A heat wave recap; generally quiet tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on July 25, 2011

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Last week's U.S. heat wave has finally subsided, and most of the Northeast will see some cool highs in the 70s today. Unfortunately, the Midwest, and mid-Atlantic will continue to see high temperatures in the 90s for the rest of this week, and the southern Plains will be forced to continue to endure triple-digits.

According to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), 2,100 daily high maximum temperature records have been set so far in July 2011, and 51% of those were set last week. 4,734 daily high minimum temperature records have been set so far this month, and 55% of those were set last week. Here's a breakdown of last week's records for the period July 18 through July 24:

High Maximum:

• 1,076 warmest maximum temperature for the date
• 90 warmest maximum temperature for the month of July
• 56 warmest maximum temperature of all time

High Minimum:

• 2,595 warmest minimum temperature for the date
• 207 warmest minimum temperature for the month of July
• 123 warmest minimum temperature of all time

The number of warm minimum temperatures is especially disturbing, as these tend to have more of an impact on health than the high maximums. When the temperature remains high at night, it prevents the body from being able to recover from the day's heat. According to NOAA, from July 1 through July 19, there were 22 heat-related deaths in the United States. Reuters is reporting that 34 deaths resulted from this heat wave. In an average year, heat remains the number one weather-related killer in this country. In some ways, the overnight low temperatures are the best way to quantify a heat wave, possibly even better than the heat index.


Figure 1. Map of daily high maximum temperature records for the period July 1 through July 25 from NCDC. Red circles without an X denote a broken record; red circles with an X denote a tied record.

Tropical Overview

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L is moving slowly west through the Caribbean near Jamaica. A new burst of convection started this morning, which will undoubtedly produce some heavy rain over southern Cuba and Jamaica. While low-level circulation has remained about the same since late last week, the wave has become top-heavy with increased circulation at higher levels (700-500mb). None of the models (GFS, ECMWF, CMC, NGPS, UKMET) are developing this wave as tracks into the Gulf of Mexico, and they're all in agreement that the path will be toward far southern Texas or northern Mexico, except for the ECMWF deterministic run, which hints that it will take a turn toward the northern Gulf. However, this model hasn't shown actual development from the wave since Tuesday or Wednesday of last week.

NHC has dropped this invest as of Saturday afternoon, but it remains on their radar. They're giving the wave a 0% chance to form over the next 48 hours. Given the recent uptick in mid-level circulation, I'd imagine they're still a little concerned about the potential for this wave to fire-up again once it's in the Gulf, and it will surely be of concern for Cuba as it tracks westward. However, given the lack of model support for almost 7 days in a row now, I'd say this wave has seen its glory come and go.


Figure 2. Visible tropical Atlantic satellite captured at 11:14am EDT on Monday.

Other North Atlantic waves

There are a couple other waves to speak of that have left the coast of Africa in the past few days, one located near 40W and the other closer to Africa, around 30W, which is tangled up in the monsoon trough. The former is expected to take a southerly track, skirting northern South America, and possibly into the Bay of Campeche. Given this track, none of the models are suggesting it will develop. However, tropical cyclones that spin up in the Bay of Campeche generally have a short forecast lead time, so it's something to watch. The latter wave could take a slightly more northern track through the Caribbean islands, and a couple of the models seem to favor this wave for development at the end of their runs.

Tropical wave activity has been lacking so far this season, but climatologically we should see an increase in African easterly waves in August and September.

Angela

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Quoting alfabob:

That's SST, I think the ocean is broken.



lol
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Quoting muddertracker:

Taz..I think I'm finally starting to get your humor!



cool
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Why do some people seem to get thier feelings hurt if If I say RIP 90L. It doesnt mean crap!! LOL
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Quoting TxHurricanedude11:

not 0% sorry mr c 10% imo


See, there's a problem here.

'Mr. C' is a professional met.

You aren't.
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Quoting alfabob:

I've had my failures, but this is looking good. IMO 40% in 48 hours.



if am looking at this right it show the mb going up not down lol
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Quoting Tazmanian:



i have some nic lift overe BBQ crow in the oven keeping it warm
Hey, Taz... I prefer stirfry myself, with lots of veggies and Szechuan sauce to cover the gamey taste... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22087
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It's poll time.

Q: How many hurricane landfalls on the USA will we see this season?

A. 0
B. 1-3
C. 4-7
D. Higher

Q: How many major hurricane landfalls on the USA will we see this season?

A. 0
B. 1-3
C. 4-7
D. Higher

Q: How many tropical depression/storm landfalls on the USA will we see this season?

A. 0
B. 1-3
C. 4-7
D. Higher

Bold: My answer
Italic: Possible


B
B
C
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Quoting Tazmanian:


lol

Taz..I think I'm finally starting to get your humor!
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Quoting muddertracker:


Touche' LOL


lol
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945. yoboi
Quoting scott39:
reverse phyc on a wave! Hmmm it just might work. LOL


jim cantore just said RIP ex 90L
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Quoting scott39:
Dont get crazy!



lol now why would i do that
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942. j2008
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It's poll time.

Q: How many hurricane landfalls on the USA will we see this season?

A. 0
B. 1-3
C. 4-7
D. Higher

Q: How many major hurricane landfalls on the USA will we see this season?

A. 0
B. 1-3
C. 4-7
D. Higher

Q: How many tropical depression/storm landfalls on the USA will we see this season?

A. 0
B. 1-3
C. 4-7
D. Higher

Bold: My answer
Italic: Possible

B,B,C
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
Quoting Tazmanian:



i rais you 12% and give you 60%


Touche' LOL
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Quoting Tazmanian:



i rais you 12% and give you 60%
Dont get crazy!
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Quoting j2008:

Just because you dont share the same ideas doesnt mean you have the right to tell others what they can and cant say. Respect others thoughts and they will respect yours.


+1
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32024
Quoting muddertracker:
Hey Taz: 12%



i rais you 12% and give you 60%
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Quoting TampaSpin:



Looks like the 850mb vorticity has increased over the past 3hrs.....gotta keep watching this a little longer!
See now you went and put me back on the fence again! LOL
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Quoting Slamguitar:
Hey Taz, 10%. ;)



i raie you 10% and give you 50%
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Hey Taz: 12%
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Lucky for the x90L haters :), we have more T-Waves on the way. Always a shot at development this time of year.

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Quoting scott39:
reverse phyc on a wave! Hmmm it just might work. LOL



it may will see
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Hey Taz, 10%. ;)
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So is anyone keeping track of the Crows to be handed out. I see currently that Taz might be a likely candidate with his confirmed RIP..........LOL
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Quoting Tazmanian:
by saying RIP am helping 90L too devlop
reverse phyc on a wave! Hmmm it just might work. LOL
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928. j2008
Quoting Tazmanian:



you need too stop with this

Just because you dont share the same ideas doesnt mean you have the right to tell others what they can and cant say. Respect others thoughts and they will respect yours.
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
Quoting alfabob:
90L is going to RIP itself all the way to TS status, and maybe beyond.

I think it has a chance, too..even if all the experts don't...that's usually a sign that I am completely wrong, but we'll see..lol
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Quoting extreme236:
If 90L doesn't show any increase in organization tomorrow then I don't foresee much chance for development.



same here
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Looks like the 850mb vorticity has increased over the past 3hrs.....gotta keep watching this a little longer!
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If 90L doesn't show any increase in organization tomorrow then I don't foresee much chance for development.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting Tazmanian:



you need too stop with this


10% :]
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1339
922. yoboi
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I would give 90L a 10% chance of ever developing.



i think ex 90L will produce some rain in the next 24 hrs that my prediction.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's poll time.

Q: How many hurricane landfalls on the USA will we see this season?

A. 0
B. 1-3
C. 4-7
D. Higher

Q: How many major hurricane landfalls on the USA will we see this season?

A. 0
B. 1-3
C. 4-7
D. Higher

Q: How many tropical depression/storm landfalls on the USA will we see this season?

A. 0
B. 1-3
C. 4-7
D. Higher

Bold: My answer
Italic: Possible
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32024
90L this hates that word
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Circulation is decent, best we have seen in days. Convection sucks, but whats new.
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by saying RIP am helping 90L too devlop
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i say that TX11 guy is really becoming annyouing
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Quoting scott39:
The Great yellow circle has to go away before they will let go Taz.



they dont want too yet it go lol
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Quoting TxHurricanedude11:

not 0% sorry mr c 10% imo



you need too stop with this
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Quoting Tazmanian:
x90L is RIP all the way
The Great yellow circle has to go away before they will let go Taz.
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I would give 90L a 10% chance of ever developing.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32024
Quoting FLdewey:


REALLY desperate bloggers
Everyone is itching for some action 'tis all. lol...is there a cream for that?
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Quoting P451:


Taz, you've ripped and hyped 90L like a dozen times each today LOL. Can't make up your mind can ya.




yup thats this me but turst me x90L is RIP
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Quoting Tazmanian:
ex90L is RIP its been RIP whats move on too some in new too track
there's not much else to track though Taz

Few tropical waves, but none of them have a better chance of development at the moment
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.