A heat wave recap; generally quiet tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on July 25, 2011

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Last week's U.S. heat wave has finally subsided, and most of the Northeast will see some cool highs in the 70s today. Unfortunately, the Midwest, and mid-Atlantic will continue to see high temperatures in the 90s for the rest of this week, and the southern Plains will be forced to continue to endure triple-digits.

According to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), 2,100 daily high maximum temperature records have been set so far in July 2011, and 51% of those were set last week. 4,734 daily high minimum temperature records have been set so far this month, and 55% of those were set last week. Here's a breakdown of last week's records for the period July 18 through July 24:

High Maximum:

• 1,076 warmest maximum temperature for the date
• 90 warmest maximum temperature for the month of July
• 56 warmest maximum temperature of all time

High Minimum:

• 2,595 warmest minimum temperature for the date
• 207 warmest minimum temperature for the month of July
• 123 warmest minimum temperature of all time

The number of warm minimum temperatures is especially disturbing, as these tend to have more of an impact on health than the high maximums. When the temperature remains high at night, it prevents the body from being able to recover from the day's heat. According to NOAA, from July 1 through July 19, there were 22 heat-related deaths in the United States. Reuters is reporting that 34 deaths resulted from this heat wave. In an average year, heat remains the number one weather-related killer in this country. In some ways, the overnight low temperatures are the best way to quantify a heat wave, possibly even better than the heat index.


Figure 1. Map of daily high maximum temperature records for the period July 1 through July 25 from NCDC. Red circles without an X denote a broken record; red circles with an X denote a tied record.

Tropical Overview

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L is moving slowly west through the Caribbean near Jamaica. A new burst of convection started this morning, which will undoubtedly produce some heavy rain over southern Cuba and Jamaica. While low-level circulation has remained about the same since late last week, the wave has become top-heavy with increased circulation at higher levels (700-500mb). None of the models (GFS, ECMWF, CMC, NGPS, UKMET) are developing this wave as tracks into the Gulf of Mexico, and they're all in agreement that the path will be toward far southern Texas or northern Mexico, except for the ECMWF deterministic run, which hints that it will take a turn toward the northern Gulf. However, this model hasn't shown actual development from the wave since Tuesday or Wednesday of last week.

NHC has dropped this invest as of Saturday afternoon, but it remains on their radar. They're giving the wave a 0% chance to form over the next 48 hours. Given the recent uptick in mid-level circulation, I'd imagine they're still a little concerned about the potential for this wave to fire-up again once it's in the Gulf, and it will surely be of concern for Cuba as it tracks westward. However, given the lack of model support for almost 7 days in a row now, I'd say this wave has seen its glory come and go.


Figure 2. Visible tropical Atlantic satellite captured at 11:14am EDT on Monday.

Other North Atlantic waves

There are a couple other waves to speak of that have left the coast of Africa in the past few days, one located near 40W and the other closer to Africa, around 30W, which is tangled up in the monsoon trough. The former is expected to take a southerly track, skirting northern South America, and possibly into the Bay of Campeche. Given this track, none of the models are suggesting it will develop. However, tropical cyclones that spin up in the Bay of Campeche generally have a short forecast lead time, so it's something to watch. The latter wave could take a slightly more northern track through the Caribbean islands, and a couple of the models seem to favor this wave for development at the end of their runs.

Tropical wave activity has been lacking so far this season, but climatologically we should see an increase in African easterly waves in August and September.

Angela

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2306. muddertracker
9:14 PM GMT on September 03, 2011
Quoting muddertracker:


"not really" lol..good catch!



what the hell? I did NOT JUST POST THIS...What is going on? HELP ADMIN!!!! TAZ?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2350
2305. stormpetrol
1:10 AM GMT on August 17, 2011
If I get banned Im sorry but I just had to blast the troll!!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7932
2304. IceCoast
9:19 PM GMT on July 26, 2011
Quoting Ameister12:
90L looking better. Land is no longer doing it much harm.


Also, there could be a possible severe weather outbreak today.

Looked like there was another tornado warning for Springfield MA, but didn't really get to look at the velocitys. Out hiking and just keeping tabs on the storms on my phone
Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267
2303. hcubed
5:46 PM GMT on July 26, 2011
Quoting atmoaggie:
My turn for a poll.

Select the poll-related statement most reflective of reality in the blog:

A. Polls and responses are a complete waste of blog space and have no utility whatsoever.
B. Polls are for those that feel the need to reaffirm that they have any idea what they are talking about by posting and/or participating in a poll.
C. Polls and responses are a complete waste of blog space and have no utility whatsoever.
D. Polls in this blog, when responded to are a sub-sample of all of us, but only represent those of us that are willing to participate in a poll, thus any tallied results are rather meaningless.
E. Polls and responses are a complete waste of blog space and have no utility whatsoever.
F. All of the above.

(Sry, some sarc in there ;-) )


I'll say A, C and E for my choices.

And that's because it's you.

Normally, my answer to a poll is the "!" key...
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
2302. Ameister12
4:23 PM GMT on July 26, 2011
90L looking better. Land is no longer doing it much harm.


Also, there could be a possible severe weather outbreak today.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5026
2299. CosmicEvents
4:18 PM GMT on July 26, 2011
#2282...atmo.....this is the first poll that I've ever responded to, and probably the last. I'll go with F.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5612
2298. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:17 PM GMT on July 26, 2011
Quoting atmoaggie:
My turn for a poll.

Select the poll-related statement most reflective of reality in the blog:

A. Polls and responses are a complete waste of blog space and have no utility whatsoever.
B. Polls are for those that feel the need to reaffirm that they have any idea what they are talking about by posting and/or participating in a poll.
C. Polls and responses are a complete waste of blog space and have no utility whatsoever.
D. Polls in this blog, when responded to are a sub-sample of all of us, but only represent those of us that are willing to participate in a poll, thus any tallied results are rather meaningless.
E. Polls and responses are a complete waste of blog space and have no utility whatsoever.
F. All of the above.

(Sry, some sarc in there ;-) )


G. Polls and responses are an efficient way to see what other members think of the situation.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32281
2295. quakeman55
4:16 PM GMT on July 26, 2011
NEW BLOG (finally!)
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
2294. ProgressivePulse
4:16 PM GMT on July 26, 2011
Quoting mynameispaul:


Thanks, I was just curious if anyone else saw that. Just checked and the CMC shifted back towards Corpus area. I know these models jump around all the time. Was just curious if anyone had any thoughts on it. Thanks.


GFS did as well. This storm will be steered by high pressure and the orientation of. Looks to be that a pretty hefty shortwave develops in the central plains and erodes the western section of the continental high enough to change the orientation more to the NW instead of straight west. You can see 90L turn west in the GOM after being pulled Nward a bit by the weakness over FLA. Then as the Cent Plains trough passes by you can see 90L take on a more NW motion.

Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5450
2293. atmoaggie
4:15 PM GMT on July 26, 2011
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
A and C are the same
No $#!* ? Thanks!
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
2292. WeatherNerdPR
4:14 PM GMT on July 26, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Poll time.

Q: What will the NHC give Invest 90L at 2PM?

A. Near 0%
B. 10%
C. 20%
D. 30%
E. Higher


30%
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5690
2291. PcolaDan
4:14 PM GMT on July 26, 2011
Quoting atmoaggie:
My turn for a poll.

Select the poll-related statement most reflective of reality in the blog:

A. Polls and responses are a complete waste of blog space and have no utility whatsoever.
B. Polls are for those that feel the need to reaffirm that they have any idea what they are talking about by posting and/or participating in a poll.
C. Polls and responses are a complete waste of blog space and have no utility whatsoever.
D. Polls in this blog, when responded to are a sub-sample of all of us, but only represent those of us that are willing to participate in a poll, thus any tallied results are rather meaningless.
E. Polls and responses are a complete waste of blog space and have no utility whatsoever.
F. All of the above.

(Sry, some sarc in there ;-) )


Some? LOL
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
2288. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:13 PM GMT on July 26, 2011
Quoting chevycanes:

not true.

here is the steering map for <940 mbs. you can see a big break in the ridge and it would try to shot that gap and head towards FL.



We're not talking about a major hurricane though. We are talking about the difference between lets say a TS and a Category 1 hurricane.





Notice how the second one, which would be the steering for a weak hurricane, takes a more westerly (southerly) path than a TS would.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32281
2287. 7544
4:13 PM GMT on July 26, 2011
Quoting chevycanes:

not true.

here is the steering map for <940 mbs. you can see a big break in the ridge and it would try to shot that gap and head towards FL.



thats what i was thinking cant get too far north if it does go thru or close to the yucatan the high in the gulf could turn ne just asking thanks
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6858
2285. blsealevel
4:13 PM GMT on July 26, 2011
Quoting Patrap:
Updated: 4:05 am CDT on July 26, 2011
Flash Flood Watch in effect for New Orleans until 7 PM CDT this evening...


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
332 am CDT Tuesday Jul 26 2011


Discussion...
the main concern for this forecast package is the potential for
localized heavy rainfall again today and perhaps tomorrow and the
resulting flash flood threat. A middle level weak short wave trough
or weakness over the southeast Continental U.S. Will continue to plague the
Gulf Coast region for the next two or three days. This feature
..along with a tropical airmass in place across the region with
precipitable water values well in excess of two inches...will be
conducive for widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms with
locally heavy rainfall amounts. Some areas have seen several
inches of rain over the past week or so...in some cases over
ten inches...and additional rainfall on saturated or nearly
saturated ground could result in flooding issues. As a result...a
Flash Flood Watch will be issued for today for the entire forecast
with a general one to two inches of rain possible...although
localized rainfall amounts of three to four inches will certainly be
possible in a few areas. This watch may have to be extended or
reissued for Wednesday as the threat for localized heavy rainfall
amounts will likely continue. Rain chances will begin to decrease
at the end of the week and especially over the weekend as the
short wave trough weakens and ridging aloft builds over the Gulf
region and somewhat drier air works into the area. A tropical wave
over the northwest Caribbean is forecast to move west across the
Gulf during the week. At this time it appears that this feature
will stay south of the coast and have minimal impact on the
forecast area. 11



Well; guess it's time to break out the floaties
and the hipboots
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
2284. beell
4:12 PM GMT on July 26, 2011
Quoting Cantu5977:


Looking at the forecast steering charts this is not the case with 90L, the stronger she gets the more likely she bends west.


Ditto.




Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16733
2283. SCwannabe
4:12 PM GMT on July 26, 2011
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Note how the northern component on the right hand side is accelerating in the last few frames. The rotation we can see now, is about to double in size.

This is no longer a wave, but a skater that has landed on some of the warmest water in the entire Atlantic Basin.



I'm with U
Member Since: August 14, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 535
2282. atmoaggie
4:12 PM GMT on July 26, 2011
My turn for a poll.

Select the poll-related statement most reflective of reality in the blog:

A. Polls and responses are a complete waste of blog space and have no utility whatsoever.
B. Polls are for those that feel the need to reaffirm that they have any idea what they are talking about by posting and/or participating in a poll.
C. Polls and responses are a complete waste of blog space and have no utility whatsoever.
D. Polls in this blog, when responded to are a sub-sample of all of us, but only represent those of us that are willing to participate in a poll, thus any tallied results are rather meaningless.
E. Polls and responses are a complete waste of blog space and have no utility whatsoever.
F. All of the above.

(Sry, some sarc in there ;-) )
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
2281. jonelu
4:11 PM GMT on July 26, 2011
Quoting Squid28:
While I really don't want a cane, a nice soaker blob or minimal TS would be welcome at my place on the upper Texas coast. According to my personal weather station I am sitting at -25.85 inches of life giving H2O for the year at my place (Shoreacres, TX).


Its looking like there is a reasonably good chance you are going to get exactly what you need.
Member Since: October 31, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 884
2279. OracleDeAtlantis
4:10 PM GMT on July 26, 2011
Note how the northern component on the right hand side is accelerating in the last few frames. The rotation we can see now, is about to double in size.

This is no longer a wave, but a skater that has landed on some of the warmest water in the entire Atlantic Basin.

Member Since: August 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 525
2278. chevycanes
4:10 PM GMT on July 26, 2011
Quoting Cantu5977:


Looking at the forecast steering charts this is not the case with 90L, the stronger she gets the more likely she bends west.

not true.

here is the steering map for <940 mbs. you can see a big break in the ridge and it would try to shot that gap and head towards FL.

Member Since: August 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 693
2277. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:09 PM GMT on July 26, 2011
Quoting Cantu5977:


Looking at the forecast steering charts this is not the case with 90L, the stronger she gets the more likely she bends west.


What you said.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32281
2276. Patrap
4:09 PM GMT on July 26, 2011
Quoting jeffs713:
To all:

Instead of replying or quoting to the troll, please just provide him with the response of


Or maybe just the JFV post # will do,,one dosent have to quote idiocy,, as its just "quoting idiocy".

Thanx
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128685
2275. jeffs713
4:08 PM GMT on July 26, 2011
Quoting Patrap:
..I never Poll on a Tues as a rule

I never poll on days that end in Y.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5885
2273. Patrap
4:08 PM GMT on July 26, 2011
..I never Poll on a Tues as a rule
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128685
2272. jeffs713
4:07 PM GMT on July 26, 2011
To all:

Instead of replying or quoting to the troll, please just provide him with the response of
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5885
2270. quakeman55
4:07 PM GMT on July 26, 2011
Quoting ChupaCabra2011:


So does the rest of the Southeast.

Maybe so, but Texas is in a much worse state than other parts of the SE, which has seen at least some rain that has helped ease the drought there a bit. However, most of TX and much of OK and NM have not seen a drop in weeks.

US Drought Monitor, in case you haven't seen it.
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
2268. Patrap
4:06 PM GMT on July 26, 2011
2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve




2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

The same infrared imagery shown in the earth relative framework is displayed in a storm relative framework, with a 2km resolution and enhanced with the "BD Curve" which is useful for directly inferring intensity via the Dvorak Enhanced IR (EIR) technique. Scaling is provided by two lightly hatched circles around the center. The two circles have radii of 1 and 2 degrees latitude, respectively.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128685
2267. jeffs713
4:06 PM GMT on July 26, 2011
Quoting Cantu5977:


Looking at the forecast steering charts this is not the case with 90L, the stronger she gets the more likely she bends west.


Exactly. Not all storms are the same. Thats why CLIP and CLP5 aren't exactly the best models...
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5885
2264. Cantu5977
4:05 PM GMT on July 26, 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Stronger storm is more likely to feel a northern weakness, stronger systems have a more polar influence naturally. That's why we often see storms like Igor go out to sea and weak storms like Gaston head west.


Looking at the forecast steering charts this is not the case with 90L, the stronger she gets the more likely she bends west.
Member Since: May 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 89
2263. Patrap
4:05 PM GMT on July 26, 2011
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128685
2262. SCwannabe
4:05 PM GMT on July 26, 2011
Quoting quakeman55:

What day?


Tonight...IMO...LOL
Member Since: August 14, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 535
2261. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:04 PM GMT on July 26, 2011
Poll time.

Q: What will the NHC give Invest 90L at 2PM?

A. Near 0%
B. 10%
C. 20%
D. 30%
E. Higher

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32281
2260. muddertracker
4:04 PM GMT on July 26, 2011
Quoting PcolaDan:


First time poster (not really) who comes in and right away is sarcastically criticizing others. A well deserved.


"not really" lol..good catch!
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2350
2259. SCwannabe
4:04 PM GMT on July 26, 2011
Quoting PcolaDan:


First time poster (not really) who comes in and right away is sarcastically criticizing others. A well deserved.


Thankyou!
Member Since: August 14, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 535
2258. quakeman55
4:04 PM GMT on July 26, 2011
Quoting SCwannabe:
I say TS Don by 11pm....

What day?
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
2257. Patrap
4:04 PM GMT on July 26, 2011
Updated: 4:05 am CDT on July 26, 2011
Flash Flood Watch in effect for New Orleans until 7 PM CDT this evening...


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
332 am CDT Tuesday Jul 26 2011


Discussion...
the main concern for this forecast package is the potential for
localized heavy rainfall again today and perhaps tomorrow and the
resulting flash flood threat. A middle level weak short wave trough
or weakness over the southeast Continental U.S. Will continue to plague the
Gulf Coast region for the next two or three days. This feature
..along with a tropical airmass in place across the region with
precipitable water values well in excess of two inches...will be
conducive for widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms with
locally heavy rainfall amounts. Some areas have seen several
inches of rain over the past week or so...in some cases over
ten inches...and additional rainfall on saturated or nearly
saturated ground could result in flooding issues. As a result...a
Flash Flood Watch will be issued for today for the entire forecast
with a general one to two inches of rain possible...although
localized rainfall amounts of three to four inches will certainly be
possible in a few areas. This watch may have to be extended or
reissued for Wednesday as the threat for localized heavy rainfall
amounts will likely continue. Rain chances will begin to decrease
at the end of the week and especially over the weekend as the
short wave trough weakens and ridging aloft builds over the Gulf
region and somewhat drier air works into the area. A tropical wave
over the northwest Caribbean is forecast to move west across the
Gulf during the week. At this time it appears that this feature
will stay south of the coast and have minimal impact on the
forecast area. 11

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128685
2256. jeffs713
4:04 PM GMT on July 26, 2011
2241 & 2253:

You're sure a voice of expertise since you just joined yesterday. Have you noticed how bad of a drought TX is in?

Stop trolling, it is rather pointless.

As quakeman55 said, most of TX will take any and all rain we can get.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5885

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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