A heat wave recap; generally quiet tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on July 25, 2011

Share this Blog
6
+

Last week's U.S. heat wave has finally subsided, and most of the Northeast will see some cool highs in the 70s today. Unfortunately, the Midwest, and mid-Atlantic will continue to see high temperatures in the 90s for the rest of this week, and the southern Plains will be forced to continue to endure triple-digits.

According to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), 2,100 daily high maximum temperature records have been set so far in July 2011, and 51% of those were set last week. 4,734 daily high minimum temperature records have been set so far this month, and 55% of those were set last week. Here's a breakdown of last week's records for the period July 18 through July 24:

High Maximum:

• 1,076 warmest maximum temperature for the date
• 90 warmest maximum temperature for the month of July
• 56 warmest maximum temperature of all time

High Minimum:

• 2,595 warmest minimum temperature for the date
• 207 warmest minimum temperature for the month of July
• 123 warmest minimum temperature of all time

The number of warm minimum temperatures is especially disturbing, as these tend to have more of an impact on health than the high maximums. When the temperature remains high at night, it prevents the body from being able to recover from the day's heat. According to NOAA, from July 1 through July 19, there were 22 heat-related deaths in the United States. Reuters is reporting that 34 deaths resulted from this heat wave. In an average year, heat remains the number one weather-related killer in this country. In some ways, the overnight low temperatures are the best way to quantify a heat wave, possibly even better than the heat index.


Figure 1. Map of daily high maximum temperature records for the period July 1 through July 25 from NCDC. Red circles without an X denote a broken record; red circles with an X denote a tied record.

Tropical Overview

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L is moving slowly west through the Caribbean near Jamaica. A new burst of convection started this morning, which will undoubtedly produce some heavy rain over southern Cuba and Jamaica. While low-level circulation has remained about the same since late last week, the wave has become top-heavy with increased circulation at higher levels (700-500mb). None of the models (GFS, ECMWF, CMC, NGPS, UKMET) are developing this wave as tracks into the Gulf of Mexico, and they're all in agreement that the path will be toward far southern Texas or northern Mexico, except for the ECMWF deterministic run, which hints that it will take a turn toward the northern Gulf. However, this model hasn't shown actual development from the wave since Tuesday or Wednesday of last week.

NHC has dropped this invest as of Saturday afternoon, but it remains on their radar. They're giving the wave a 0% chance to form over the next 48 hours. Given the recent uptick in mid-level circulation, I'd imagine they're still a little concerned about the potential for this wave to fire-up again once it's in the Gulf, and it will surely be of concern for Cuba as it tracks westward. However, given the lack of model support for almost 7 days in a row now, I'd say this wave has seen its glory come and go.


Figure 2. Visible tropical Atlantic satellite captured at 11:14am EDT on Monday.

Other North Atlantic waves

There are a couple other waves to speak of that have left the coast of Africa in the past few days, one located near 40W and the other closer to Africa, around 30W, which is tangled up in the monsoon trough. The former is expected to take a southerly track, skirting northern South America, and possibly into the Bay of Campeche. Given this track, none of the models are suggesting it will develop. However, tropical cyclones that spin up in the Bay of Campeche generally have a short forecast lead time, so it's something to watch. The latter wave could take a slightly more northern track through the Caribbean islands, and a couple of the models seem to favor this wave for development at the end of their runs.

Tropical wave activity has been lacking so far this season, but climatologically we should see an increase in African easterly waves in August and September.

Angela

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 106 - 56

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47Blog Index

Quoting AtHomeInTX:


From the post I linked earlier about Audrey...Link

The remarkable mass exodus of thousands of crawfish from the marshes surrounding Cameron that night apparently did not concern the old timers, who figured they had more sense than crawdads. But the crawdads could apparently sense what the old timers could not--sea surface temperatures were a full 2-3 degrees Fahrenheit above average in the Gulf of Mexico, with a large upper level anticyclone bringing near-zero wind shear over Audrey. This perfect recipe for rapid intensification meant that Audrey was not going to be a mere Category 2 hurricane at landfall. An additional ingredient unfavorable for intensification--the approach of a trough of low pressure with increased wind shear--would not occur in time to weaken the storm. However, the approaching trough did bring an increase in steering current winds at mid- and high levels of the atmosphere, which doubled the forward speed of Audrey overnight.

Animals may be onto something. Lol.


Come to think of it i do remember a crawfish migration a few years back never really thought anything of it other then grabing a bucket and some crab boil sesoning :) sad story with Audrey in that area by the way
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting muddertracker:
I read the TWO...but I continue to ask myself...What would Cangialosi do?


i say just wait and see if Jim Cantorie shows up anywhere roflmbo
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just remember models sucked at the first two 2 storms and I expect them to suck for the 3rd storm, as it develops regardless of model output and experts
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I read the TWO...but I continue to ask myself...What would Cangialosi do?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2348
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Well well well, look what model develops ex-90L now.
12z NOGAPS.

Not much, but its a start.
Link


At least South Texas would get some rain. With another blob? in its wake.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Reduction in shear over the next three days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Well well well, look what model develops ex-90L now.
12z NOGAPS.

Not much, but its a start.
Link


wouldn't open for me....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:


I'm still on the lookout for Karen. Who's with me!



Lol....................
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well well well, look what model develops ex-90L now.
12z NOGAPS.

Not much, but its a start.
Link
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24021
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:


They're lining up!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
No love for ex-90l...sometimes an ex comes back to haunt you...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2348
86. JRRP
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Nailed it.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...AND OVER JAMAICA. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY...ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT
. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Athome...didn't see your earlier post...thanks...tho i am not native to SC i have lived all over the USA while traveling with the Navy...i learned at a young age to watch the animals and the trees to see what the weather would bring...the old adage of red skies at night really does hold true as well as animals sensing impending weather before we can see it in the sky
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Why waste the yellow marker on near 0%, i guess the key word though is "near"
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7862
Quoting RitaEvac:
Taz, it's just a bold prediction, so to advance the forecast lead-time for forecasters to not discontinue developing situations


ok but still try too be nic lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks Angela for holding the Fort down in Dr. M's absence; interesting choice of words (I'd say this wave has seen its glory come and go)............There is a substantial contingent on the Blog which won't give up on a wave, no matter what the models say, until it "really" breaks up over the American Continent somewhere...Even then, a few look for re-formation of the remnants on the Pacific side (or whatever is the next large body of water that the remnants flow towards) or as a land cane over the US......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Nailed it.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...AND OVER JAMAICA. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY...ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


yep...nailed it...but the most important words used in this statement "CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUSIVE....." this takes out the possibility of computer/human error...everything is a stab in the dark at the vampires heart with a wooden stake at this point....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tiggeriffic:


meaning old by PRECOMPUTERS lol...realize models can tell us a plethera of information...but models cant predict what the animals/bugs are feeling from instinct...as far as the ants...soil to dry to build towers lol...but they are going crazy over the last 4-6 days...have had to go old school on them as well, 50/50 borax and sugar...only thing killing them...have had to put borax all the way around the house as well to try to keep them at bay from coming indoors...


From the post I linked earlier about Audrey...Link

The remarkable mass exodus of thousands of crawfish from the marshes surrounding Cameron that night apparently did not concern the old timers, who figured they had more sense than crawdads. But the crawdads could apparently sense what the old timers could not--sea surface temperatures were a full 2-3 degrees Fahrenheit above average in the Gulf of Mexico, with a large upper level anticyclone bringing near-zero wind shear over Audrey. This perfect recipe for rapid intensification meant that Audrey was not going to be a mere Category 2 hurricane at landfall. An additional ingredient unfavorable for intensification--the approach of a trough of low pressure with increased wind shear--would not occur in time to weaken the storm. However, the approaching trough did bring an increase in steering current winds at mid- and high levels of the atmosphere, which doubled the forward speed of Audrey overnight.

Animals may be onto something. Lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
STAYBE SAFE!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Statement as of 1:38 PM EDT on July 25, 2011

... A significant weather advisory has been issued for eastern
Pinellas County for a strong thunderstorm with strong wind gusts
valid until 215 PM EDT...

At 137 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicates a
strong thunderstorm located near feather sound... or near Pinellas
Park... moving southeast at 20 mph will affect rural eastern Pinellas
County and rural southeastern Pinellas County.

This includes Interstate 275 between exits 24 and 31.

Gusty winds of 45 to 55 mph can be expected which can cause unsecured
objects to blow around... snap tree limbs and cause power outages.
Frequent to continuous lightning is expected. To be safe go indoors
immediately. If caught outside... find a low spot... and stay away from
tall objects. Torrential rains will reduce visibility to near zero
and will cause ponding of water on roadways.

Report damage to the nearest law enforcement agency or to your County
emergency management office.


Lat... Lon 2792 8267 2792 8265 2789 8261 2790 8257
2789 8255 2787 8257 2786 8259 2779 8260
2778 8262 2773 8261 2773 8263 2788 8270
time... Mot... loc 1738z 325deg 19kt 2787 8262

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Taz, it's just a bold prediction, so to advance the forecast lead-time for forecasters to not discontinue developing situations
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nailed it.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...AND OVER JAMAICA. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY...ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24021
Quoting tiggeriffic:


meaning old by PRECOMPUTERS lol...realize models can tell us a plethera of information...but models cant predict what the animals/bugs are feeling from instinct...as far as the ants...soil to dry to build towers lol...but they are going crazy over the last 4-6 days...have had to go old school on them as well, 50/50 borax and sugar...only thing killing them...have had to put borax all the way around the house as well to try to keep them at bay from coming indoors...


I have found success with diatomaceous earth, or fossil flour. It works great on anything with an exoskeleton. The only drawback is it must be reapplied after any good rain. My apologies if this is off topic.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Angela is SWEET..... BE NICE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
Hey Angela, get ready for some crow


unfortunately the forecasters have to post what the MODELS are predicting...their gut instincts have nothing to do with this site...if they posted gut instincts the ramifications could be quite costly and the blog would be shut down...just saying....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
No change.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...AND OVER JAMAICA. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY...ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
Hey Angela, get ready for some crow



thats not nic
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting blsealevel:


Not that old, by the way how's the ants have they been building towers yet:)


meaning old by PRECOMPUTERS lol...realize models can tell us a plethera of information...but models cant predict what the animals/bugs are feeling from instinct...as far as the ants...soil to dry to build towers lol...but they are going crazy over the last 4-6 days...have had to go old school on them as well, 50/50 borax and sugar...only thing killing them...have had to put borax all the way around the house as well to try to keep them at bay from coming indoors...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting blsealevel:


Not that old, by the way how's the ants have they been building towers yet:)

Isn't there a link between sea turtle activity and tc development? I think it's peer reviewed :)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2348
No Love at all for our little wave. :(

It looks west bound in the GOM which would be good if it drags rain with it!

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1230 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011 Link

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
1018 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 28N85W. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT
DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF CURRENTLY. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...EASTERN CUBA
AND JAMAICA WILL PUSH INTO THE SE AND S CENTRAL GULF TUE AND
WED. WINDS WILL VEER MORE SE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE WAVE
MIGRATES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AND DAMPENS OUT. HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD OVER THE WESTERN ATLC IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THU
INTO FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRES GRADIENT TO
TIGHTEN...RESULTING IN EASTERLY WINDS TO 20 KT OVER THE SE GULF
AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY FRI.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tiggeriffic:
personally taking an old school/old timer approach to this season...watching critters and bugs and the leaves on the trees


Not that old, by the way how's the ants have they been building towers yet:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From the previous blog.

2407. ProgressivePulse 5:21 PM GMT on July 25, 2011

Quoting FLdewey:

LOL... we actually could use a disaster, if for no other reason, to deplete the marketing budgets of insurance companies. The GEICO commercials are fine, farmers is pushing it. The state farm commercials need to be buried.

Now Dairy Queen get's 10 points for a random Olympic joke.



Maybe a missed point, my apologies.

That was State Farms GFS based rate watch hurricane model, it automatically sends out rate increases based on the threat level. They claim the, "Big 886er" as they call it, is one of the more accurate in the industry. They are also working on the "SuperB2160" that will be used in quarterly flood zone reviews.
Action: Quote | Modify Comment
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 1636

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Blog question: What happened to the feature where you can adjust the size of the pic you are posting?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2348
Thanks for the update Angela, very good post.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well I'm very happy about the rain we're getting from the wave know as 90L, much needed!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7862
Quoting stormpetrol:
90L has slowed almost to crawl compared to even yesterday, more time to fester!


And we all know how ugly that can get...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2348
Quoting Tazmanian:



you mean 2007 lol
Ok. You are correct.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 106 - 56

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
74 °F
Partly Cloudy