A heat wave recap; generally quiet tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on July 25, 2011

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Last week's U.S. heat wave has finally subsided, and most of the Northeast will see some cool highs in the 70s today. Unfortunately, the Midwest, and mid-Atlantic will continue to see high temperatures in the 90s for the rest of this week, and the southern Plains will be forced to continue to endure triple-digits.

According to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), 2,100 daily high maximum temperature records have been set so far in July 2011, and 51% of those were set last week. 4,734 daily high minimum temperature records have been set so far this month, and 55% of those were set last week. Here's a breakdown of last week's records for the period July 18 through July 24:

High Maximum:

• 1,076 warmest maximum temperature for the date
• 90 warmest maximum temperature for the month of July
• 56 warmest maximum temperature of all time

High Minimum:

• 2,595 warmest minimum temperature for the date
• 207 warmest minimum temperature for the month of July
• 123 warmest minimum temperature of all time

The number of warm minimum temperatures is especially disturbing, as these tend to have more of an impact on health than the high maximums. When the temperature remains high at night, it prevents the body from being able to recover from the day's heat. According to NOAA, from July 1 through July 19, there were 22 heat-related deaths in the United States. Reuters is reporting that 34 deaths resulted from this heat wave. In an average year, heat remains the number one weather-related killer in this country. In some ways, the overnight low temperatures are the best way to quantify a heat wave, possibly even better than the heat index.


Figure 1. Map of daily high maximum temperature records for the period July 1 through July 25 from NCDC. Red circles without an X denote a broken record; red circles with an X denote a tied record.

Tropical Overview

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L is moving slowly west through the Caribbean near Jamaica. A new burst of convection started this morning, which will undoubtedly produce some heavy rain over southern Cuba and Jamaica. While low-level circulation has remained about the same since late last week, the wave has become top-heavy with increased circulation at higher levels (700-500mb). None of the models (GFS, ECMWF, CMC, NGPS, UKMET) are developing this wave as tracks into the Gulf of Mexico, and they're all in agreement that the path will be toward far southern Texas or northern Mexico, except for the ECMWF deterministic run, which hints that it will take a turn toward the northern Gulf. However, this model hasn't shown actual development from the wave since Tuesday or Wednesday of last week.

NHC has dropped this invest as of Saturday afternoon, but it remains on their radar. They're giving the wave a 0% chance to form over the next 48 hours. Given the recent uptick in mid-level circulation, I'd imagine they're still a little concerned about the potential for this wave to fire-up again once it's in the Gulf, and it will surely be of concern for Cuba as it tracks westward. However, given the lack of model support for almost 7 days in a row now, I'd say this wave has seen its glory come and go.


Figure 2. Visible tropical Atlantic satellite captured at 11:14am EDT on Monday.

Other North Atlantic waves

There are a couple other waves to speak of that have left the coast of Africa in the past few days, one located near 40W and the other closer to Africa, around 30W, which is tangled up in the monsoon trough. The former is expected to take a southerly track, skirting northern South America, and possibly into the Bay of Campeche. Given this track, none of the models are suggesting it will develop. However, tropical cyclones that spin up in the Bay of Campeche generally have a short forecast lead time, so it's something to watch. The latter wave could take a slightly more northern track through the Caribbean islands, and a couple of the models seem to favor this wave for development at the end of their runs.

Tropical wave activity has been lacking so far this season, but climatologically we should see an increase in African easterly waves in August and September.

Angela

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Quoting TampaSpin:



Ok i have picked at Taz enough! Gotta love his humor he adds to the blog. We need him on here! Thanks Taz and march on Brother!



why thank you for your kind words
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I don't think he is the conservative one. When talking about conservation, Stewart is your guy.
R we thinking about the same Stacy??? Must have settled down in his middle age...
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Quoting Tazmanian:



you dont no me vary well yet lol


Good point, always wondered about your broken English. Are you a foreigner Taz? Or do you just have bad grammar. BTW, this is not meant to be mean..im just super curious.
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1003. scott39
Quoting Tazmanian:
i love you guys
back at you Taz!
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Quoting Tazmanian:




no they would t lol they love me too march



Ok i have picked at Taz enough! Gotta love his humor he adds to the blog. We need him on here! Thanks Taz and march on Brother!
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i love you guys
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Quoting scott39:
You should be able to do that in about 5 minutes!! LOL



yup llol
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Quoting Tazmanian:
less then 49 commets too go
You should be able to do that in about 5 minutes!! LOL
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Quoting yoboi:


i live in la no way it will come here.......


That opinion of mine is supported by the BWS Marine Forecasts.
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Quoting CypressJim08:
I am mostly a lurker, and post very infrequently (mostly giving TampaSpin crap about his baseball team) but Taz drives me crazy with his one word posts. I know he has "issues" but how can you not have him poofed...btw congrats on your 100,000 posts that offer nothing to the blog, and weather.

*back to lurking or a ban if it must be*



you dont no me vary well yet lol
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Cape Verde in lock and load mode.
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Quoting muddertracker:
wth? Cangialosi wrote that? The world is comming to an end! I would expect at least 10% from Cangi...
Lol.. was thinking the same thing... but he is still the "young enthusiast"... prolly got looked over thoroughly before distribution.... lol Also Walton did the TWD... wouldn't have let him get TOO enthusiastic... and FINALLY, they prolly like me... waiting to see if the precip comes back after Dmin...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I am mostly a lurker, and post very infrequently (mostly giving TampaSpin crap about his baseball team) but Taz drives me crazy with his one word posts. I know he has "issues" but how can you not have him poofed...btw congrats on your 100,000 posts that offer nothing to the blog, and weather.

*back to lurking or a ban if it must be*
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Quoting TampaSpin:


If everyone would put you on their ignore list, no one would ever see it. Sorta like if a tree falling in the woods that no one ever hears............LOL




no they would t lol they love me too march
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988. yoboi
Quoting MrstormX:


Tropical wave/weak remnant trough 90L will get killed by shear as it approaches Louisiana.


i live in la no way it will come here.......
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2333
Quoting TampaSpin:


Sorry, but if you look at Satellite.....the spin seems to be getting a bit more organized also......still not saying tho that its gonna happen..........i am a major model supporter. The models rarely let me down. They say no Storm!!!!!!!
Whats so d#$% confusing is the NHC has it near 0%! You and some other ones on here that know what thier talking about, say that x90L has a good shot!
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Quoting Tazmanian:
less then 49 commets too go


If everyone would put you on their ignore list, no one would ever see it. Sorta like if a tree falling in the woods that no one ever hears............LOL
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985. j2008
Quoting TampaSpin:



Too bad that 102,000 of them piss people off...........ROFLMAO J/K

LMAO!!!!!
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
8 P.M.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT TO MOVE OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST AND WILL LIKELY BE ADDED ON THE NEXT ANALYSIS.

TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY NEAR 29W HAS BEEN DROPPED ON THE SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 1800 UTC. THIS WAS BASED ON VARIED SOURCES OF DATA INCLUDED SAL ANALYSIS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND MODEL DATA THAT ALL POINT TO THE CONCLUSION THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION SEEN ALONG THE ITCZ IN THIS LOCATION IS NOT INFLUENCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE...BUT LIKELY A WIND SURGE ALONG THE ITCZ AREA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TRPCL ATLC ALONG 18N41W TO 10N43W MOVING W 10-15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS...WHICH IS ALSO INDICATED BY AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM EARLIER TODAY.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 41W-43W.

TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 24N78W TO 17N80W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE WATERS N OF CUBA. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 74W-85W AFFECTING JAMAICA AND MUCH OF CUBA. A CLUSTER OF SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO ACROSS HAITI. EXPECT CONTINUED HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER CUBA AND SPREAD ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND POSSIBLY S FLORIDA AS THE WAVE MOVES WWD.
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Quoting yoboi:


what's your opinion in 61 hrs?


Tropical wave/weak remnant trough 90L will get killed by shear as it approaches Louisiana.
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Quoting TxHurricanedude11:

well he aint good with this one 5-10 kts shear and he says it ain't favorable got to the drawing board again c


There is only a small circle of 5-10 knot shear over the west of the system. It's 20+ knots over the rest.

Anyway, enough arguing with trolls.
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980. yoboi
Quoting sarahjola:

i've been reading the blog since i posted my first comment and i have to ask, why do some think that ex90l is not better organized? i ask in all due respect as i have not been on since this morning. i am just wondering because this morning 90l was nothing but a cloud and now it has spin and thunderstorms. it seems a heck of a lot different than it did this morning. tia


because if you look all day at nothing something seems to appear people logic 101
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2333
Quoting TampaSpin:



Too bad that 102,000 of them piss people off...........ROFLMAO J/K



hi tamp i no your happy for me
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It's poll time.

Q: How many hurricane landfalls on the USA will we see this season?

A. 0
B. 1-3
C. 4-7
D. Higher

Q: How many major hurricane landfalls on the USA will we see this season?

A. 0
B. 1-3
C. 4-7
D. Higher

Q: How many tropical depression/storm landfalls on the USA will we see this season?

A. 0
B. 1-3
C. 4-7
D. Higher

Bold: My answer
Italic: Possible


B
B
A
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976. MTWX
Sometime you got to just sit back and enjoy the ride....
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Quoting Tazmanian:
YAY am all most at 103,000 commets



Too bad that 102,000 of them piss people off...........ROFLMAO J/K
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Quoting MrstormX:


Congrats, lets see you hit the magic number tonight amigo.




i think i will
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less then 49 commets too go
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Quoting Tazmanian:
YAY am all most at 103,000 commets


Congrats, lets see you hit the magic number tonight amigo.
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Quoting SuperYooper:


Can't believe I'm answering this because I hang up on telemarketers.

A
A
B

Am I really that bored?

Yes I am.

BTW, if you drink heavily, taz becomes understandable. Trust me on this.



lol ok
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Quoting sarahjola:
wow! ex90l is really getting its act together! i have to say i'm impressed with all you regulars. you all called it before any news or weather channel. good job! my hats off to ya:)

i've been reading the blog since i posted my first comment and i have to ask, why do some think that ex90l is not better organized? i ask in all due respect as i have not been on since this morning. i am just wondering because this morning 90l was nothing but a cloud and now it has spin and thunderstorms. it seems a heck of a lot different than it did this morning. tia
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969. yoboi
Quoting MrstormX:
I kinda like x-90L, decent cyclonic turning. Anything can form in shear, is just takes the right amount of persistence. 20% chance of development in the next 64 hours.


what's your opinion in 61 hrs?
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2333
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It's poll time.

Q: How many hurricane landfalls on the USA will we see this season?

A. 0
B. 1-3
C. 4-7
D. Higher

Q: How many major hurricane landfalls on the USA will we see this season?

A. 0
B. 1-3
C. 4-7
D. Higher

Q: How many tropical depression/storm landfalls on the USA will we see this season?

A. 0
B. 1-3
C. 4-7
D. Higher

Bold: My answer
Italic: Possible


Can't believe I'm answering this because I hang up on telemarketers.

A
A
B

Am I really that bored?

Yes I am.

BTW, if you drink heavily, taz becomes understandable. Trust me on this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
YAY am all most at 103,000 commets
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Quoting scott39:
See now you went and put me back on the fence again! LOL


Sorry, but if you look at Satellite.....the spin seems to be getting a bit more organized also......still not saying tho that its gonna happen..........i am a major model supporter. The models rarely let me down. They say no Storm!!!!!!!
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Quoting scott39:
Why do some people seem to get thier feelings hurt if If I say RIP 90L. It doesnt mean crap!! LOL


Not really sure why some people are like that but sometimes we have to take the Bad with very little Good, if you know what I'm saying....


Taco :o)
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t's poll time.

Q: How many hurricane landfalls on the USA will we see this season?

A. 0
B. 1-3
C. 4-7
D. Higher

Q: How many major hurricane landfalls on the USA will we see this season?

A. 0
B. 1-3
C. 4-7
D. Higher

Q: How many tropical depression/storm landfalls on the USA will we see this season?

A. 0
B. 1-3
C. 4-7
D. Higher

Bold: My answer
Italic: Possible




D D and D
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I kinda like x-90L, decent cyclonic turning. Anything can form in shear, is just takes the right amount of persistence. 20% chance of development in the next 64 hours.
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Quoting scott39:
Why do some people seem to get thier feelings hurt if If I say RIP 90L. It doesnt mean crap!! LOL


Because we've all been driven insane by it...
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Quoting scott39:
Why do some people seem to get thier feelings hurt if If I say RIP 90L. It doesnt mean crap!! LOL

lol...*cleans tea off screen with shirt*
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2337
Quoting muddertracker:

rapid infrared progress?
Rapid Intensification Potential?
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, Taz... I prefer stirfry myself, with lots of veggies and Szechuan sauce to cover the gamey taste... lol



oder comeing right about that i send you the bill
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Quoting muddertracker:
Hey Taz: 12%


Can't.. comprehend.... non-increment.. of 10.. *Head explodes*
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
Quoting alfabob:

That's SST, I think the ocean is broken.



lol
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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