A heat wave recap; generally quiet tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on July 25, 2011

Share this Blog
6
+

Last week's U.S. heat wave has finally subsided, and most of the Northeast will see some cool highs in the 70s today. Unfortunately, the Midwest, and mid-Atlantic will continue to see high temperatures in the 90s for the rest of this week, and the southern Plains will be forced to continue to endure triple-digits.

According to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), 2,100 daily high maximum temperature records have been set so far in July 2011, and 51% of those were set last week. 4,734 daily high minimum temperature records have been set so far this month, and 55% of those were set last week. Here's a breakdown of last week's records for the period July 18 through July 24:

High Maximum:

• 1,076 warmest maximum temperature for the date
• 90 warmest maximum temperature for the month of July
• 56 warmest maximum temperature of all time

High Minimum:

• 2,595 warmest minimum temperature for the date
• 207 warmest minimum temperature for the month of July
• 123 warmest minimum temperature of all time

The number of warm minimum temperatures is especially disturbing, as these tend to have more of an impact on health than the high maximums. When the temperature remains high at night, it prevents the body from being able to recover from the day's heat. According to NOAA, from July 1 through July 19, there were 22 heat-related deaths in the United States. Reuters is reporting that 34 deaths resulted from this heat wave. In an average year, heat remains the number one weather-related killer in this country. In some ways, the overnight low temperatures are the best way to quantify a heat wave, possibly even better than the heat index.


Figure 1. Map of daily high maximum temperature records for the period July 1 through July 25 from NCDC. Red circles without an X denote a broken record; red circles with an X denote a tied record.

Tropical Overview

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L is moving slowly west through the Caribbean near Jamaica. A new burst of convection started this morning, which will undoubtedly produce some heavy rain over southern Cuba and Jamaica. While low-level circulation has remained about the same since late last week, the wave has become top-heavy with increased circulation at higher levels (700-500mb). None of the models (GFS, ECMWF, CMC, NGPS, UKMET) are developing this wave as tracks into the Gulf of Mexico, and they're all in agreement that the path will be toward far southern Texas or northern Mexico, except for the ECMWF deterministic run, which hints that it will take a turn toward the northern Gulf. However, this model hasn't shown actual development from the wave since Tuesday or Wednesday of last week.

NHC has dropped this invest as of Saturday afternoon, but it remains on their radar. They're giving the wave a 0% chance to form over the next 48 hours. Given the recent uptick in mid-level circulation, I'd imagine they're still a little concerned about the potential for this wave to fire-up again once it's in the Gulf, and it will surely be of concern for Cuba as it tracks westward. However, given the lack of model support for almost 7 days in a row now, I'd say this wave has seen its glory come and go.


Figure 2. Visible tropical Atlantic satellite captured at 11:14am EDT on Monday.

Other North Atlantic waves

There are a couple other waves to speak of that have left the coast of Africa in the past few days, one located near 40W and the other closer to Africa, around 30W, which is tangled up in the monsoon trough. The former is expected to take a southerly track, skirting northern South America, and possibly into the Bay of Campeche. Given this track, none of the models are suggesting it will develop. However, tropical cyclones that spin up in the Bay of Campeche generally have a short forecast lead time, so it's something to watch. The latter wave could take a slightly more northern track through the Caribbean islands, and a couple of the models seem to favor this wave for development at the end of their runs.

Tropical wave activity has been lacking so far this season, but climatologically we should see an increase in African easterly waves in August and September.

Angela

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 156 - 106

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47Blog Index

Quoting P451:


Change your filter to SHOW ALL posts. Don't rely on the blog to do it for you. Personally, I like to decide what I will and wont read on here.



Scroll to the top comment of the page and on the upper right you'll see the filter drop down menu.

Ok thank you very much.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Not for the folks that continue to sit around the computer relentlessly wishing hoping and praying for catastrophic extreme weather events they can use to bolster their AGW arguments and personal agendas. For those folks, it is rather bland. For others, slow tropics means more time to spend in the FL sun. And that's good enough for me.

Of course, nobody really sits around the computer "relentlessly wishing hoping and praying for catastrophic extreme weather events" to happen; one needs to just read the news, and--voila--there they appear!

Speaking of: those are some pretty remarkable high temperature records, aren't they? And just think: such heat waves will become a once- or twice-a year event in only a couple of decades. Comforting, no?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Sorry... just a question...



thats ok but still not geting in too that lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
lol less then 100 commets too go befor i hit 103,000 coomets
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sorry... just a question...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting neutralenso:
Just curious if the ridge doesnt weaken and stays the same would 90 L move into northern mexico or southern texas?


I also have a question about the ridge. This was part or the Lake Charles (TX/LA border area) discussion this morning. Would this shear axis/weakness have any influence on steering the wave farther north? Or is it different?

BY THURSDAY THE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO LIE MORE E-W OVER THE
SERN 1/4 OF THE COUNTRY WHILE A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PUSH WWD
ALONG THE COAST AROUND THE RIDGE. POPS WERE NUDGED DOWNWARD FOR
THURSDAY AS THE AREA WILL LIE WITHIN THE SUBSIDENT REGION NEAR THE
WAVE. BUT BY FRIDAY A SHEAR AXIS IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA
ONCE AGAIN. THIS SHEAR AXIS/WEAKNESS WILL LINGER THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...KEEPING AT LEAST SMALL POPS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nigel20:
I said before it was hidden so i wasn't seeing the TCHP map.


i no i understan
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



thats ok lol




i no we all post the same maps overe and overe evere day but am this trying too get him too look at the commets 1st be for posting the same thing overe i can under staned if we where 5 page a head of the last map of the same thing posted but if where olny this a coulp of commets a head this need too larn too look at the commets 1st be for posting the same maps
I said before it was hidden so i wasn't seeing the TCHP map.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Back later.



ok have fun
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Taz this is a serious question, how come your blogs are completely perfect in grammar yet your posts are not?



NO COMMETS NOT GETING IN TOO THAT MOVEING ON!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Back later.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


They display the GFS wind shear forecast, which obviously will not always be right - no wind shear forecast ever is.



ok
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
140. xcool
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



thats ok lol




i no we all post the same maps overe and overe evere day but am this trying too get him too look at the commets 1st be for posting the same thing overe i can under staned if we where 5 page a head of the last map of the same thing posted but if where olny this a coulp of commets a head this need too larn too look at the commets 1st be for posting the same maps


Taz this is a serious question, how come your blogs are completely perfect in grammar yet your posts are not?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:
121 ...

Stuck with it. Company system ... Standard Desktop Config means IE for me.


Makes sense. I hope you don't have IE on the home system though...lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:
121 ...

Stuck with it. Company system ... Standard Desktop Config means IE for me.


i no there is a way a round that down lode firfox then re move it be for yo go home for the night then no one nos that you been uesing it
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nigel20:
Sorry i didn't see it, it was hidden


Don't apologize to him hes not the boss of the blog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:






there not all ways right but i guss your right there find has well not the best in the word but there ok too ues


They display the GFS wind shear forecast, which obviously will not always be right - no wind shear forecast ever is.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nigel20:
Sorry i didn't see it, it was hidden



thats ok lol




i no we all post the same maps overe and overe evere day but am this trying too get him too look at the commets 1st be for posting the same thing overe i can under staned if we where 5 page a head of the last map of the same thing posted but if where olny this a coulp of commets a head this need too larn too look at the commets 1st be for posting the same maps
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
bouncing out for a bit...things to do b4 its time to make dinner...yay me...still say watching the critters is what works with early prediction... ck those in S. FL and see what the bugs and critters are doing...if they are feeding abnormally high...that storm is gonna do a redo...but we will see...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:
Sorry PRWeathercenter ... had to ignore because your video caused Blog Bloat.
sorry about, i adjusted the comment.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Those maps are perfectly fine.






there not all ways right but i guss your right there find has well not the best in the word but there ok too ues
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



plzs look at commet 105 be for posting the same maps
Sorry i didn't see it, it was hidden
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



WU wind shear maps are not the best too ues




Those maps are perfectly fine.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Again, just don't use Wunderground with internet explorer. It's a pathetic excuse for a web browser anyway.



firefox is the king
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:
20N, 78W ... or so.


Looks that way to me too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:
Sorry PRWeathercenter ... had to ignore because your video caused Blog Bloat.


Again, just don't use Wunderground with internet explorer. It's a pathetic excuse for a web browser anyway.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



WU wind shear maps are not the best too ues


ok thanks for the info
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IceCoast:


It's better than just the usual "No reliable models predict TC formation the next 7 days." It's nice to see a real met to go out on a limb and give their long range forecast.


Very much agreed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nam 84hrs
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nigel20:



plzs look at commet 105 be for posting the same maps
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nigel20:
Reduction in shear over the next three days.



WU wind shear maps are not the best too ues


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Not for the folks that continue to sit around the computer relentlessly wishing hoping and praying for catastrophic extreme weather events they can use to bolster their AGW arguments and personal agendas. For those folks, it is rather bland. For others, slow tropics means more time to spend in the FL sun. And that's good enough for me.


We have had enough Fl sun for awhile! All the lakes and ponds (expect for the golf course...) are all dry or almost all dry!

We could use a couple of tropical storms in a row. (not hurricanes!)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IceCoast:


It's better than just the usual "No reliable models predict TC formation the next 7 days." It's nice to see a real met to go out on a limb and give their long range forecast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting alfabob:
If this is about to go through the largest pockets of TCHP, and then through the center of the gulf; how does it have a low chance of developing? I'd give it a 30% still.


Ahhh, just relying on models as usual that's why
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9686
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


From the post I linked earlier about Audrey...Link

The remarkable mass exodus of thousands of crawfish from the marshes surrounding Cameron that night apparently did not concern the old timers, who figured they had more sense than crawdads. But the crawdads could apparently sense what the old timers could not--sea surface temperatures were a full 2-3 degrees Fahrenheit above average in the Gulf of Mexico, with a large upper level anticyclone bringing near-zero wind shear over Audrey. This perfect recipe for rapid intensification meant that Audrey was not going to be a mere Category 2 hurricane at landfall. An additional ingredient unfavorable for intensification--the approach of a trough of low pressure with increased wind shear--would not occur in time to weaken the storm. However, the approaching trough did bring an increase in steering current winds at mid- and high levels of the atmosphere, which doubled the forward speed of Audrey overnight.

Animals may be onto something. Lol.


Come to think of it i do remember a crawfish migration a few years back never really thought anything of it other then grabing a bucket and some crab boil sesoning :) sad story with Audrey in that area by the way
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 156 - 106

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
38 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron