A heat wave recap; generally quiet tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on July 25, 2011

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Last week's U.S. heat wave has finally subsided, and most of the Northeast will see some cool highs in the 70s today. Unfortunately, the Midwest, and mid-Atlantic will continue to see high temperatures in the 90s for the rest of this week, and the southern Plains will be forced to continue to endure triple-digits.

According to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), 2,100 daily high maximum temperature records have been set so far in July 2011, and 51% of those were set last week. 4,734 daily high minimum temperature records have been set so far this month, and 55% of those were set last week. Here's a breakdown of last week's records for the period July 18 through July 24:

High Maximum:

• 1,076 warmest maximum temperature for the date
• 90 warmest maximum temperature for the month of July
• 56 warmest maximum temperature of all time

High Minimum:

• 2,595 warmest minimum temperature for the date
• 207 warmest minimum temperature for the month of July
• 123 warmest minimum temperature of all time

The number of warm minimum temperatures is especially disturbing, as these tend to have more of an impact on health than the high maximums. When the temperature remains high at night, it prevents the body from being able to recover from the day's heat. According to NOAA, from July 1 through July 19, there were 22 heat-related deaths in the United States. Reuters is reporting that 34 deaths resulted from this heat wave. In an average year, heat remains the number one weather-related killer in this country. In some ways, the overnight low temperatures are the best way to quantify a heat wave, possibly even better than the heat index.


Figure 1. Map of daily high maximum temperature records for the period July 1 through July 25 from NCDC. Red circles without an X denote a broken record; red circles with an X denote a tied record.

Tropical Overview

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L is moving slowly west through the Caribbean near Jamaica. A new burst of convection started this morning, which will undoubtedly produce some heavy rain over southern Cuba and Jamaica. While low-level circulation has remained about the same since late last week, the wave has become top-heavy with increased circulation at higher levels (700-500mb). None of the models (GFS, ECMWF, CMC, NGPS, UKMET) are developing this wave as tracks into the Gulf of Mexico, and they're all in agreement that the path will be toward far southern Texas or northern Mexico, except for the ECMWF deterministic run, which hints that it will take a turn toward the northern Gulf. However, this model hasn't shown actual development from the wave since Tuesday or Wednesday of last week.

NHC has dropped this invest as of Saturday afternoon, but it remains on their radar. They're giving the wave a 0% chance to form over the next 48 hours. Given the recent uptick in mid-level circulation, I'd imagine they're still a little concerned about the potential for this wave to fire-up again once it's in the Gulf, and it will surely be of concern for Cuba as it tracks westward. However, given the lack of model support for almost 7 days in a row now, I'd say this wave has seen its glory come and go.


Figure 2. Visible tropical Atlantic satellite captured at 11:14am EDT on Monday.

Other North Atlantic waves

There are a couple other waves to speak of that have left the coast of Africa in the past few days, one located near 40W and the other closer to Africa, around 30W, which is tangled up in the monsoon trough. The former is expected to take a southerly track, skirting northern South America, and possibly into the Bay of Campeche. Given this track, none of the models are suggesting it will develop. However, tropical cyclones that spin up in the Bay of Campeche generally have a short forecast lead time, so it's something to watch. The latter wave could take a slightly more northern track through the Caribbean islands, and a couple of the models seem to favor this wave for development at the end of their runs.

Tropical wave activity has been lacking so far this season, but climatologically we should see an increase in African easterly waves in August and September.

Angela

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Quoting muddertracker:

This morning Levi said that if 90l can produce enough heat, it can possibly (possibly) split trough...possibly?


True, but then it still has the death ridge to deal with.
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2205. Walshy
Quoting mynameispaul:
Anyone seeing any models shifting north to TX/LA border? Looked to me like CMC, GFS and NGP shifted northward - or am I misinterpreting the models?


Until the storm forms models may be off.
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Quoting ncstorm:


Has anyone noticed that where the NHC puts a circle on their map that there is never any blue on this map where the circle is?

Epic
Fail
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Upper level trough...



That will create higher wind shear. Not to mention, easterly shear from the death ridge will also result in shear. That animation you posted doesn't seem too accurate.

This morning Levi said that if 90l can produce enough heat, it can possibly (possibly) split trough...possibly?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2338
2202. ncstorm
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2200. Patrap
AL, 90, 2011072612, 20.0N, 83.0W, 25, 1010, DB
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Lots of thunderstorm activity...convection piling up off the NC/SC coast the next 24 hours...any thoughts? Kind of similar to Bret
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Quoting TampaSpin:


are conditions favorable for a more northward shift? Looks like you were on the money the other nite Tampa! Great Job!
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Quoting Vincent4989:
When will Angela post her new blog?


Later on today...She is going off of PDT, so it is only 8:40 AM there. If she even makes one, today...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


The water temperatures are useless if there are upper level problems.


Tropical weather 101.... Always expect the unexpected
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Quoting TampaSpin:



Hum..........NOT SURE YET?



Upper level trough...



That will create higher wind shear. Not to mention, easterly shear from the death ridge will also result in shear. That animation you posted doesn't seem too accurate.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

But how about bath water temps to feed on, could that make a difference?


The water temperatures are useless if there are upper level problems.
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Where's 90L's center of circulation? to the clouds on the left side or the gap between the left and right clouds?
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Anyone seeing any models shifting north to TX/LA border? Looked to me like CMC, GFS and NGP shifted northward - or am I misinterpreting the models?
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2190. wpb
capital hill has the country a in a

tropical depression
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
A hurricane at this point can pretty much be ruled out...Upper level conditions will not be all that favorable in the Gulf of Mexico.



Hum..........NOT SURE YET?

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Quoting ncstorm:

well, then...that settles that...lol
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2338
2187. ncstorm


Has anyone noticed that where the NHC puts a circle on their map that there is never any blue on this map where the circle is?
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When will Angela post her new blog?
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Here's a 12 hour comparison. So what do you think, is there a Bush still in the White House?

This thing is a skater with a rink twice the size of Texas.


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Anything goes once it gets in Gulf...how many times have we seen storms explode in the gulf...too many
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2182. bwi
Winds have been pretty light overnight and this morning at Grand Cayman. Have had a bit of a southerly component until recently, which would make sense as the main disturbance passed by to the north and west.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
A hurricane at this point can pretty much be ruled out...Upper level conditions will not be all that favorable in the Gulf of Mexico.

But how about bath water temps to feed on, could that make a difference?
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Geez, it's even my birthday.
Quoting aspectre:
Don't blame Vincent4989 for where the NAM dot and the GFS dot are located.
Sheesh, at least look at the map he provided before trying for "clever".
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the mood on here is a lot different than the mood last night. most on here last night were saying that 90l was dead and those who thought different were just bored and wanted to watch something. i am no met but i knew yesterday that this wave looked better than it did the day before. i got on in the morning and all the people on then called it. i got back on at night and asked why was everyone thinking that it was dead when it clearly looked way better than before and the answer i got was some people stare at things until they see something. but my hats off to you daytime people. you all seem to get it right more then the mets. do. i come here for updates. they are more accurate here than on any news or t.v. weather source. just wanna say thanks for keeping people like me informed:)
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Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
most intensity models have it a 60-65 mph storm


If it gets that high, I'm not 14.

And I'm 14.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
A hurricane at this point can pretty much be ruled out...Upper level conditions will not be favorable in the Gulf of Mexico.


I have heard that statement before when systems get into the GOMEX and most always it does the opposite.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Have to...



LOL!!

Just couldn't resist!
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Don't blame Vincent4989 for where the NAM dot and the GFS dot are located.
Sheesh, at least look at the map he provided in 2135 before trying for "clever".
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Morning all.

That trough - the one anchored by the ULL N of the Bahamas and E of FL - has been drifting west in front of 90L since it got in the CAR... wondering how much of 90L's formation problems are down to its presence and location in relation to the Twave...
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2171. ncstorm
12Z NAM

South Texas with 90L (1008 mb) and another 1008 and 1012 mb off of puerto rico..two lows?

Link
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A hurricane at this point can pretty much be ruled out...Upper level conditions will not be all that favorable in the Gulf of Mexico.
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Yesterday:



Today:



And this isn't even a 24 hour difference. Much better organized.


that was a pretty telling comparison.
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2167. Squid28
While I really don't want a cane, a nice soaker blob or minimal TS would be welcome at my place on the upper Texas coast. According to my personal weather station I am sitting at -25.85 inches of life giving H2O for the year at my place (Shoreacres, TX).
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Maybe a more NW componet
is 90l going to texas
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Quoting SCwannabe:
for the experts...what influence will the ULL of the Fla. east coast and the front sagging into the southeast have on 90L/Don?


Maybe a more NW componet
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
2163. hydrus
<
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2162. Mikla
Cuba radar shows some circulation:
Link
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for the experts...what influence will the ULL of the Fla. east coast and the front sagging into the southeast have on 90L/Don?
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Have to...

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2159. Patrap

12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest90
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




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Everning all.
90L is back and looking good. Tx/Mx, you might be in for a Hurricane in a few days.


Also in the WPAC, the Philippines is getting hammered from TS Nock-Ten. It will track right over Metro Manila. The worst case scenario. Nock-Ten is intensifying and will being massive amounts of rainfall. I would no be surprised if there was lose of life and Heavy flooding.

Nock-Ten
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Quoting muddertracker:


Yeah..I see that..sort of on the north east side of the main ball of convection?

LSU low cloud product:
Link


Yes
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
It is unbelievably frustrating and disappointing for Texans to see Tampico get every single storm.. surprised Tampico hasn't been entirely washed away.

We need to print up brochures, with Erin and Hermine etc on the cover touting the tourist opportunities and have the HH drop them into blobs that say land here.. see the whole country in two weeks, maybe even Nova Scotia!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.