Tropical Storm Don forms in the Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:29 PM GMT on July 27, 2011

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Tropical Storm Don, the fourth tropical cyclone of the 2011 season, has formed in the Gulf of Mexico just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane Hunters began investigating the system earlier this afternoon and quickly found a closed surface circulation. As the mission continued to gather data from what was thought to be a tropical depression at the time, winds of around 39 mph were found, as well as a 1001 mb central pressure, bringing the system up to tropical storm strength.


Figure 1. Satellite loop of Tropical Storm Don. This loop will stay current.

The official forecast for Don agrees with what most of the models have been suggesting over the past 24 hours. Don will make its way toward the northwest over the next 48 hours before making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Galveston. The statistical models tend to suggest a more southerly track toward Brownsville, and the dynamical models are forecasting anything from Corpus Christi to Galveston. They all tend to agree landfall will occur late on the 29th (Friday night). Whether or not Don will reach hurricane status is still in question. The Hurricane Center's initial forecast is that Don will remain a tropical storm until landfall. Today some models were intensifying Don to a strong tropical storm, but none crossed the hurricane threshold. Now that we have data from aircraft reconnaissance, the models will be able to get a better handle on potential intensity. The runs that occur later tonight and early tomorrow will have much less uncertainty than those from today.


Figure 2. Model forecast tracks for Tropical Storm Don as of Wednesday afternoon.

I believe Jeff will be back tomorrow for an update.

Angela

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1226. GHOSTY1
Seastep, don't say such things, we need the rain here in Texas, be hopeful, nah im just kidding wherever its heading its gonna head. Although we need the rain so badly. Time for the overused cliche' "Hope for the best (Don hits Texas and gives needed rain) but prepare for the worst (Don hits Mexico or TX/LA border and leaves TX dry).
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
lil blotch north of Yucatan, it's towering


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KOTG, yea you see it
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1223. scott39
This is JMO.... Don will stay weak and be rain for LA. MS. Al.
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1222. Seastep
91L coming soon. Don, imo, will end up around the TX/LA border.

Link
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1221. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.W.
04L/TS/D/CX
MARK
22.95N/88.23W


convective refire detected
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54630
1220. Brillig
P.S. take a look at 30 degrees west. There's another round of circulation that's reminiscent of what Don was doing a week ago.
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Switching basins just for a second, in the Pacific tropical storm 11 will have to be watched closely.
(east of the Philippines)




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1218. GHOSTY1
Patrap your right with that video, Don will become a well oiled and organized machine like the United States Marine Corp. Ooooh Raaahh!! Semper Fi!!!
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
Thunderhead popping offshore away from center to the north, might be the beginning of the convection fire up later tonight, matter of time I assume

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1216. Brillig
I've been watching this thing since it left the coast of Africa. A coworker and I watched it for a while, then on the 22nd, I announced to a gardening group here in Austin that I thought this storm was headed our way. The next day, wunderground gave it an Invest 90 designation, which then disappeared again when it hit the Caribbean. Although forces were wrestling to break it up, I think its shear size, in terms of precipitable moisture, made it able to resist those forces. At one point it seemed to be comparable in size to the Gulf of Mexico and heading west.

It was no surprise when it gained its Invest 90 designation again after passing most of the Caribbean islands, and then finally a named storm. Model strength has been under and over hurricane strength, depending on the time of the model runs. With the amount of moisture and the warmth of the gulf, I think it's very likely for it to gain hurricane strength, although I haven't studied inland wind patterns lately.

The main thing is we here in Central Texas really need the rain, so we'll take whatever this storm will be kind enough to drop on us (and not send over us to drop on folks north who don't need it).

Lately, models have been revised northward, and I actually see moisture heading northward still of what the models are showing. I really do hope, though, that the models are pretty accurate so it heads our way.
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1215. GHOSTY1
It's always good to add a little bit of military jargin into stuff it adds to the experience.
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
1214. Patrap
USMC Silent Drill team

note they enter and exit the same way..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
Quoting Patrap:
..first to fight

for right and freedom,

and to Keep our Honor clean,

We are proud to claim the

title, of United States Marine
OOOH RAAAH
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1212. GHOSTY1
Quoting cloudburst2011:


isnt that the TIMEX


Is it, i knew it wasn't for the marines but i thought it fit anyway, but is that where the phrase came from?
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1211. Patrap
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Semper Fi


Oooh-rah,
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
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1209. Patrap
Don Vito looks ill

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
Quoting Patrap:
..first to fight

for right and freedom,

and to Keep our Honor clean,

We are proud to claim the

title, of United States Marine


Semper Fi
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1207. Patrap
..first to fight

for right and freedom,

and to Keep our Honor clean,

We are proud to claim the

title, of United States Marine
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
Quoting tristanh72:


The small lakes here northwest of houston are almost all gone as well. That's the problem, there's no part of the state that doesn't need a good tropical storm. Just hope wherever it ends up gets just rain with a little bit of wind, and not a lot of wind with some rain.
With the huge cracks, would be concerned that if we had any wind, dead trees and light poles would just blow over
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
The coc is Certainly in this location.

thanks! what is that about 22n 88w? tia
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 JUL 2011 Time : 024500 UTC
Lat : 22:46:36 N Lon : 88:03:34 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 998.1mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 2.8 2.8

Center Temp : -15.9C Cloud Region Temp : -28.9C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.46 ARC in MD GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 40km
- Environmental MSLP : 1013mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 30.4 degrees
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1202. GHOSTY1
Don is like a Marine he takes beating and keeps on kicking, he may not be the strongest marine though but he's still fighting. (If i offended marines in this comment i'm sorry no hurt intended)
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
Convection will refire overnight, that's pretty much a given, and if not, then this system has issues and it's much more complicated than I know of.
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Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Don has had two arms tied behind his back today, and he's hungry and tired, but there's food ahead, and the shear is expected to relax dramatically, also.





If Don gets to eat. So should I. Fish sticks anyone? No wait that would be inappropriate. Don is no Fish.
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1199. JLPR2
Little refire close to the COC.

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1198. GHOSTY1
Don has taken quite a beating his life so far but he won't go down and i don't forecast him to go down till he makes landfall when his objective has been accomplished and that objective is to save the texans by giving plenty of rain.
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
Quoting txraysfan:
The lakes here-Coleto and Texana are so low here too that they now have beaches! lol Am not even sure you can get boats into them now. The rain would be most welcome.


The small lakes here northwest of houston are almost all gone as well. That's the problem, there's no part of the state that doesn't need a good tropical storm. Just hope wherever it ends up gets just rain with a little bit of wind, and not a lot of wind with some rain.
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Quoting angiest:


A month ago, on the way to Rockport, we crossed the San Bernard River near East Bernard. It was bone dry.
Was out in my yard-we live in the country-have crevices you could break a leg in! Friend of ours said her concreted fence posts were leaning
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Don may grow, but it's not gonna be some large storm
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Quoting cloudburst2011:


yes but all the heavy convection is south of the coc...


Yes your correct, for now..
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1192. GHOSTY1
I just don't see how Don couldn't become a hurricane over the gulf, he has quite a alot of warm water to cross and the sheer is supposed to give way and the dry air move away, so all ideas of no or minor developement is just not in my mind tonight.
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
Quoting RitaEvac:
You can see the structure is becoming much better with spiral banding on west side and on the east side, once this pulls away from the Yucatan, it's off to the races...




Really off now however. Keep in mind your only looking at half a storm ATM.
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2011JUL28 031500 2.6 1004.0/ +0.0 / 37.0 2.5 2.4 2.2 0.1T/hour ON OFF -19.96 -24.02 CRVBND N/A 22.82 88.14 FCST

Weakening flag now on both Dvorak's
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Track is still questionable, should know once the G4 input is ingested into the models overnight, by tomm night we should know a lot better where this thing is going, should really know by tomm afternoon
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Don has had two arms tied behind his back today, and he's hungry and tired, but there's food ahead, and the shear is expected to relax dramatically, also.



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1187. GHOSTY1
I don't believe Don will be small, when he gets over the Gulf with no land interaction and if the sheer gives way i believe Don will explode into a larger system. (explode may be too dramatic but i expect moderate amounts to large amount of growth_
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
is the coc at 23n 87w or about that? tia
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Also the appearance and outflow is getting better and better regardless of the waning convection. The convection will come back no issue there, things are setting up for a strong tropical storm, but a small one I might add.


I am not so sure of the track that is up at the moment.
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You can see the structure is becoming much better with spiral banding on west side and on the east side, once this pulls away from the Yucatan, it's off to the races...

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1182. GHOSTY1
Who's left on the blog, everyones moving out and hitting the bunks for some shut eye. Who's left out here?
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 453
Quoting RitaEvac:
Also the appearance and outflow is getting better and better regardless of the waning convection. The convection will come back no issue there, things are setting up for a strong tropical storm, but a small one I might add.



I believe Don will grow in size before landfall.
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1180. beell
Tropical Storm Don Public Advisory

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DON ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
1000 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM
PORT MANSFIELD NORTHWARD TO WEST OF SAN LUIS PASS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT MANSFIELD NORTHWARD TO WEST OF SAN LUIS PASS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS...

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1179. angiest
Quoting RitaEvac:
Neil Frank said hurricane not out of the question, and if it were to come a cane, we don't have time to prepare.


He never questioned the forecast track, that I heard. Take it FWIW.
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1178. Patrap
....riding to, Amarillo, my Rifle, Pony and Me.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
1177. angiest
Quoting txraysfan:
The lakes here-Coleto and Texana are so low here too that they now have beaches! lol Am not even sure you can get boats into them now. The rain would be most welcome.


A month ago, on the way to Rockport, we crossed the San Bernard River near East Bernard. It was bone dry.
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Also the appearance and outflow is getting better and better regardless of the waning convection. The convection will come back no issue there, things are setting up for a strong tropical storm, but a small one I might add.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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