A heat wave recap; generally quiet tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on July 25, 2011

Share this Blog
6
+

Last week's U.S. heat wave has finally subsided, and most of the Northeast will see some cool highs in the 70s today. Unfortunately, the Midwest, and mid-Atlantic will continue to see high temperatures in the 90s for the rest of this week, and the southern Plains will be forced to continue to endure triple-digits.

According to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), 2,100 daily high maximum temperature records have been set so far in July 2011, and 51% of those were set last week. 4,734 daily high minimum temperature records have been set so far this month, and 55% of those were set last week. Here's a breakdown of last week's records for the period July 18 through July 24:

High Maximum:

• 1,076 warmest maximum temperature for the date
• 90 warmest maximum temperature for the month of July
• 56 warmest maximum temperature of all time

High Minimum:

• 2,595 warmest minimum temperature for the date
• 207 warmest minimum temperature for the month of July
• 123 warmest minimum temperature of all time

The number of warm minimum temperatures is especially disturbing, as these tend to have more of an impact on health than the high maximums. When the temperature remains high at night, it prevents the body from being able to recover from the day's heat. According to NOAA, from July 1 through July 19, there were 22 heat-related deaths in the United States. Reuters is reporting that 34 deaths resulted from this heat wave. In an average year, heat remains the number one weather-related killer in this country. In some ways, the overnight low temperatures are the best way to quantify a heat wave, possibly even better than the heat index.


Figure 1. Map of daily high maximum temperature records for the period July 1 through July 25 from NCDC. Red circles without an X denote a broken record; red circles with an X denote a tied record.

Tropical Overview

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L is moving slowly west through the Caribbean near Jamaica. A new burst of convection started this morning, which will undoubtedly produce some heavy rain over southern Cuba and Jamaica. While low-level circulation has remained about the same since late last week, the wave has become top-heavy with increased circulation at higher levels (700-500mb). None of the models (GFS, ECMWF, CMC, NGPS, UKMET) are developing this wave as tracks into the Gulf of Mexico, and they're all in agreement that the path will be toward far southern Texas or northern Mexico, except for the ECMWF deterministic run, which hints that it will take a turn toward the northern Gulf. However, this model hasn't shown actual development from the wave since Tuesday or Wednesday of last week.

NHC has dropped this invest as of Saturday afternoon, but it remains on their radar. They're giving the wave a 0% chance to form over the next 48 hours. Given the recent uptick in mid-level circulation, I'd imagine they're still a little concerned about the potential for this wave to fire-up again once it's in the Gulf, and it will surely be of concern for Cuba as it tracks westward. However, given the lack of model support for almost 7 days in a row now, I'd say this wave has seen its glory come and go.


Figure 2. Visible tropical Atlantic satellite captured at 11:14am EDT on Monday.

Other North Atlantic waves

There are a couple other waves to speak of that have left the coast of Africa in the past few days, one located near 40W and the other closer to Africa, around 30W, which is tangled up in the monsoon trough. The former is expected to take a southerly track, skirting northern South America, and possibly into the Bay of Campeche. Given this track, none of the models are suggesting it will develop. However, tropical cyclones that spin up in the Bay of Campeche generally have a short forecast lead time, so it's something to watch. The latter wave could take a slightly more northern track through the Caribbean islands, and a couple of the models seem to favor this wave for development at the end of their runs.

Tropical wave activity has been lacking so far this season, but climatologically we should see an increase in African easterly waves in August and September.

Angela

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2056 - 2006

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47Blog Index

Quoting Levi32:
It's true...I would melt. 75 degrees F at 15% humidity in the height of summer here is too much for me. Miami gets the same temp at 70% humidity in the middle of winter lol.


Except for that one day in Feb when it gets to 70. We have two seasons here: blazin' hot and a little toasty.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:


But then he'd have to move to Miami ... from Alaska. No thanks.

Boulder, now, that isn't such a bad place. Actually, it very much a great place.

for sure. beautiful country up in Boulder.

Has anyone seen updated model runs for steering of 90L? (ie: will the high move east enough at the right time to allow a weak-ish system to come ashore on the TX coast?)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chucktown:


I hope Levi doesn't "waste" his talents at TWC (not that I hate it, still a good source for weather to the general public), but he would be much more of an asset to the forecasting community working at NCAR in Boulder, CO or with his tropical knowledge, high up in the ranks at NHC.


I can see Levi ending up at the CPHC, first and then eventually transferred to the NHC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I wonder why a Floater is not on 90L yet? Dang!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
High-res Visible Loop of 90L


Looks like the upper level westerlies to the south and west of 90 are easing a bit.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:



You have a good point of it being so compact. It just needs a good Surface Spin to really get going. Still not there yet, but getting close! So you think a Hurricane is possible?
I think that entirely depends on when/where it pops, relative to landmasses.
(Assuming it pops at all...I *think* it will, but is certainly speculative.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2050. Patrap
www.nhc.noaa.gov
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
Closer to 70%, I think.

(Remember, not limited to 48 hours).

Also, given the nice, somewhat compact structure, when it pops, it is not going to need 36 hours to coalesce (unlike some of our more disorganized features with very broad structures).



You have a good point of it being so compact. It just needs a good Surface Spin to really get going. Still not there yet, but getting close! So you think a Hurricane is possible?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So has 90L been reinitialized.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2047. Levi32
It's true...I would melt. 75 degrees F at 15% humidity in the height of summer here is too much for me. Miami gets the same temp at 70% humidity in the middle of winter lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2046. Patrap
G' morn
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Man...some great links being posted this morning...time to build up the archives again...thanks Patrap, Levi, and others. Morning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chucktown:


I hope Levi doesn't "waste" his talents at TWC (not that I hate it, still a good source for weather to the general public), but he would be much more of an asset to the forecasting community working at NCAR in Boulder, CO or with his tropical knowledge, high up in the ranks at NHC.


No question.

But wait...Levi's tropical tidbit stories....ahhh. forget it. Too restricting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


So 3 out of 5....you give it 60% chance Atmo?
Closer to 70%, I think.

(Remember, not limited to 48 hours).

Also, given the nice, somewhat compact structure, when it pops, it is not going to need 36 hours to coalesce (unlike some of our more disorganized features with very broad structures).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2041. Patrap
wavcis.csi.lsu.edu

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2040. Levi32
Erratic wind directions at buoy 42056:


TIME
(CDT) WDIR WSPD
7:50 am ENE ( 61 deg ) 0.9 m/s
7:40 am NNE ( 19 deg ) 0.9 m/s
7:30 am NNW ( 341 deg ) 1.6 m/s
7:20 am NNW ( 330 deg ) 1.6 m/s
7:10 am NNW ( 327 deg ) 1.2 m/s
7:00 am N ( 356 deg ) 1.3 m/s
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Abacosurf:
TWC 2015....watch out!! Here comes Levi...

Agreed. Nice job sir.


I hope Levi doesn't "waste" his talents at TWC (not that I hate it, still a good source for weather to the general public), but he would be much more of an asset to the forecasting community working at NCAR in Boulder, CO or with his tropical knowledge, high up in the ranks at NHC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2038. Levi32
Quoting atmoaggie:
I'd say, on the blob-o-scale, this is a high cat 3 blob. (On a dreamed-up 5 category scale of blob-potential...not limited to 48 hours.)


Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/lo op_timestamp_640.asp?data_folder=rmtc/rmtcsasec4ir 404


Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/lo op_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_1


So 3 out of 5....you give it 60% chance Atmo?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Too early to say a Mexico landfall, things are in motion, and the players around the system are cooking up a recipe for which way this sucka goes
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
Quoting Levi32:
High-res Visible Loop of 90L



The loop does not show a very good Surface Spin yet! But, its getting there! Coming for sure!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'd say, on the blob-o-scale, this is a high cat 3 blob. (On a dreamed-up 5 category scale of blob-potential...not limited to 48 hours.)


Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/lo op_timestamp_640.asp?data_folder=rmtc/rmtcsasec4ir 404


Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/lo op_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_1
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2034. Levi32
High-res Visible Loop of 90L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
If this shifts to the north, South Florida might get some decent rain...


I'd love to see it happen, but I wonder how much of a stretch it is that 90L jumps north over Cuba... would be nice. My yard looks like dried hay.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2031. myway
Quoting whepton3:
If it stalls, we'll take it here in S. FL... some nice rain in the central areas last night... didn't get as much in E. Boca but south of here near Pompano got pounded pretty well after 8PM.


Sitting @ the Irishman looking south it was a pretty good light show.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chucktown:


Nice job today Levi, you definitely have a future as a met. A little technical times for a non-met, but thats what I fight every day on TV.
TWC 2015....watch out!! Here comes Levi...

Agreed. Nice job sir.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
Convection continues to build...That warm water is helping.


In 48hrs we might have a Tropical Depression. In 72hrs we will likely see a Tropical Storm!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2028. Patrap
CIMSS TC-Trak 90L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wonder how many people are still waiting for money on the Gulf Coast.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- BP reported $5.3 billion in second-quarter earnings Tuesday, marking a sharp turnaround from the staggering loss the oil company reported in the same period last year. The London-based multinational energy company lost $17.2 billion in the second quarter of 2010 due to costs stemming from the Gulf of Mexico oil disaster, the worst oil spill in U.S. history. That translates to a more than $22 billion turnaround year over year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2025. hydrus
Convection continues to build...That warm water is helping.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tropical Update with complete Graphics
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2022. Levi32
Quoting Chucktown:


Nice job today Levi, you definitely have a future as a met. A little technical times for a non-met, but thats what I fight every day on TV.


Thanks Chuck...I appreciate it coming from you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, July 26th, with Video


Nice job today Levi, you definitely have a future as a met. A little technical times for a non-met, but thats what I fight every day on TV.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2020. hydrus
Quoting whepton3:
If it stalls, we'll take it here in S. FL... some nice rain in the central areas last night... didn't get as much in E. Boca but south of here near Pompano got pounded pretty well after 8PM.
If this shifts to the north, South Florida might get some decent rain...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
To me the southern edge of the ridge has eroded along the gulf coast, I would expect a more NW movement of 90L
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
2018. Levi32
Quoting Minnemike:
my tropical cyclone knowledge is fairly minimal in comparison to some here, so what are the factors against 90L, that seem to convince the NHC to 'low ball' it? is it just model guidance? it looks to me like it has a real potential to become trouble, or maybe that's just flare ups from all the TCHP it's over... seems to be organizing, gaining vorticity, and perhaps stalling a little.


I mentioned the negative factors in my blog. They primarily have to do with the upper-level conditions around the storm. A broad, elongated upper-level trough draped across the southern Gulf of Mexico is partially shearing 90L, and subsidence/shearing from the big southern U.S. ridge is also going to be an issue.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:




2 other areas in blue i have circled to watch!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2015. kwgirl
Quoting FLdewey:

For some reason the opening of Super Troopers just popped into my head...

Mother of God...
Good morning all. Thanks a lot for that prompting of my internal juke box. Now I will be singing it all day. Luckily I have the cd here at work so if need be I can get my full intake of ABBA. Last night we had some pop up thunderstorms here in Key West. Nice little 10 minute rain shower and a great lightning show in the Gulf. At least it rained hard enough to give the plants a good drink. Maybe I can go another week without watering considering the increased chances of showers for today and tomorrow. I say 90L reaches TD today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
Appears stationary and better organized..


Surely not arguing that point, It does look a lot better. Just need to start up engine #1, engine #2 is cranking.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2013. Patrap
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
That persistent little spinning mini-blob south of LA... is it planning spin off east up into Centex?

It's been around a couple days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2011. Patrap


GOES-13 GOM IR animated Loop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, July 26th, with Video


Thanks as always Levi!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If it stalls, we'll take it here in S. FL... some nice rain in the central areas last night... didn't get as much in E. Boca but south of here near Pompano got pounded pretty well after 8PM.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2007. Patrap
GOES-12 Atmospheric Imagery

These images are primarily for use in tropical storm monitoring. There are several areas to choose from providing a large-scale view of the Atlantic, down to the Gulf of Mexico. During hurricane season, the hurricanes page provides a variety of GOES atmospheric products to help monitor the active storms.

* Hurricane Monitoring
* Animated GOES Imagery
* SRCC Compilation of Satellite Imagery
* Ocean and Atmospheric Products


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Fire weather... SE TX
a wild fire ignited yesterday in Brazoria County. Brazoria and
Wharton counties have kbdi values over 720 and kbdi values now
exceed 700 in 16 counties. The very warm temperatures and lack of
rain is again setting the stage for some critical fire weather
conditions. Winds are lighter which should help and relative humidity recovery
overnight has also been very good...but not as good as some
widespread rain
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628

Viewing: 2056 - 2006

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.