A heat wave recap; generally quiet tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on July 25, 2011

Share this Blog
6
+

Last week's U.S. heat wave has finally subsided, and most of the Northeast will see some cool highs in the 70s today. Unfortunately, the Midwest, and mid-Atlantic will continue to see high temperatures in the 90s for the rest of this week, and the southern Plains will be forced to continue to endure triple-digits.

According to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), 2,100 daily high maximum temperature records have been set so far in July 2011, and 51% of those were set last week. 4,734 daily high minimum temperature records have been set so far this month, and 55% of those were set last week. Here's a breakdown of last week's records for the period July 18 through July 24:

High Maximum:

• 1,076 warmest maximum temperature for the date
• 90 warmest maximum temperature for the month of July
• 56 warmest maximum temperature of all time

High Minimum:

• 2,595 warmest minimum temperature for the date
• 207 warmest minimum temperature for the month of July
• 123 warmest minimum temperature of all time

The number of warm minimum temperatures is especially disturbing, as these tend to have more of an impact on health than the high maximums. When the temperature remains high at night, it prevents the body from being able to recover from the day's heat. According to NOAA, from July 1 through July 19, there were 22 heat-related deaths in the United States. Reuters is reporting that 34 deaths resulted from this heat wave. In an average year, heat remains the number one weather-related killer in this country. In some ways, the overnight low temperatures are the best way to quantify a heat wave, possibly even better than the heat index.


Figure 1. Map of daily high maximum temperature records for the period July 1 through July 25 from NCDC. Red circles without an X denote a broken record; red circles with an X denote a tied record.

Tropical Overview

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L is moving slowly west through the Caribbean near Jamaica. A new burst of convection started this morning, which will undoubtedly produce some heavy rain over southern Cuba and Jamaica. While low-level circulation has remained about the same since late last week, the wave has become top-heavy with increased circulation at higher levels (700-500mb). None of the models (GFS, ECMWF, CMC, NGPS, UKMET) are developing this wave as tracks into the Gulf of Mexico, and they're all in agreement that the path will be toward far southern Texas or northern Mexico, except for the ECMWF deterministic run, which hints that it will take a turn toward the northern Gulf. However, this model hasn't shown actual development from the wave since Tuesday or Wednesday of last week.

NHC has dropped this invest as of Saturday afternoon, but it remains on their radar. They're giving the wave a 0% chance to form over the next 48 hours. Given the recent uptick in mid-level circulation, I'd imagine they're still a little concerned about the potential for this wave to fire-up again once it's in the Gulf, and it will surely be of concern for Cuba as it tracks westward. However, given the lack of model support for almost 7 days in a row now, I'd say this wave has seen its glory come and go.


Figure 2. Visible tropical Atlantic satellite captured at 11:14am EDT on Monday.

Other North Atlantic waves

There are a couple other waves to speak of that have left the coast of Africa in the past few days, one located near 40W and the other closer to Africa, around 30W, which is tangled up in the monsoon trough. The former is expected to take a southerly track, skirting northern South America, and possibly into the Bay of Campeche. Given this track, none of the models are suggesting it will develop. However, tropical cyclones that spin up in the Bay of Campeche generally have a short forecast lead time, so it's something to watch. The latter wave could take a slightly more northern track through the Caribbean islands, and a couple of the models seem to favor this wave for development at the end of their runs.

Tropical wave activity has been lacking so far this season, but climatologically we should see an increase in African easterly waves in August and September.

Angela

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 756 - 706

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47Blog Index

Quoting washingtonian115:
The models also show favorable conditions previling in the way of the wave.Am I saing belive the models?.No.It's just something to monitor and track.
Even though 90L is showing some signs of trying to get it's act together I don't think It will be a Erin or Dolly situation as some Bloggers are suggesting.It's circulation will once again be dirupted when It hits the Yucatan.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
755. beell
Quoting RitaEvac:
This says it all

Link


Pretty impressive.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
754. j2008
Quoting scott39:
Or maybe they know something that we dont.

Theres an update in an hour and a half, so we will see then if they know something we dont.
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
if it dies out tonight crow taste alot like this ahi i had a few months ago almost gagged
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:
AtHomeInTX Good to see you again


You too xcool. :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
Quoting scott39:
Ok, Im no weather expert by any means, but I come home and see it has a near 0% chance! The NHC is confusing sometimes!
Or maybe they know something that we dont.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link

Looking good
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TomTaylor:
Yes ma'am

here's the link where you can watch the model run


Thanks Tom! Will gladly take the rain. :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
Quoting Seflhurricane:
by the way anyone seen Drakoen ???
he's popped in on occasion. I saw him on here a few days ago
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ok, Im no weather expert by any means, but I come home and see it has a near 0% chance! The NHC is confusing sometimes!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting j2008:

MONSTERS!!!! Don doesnt sound like a monsters name though.


We'll call it "Donster the Monster"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Shear should also be favorable as well along with low SAL.This wave will need to be monitored as it rolls off.I think this is the one the models were developing if memory serves correctly.
The models also show favorable conditions previling in the way of the wave.Am I saing belive the models?.No.It's just something to monitor and track.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Vincent4989:
Seismic map anyone? my dad said it quaked in their area.


Where is his area? I only see couple in Alaska and couple in California. And then the rest of the world. Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
742. xcool
AtHomeInTX Good to see you again
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting j2008:

MONSTERS!!!! Don doesnt sound like a monsters name though.
you never know ??????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
738. j2008
Quoting Seflhurricane:
we have been here long enough to know and i truly think that ex90L has a shot if it remains south of cuba which its currently doing, but one thing you forgot to mention is the TCHP just to its west which has been know to create monsters , which may or may not happen in this case but should aid in development especially at the stage its in

MONSTERS!!!! Don doesnt sound like a monsters name though.
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
a good person to ask abut observations near ex90L would be kman
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey xcool. Thanks all who answered my question. :) And it wouldn't surprise me if it missed TX to the east or west or south. Lol. ;)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
Quoting washingtonian115:
I think their's a small chance 90L might develop.However we will eventually need to turn our heads twards africa as a wave with a low will be soon exiting.
Shear should also be favorable as well along with low SAL.This wave will need to be monitored as it rolls off.I think this is the one the models were developing if memory serves correctly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
by the way anyone seen Drakoen ???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TomTaylor:
18z GFS sends the vort max into Texas/Louisiana border


Which we'll gladly take as long as it's only a lot of lovely rain...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I've had moments where I've been somewhat optimistic about it making a shot. But it has had several factors to fight against and I will admit it has made it far and often persistent buggers like 90L develop. I give it a 10% of developing, which is more than the NHC is giving it. The lack of model support is one thing, as brought up though the models didn't develop Bret and Cindy those where much more uncertain and delicate situations as trough splits often are and they developed. This is different. 90L had to deal with dry air too, but it managed through that. What is killing 90L though is how much land interaction it had with Haiti, and it may not reorganize to the state it was previously at before it hits or clips the Yucatan which should disrupt its circulation as well. In the GOMEX though, all things are off and if it does try to spin up it will probably be an Erin like situation.
we have been here long enough to know and i truly think that ex90L has a shot if it remains south of cuba which its currently doing, but one thing you forgot to mention is the TCHP just to its west which has been know to create monsters , which may or may not happen in this case but should aid in development especially at the stage its in
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
This says it all

Link
Sure looks to me like a good circulation around 78/79W and 19N.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
He's hoping it won't develop cause he already had a round of crows and its another risk again imo


He's saying it probably won't develop because it probably won't.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


90L'S vort?
Yes ma'am

here's the link where you can watch the model run
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I was never too impressed with 90L but tonight i believe if it ever has a shot it is now. The atmosphere appears to be becoming more conducive for development. Vorticity looks to be trying to work down to the lower levels a bit. High TCHP can play a role tonight also with more buoyant energy thus more evaporation increasing lapse rates and causing a more unstable atmosphere. Also take into account any forced lifting from nearby outflow boundaries caused by dying thunderstorms on Jamaica and Cuba can really get the lifting process in motion. My gut tells me that it will make great strides tonight now how much i really cant say. I could be absolutely wrong though but its just a gut feeling. If it dont do it tonight i believe its over for ex-90L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yes
tropical ex90L is really looking impressive since 1pm till now does it look like its going to hang on through the night ??? i think so
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


You really don't like this system, do you? Ever since the beginning, you've said it won't develop. Maybe you'll be right.


I've had moments where I've been somewhat optimistic about it making a shot. But it has had several factors to fight against and I will admit it has made it far and often persistent buggers like 90L develop. I give it a 10% of developing, which is more than the NHC is giving it. The lack of model support is one thing, as brought up though the models didn't develop Bret and Cindy those where much more uncertain and delicate situations as trough splits often are and they developed. This is different. 90L had to deal with dry air too, but it managed through that. What is killing 90L though is how much land interaction it had with Haiti, and it may not reorganize to the state it was previously at before it hits or clips the Yucatan which should disrupt its circulation as well. In the GOMEX though, all things are off and if it does try to spin up it will probably be an Erin like situation.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24579
Quoting Seflhurricane:
tropical i think its going to develop BUT very slowly more likely when its near the yucatan
it would suck if it develops and misses the lonestar state to the east
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think their's a small chance 90L might develop.However we will eventually need to turn our heads twards africa as a wave with a low will be soon exiting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
718. xcool
AtHomeInTX hey
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


90L'S vort?


Yes
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
716. xcool


nice Convection is increasing
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting TomTaylor:
18z GFS sends the vort max into Texas/Louisiana border



90L'S vort?
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
hoping for slow development things like this can get out of hand
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'M going out on a limb and say ex90L will develop into a TS, hope the limb is not rotten and buzzards flying over :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
IMO 90L will be at 0% at 8pm, 'maybe' 10% at 2am if it sustains convection and has a sudden burst of convection but right now it looks likely that 90L will not develop into a tropical cyclone.


I agree.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
710. j2008
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
expect the unexpected..I think it'll develop ;)

I personally think its going to be a toss up. It all depends on how quickly it gets its act together. If it takes its time it wont be a TC, if its a little quicker it will possibly be a TC. Just my analysis on this system, I've been wrong alot so we will have to wait and see what happens.
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
18z GFS sends the vort max into Texas/Louisiana border

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Seismic map anyone? my dad said it quaked in their area.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


You really don't like this system, do you? Ever since the beginning, you've said it won't develop. Maybe you'll be right.
tropical i think its going to develop BUT very slowly more likely when its near the yucatan
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This says it all

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 756 - 706

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron