Tropical Storm Don forms in the Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:29 PM GMT on July 27, 2011

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Tropical Storm Don, the fourth tropical cyclone of the 2011 season, has formed in the Gulf of Mexico just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane Hunters began investigating the system earlier this afternoon and quickly found a closed surface circulation. As the mission continued to gather data from what was thought to be a tropical depression at the time, winds of around 39 mph were found, as well as a 1001 mb central pressure, bringing the system up to tropical storm strength.


Figure 1. Satellite loop of Tropical Storm Don. This loop will stay current.

The official forecast for Don agrees with what most of the models have been suggesting over the past 24 hours. Don will make its way toward the northwest over the next 48 hours before making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Galveston. The statistical models tend to suggest a more southerly track toward Brownsville, and the dynamical models are forecasting anything from Corpus Christi to Galveston. They all tend to agree landfall will occur late on the 29th (Friday night). Whether or not Don will reach hurricane status is still in question. The Hurricane Center's initial forecast is that Don will remain a tropical storm until landfall. Today some models were intensifying Don to a strong tropical storm, but none crossed the hurricane threshold. Now that we have data from aircraft reconnaissance, the models will be able to get a better handle on potential intensity. The runs that occur later tonight and early tomorrow will have much less uncertainty than those from today.


Figure 2. Model forecast tracks for Tropical Storm Don as of Wednesday afternoon.

I believe Jeff will be back tomorrow for an update.

Angela

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Quoting CanesfanatUT:


Wouldn't that violate the zeroth law of thermodynamics?
Yeah, I think it does...or gets close to violation.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting Tazmanian:



in fac it looks like it heading in too land


What happened to RI? Make up your mind dude as you can scare the hell out of people with the stuff you and others post
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Don't answer if you don't want to, report me if you want to, ignore me if you want to. Just want to see everyone elses opinions.

Q: How strong will Don be at 11PM?

A. 30 kt. (35 mph) TD
B. 35 kt. (40 mph) TS
C. 40 kt. (45 mph) TS
D. 45 kt. (50 mph) TS
E. Higher or lower


I agree with 40 MPH (45 tops)
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Don't answer if you don't want to, report me if you want to, ignore me if you want to. Just want to see everyone elses opinions.

Q: How strong will Don be at 11PM?

A. 30 kt. (35 mph) TD
B. 35 kt. (40 mph) TS
C. 40 kt. (45 mph) TS
D. 45 kt. (50 mph) TS
E. Higher or lower


C
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
And so, the Gulf season starts!!!
Not looking forward to any storms. It just means, we in the path have to change our plans! Tomorrow I'll have to start bringing the ply-wood up the stairs! That's no small chore for this 80 year oldster!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Evening everybody... does anyone remember if Doc M. went on vacation during 2006? LOL

Don is there, but still working on getting it all together, it seems. Hope it ends up solely as a much needed rainmaker for TX....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Don't answer if you don't want to, report me if you want to, ignore me if you want to. Just want to see everyone elses opinions.

Q: How strong will Don be at 11PM?

A. 30 kt. (35 mph) TD
B. 35 kt. (40 mph) TS
C. 40 kt. (45 mph) TS
D. 45 kt. (50 mph) TS
E. Higher or lower


B.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 575 Comments: 20597
918. yoboi
Quoting louisianaboy444:
Looked outside and seen a green line in the sky now i realize its the old clipper 5 lol...thats the model i'm going with haha :)


i just kicked a mule in the azz and he ran in circles go figure
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2337
Quoting MississippiWx:
Convergence is still weak and broad with Don, telling us that the low still has a lot of work to do before it can become strong enough to be a hurricane:



Still can't understand the Convergence Grapic if its right or wrong. This use to be dead on most of the time. I am clueless this time. If a TS is indeed there has to be convergence occuring. I use to rely on this graphic a ton, so i am not fooled into what i was seeing. Scratching Head!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
It appears the rotation that's spinning off to the NW is more mid-level and associated with the decaying convection. I'm inclined to believe that the actual low center is farther Southeast and fairly close to the northern edge of the blob coming off the Yucatan.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10248
Quoting atmoaggie:
Cancun sounding for 00 UTC. Wet.



Definitely wetter than 12z, for good reason.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128287
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
look at the water temp!!


Shallow, so naturally cooler. Bottom line is that Don needs to get out of there.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Don might not be looking as impressive right now but that is due to his location close to land. Tomorrow is when the real fun begins (Or lack there of) but temps ahead of the storm are plenty warm to help fuel the increase. So I say you shouldn't be fooled by what is going on right now.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
911. angelafritz (Admin)
Quoting RitaEvac:
Angela, I'm just playing with ya but how is that crow? you mentined that 90L had seen it's day and it's best days were behind it. lol :)


Absolutely! Many of us had given up on this system, although I do think I remember mentioning that I didn't quite understand why the models were disliking it so much. The environment was there. Like I say, this will make a nice little masters thesis for someone looking into tropical cyclone generation forecasts and/or data assimilation.
Cancun sounding for 00 UTC. Wet.

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Awwww man! Now I want bacon!

Darn it...We don't have any. Now I'm sad :(


I was thinking the same thing about the vodka.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Don't answer if you don't want to, report me if you want to, ignore me if you want to. Just want to see everyone elses opinions.

Q: How strong will Don be at 11PM?

A. 30 kt. (35 mph) TD
B. 35 kt. (40 mph) TS
C. 40 kt. (45 mph) TS
D. 45 kt. (50 mph) TS
E. Higher or lower
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32056
Quoting centex:
The track does not seem right to me. It should be under than up, not up and under.


Up and under is most likely correct if the system is strengthening as it goes, as the steering turns it more westerly as the system grows deeper.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting Walnut:

We aren't allowed. Stage 2 water restrictions.


you can as long as you wash it on your watering day :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It looks to me like the high pressure to the northeast is finally spreading its wings over the top of Don, and with it, all the deep moisture.

It's becoming a little more symmetrical tonight on the northeast side.

He's had two strikes against him today. The Yucatan, and an inability to vent on the northeast and east sides. Now both of those are resolving.
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Quoting CanesfanatUT:


Disheveled - that's my new word for the week. It was tepid.


How about panegyric or anti-obscurantism?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
what are you having on yours
Curry but not for me. This one is for Levi and Kori. I can wait for mine.
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Quoting Tazmanian:




if you guys want rain in TX wash your Care
NO WATER !!!!!!!!!
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Quoting CatfishJones:
Technophobia. It's like the Aedipus of the modern age. The computer is a tool, so use it as one.


Be one with the computer.....................,
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Quoting atmoaggie:
This is just odd. not sure if it is real, or not.

Look at the 84F dewpoints in the gulf:


Exhibited by all sorts of analyses all over the web in multiple ways.

Wonder if it just one bad buoy ob...but the plot above is the NCEP analysis. After quality controls.
(And I've seen it in different places over the last day.)


Wouldn't that violate the zeroth law of thermodynamics?
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 527
763

WHXX01 KWBC 280035

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0035 UTC THU JUL 28 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL CYCLONE DON (AL042011) 20110728 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110728 0000 110728 1200 110729 0000 110729 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 22.5N 87.6W 23.5N 89.4W 24.6N 91.3W 25.7N 93.4W

BAMD 22.5N 87.6W 23.2N 89.4W 23.7N 91.5W 24.1N 93.7W

BAMM 22.5N 87.6W 23.3N 89.3W 24.1N 91.3W 24.8N 93.5W

LBAR 22.5N 87.6W 23.4N 89.6W 24.5N 91.8W 25.6N 94.0W

SHIP 35KTS 42KTS 49KTS 53KTS

DSHP 35KTS 42KTS 49KTS 53KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110730 0000 110731 0000 110801 0000 110802 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 26.6N 95.4W 28.3N 100.0W 30.4N 104.4W 32.6N 106.7W

BAMD 24.5N 96.2W 25.2N 101.5W 26.3N 107.2W 27.9N 112.1W

BAMM 25.6N 95.9W 27.1N 101.1W 29.1N 105.7W 31.3N 108.1W

LBAR 26.7N 96.4W 28.8N 101.0W 31.3N 104.9W 35.0N 105.5W

SHIP 57KTS 63KTS 67KTS 64KTS

DSHP 57KTS 31KTS 27KTS 27KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 22.5N LONCUR = 87.6W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 8KT

LATM12 = 21.8N LONM12 = 86.3W DIRM12 = 302DEG SPDM12 = 7KT

LATM24 = 21.1N LONM24 = 84.5W

WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 110NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53839
Quoting MississippiWx:
Don is really struggling right now:




in fac it looks like it heading in too land
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115107
Quoting Tazmanian:



do it at 2am when no one watching

LOL - someone is always watching... rewards, ya know...
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Seems the Dynamic runs shifted south by 60 miles or so.

00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Don
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128287
Quoting atmoaggie:
You have a point about the resolution, but there are ways to utilize it anyway.

Thanks for the link.

This doesn't inspire confidence. (Number of dropsondes included in GFS).


That image gets a big fat straight face from me. The number of dropsondes should be a heck of a lot more than that.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting atmoaggie:
You have a point about the resolution, but there are ways to utilize it anyway.

Thanks for the link.

This doesn't inspire confidence. (Number of dropsondes included in GFS).


LOL - does that say 1 (one) dropsnode in the GFS over that length of time??
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 527
Quoting CanesfanatUT:


Disheveled - that's my new word for the week. It was tepid.


Glad to help. ;)
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 575 Comments: 20597
The track does not seem right to me. It should be under than up, not up and under.
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Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
As I recall from memory, the Yucatan tip has never been overly friendly to any system that has passed too close by.
Except Alex last year. He loved the Yucatan.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Don is really struggling right now:

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10248
Quoting floridaboy14:

whats causing convection to wain by the center but fire up over the yucatan? Diurnal minimum?, shear? dry air? land proximity?


All of the above, really. Daytime heating is causing the Yucatan to blossom and steal some of the upward motion from the oceanic convection. Dry air to the west is probably being lightly entrained as well, and upper winds from the northeast to the northeast of the system are helping to push the convection south of the center, as it has since last night.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting Patrap:
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Don
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




did the models move SOUTH ???
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Oh man,, sexy Tropical Fine Gridded stuff.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128287
Quoting Walnut:

We aren't allowed. Stage 2 water restrictions.



do it at 2am when no one watching
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115107
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I'm using this site and yes for the GFS. To use HDOB data I would think it would have to be smoothed, to match up with the model resolution. They could be using it in the cyclone models since they have a much higher resolution in the inner nest.
You have a point about the resolution, but there are ways to utilize it anyway.

Thanks for the link.

This doesn't inspire confidence. (Number of dropsondes included in GFS).
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting Tazmanian:




if you guys want rain in TX wash your Care

We aren't allowed. Stage 2 water restrictions.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Technophobia. It's like the Aedipus of the modern age. The computer is a tool, so use it as one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Kori, the crow is ready whenever you are :) Now, thoughts on the wave in the eastern Caribbean and the one around 35W ?
what are you having on yours
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53839
This is just odd. not sure if it is real, or not.

Look at the 84F dewpoints in the gulf:


Exhibited by all sorts of analyses all over the web in multiple ways.

Wonder if it just one bad buoy ob...but the plot above is the NCEP analysis. After quality controls.
(And I've seen it in different places over the last day.)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting KoritheMan:


Well, the northeastern side is rather disheveled at the moment. There's no denying that.


Disheveled - that's my new word for the week. It was tepid.
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 527

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.