A heat wave recap; generally quiet tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on July 25, 2011

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Last week's U.S. heat wave has finally subsided, and most of the Northeast will see some cool highs in the 70s today. Unfortunately, the Midwest, and mid-Atlantic will continue to see high temperatures in the 90s for the rest of this week, and the southern Plains will be forced to continue to endure triple-digits.

According to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), 2,100 daily high maximum temperature records have been set so far in July 2011, and 51% of those were set last week. 4,734 daily high minimum temperature records have been set so far this month, and 55% of those were set last week. Here's a breakdown of last week's records for the period July 18 through July 24:

High Maximum:

• 1,076 warmest maximum temperature for the date
• 90 warmest maximum temperature for the month of July
• 56 warmest maximum temperature of all time

High Minimum:

• 2,595 warmest minimum temperature for the date
• 207 warmest minimum temperature for the month of July
• 123 warmest minimum temperature of all time

The number of warm minimum temperatures is especially disturbing, as these tend to have more of an impact on health than the high maximums. When the temperature remains high at night, it prevents the body from being able to recover from the day's heat. According to NOAA, from July 1 through July 19, there were 22 heat-related deaths in the United States. Reuters is reporting that 34 deaths resulted from this heat wave. In an average year, heat remains the number one weather-related killer in this country. In some ways, the overnight low temperatures are the best way to quantify a heat wave, possibly even better than the heat index.


Figure 1. Map of daily high maximum temperature records for the period July 1 through July 25 from NCDC. Red circles without an X denote a broken record; red circles with an X denote a tied record.

Tropical Overview

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L is moving slowly west through the Caribbean near Jamaica. A new burst of convection started this morning, which will undoubtedly produce some heavy rain over southern Cuba and Jamaica. While low-level circulation has remained about the same since late last week, the wave has become top-heavy with increased circulation at higher levels (700-500mb). None of the models (GFS, ECMWF, CMC, NGPS, UKMET) are developing this wave as tracks into the Gulf of Mexico, and they're all in agreement that the path will be toward far southern Texas or northern Mexico, except for the ECMWF deterministic run, which hints that it will take a turn toward the northern Gulf. However, this model hasn't shown actual development from the wave since Tuesday or Wednesday of last week.

NHC has dropped this invest as of Saturday afternoon, but it remains on their radar. They're giving the wave a 0% chance to form over the next 48 hours. Given the recent uptick in mid-level circulation, I'd imagine they're still a little concerned about the potential for this wave to fire-up again once it's in the Gulf, and it will surely be of concern for Cuba as it tracks westward. However, given the lack of model support for almost 7 days in a row now, I'd say this wave has seen its glory come and go.


Figure 2. Visible tropical Atlantic satellite captured at 11:14am EDT on Monday.

Other North Atlantic waves

There are a couple other waves to speak of that have left the coast of Africa in the past few days, one located near 40W and the other closer to Africa, around 30W, which is tangled up in the monsoon trough. The former is expected to take a southerly track, skirting northern South America, and possibly into the Bay of Campeche. Given this track, none of the models are suggesting it will develop. However, tropical cyclones that spin up in the Bay of Campeche generally have a short forecast lead time, so it's something to watch. The latter wave could take a slightly more northern track through the Caribbean islands, and a couple of the models seem to favor this wave for development at the end of their runs.

Tropical wave activity has been lacking so far this season, but climatologically we should see an increase in African easterly waves in August and September.

Angela

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My radars are down too. Pretty ticked because I heard thunder while I was outside doing yard work and wanted to see if the rain was going to hit my house. Oh well.
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he spam poor dr RickyRood blog too
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Quoting Ribbitman:
I am on Lake Toledo Bend in LA,just north of AtHomeInTex.The lack of rain here has dropped the lake 10'and is at a critical state both navigating safely or just on the verge being a ball to launch a boat.I am not a wishcaster but a TS or TD would be great.I understand high pressure which has dominated our area and why we have been "0" on the rain,man,enough is enough..Been watching 90L and its recent flair-up,I think if it ever got in the GOM with a COC,well anything could happen,at 0% probability,will see..One other thing,AtHomeInTex,did I understand you were in Vider,Rita kicked our butty here,wks with out power..Not Fun


Hello neighbor, I am in Newton Texas. Just a few miles from you.
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I am only speaking for myself at the moment....Gonna take a long nap and come back later.....Bye.
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looked like it stop for now
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Quoting Tazmanian:



what are you talking about


Go back and look at 204 and your quote. Admin is deleting his posts now. Your quote still has the original post in it.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
I think this site has been hacked, radars are down, spammer going balistic


Not just this site. Radar messed up on NWS site too. Wonder what's up.
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I really can't get it through my head as to why someone would want to spam or troll a weather blog??? I guess when your life is so lame that you have to do stuff like that to get attention, then it seems logical.
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I am on Lake Toledo Bend in LA,just north of AtHomeInTex.The lack of rain here has dropped the lake 10'and is at a critical state both navigating safely or just on the verge being a ball to launch a boat.I am not a wishcaster but a TS or TD would be great.I understand high pressure which has dominated our area and why we have been "0" on the rain,man,enough is enough..Been watching 90L and its recent flair-up,I think if it ever got in the GOM with a COC,well anything could happen,at 0% probability,will see..One other thing,AtHomeInTex,did I understand you were in Vider,Rita kicked our butty here,wks with out power..Not Fun
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Quoting Tazmanian:





will you stop it

i report him TAZ, but i don't see action yet from ADMIN
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Everybody check your radars


The stations are working, my nexrad on weathertap is fine.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Taz this is a serious question, how come your blogs are completely perfect in grammar yet your posts are not?

Because he copies and pasts what they say. They are not his own words. Ask him how he got his comments so high as well.
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238. JRRP
ey imbecil....
que se siente ser reportado ?
eh ?
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Everyone's posts are disappearing now!
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Quoting DestinJeff:


Take us to Ludicrous Speed!


I've lost the bleeps, I lost the sweeps, and I lost the creeps.
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Quoting Stats56:


He meant you quoted the spammer again.

Edit it out please



what are you talking about
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I think this site has been hacked, radars are down, spammer going balistic
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
...
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....
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Quoting Tazmanian:




ahhhhhhhhhhhhhh dont look at me lol am not doing it



oh ADMIN


He meant you quoted the spammer again.

Edit it out please
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where the admin
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Radars aren't working for me either in all the sources i've checked.
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Everybody check your radars
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
I don't know what to call it. A more developed blob on this run? Lol. ECMWF takes it into about the middle TX coast. Could be a good thing like that. Rain without destruction. :)

Link
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Oh crap, were under attack again. Man the battle stations
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and down goes the blog....
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Isnt this illegal?
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Radars are jammed
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
Quoting DestinJeff:
Taz, you just did it again.




ahhhhhhhhhhhhhh dont look at me lol am not doing it



oh ADMIN
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Quoting animalrsq:


They are stuck for me at 1342 EDT


Wonder what the hell is going on...
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
Quoting RitaEvac:
Uhh, are all the radars stuck around the 12:35 to 12:40PM CDT, or is it my browser?


They are stuck for me at 1342 EDT
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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