A heat wave recap; generally quiet tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on July 25, 2011

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Last week's U.S. heat wave has finally subsided, and most of the Northeast will see some cool highs in the 70s today. Unfortunately, the Midwest, and mid-Atlantic will continue to see high temperatures in the 90s for the rest of this week, and the southern Plains will be forced to continue to endure triple-digits.

According to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), 2,100 daily high maximum temperature records have been set so far in July 2011, and 51% of those were set last week. 4,734 daily high minimum temperature records have been set so far this month, and 55% of those were set last week. Here's a breakdown of last week's records for the period July 18 through July 24:

High Maximum:

• 1,076 warmest maximum temperature for the date
• 90 warmest maximum temperature for the month of July
• 56 warmest maximum temperature of all time

High Minimum:

• 2,595 warmest minimum temperature for the date
• 207 warmest minimum temperature for the month of July
• 123 warmest minimum temperature of all time

The number of warm minimum temperatures is especially disturbing, as these tend to have more of an impact on health than the high maximums. When the temperature remains high at night, it prevents the body from being able to recover from the day's heat. According to NOAA, from July 1 through July 19, there were 22 heat-related deaths in the United States. Reuters is reporting that 34 deaths resulted from this heat wave. In an average year, heat remains the number one weather-related killer in this country. In some ways, the overnight low temperatures are the best way to quantify a heat wave, possibly even better than the heat index.


Figure 1. Map of daily high maximum temperature records for the period July 1 through July 25 from NCDC. Red circles without an X denote a broken record; red circles with an X denote a tied record.

Tropical Overview

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L is moving slowly west through the Caribbean near Jamaica. A new burst of convection started this morning, which will undoubtedly produce some heavy rain over southern Cuba and Jamaica. While low-level circulation has remained about the same since late last week, the wave has become top-heavy with increased circulation at higher levels (700-500mb). None of the models (GFS, ECMWF, CMC, NGPS, UKMET) are developing this wave as tracks into the Gulf of Mexico, and they're all in agreement that the path will be toward far southern Texas or northern Mexico, except for the ECMWF deterministic run, which hints that it will take a turn toward the northern Gulf. However, this model hasn't shown actual development from the wave since Tuesday or Wednesday of last week.

NHC has dropped this invest as of Saturday afternoon, but it remains on their radar. They're giving the wave a 0% chance to form over the next 48 hours. Given the recent uptick in mid-level circulation, I'd imagine they're still a little concerned about the potential for this wave to fire-up again once it's in the Gulf, and it will surely be of concern for Cuba as it tracks westward. However, given the lack of model support for almost 7 days in a row now, I'd say this wave has seen its glory come and go.


Figure 2. Visible tropical Atlantic satellite captured at 11:14am EDT on Monday.

Other North Atlantic waves

There are a couple other waves to speak of that have left the coast of Africa in the past few days, one located near 40W and the other closer to Africa, around 30W, which is tangled up in the monsoon trough. The former is expected to take a southerly track, skirting northern South America, and possibly into the Bay of Campeche. Given this track, none of the models are suggesting it will develop. However, tropical cyclones that spin up in the Bay of Campeche generally have a short forecast lead time, so it's something to watch. The latter wave could take a slightly more northern track through the Caribbean islands, and a couple of the models seem to favor this wave for development at the end of their runs.

Tropical wave activity has been lacking so far this season, but climatologically we should see an increase in African easterly waves in August and September.

Angela

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Quoting Neapolitan:

Of course, nobody really sits around the computer "relentlessly wishing hoping and praying for catastrophic extreme weather events" to happen; one needs to just read the news, and--voila--there they appear!

Speaking of: those are some pretty remarkable high temperature records, aren't they? And just think: such heat waves will become a once- or twice-a year event in only a couple of decades. Comforting, no?


Was this "heat wave" ever mentioned this year?

"...FAIRBANKS — It’s Memorial Day weekend in Interior Alaska, so it must be time for another record-breaking heat wave.

One year after Fairbanks set a record high temperature of 82 degrees on May 27, 2010, temperatures soared to 85 degrees. The city wasn’t alone — Tanana, Bettles, Kaltag, Nenana, Eagle and Big Delta also saw record highs set last year replaced by new records Friday.

Fairbanks’ 85-degree mark was just five degrees shy of the all-time May record, set this date in 1947, and is the highest May temperature since May 11, 1995.

If you’re wondering what’s causing this warm weather, look up.

With more than 20 hours of daylight, the sun warms all levels of the atmosphere effectively, explained meteorologist Corey Bogel at the National Weather Service office in Fairbanks.

“We have a ridge of strong high pressure that’s across the Interior that’s accompanied by warm air aloft. With the strong solar heating we get this time of year ... we’re able to mix all this warm air around.”

Without a front of cooler air moving in from Outside, the sun has ample time to reheat the Interior each day..."

From the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner

Nothing to see here, it's just the sun...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Seflhurricane:
why are all the NWS radars down in florida ???? whats going on


Not just Florida, everywhere.
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the NOGAPS developing storms aint saying much..
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Now were stuck at 41 minutes past the hr at Houston radar
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
299. beell
poof


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Quoting P451:
If you focus on the western tip of Jamaica you can see rotation of some sort. 8hrs WV Imagery - sped up to get a look at the potential rotation. Don't pay attention so much to the dry pocket of air as much as the deeper convection.




There's something going on in there now. See what it looks like in a few hours in another looping sequence.

i have been observing that area for hours now and it appears to me a LLC is forming
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Link Click just about anywhere except WA and you get it.


Does that automatically update to say "undergoing maintanence" once radar goes down though? I don't see any radar status messages on the NWS site.
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296. xcool
90L IS BACK IMO
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Ok, radars coming back now
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
why are all the NWS radars down in florida ???? whats going on
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the remains of 90L is starting to look good and the circulation to the NW of jamaica is starting to wrap convection around it, even though the NHC deactivated 90L this is going to be tricky and i believe it will try to develop near western cuba near the yucatan peninsula
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Darn RADAR down ... and we were about to get some rain, too!

Guess maybe tomorrow.


OMG, now have to do things the old fashion way!!!!



(sticks head out door)
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Maybe uncle Sam is setting an example that they will shut down every and anything
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
286. xcool
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Quoting RitaEvac:
275 on this site, it's saying it in red at the top for every radar site that you click on


Yeah all im saying is that it is not the radar sites themselves, so no upgrade or maintenance or anything like that.
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Quoting Ribbitman:
I am on Lake Toledo Bend in LA,just north of AtHomeInTex.The lack of rain here has dropped the lake 10'and is at a critical state both navigating safely or just on the verge being a ball to launch a boat.I am not a wishcaster but a TS or TD would be great.I understand high pressure which has dominated our area and why we have been "0" on the rain,man,enough is enough..Been watching 90L and its recent flair-up,I think if it ever got in the GOM with a COC,well anything could happen,at 0% probability,will see..One other thing,AtHomeInTex,did I understand you were in Vider,Rita kicked our butty here,wks with out power..Not Fun


Yes in Vidor. I spent about three weeks in Kilgore after Rita. We finally got to go back to my parents house (the one still standing) about the middle of October when the power was restored. I remember driving through a completely blacked out Jasper at that time the power was still out! I remember seeing I think it was the Jasper Co. sheriff on TV trying to get some kind of help for everyone up there. Broke my heart watching it. :( It was about 9 kinds of horrible after Rita. I don't think most people realize how far inland the destruction went. This drought is terrible too. But let's hope there's a gentler way of ending it this time. I'm with you a nice wet TD or TS would be good.
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Quoting JRRP:
ey imbecil....
que se siente ser reportado ?
eh ?
JRRP.Acabo de entrar de quien hablas?
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invest_DEACTIVATE_al902011.ren
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Quoting Tazmanian:



that why i like POOFING its make this blog a more happy place too live ooops i farted


Seems like I mentioned this yesterday!
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Quoting IceCoast:


Ya we had some storms and downpours up here in the northeast to. Was watching them on radar at the golf course to make sure none of them looked severe.


We've had an unusually rainy pattern here for a while now. We never have a flash flood watch in the summer, but we do today. We'll take all we can get after how dry it had been for the first half of this year.
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Quoting IceCoast:


Link? That doesn't seem probable with sever weather watches up.


Link Click just about anywhere except WA and you get it.
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275 on this site, it's saying it in red at the top for every radar site that you click on
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
Mine is down here in Mobile too. This is weird to have all radars down at the same time. Something is going on here. Cyber attack maybe?
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Now their all saying radar down for maintenence...the whole country?


Link? That doesn't seem probable with sever weather watches up.
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Quoting P451:
Yeah it appears all radar sites are down. Some went down quicker than others. The whole network is out for some reason. I've checked several websites - same thing.



My weathertap radar is still up, and it uses nexrad level II radar.
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All NWS offices doing a upgrade or something
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
269. JRRP
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Now their all saying radar down for maintenence...the whole country?
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
Quoting Tazmanian:

"...thats ok lol

i no we all post the same maps overe and overe evere day but am this trying too get him too look at the commets 1st be for posting the same thing overe i can under staned if we where 5 page a head of the last map of the same thing posted but if where olny this a coulp of commets a head this need too larn too look at the commets 1st be for posting the same maps..."

Had to reply to this one...

Considering that Taz "poofs" almost everyone that upsets him, how can he complain that others don't read every single post?

For example, if someone repeats a picture that Jason posted, Taz would never know it...
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Quoting MississippiWx:
My radars are down too. Pretty ticked because I heard thunder while I was outside doing yard work and wanted to see if the rain was going to hit my house. Oh well.


Ya we had some storms and downpours up here in the northeast to. Was watching them on radar at the golf course to make sure none of them looked severe.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Well well well, look what model develops ex-90L now.
12z NOGAPS.

Not much, but its a start.
Link
Would that be a Tropical Storm according to NOGAPS into the South Central Texas coast?
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Quoting MississippiWx:
My radars are down too. Pretty ticked because I heard thunder while I was outside doing yard work and wanted to see if the rain was going to hit my house. Oh well.


Same here, thunder nearby and I can't even check to see what the hell it's doing and direction it's going
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
BTW, my radar is down too.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wunderground is under attack! Man your stations! Protect the blog!

FIRE!!!!



BOOM! you miss
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Wunderground is under attack! Man your stations! Protect the blog!

FIRE!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.