A heat wave recap; generally quiet tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on July 25, 2011

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Last week's U.S. heat wave has finally subsided, and most of the Northeast will see some cool highs in the 70s today. Unfortunately, the Midwest, and mid-Atlantic will continue to see high temperatures in the 90s for the rest of this week, and the southern Plains will be forced to continue to endure triple-digits.

According to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), 2,100 daily high maximum temperature records have been set so far in July 2011, and 51% of those were set last week. 4,734 daily high minimum temperature records have been set so far this month, and 55% of those were set last week. Here's a breakdown of last week's records for the period July 18 through July 24:

High Maximum:

• 1,076 warmest maximum temperature for the date
• 90 warmest maximum temperature for the month of July
• 56 warmest maximum temperature of all time

High Minimum:

• 2,595 warmest minimum temperature for the date
• 207 warmest minimum temperature for the month of July
• 123 warmest minimum temperature of all time

The number of warm minimum temperatures is especially disturbing, as these tend to have more of an impact on health than the high maximums. When the temperature remains high at night, it prevents the body from being able to recover from the day's heat. According to NOAA, from July 1 through July 19, there were 22 heat-related deaths in the United States. Reuters is reporting that 34 deaths resulted from this heat wave. In an average year, heat remains the number one weather-related killer in this country. In some ways, the overnight low temperatures are the best way to quantify a heat wave, possibly even better than the heat index.


Figure 1. Map of daily high maximum temperature records for the period July 1 through July 25 from NCDC. Red circles without an X denote a broken record; red circles with an X denote a tied record.

Tropical Overview

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L is moving slowly west through the Caribbean near Jamaica. A new burst of convection started this morning, which will undoubtedly produce some heavy rain over southern Cuba and Jamaica. While low-level circulation has remained about the same since late last week, the wave has become top-heavy with increased circulation at higher levels (700-500mb). None of the models (GFS, ECMWF, CMC, NGPS, UKMET) are developing this wave as tracks into the Gulf of Mexico, and they're all in agreement that the path will be toward far southern Texas or northern Mexico, except for the ECMWF deterministic run, which hints that it will take a turn toward the northern Gulf. However, this model hasn't shown actual development from the wave since Tuesday or Wednesday of last week.

NHC has dropped this invest as of Saturday afternoon, but it remains on their radar. They're giving the wave a 0% chance to form over the next 48 hours. Given the recent uptick in mid-level circulation, I'd imagine they're still a little concerned about the potential for this wave to fire-up again once it's in the Gulf, and it will surely be of concern for Cuba as it tracks westward. However, given the lack of model support for almost 7 days in a row now, I'd say this wave has seen its glory come and go.


Figure 2. Visible tropical Atlantic satellite captured at 11:14am EDT on Monday.

Other North Atlantic waves

There are a couple other waves to speak of that have left the coast of Africa in the past few days, one located near 40W and the other closer to Africa, around 30W, which is tangled up in the monsoon trough. The former is expected to take a southerly track, skirting northern South America, and possibly into the Bay of Campeche. Given this track, none of the models are suggesting it will develop. However, tropical cyclones that spin up in the Bay of Campeche generally have a short forecast lead time, so it's something to watch. The latter wave could take a slightly more northern track through the Caribbean islands, and a couple of the models seem to favor this wave for development at the end of their runs.

Tropical wave activity has been lacking so far this season, but climatologically we should see an increase in African easterly waves in August and September.

Angela

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It looks like a decent roataion just to the north of Montego Bay.
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There is a good chance that old 90L is not gonna form into anything and at the same time it is gonna form into something
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah, I see it. We will need to watch 90L closely, as it appears the chances for development have went up slightly with this latest organization. At this time, I'm thinking it will cross the extreme northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula or enter the Gulf of Mexico without interacting with the Peninsula. After that, 90L may have a bit of shear to deal with, but we need to wait a little while to be sure. This is a Southern Texas/Northern Mexico threat IMO.
but the whole circulation envelope is tilted from NE to SW look closely at the carribbean visible
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Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
this is no near 0% to me should've left it at 10%...remember bret i think it was 30% at 2 and then classified at 5 pm....consertative nhc
thats right actually and i have seen systems with a 10% and within 8-10 hrs been classified
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
tropical have you looked at the NW tip of Jamaica looks like a LLC is developing , and this is a hot spot to develop, especially the HOT water south of cuba


Yeah, I see it. We will need to watch 90L closely, as it appears the chances for development have went up slightly with this latest organization. At this time, I'm thinking it will cross the extreme northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula or enter the Gulf of Mexico without interacting with the Peninsula. After that, 90L may have a bit of shear to deal with, but we need to wait a little while to be sure. This is a Southern Texas/Northern Mexico threat IMO.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
21N, 78W ... or so
i would say 19N and 77W
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I don't know if it is organizing be we are now receiving very heavy rains,lightning, thunder and gusty winds.
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Radars are back up!
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ex90L also is taking on a Coma type apperance
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
same place NOGAPS brings it,albeit a bit stronger on NOGAPS


Hmmm. That would make sense if there's indeed a weakness in the ridge in the NW GOM. Like the NWS discussion said. Cool. Might get some rain after all. :)
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Well, well, well...









Are you allowed to post those without Taz's permission and without scrolling back the last 10,000 posts to make sure it wasn't posted before?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


They made a bad choice in deactivating 90L IMO.
tropical have you looked at the NW tip of Jamaica looks like a LLC is developing , and this is a hot spot to develop, especially the HOT water south of cuba
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
something strange is going on between jamaica , cuba and the cayman islands weak circulation is forming and getting better defined


Best looking rotation it's ever had, imo. And it's happened quite quickly, which could signal rapid development. The water there has a lot of heat in it. The 'near 0%' looks a bit daft as of now.

Link
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Quoting kwgirl:
The KW radar was down earlier with a note that it would sporadic. something about new software. It is probably the Govt. hiding an alien invasion. Figured the weather geeks would see it before anyone. We have been sold out by the weather service and govt to whatever alien race is paying the big bucks to land here. The temperature on earth is probably beginning to be just right for them:)


LOL Time to pull out my megazapper, ultra wideband ray gun.
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Quoting alfabob:

That isn't it.


??

Correction: To the NW of Jamaica.

Double correction: No...NE of Jamaica.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Quoting DestinJeff:
Well, well, well...







looks like the vorticity is increasing near the tip of jamaica and south of cuba where i see the circulation
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Well, well, well...









They made a bad choice in deactivating 90L IMO.
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GOES-13 GOM/Caribbean Low cloud Product Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Quoting RitaEvac:
Massive network failure today at all NWS sites. That's not good for US sakes. Shows it can be jammed/taken out at anytime


ITS NOT A PROBLEM WITH THE RADARS
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after carefully looking at visible images it appears to me a LLC is forming to the NW tip of jamaica
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Quoting emcf30:
The local TV stations never lost their radars in my area. Good backup I guess


Radars themselves are fine, it's the network that distributes it to sites that failed



Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Quoting Seflhurricane:
whats up ??? have you looked at ex90L something is brewing between the caymans and jamaica


There is definitely some rotation to the northeast of Jamaica. In my opinion, if current trends continue, they need to reactivate 90L tonight or tomorrow. It's not dead yet, and the GFS is actually showing development of 90L, but it is only one run.

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Wave at 35W drifting northward the last few frames. Interesting...
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Quoting P451:
Yeah it appears all radar sites are down. Some went down quicker than others. The whole network is out for some reason. I've checked several websites - same thing.

The KW radar was down earlier with a note that it would sporadic. something about new software. It is probably the Govt. hiding an alien invasion. Figured the weather geeks would see it before anyone. We have been sold out by the weather service and govt to whatever alien race is paying the big bucks to land here. The temperature on earth is probably beginning to be just right for them:)
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
I don't know what to call it. A more developed blob on this run? Lol. ECMWF takes it into about the middle TX coast. Could be a good thing like that. Rain without destruction. :)

Link
same place NOGAPS brings it,albeit a bit stronger on NOGAPS
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The local TV stations never lost their radars in my area. Good backup I guess
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Quoting IceCoast:


Does that automatically update to say "undergoing maintanence" once radar goes down though? I don't see any radar status messages on the NWS site.


Yes it does, but now I see they are starting to work again. Some still show nothing but the one next to it works.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Not just Florida, everywhere.
whats up ??? have you looked at ex90L something is brewing between the caymans and jamaica
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Quoting DestinJeff:


it's Houston. You're RADAR image hasn't changed really for the better part of 6 months.


lol
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Massive network failure today at all NWS sites. That's not good for US sakes. Shows it can be jammed/taken out at anytime
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
2:41 PM EDT here for the radar...
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something strange is going on between jamaica , cuba and the cayman islands weak circulation is forming and getting better defined
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Starting to slowly update Nexrad on my phone. Got albany, NY at 2:54 pm, and Boston at 2:38 pm EST
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Quoting JRRP:
Opps.Puerto Rico under the gun again and from far,far away,Thanks God is just a model.
Member Since: June 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1213
Quoting Neapolitan:

Of course, nobody really sits around the computer "relentlessly wishing hoping and praying for catastrophic extreme weather events" to happen; one needs to just read the news, and--voila--there they appear!

Speaking of: those are some pretty remarkable high temperature records, aren't they? And just think: such heat waves will become a once- or twice-a year event in only a couple of decades. Comforting, no?


Was this "heat wave" ever mentioned this year?

"...FAIRBANKS — It’s Memorial Day weekend in Interior Alaska, so it must be time for another record-breaking heat wave.

One year after Fairbanks set a record high temperature of 82 degrees on May 27, 2010, temperatures soared to 85 degrees. The city wasn’t alone — Tanana, Bettles, Kaltag, Nenana, Eagle and Big Delta also saw record highs set last year replaced by new records Friday.

Fairbanks’ 85-degree mark was just five degrees shy of the all-time May record, set this date in 1947, and is the highest May temperature since May 11, 1995.

If you’re wondering what’s causing this warm weather, look up.

With more than 20 hours of daylight, the sun warms all levels of the atmosphere effectively, explained meteorologist Corey Bogel at the National Weather Service office in Fairbanks.

“We have a ridge of strong high pressure that’s across the Interior that’s accompanied by warm air aloft. With the strong solar heating we get this time of year ... we’re able to mix all this warm air around.”

Without a front of cooler air moving in from Outside, the sun has ample time to reheat the Interior each day..."

From the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner

Nothing to see here, it's just the sun...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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