Drought continues; Yellowstone fires could become more frequent; 90L set to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:58 PM GMT on July 27, 2011

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Southern Drought Continues

Temperatures continue to soar into triple digits in the Southern Plains this week, and are expected to remain well above average for at least the next month. High air temperatures and low humidity (because of the low soil moisture) will continue to maintain drought conditions in the South unless we see some Gulf-landfalling tropical cyclones—a good remedy for a such an extreme drought.

This year's drought in the South is unprecedented by many definitions. Last year at this time, 0% of the contiguous U.S. was in exceptional drought. Last week, the exceptional drought region covered 11.96%. The area of contiguous U.S. in exceptional drought conditions has never been this high since the Drought Monitor record started in 2000. The highest it had been before June of this year was 7.85% in August of 2002.


Figure 1. Temperature anomaly (difference from average) in degrees Celsius for the period July 1 through July 25 (top) and soil moisture anomaly in millimeters (bottom) on July 25 (from the Climate Prediction Center).

In late June, the U.S. Department of Agriculture designated 213 counties in Texas (84% of the state) as primary natural disaster areas. As I mentioned yesterday, the Texas drought and wildfires are one of the nine billion-dollar disasters of 2011 so far. The National Climatic Data Center estimated that this event had cost up to $3 billion as of June 16. This number is surely rising every day that the South doesn't see rain.

New study concludes Yellowstone wildfires could become more frequent

In a study published this week by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, researchers have concluded that global warming could have a serious impact on the severity and frequency of wildfires in the Yellowstone region (an area where the states of Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming come together). Historically in this region, fewer than 5% of wildfire occurrences account for 95% of the total area burned. But in a global warming scenario, they found that fire activity could become more severe and more frequent, causing the ecosystem to change dramatically.

Using climate conditions and historical fire data from 1972 to 1999, it was possible to link certain environmental thresholds (temperature, humidity, etc) to past wildfire events. Then by employing the output of various climate models, fire frequency can be forecast well into the future. Figure 2 illustrates the result from one of the climate models they used in the study, and the upward trend of fire activity over the next 100 years. In 1988, a particularly hot and dry year, 36% of the park burned. The study uses this year as a baseline to compare future events.


Figure 2. Figure 2B from the manuscript. Observed burn area (blue line) median of predicted area burned (black dotted line), and ranges (light and dark orange) aggregated over the Yellowstone area defined by the study by Westerling et al. (Source).

What was once a low-probability event could become a high-probability event by mid-century. Fires that have only happened every 100 to 300 years in the past could now be occurring every 30 years in the future. The results of this research has implications for sub-alpine forests across the globe. Warming temperatures and decreasing humidity will lead to more wildfires, and will cost billions of dollars to fight them, if we choose to do so.

Invest 90L

90L has moved west overnight and looks ripe to develop today. While the upper level circulation (500 mb) is very much displaced, the lower level circulation looks strong and coherent through the system's mid-levels (850 and 700 mb). Thunderstorm activity continues to organize, and it appears that a surface circulation is developing. Moisture remains high in the system (around 4.5 g/kg specific humidity) and wind shear should be somewhat favorable as it crosses through the Gulf of Mexico. In terms of track, the statistical models have generally been favoring a Brownsville landfall scenario, but the dynamical models have been inching north over the past day or so. The HWRF is in line with the ECMWF deterministic today, with landfall near Corpus Christi.



The Hurricane Hunters have a mission scheduled for 18Z today (2pm EDT) to investigate whether or not 90L has a closed surface circulation. If it does, given the amount of organized convection and moderate wind speeds (around 34 mph in the latest invest update), the Hurricane Center will probably call this system at least Tropical Depression Four.

If 90L develops this afternoon, I will have another update to look at track and intensity forecasts.

Angela

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IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 48 HR
INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS WELL BEFORE LANDFALL...AND DON COULD GET
STRONGER THAN THIS BETWEEN 48-72 HR.

I think that's a 'we think it'll remain a TS for its whole life, but don't bet the house on it'.

Pretty sensible.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Thank you. TAZ is a troll and HE is one of the reasons I'm no longer a paid member.
Quoting cheaterwon:



You know I spend most of my time lurking and trying to learn, but you make it really hard. You constantly tell people not to post on topics other then weather and threaten them with a 24 hr. ban, and then 2 comments later you are like I will hit 103,000 post tonight and make random comments that have nothing to do with well nothing. You are the biggest troll on here and for some reason people have accepted you. For the rest of y'all you are awesome thanks for all that y'all add in helping a uneducated lurker like me. Back to lurking from The Woodlands, Texas y'all have a wonderful day.
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Quoting Ameister12:

I read the wind gust instead of the actual wind speed.


Ah, easy mistake.
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


No, they peak it at 65mph.



IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 48 HR
INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS WELL BEFORE LANDFALL...AND DON COULD GET
STRONGER THAN THIS BETWEEN 48-72 HR.
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Quoting Babsjohnson:
Remember, things always shift to the right with these models. Watch out Lake Charles....


How fitting would that be? They're proposing a national hurricane center museum be built in Lake Charles!

Hopefully Don won't get too strong before dumping much needed rain on Texas!
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The National Hurricane Center predicts a peak between 55 kt - 65 kt.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31588
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


No, they peak it at 65mph.

I read the wind gust instead of the actual wind speed.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4908
So we have Tropical Storm Don

Now let the games begin LOL

Taco :o)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


65 mph peak expected. What is with this???

Arlene = 65 mph

Bret = 60 mph

Cindy = 60 mph

Don = ???



lol come on now DON i want 150mph plzs
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Quoting Ameister12:
NHC has Don peaking out a 75mph. I think their forecast is a likely scenario.


No, they peak it at 65mph.
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Quoting cheaterwon:



You know I spend most of my time lurking and trying to learn, but you make it really hard. You constantly tell people not to post on topics other then weather and threaten them with a 24 hr. ban, and then 2 comments later you are like I will hit 103,000 post tonight and make random comments that have nothing to do with well nothing. You are the biggest troll on here and for some reason people have accepted you. For the rest of y'all you are awesome thanks for all that y'all add in helping a uneducated lurker like me. Back to lurking from The Woodlands, Texas y'all have a wonderful day.


Agree 100%.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nvm.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 48 HR
INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS WELL BEFORE LANDFALL...AND DON COULD GET
STRONGER THAN THIS BETWEEN 48-72 HR.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31588
1813. angiest
Quoting Ameister12:
NHC has Don peaking out a 75mph. I think their forecast is a likely scenario.


Where did you see that?
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Quoting cheaterwon:



You know I spend most of my time lurking and trying to learn, but you make it really hard. You constantly tell people not to post on topics other then weather and threaten them with a 24 hr. ban, and then 2 comments later you are like I will hit 103,000 post tonight and make random comments that have nothing to do with well nothing. You are the biggest troll on here and for some reason people have accepted you. For the rest of y'all you are awesome thanks for all that y'all add in helping a uneducated lurker like me. Back to lurking from The Woodlands, Texas y'all have a wonderful day.


You have a point... On the other hand... He's OK
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000
WTNT44 KNHC 272055
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
400 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FOUND A CLOSED
SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB. THE
MAXIMUM 1000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 45 KT EAST OF THE CENTER...
AND THERE WERE SEVERAL RELIABLE-LOOKING SMFR SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES
OF 35 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE SYSTEM IS DESIGNATED AS TROPICAL
STORM DON. THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS
ELONGATED...AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME REFORMATION OF THE CENTER COULD
OCCUR TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTIVE BURSTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/10. DON IS SOUTH OF
A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE STORM. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST
THAT WITHIN 24 HR DON WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT SHOULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER THE STORM GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD. WHILE
THE MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE ON WHERE DON WILL REACH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST. THE
GFDL AND GFS ARE FARTHEST TO THE RIGHT...CLOSER TO THE HOUSTON/
GALVESTON AREA. THE UKMET/ECMWF ARE FARTHEST TO THE LEFT...CLOSER
TO THE BROWNSVILLE AREA. THE FORECAST TRACK LIES BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES AND IS CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.

DON IS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE
GLOBAL MODELS FOR THE MOST PART FORECAST LIGHT TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT 72 HR. DESPITE
THIS...NONE OF THOSE MODELS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF
THE STORM...AND NEITHER DOES THE GFDL. THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND HWRF
MODELS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO REACH 55-65 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN
TEXAS...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 48 HR
INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS WELL BEFORE LANDFALL...AND DON COULD GET
STRONGER THAN THIS BETWEEN 48-72 HR.

WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
TEXAS COAST TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 22.2N 87.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 23.1N 88.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 24.5N 90.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 25.8N 92.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 27.1N 94.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 29.0N 99.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/1800Z 31.0N 103.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

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Quoting reedzone:
Again, I concur with the NHC, SLIM chance for a Hurricane at this time. Conditions are just not good for any rapid intensification.

This reminds me of Dolly.
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...TROPICAL STORM DON FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
4:00 PM CDT Wed Jul 27
Location: 22.2°N 87.0°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb
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NHC forecast cone up
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NHC has Don peaking out a 75mph. I think their forecast is a likely scenario.

Edit: I read the wind gust instead of the actual winds.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4908
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1805. DFWjc
Quoting cheaterwon:



You know I spend most of my time lurking and trying to learn, but you make it really hard. You constantly tell people not to post on topics other then weather and threaten them with a 24 hr. ban, and then 2 comments later you are like I will hit 103,000 post tonight and make random comments that have nothing to do with well nothing. You are the biggest troll on here and for some reason people have accepted you. For the rest of y'all you are awesome thanks for all that y'all add in helping a uneducated lurker like me. Back to lurking from The Woodlands, Texas y'all have a wonderful day.


love the woodlands!! miss it ever so...
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Quoting Patrap:


Don is a tiny little storm. Needs to be bigger and move slowly over Texas to be a drought buster!
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Quoting stoormfury:
lasyest sat pics showing vigorous cyclonic turning near 14N 56W. There are also low level clouds streming to the area. Is a COC trying to form in this area.



Could get busy really fast, these models are a joke right now.
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Quoting reedzone:
Again, I concur with the NHC, SLIM chance for a Hurricane at this time. Conditions are just not good for any rapid intensification.



The NHC takes it very close...65 mph.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31588
Hello Don.Now good-bye.
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65 mph peak expected. What is with this???

Arlene = 65 mph

Bret = 60 mph

Cindy = 60 mph

Don = ???
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31588
1798. Walshy
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



why not you leve me a alone i poofed him and i move on some of you guys jump on me for no reson what so evere



SO BACK OFF



You know I spend most of my time lurking and trying to learn, but you make it really hard. You constantly tell people not to post on topics other then weather and threaten them with a 24 hr. ban, and then 2 comments later you are like I will hit 103,000 post tonight and make random comments that have nothing to do with well nothing. You are the biggest troll on here and for some reason people have accepted you. For the rest of y'all you are awesome thanks for all that y'all add in helping a uneducated lurker like me. Back to lurking from The Woodlands, Texas y'all have a wonderful day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Again, I concur with the NHC, SLIM chance for a Hurricane at this time. Conditions are just not good for any rapid intensification.

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1794. A4Guy
it's up!
NHC site
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Quoting jmag2424:
Beaumont!


Beaumont Here too!
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Quoting sarahjola:
same here! i am going blind trying to see what the general movement is with don. i know a guy named don and he is as complicated as this storm. lol


Best way is a pen and a trackin map once they start issuing advisories. Or even now if you're sure where the center is at..
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000
WTNT34 KNHC 272053
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DON ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
400 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

...TROPICAL STORM DON FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 87.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM N OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 755 MI...1220 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DON.
WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
COAST TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST. DON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DON SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND
APPROACH THE COAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS IS
1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
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1787. WxLogic
000
WTNT24 KNHC 272052
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
2100 UTC WED JUL 27 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DON.
WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
TEXAS COAST TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 87.0W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 87.0W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 86.8W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.1N 88.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 24.5N 90.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 25.8N 92.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 27.1N 94.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 29.0N 99.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 35NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 31.0N 103.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 87.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Quoting JoltyJacob:



I know, right? This model has been an absolute disappointment, thus far, this season. Anyhow, thoughts on that little critter that it shows north of PR on this run? Also, is there a trough there? I hope not.



As far as my forecasting goes, I am 80% look out the window and 20% look at the models. I don't intend to be an MET, just a hobby. Just like the turntables and vinyl I still play, I like it old school. Models have been consistent in showing a storm there. High pressure has been the dominant force to date so there is a good possibility it will get close to land.
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1785. yoboi
Quoting tennisgirl08:


Agreed!!



agree
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1784. angiest
Quoting MeterologyStudent56:
Expect Tropical Storm Watches for the Texas Coastline.....

Its too Early to issue Warnings or Hurricane Watches.


If it is too early for watches then only by a few hours. The latest I would expect watches is 10PM CDT.
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1783. JLPR2
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
i do not like this!!


The CMC is the only model that keeps it as a tropical cyclone all the way to islands, the others drop it halfway. Gaston(2010) style. XD
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1781. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
1780. HCW
Quoting MeterologyStudent56:
Expect Tropical Storm Watches for the Texas Coastline.....

Its too Early to issue Warnings or Hurricane Watches.


Correct it's a shame that I missed the NHC Conf call this hour :(
Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1408
000
WTNT24 KNHC 272052
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
2100 UTC WED JUL 27 2011

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nop not too Early for a hurricane watch at all they will do the same with with the TS watch
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Quoting Babsjohnson:
Remember, things always shift to the right with these models. Watch out Lake Charles....


Agreed!!
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First advisory up.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.