:
Didn't Alice go inland west of Houston?


Hmmm... I don't remember that...I do remember having to evac from Crystal Beach though. It was the last time I traveled on Hwy 87 to Port Arthur...then it was 2 feet deep under sand.
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I see the tropical waves are now beginning to roll off of Africa with lows. We're coming to that time of year and the the season is about to get lively - this blog even more so.
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Quoting Gaea:

I am not bringing you anything.


not even shower curtains?
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There is a pretty large area in the EPAC which also looks suspicious to me
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Quoting cloudburst2011:



its hard to tell right now it looks to me like the center is trying to reform northeast of the previous one...


The NHC did mention the possibility of a center reformation. I wonder how this would affect the track? Levi32?
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Quoting DFWjc:


So we got 2 for around Corpus and one in Louisiana, any other takers?


High Cat 1 to low Cat 2, into Corpus.
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Quoting Grothar:


I concur.


Abuelo, i thought you were flying out of town?
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Quoting Tazmanian:
DON seems too be moveing N
Looks more NW to me.
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Quoting DFWjc:


Alicia did a number to Texas in '83
Didn't Alice go inland west of Houston?
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Quoting wolftribe2009:
Well I forecasted 3 storms for July. Don became the third storm today. That is why I always stick to my forecast and don't deter off it for anything.

NOAA and other forecasters have Don making landfall somewhere between Corpus Cristi and Galveston. I am surprised that I actually have no problem agreeing with them. I am leaning more on corpus Christi area and CAT 2 (100 MPH) keeps "striking a Nerve" with me.


I agree with the ULL over Mexico somewhat protecting Don from the stronger windshear to its northeast i believe Don will form into a Cat. 1 or Cat. 2 Hurricane because there is little to no dry air.
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
Quoting Gaea:

I am not bringing you anything.


=(
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Quoting gulfscout:
Is it true that the storm is now moving northwest instead of wnw?


Yes, but this could be only temporary- or just an illusion via satellite.
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Outflow expanding nicely to the west with Don as the upper low over the western Gulf of Mexico retreats:

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Quoting gulfscout:
Is it true that the storm is now moving northwest instead of wnw?



its hard to tell right now it looks to me like the center is trying to reform northeast of the previous one...
Member Since: June 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 896
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
needs a little more time sun just gone down if convective refire fails to init then we may have a weaker system but iam expecting convective refire to commence by 11 pm est and expand and dev further at that time as well


I concur.
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531. Gaea
Quoting JoltyJacob:


Keeper, you ready for the peak? Cause you know that I am, ^_^. I wonder what Mother Nature will bring Miami, Fl, come September and October, =).

I am not bringing you anything.
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Well I forecasted 3 storms for July. Don became the third storm today. That is why I always stick to my forecast and don't deter off it for anything.

NOAA and other forecasters have Don making landfall somewhere between Corpus Cristi and Galveston. I am surprised that I actually have no problem agreeing with them. I am leaning more on corpus Christi area and CAT 2 (100 MPH) keeps "striking a Nerve" with me.
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Quoting JoltyJacob:


Keeper, you ready for the peak? Cause you know that I am, ^_^. I wonder what Mother Nature will bring Miami, Fl, come September and October, =).
What are your thoughts on the matter, SIR.
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Quoting gulfbreeze:
Texas needs the rain but as dry as it's been the ground is hard as rock. I lived in Auston 1983-85 and to much rain will cause some major Flash Floods!!
Unless this thing grows into a monster the good will far outweigh the bad.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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