Tropical Storm Don forms in the Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:29 PM GMT on July 27, 2011

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Tropical Storm Don, the fourth tropical cyclone of the 2011 season, has formed in the Gulf of Mexico just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane Hunters began investigating the system earlier this afternoon and quickly found a closed surface circulation. As the mission continued to gather data from what was thought to be a tropical depression at the time, winds of around 39 mph were found, as well as a 1001 mb central pressure, bringing the system up to tropical storm strength.


Figure 1. Satellite loop of Tropical Storm Don. This loop will stay current.

The official forecast for Don agrees with what most of the models have been suggesting over the past 24 hours. Don will make its way toward the northwest over the next 48 hours before making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Galveston. The statistical models tend to suggest a more southerly track toward Brownsville, and the dynamical models are forecasting anything from Corpus Christi to Galveston. They all tend to agree landfall will occur late on the 29th (Friday night). Whether or not Don will reach hurricane status is still in question. The Hurricane Center's initial forecast is that Don will remain a tropical storm until landfall. Today some models were intensifying Don to a strong tropical storm, but none crossed the hurricane threshold. Now that we have data from aircraft reconnaissance, the models will be able to get a better handle on potential intensity. The runs that occur later tonight and early tomorrow will have much less uncertainty than those from today.


Figure 2. Model forecast tracks for Tropical Storm Don as of Wednesday afternoon.

I believe Jeff will be back tomorrow for an update.

Angela

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Also the appearance and outflow is getting better and better regardless of the waning convection. The convection will come back no issue there, things are setting up for a strong tropical storm, but a small one I might add.
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1175. GHOSTY1
From NOAA's floater for Don it looks like some convection which could possibly be spiral bands are forming to Don's west and he already has some bands to the East so he may be beginning to start intensifying for us. All he needs to do is get the north and some south going then we got some big action going.
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
Off to bed. Large feeder band taking shape in the SE quad.

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Neil Frank said hurricane not out of the question, and if it were to come a cane, we don't have time to prepare.
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The lakes here-Coleto and Texana are so low here too that they now have beaches! lol Am not even sure you can get boats into them now. The rain would be most welcome.
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The coc is Certainly in this location.

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1169. GHOSTY1
For everyone who leaves "Good Night" and we'll see what happens to Don.
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
Quoting beell:


Don having a bit of trouble becoming a separate entity from the strong tropical wave circulation?
maybe. i don't know. i would really like to know for certain where the coc is. i am wondering what this new development might do to the future track of don, if it can remain don. its just not clear on unenhanced or wv where the coc is. i really don't think its anywhere near where the nhc thinks it should be. guess we just have to wait and see.
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1167. GHOSTY1
For everyone out of Houston if you want to watch him go to KHOU's website and listen in.
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:



Good model support for this wave. We should see 91L as early as tomorrow.

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1164. GHOSTY1
Sorry guys and gals for the multiple false alarms, i heard that Dr. Neil Frank is coming on KHOU in Houston and i'm hoping he can shed some light on these people who see no significant developement, he has been slightly wrong in the past, but anyone can be wrong and i trust him.
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
1163. angiest
Quoting mamakins:


I love Dr. Neil! I had property in Weston Lakes and got a chance to meet him. Nice man.


In 2009. I think, he spoke at my employer about hurricane preparedness, Ike, etc. I got a chance to speak with him for a couple of minutes.
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Wat is the SHIPS doing? Keeping it at a Cat 1 over land??? Or does SHIPS loop it around or something? I don't understand it's intensity trend.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 JUL 2011 Time : 021500 UTC
Lat : 22:43:46 N Lon : 87:58:41 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 998.1mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 2.9 2.9

Center Temp : -3.5C Cloud Region Temp : -34.8C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.50 ARC in MD GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.52 ARC in MD GRAY
at Lat: 22:19:11 N Lon: 88:34:11 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 40km
- Environmental MSLP : 1013mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 30.3 degrees
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting angiest:
Yay! Dr. Neil Frank is appearing on KHOU.

And I am guessing he lives in Fulshear, TX. No other reason I can think of why he would be out there (about 7 miles down the road from me).


I love Dr. Neil! I had property in Weston Lakes and got a chance to meet him. Nice man.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1158. angiest
Quoting TexasGulf:
Houston area NEEDS the rain. Lake Houston is so dry you can almost walk across it without getting your feet wet.

Just North of the FM1960 bridge (where the marinas are located and main boating area) you can now walk on dry land and grass, 1-foot above the lake level from the Eastern shore to the middle of the (previous) lake. If you didn't mind wading, you could walk across the rest of the lake, but would have to swim the old river channel. I saw several boats today tied up at their docks, but the dock pilings are out of the water and the boats were tied up and sitting on the lake bottom.

Houston could use a good 8"-10" of rain over 2-days.


Did you see the story the other day of the woman who lost her A&M class ring at Lake Somerville? She lost it a few years ago in what was then 5 feet of water. It was found on what is now beach.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1155. beell
Quoting sarahjola:
is there a new coc? why did the coc go back toward the yucatan? it was offshore earlier, and now its onshore? man this don is a tricky fellow. the coc had to have relocated. i don't recall seeing don take a dive to the south. following what the nhc had as its center before would suggest that the center either relocated or don is going southwest. can anyone make sense of this for me? tia


Don having a bit of trouble becoming a separate entity from the strong tropical wave circulation?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Houston area NEEDS the rain. Lake Houston is so dry you can almost walk across it without getting your feet wet.

Just North of the FM1960 bridge (where the marinas are located and main boating area) you can now walk on dry land and grass, 1-foot above the lake level from the Eastern shore to the middle of the (previous) lake. If you didn't mind wading, you could walk across the rest of the lake, but would have to swim the old river channel. I saw several boats today tied up at their docks, but the dock pilings are out of the water and the boats were tied up and sitting on the lake bottom.

Houston could use a good 8"-10" of rain over 2-days.
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1153. angiest
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
Oh guys I forgot to tell you that I am going to San Antonio tomorrow so if that path of Don holds it looks like will get lots of heavy rain from it.Man I am lucky.


Assuming Don doesn't come up to the Houston area, then I will be driving to SA Friday night. Should be a fun drive.
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


got those 6th sense things smackin me upside the head...but headache gone cuz the low is lifting out 2 days early...was at migraine level last night...now...pretty much gone...idk
A very good friend of mine will get a nosebleed if a tornado is imminent. When she first told me, I thought it was bunk. Then I saw it happen. You stick with your instincts, tiggeriffic.
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Well...

Updated Wikipedia: Check

Blogged on the blog : Check

Monitored Don: Check

Told people it wasn't weakening and should strengthen early early in the morning: Check


Well...I guess this means I am off. Night all, night Don.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
1148. angiest
Yay! Dr. Neil Frank is appearing on KHOU.

And I am guessing he lives in Fulshear, TX. No other reason I can think of why he would be out there (about 7 miles down the road from me).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanejer95:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 JUL 2011 Time : 014500 UTC
Lat : 22:36:19 N Lon : 87:47:19 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 998.2mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 2.9 2.3

Center Temp : -16.4C Cloud Region Temp : -42.0C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.29 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.36 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 22:23:59 N Lon: 87:22:47 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 40km
- Environmental MSLP : 1013mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 30.1 degrees





That's just going off the weakening convection. Listen to the National Hurricane Center, they say no decrease in intensity has taken place, just convection has waned a little. Expect more intensification early in the morning (pre-dawn). Between 5:00 AM EDT - 8:00 AM EDT is when Don should really begin to look good, with DMAX and whatnot.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
A little north of Port Mansfield would be great for Texas, especially if it is mostly a good rainmaker. There might be some flooding around Austin and San Antonio, but it is so dry now it would be worth it. 100-year-old live oaks are looking bad around Austin and west of there even the mesquites are suffering.

We probably wouldn't get much rain from that here around Brownsville, but so it goes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1145. Patrap
Quoting angiest:


Funny thing is I was reading the blog on my phone whilst having an adult beverage, and with everyone arguing over the imminent demise of Don I somehow got that up first. Some people on here are slacking. ;)


Naw,,its easier to just see it pop up here 12 seconds after it hits the NHC.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
5PM Position:

22.20N 87.00W

11PM Position:

22.8°N 88.1°W

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Quoting tiggeriffic:


this one is going to give the NHC a reason to try to reprogram their models...the front they said would be over the east coast till friday bringing rain started breaking up today...and to confirm it...i went outside and saw my spiders building thier webs again... 1st time since sat night...they NEVER build when it is going to rain...and now tonight...i have webs out there...telling me the high is doing funky things and could very well lift out ahead of schedule


I think the models are going to start shifting North tomorrow and Don will be strengthening at this time. I think the ridge moving to the east is going to make this happen. I have had several things happening like in 05. I just have that "gut" feeling at the last minute we are going to have to really be on top of things.
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ok...bouncin out...work in the am...errands after... hmmmm....i will say that there will be a MARKED improvement on Don by 5pm Thursday...
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3650
Quoting GHOSTY1:


Sounds like we got the same feeling except for i feel somewhere in between Rockport and Galveston, TX.

Rockport here-bring on the rain!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sarahjola:
is there a new coc? why did the coc go back toward the yucatan? it was offshore earlier, and now its onshore? man this don is a tricky fellow. the coc had to have relocated. i don't recall seeing don take a dive to the south. following what the nhc had as its center before would suggest that the center either relocated or don is going southwest. can anyone make sense of this for me? tia


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1138. GHOSTY1
Alright im heading out, thanks everyone for making my first wunderblog day awesome. Fight on Don, GHOSTY1 out!
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
1137. JLPR2
Quoting JRRP:


Deepening low, once this gets convection it should take off. :\
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Quoting Patrap:



Well I certainly hope not,, tigger.

Maybe try some Pepto-Bismol

And as Ferris Bueller's Dad said..


.."Wrap yer head in a Hot towel, and eat some chicken soup"..


: )


got those 6th sense things smackin me upside the head...but headache gone cuz the low is lifting out 2 days early...was at migraine level last night...now...pretty much gone...idk
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3650
1135. angiest
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
As angiest said, Tropical Storm Watches are up.


Funny thing is I was reading the blog on my phone whilst having an adult beverage, and with everyone arguing over the imminent demise of Don I somehow got that up first. Some people on here are slacking. ;)
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Quoting P451:
As of now it looks like Don is going to go.....right where it needs to most.






Both maps 0z


The good/bad thing is, the wave approaching the Caribbean will take almost the same path as Don, so it could end up giving relief to Texas ( a little far out).

Good: Waves will follow Don's path and may give relief to Texas.

Bad: As we head farther into the season, the chances of having a major hurricane take this path is increasing as well.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
is there a new coc? why did the coc go back toward the yucatan? it was offshore earlier, and now its onshore? man this don is a tricky fellow. the coc had to have relocated. i don't recall seeing don take a dive to the south. following what the nhc had as its center before would suggest that the center either relocated or don is going southwest. can anyone make sense of this for me? tia
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Local station in Houston FOX go figure, thinks the track will shift more to the north closer to Galveston in time.

Right now looks like it's sliding west and gonna be lucky if it makes to TX/MX border, but that's right now the way the thing looks on satellite, so don't take this as what I think it's actually gonna do.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 JUL 2011 Time : 014500 UTC
Lat : 22:36:19 N Lon : 87:47:19 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 998.2mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 2.9 2.3

Center Temp : -16.4C Cloud Region Temp : -42.0C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.29 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.36 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 22:23:59 N Lon: 87:22:47 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 40km
- Environmental MSLP : 1013mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 30.1 degrees



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JRRP:


I'd watch that wave...It has model support for development by the weekend.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Quoting weatherganny:


I second that!


this one is going to give the NHC a reason to try to reprogram their models...the front they said would be over the east coast till friday bringing rain started breaking up today...and to confirm it...i went outside and saw my spiders building thier webs again... 1st time since sat night...they NEVER build when it is going to rain...and now tonight...i have webs out there...telling me the high is doing funky things and could very well lift out ahead of schedule
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3650
Still dont think Don will take off like some believe it will. I could see Don staying ragged like this all the way to Texas and then gaining a little strength there. The cooler SST, TCHP, and land interaction will keep Don in check like this for the next 12-18hrs
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1126. Patrap
Quoting tiggeriffic:


still say that those watches will include LA by mid-day tomorrow...got that gut feeling Patrap...and this time...it is so strong i am almost naucious



Well I certainly hope not,, tigger.

Maybe try some Pepto-Bismol

And as Ferris Bueller's Dad said..


.."Wrap yer head in a Hot towel, and eat some chicken soup"..


: )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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