A heat wave recap; generally quiet tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on July 25, 2011

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Last week's U.S. heat wave has finally subsided, and most of the Northeast will see some cool highs in the 70s today. Unfortunately, the Midwest, and mid-Atlantic will continue to see high temperatures in the 90s for the rest of this week, and the southern Plains will be forced to continue to endure triple-digits.

According to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), 2,100 daily high maximum temperature records have been set so far in July 2011, and 51% of those were set last week. 4,734 daily high minimum temperature records have been set so far this month, and 55% of those were set last week. Here's a breakdown of last week's records for the period July 18 through July 24:

High Maximum:

• 1,076 warmest maximum temperature for the date
• 90 warmest maximum temperature for the month of July
• 56 warmest maximum temperature of all time

High Minimum:

• 2,595 warmest minimum temperature for the date
• 207 warmest minimum temperature for the month of July
• 123 warmest minimum temperature of all time

The number of warm minimum temperatures is especially disturbing, as these tend to have more of an impact on health than the high maximums. When the temperature remains high at night, it prevents the body from being able to recover from the day's heat. According to NOAA, from July 1 through July 19, there were 22 heat-related deaths in the United States. Reuters is reporting that 34 deaths resulted from this heat wave. In an average year, heat remains the number one weather-related killer in this country. In some ways, the overnight low temperatures are the best way to quantify a heat wave, possibly even better than the heat index.


Figure 1. Map of daily high maximum temperature records for the period July 1 through July 25 from NCDC. Red circles without an X denote a broken record; red circles with an X denote a tied record.

Tropical Overview

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L is moving slowly west through the Caribbean near Jamaica. A new burst of convection started this morning, which will undoubtedly produce some heavy rain over southern Cuba and Jamaica. While low-level circulation has remained about the same since late last week, the wave has become top-heavy with increased circulation at higher levels (700-500mb). None of the models (GFS, ECMWF, CMC, NGPS, UKMET) are developing this wave as tracks into the Gulf of Mexico, and they're all in agreement that the path will be toward far southern Texas or northern Mexico, except for the ECMWF deterministic run, which hints that it will take a turn toward the northern Gulf. However, this model hasn't shown actual development from the wave since Tuesday or Wednesday of last week.

NHC has dropped this invest as of Saturday afternoon, but it remains on their radar. They're giving the wave a 0% chance to form over the next 48 hours. Given the recent uptick in mid-level circulation, I'd imagine they're still a little concerned about the potential for this wave to fire-up again once it's in the Gulf, and it will surely be of concern for Cuba as it tracks westward. However, given the lack of model support for almost 7 days in a row now, I'd say this wave has seen its glory come and go.


Figure 2. Visible tropical Atlantic satellite captured at 11:14am EDT on Monday.

Other North Atlantic waves

There are a couple other waves to speak of that have left the coast of Africa in the past few days, one located near 40W and the other closer to Africa, around 30W, which is tangled up in the monsoon trough. The former is expected to take a southerly track, skirting northern South America, and possibly into the Bay of Campeche. Given this track, none of the models are suggesting it will develop. However, tropical cyclones that spin up in the Bay of Campeche generally have a short forecast lead time, so it's something to watch. The latter wave could take a slightly more northern track through the Caribbean islands, and a couple of the models seem to favor this wave for development at the end of their runs.

Tropical wave activity has been lacking so far this season, but climatologically we should see an increase in African easterly waves in August and September.

Angela

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Quoting KoritheMan:


zzzzzz


Wake up Kori this is no time to be sleeping!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31884
Quoting Mikla:
Shear: While it is in somewhat better upper shear right now, there is 20kts of shear north and south that over the last 12 hours has been moving to increase shear in its path. Mid shear is still a factor and looks to be increasing in the path as well.

Thunderstorms: They have been sporatic and all over the place, not localized to any one area that can help the heat engine needed to create good inflow.

Closed Circulation: While there appears to be some mid circulation, there is no indication of circulation at the surface.

Land: Land interaction interupts the whole process by preventing inflow and providing warm ocean surface.

Outflow: There appears to be marginal venting (divergence) and no anti-cyclone.

Just IMHO...


thanks
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Hold off on the obituary; ATCF just re-invested 90L (note the pressure is down to 1011):

AL, 90, 2011072600, , BEST, 0, 192N, 798W, 25, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,


zzzzzz
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 573 Comments: 20371
i want some crow plzs lots of them
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Quoting Mikla:
Shear: While it is in somewhat better upper shear right now, there is 20kts of shear north and south that over the last 12 hours has been moving to increase shear in its path. Mid shear is still a factor and looks to be increasing in the path as well.

Thunderstorms: They have been sporatic and all over the place, not localized to any one area that can help the heat engine needed to create good inflow.

Closed Circulation: While there appears to be some mid circulation, there is no indication of circulation at the surface.

Land: Land interaction interupts the whole process by preventing inflow and providing warm ocean surface.

Outflow: There appears to be marginal venting (divergence) and no anti-cyclone.

Just IMHO...



This COMPLETELY sums up my opinion.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Hold off on the obituary; ATCF just re-invested 90L (note the pressure is down to 1011):

AL, 90, 2011072600, , BEST, 0, 192N, 798W, 25, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,


See my logic there. I knew as soon as I declared it dead, it would come back.

Oh the irony.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31884
1049. Patrap
90L re-loaded ATCF

GOES-13 GOM/Caribbean Low Cloud Product Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
Quoting Neapolitan:
Hold off on the obituary; ATCF just re-invested 90L:

AL, 90, 2011072600, , BEST, 0, 192N, 798W, 25, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,



nevere mine lol
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Quoting scott39:
Are you in agreement with the NHC right now?


Yes. I'm quite confident at this point that it will not develop. So much so that I'm taking a much needed break from the blogging scene until things become interesting (as in, I'm on a temporary hiatus from writing blog updates).
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 573 Comments: 20371
Quoting stormpetrol:
personally I have seen it go from 0-60% before though!


You're talking about Invest 95L from last season, just south of Louisiana. IMO, that was a mistake. Not to mention, Stewart made it.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31884
1045. Mikla
Shear: While it is in somewhat better upper shear right now, there is 20kts of shear north and south that over the last 12 hours has been moving to increase shear in its path. Mid shear is still a factor and looks to be increasing in the path as well.

Thunderstorms: They have been sporatic and all over the place, not localized to any one area that can help the heat engine needed to create good inflow.

Closed Circulation: While there appears to be some mid circulation, there is no indication of circulation at the surface.

Land: Land interaction interupts the whole process by preventing inflow and providing warm ocean surface.

Outflow: There appears to be marginal venting (divergence) and no anti-cyclone.

Just IMHO...

Quoting sarahjola:

i've been reading the blog since i posted my first comment and i have to ask, why do some think that ex90l is not better organized? i ask in all due respect as i have not been on since this morning. i am just wondering because this morning 90l was nothing but a cloud and now it has spin and thunderstorms. it seems a heck of a lot different than it did this morning. tia
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Hold off on the obituary; ATCF just re-invested 90L (note the pressure is down to 1011):

AL, 90, 2011072600, , BEST, 0, 192N, 798W, 25, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
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personally I have seen it go from 0-60% before though!
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1041. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
Quoting TampaSpin:


That ain't even right.......ya my team is a struggling fool right now. NO FREAKING HITTING!


It could be worse..trust me...I'm a *cough* Astros fan *groan*
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1039. j2008
Quoting MrstormX:


Now it really is going to form....yikes.

DONSTER THE MONSTER must form!!! If it isnt out of this wave it will be the next or the next.
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
Quoting lucreto:
I have been here 2 years and have less than 100 comments but all my comments are pure golden, and generally rank among the top 3.5% of comments posted on this site (although this comment would not fall within that category obviously).

.

EDIT: Sorry, I read your comment wrong. Again, Sorry!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31884
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:

same 2 u



good one
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Quoting scott39:
Whats so d#$% confusing is the NHC has it near 0%! You and some other ones on here that know what thier talking about, say that x90L has a good shot!



I am not saying it has a good shot. But, i am not turning my eyes away from it. I would personally say and give it a better chance once it reaches the very reaches of the NW Caribbean. Have been saying that is the best shot when it reaches there the Shear in the ENTIRE area may be much lower.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


That ain't even right.......ya my team is a struggling fool right now. NO FREAKING HITTING!


Terrible stadium, little to no fan support (you are obviously not one of them), but always a good farm.

BTW Taz, I really don't want to come across mean because I am sure you are a great guy. Not really a fan of pointless entries that's all.

EX90L will need to really ramp up tonight or it will just be a rainmaker. I am sure some of the folks on in Texas will be happy campers in a few days either way :)
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Quoting stormpetrol:
near 0% , well I guess they're right!



yes the nhc made the right call
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'll probably regret it later, but I'm going to say it.

RIP ex-90L.


So Jeff is on vaca and you poofed former 90L. Here we go!
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near 0% , well I guess they're right!
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Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
that was a joke



no he was not joking
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what track TD 10W and TD11W for now
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Quoting TampaSpin:


That ain't even right.......ya my team is a struggling fool right now. NO FREAKING HITTING!


I'm a Marlins fan, so I feel your pain. Just not sure what happened in June. I think we got the horses to compete with the Braves but something just wasn't right with the team and they took themselves out of the race for the Wild Card.
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1025. scott39
Quoting KoritheMan:


Not to mention the GFS keeps 20-30 kt of upper flow over the central and western Gulf for the next 72 hours. Cangialosi made the right conclusion.
Are you in agreement with the NHC right now?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6752
Quoting KoritheMan:


Not to mention the GFS keeps 20-30 kt of upper flow over the central and western Gulf for the next 72 hours. Cangialosi made the right conclusion.


Yup, I concur.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
R we thinking about the same Stacy??? Must have settled down in his middle age...


Haha, yeah. Kimberlain is a conservative forecaster. Stewart is probably the most aggressive in the crew.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 573 Comments: 20371
Quoting RitaEvac:
This says it all

Link
looks very nice
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Not to mention the GFS keeps 20-30 kt of upper flow over the central and western Gulf for the next 72 hours. Cangialosi made the right conclusion.


yup you are right
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'll probably regret it later, but I'm going to say it.

RIP ex-90L.


Now it really is going to form....yikes.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'll probably regret it later, but I'm going to say it.

RIP ex-90L.



good for you
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Quoting watchingnva:
Most of tazs comments are him repeating himself in his own blog..great accomplishment...lol...and ex 90l doesn't care what you think its going to do...lol



why thanks
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I'll probably regret it later, but I'm going to say it.

RIP ex-90L.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31884
1016. scott39
Tampa post 987 plz
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6752
Most of tazs comments are him repeating himself in his own blog..great accomplishment...lol...and ex 90l doesn't care what you think its going to do...lol
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Quoting CypressJim08:
I am mostly a lurker, and post very infrequently (mostly giving TampaSpin crap about his baseball team) but Taz drives me crazy with his one word posts. I know he has "issues" but how can you not have him poofed...btw congrats on your 100,000 posts that offer nothing to the blog, and weather.

*back to lurking or a ban if it must be*


That ain't even right.......ya my team is a struggling fool right now. NO FREAKING HITTING!
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


There is only a small circle of 5-10 knot shear over the west of the system. It's 20 knots over the rest.

Anyway, enough arguing with trolls.


Not to mention the GFS keeps 20-30 kt of upper flow over the central and western Gulf for the next 72 hours. Cangialosi made the right conclusion.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 573 Comments: 20371
Quoting MrstormX:


Good point, always wondered about your broken English. Are you a foreigner Taz? Or do you just have bad grammar. BTW, this is not meant to be mean..im just super curious.



dont worry about it lol
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Quoting yoboi:


because if you look all day at nothing something seems to appear people logic 101

well, i have not been on since this morning and it looks like something can come of this so i don't really get what you mean by "if you look at something long enough you see soemthing". did it get really organized earlier and not its dying? i am only asking because i have not been on all day and last i saw it was a poofy cloud and now its got some spin and thunderstorms. tia
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1009. j2008
Quoting BahaHurican:
Lol.. was thinking the same thing... but he is still the "young enthusiast"... prolly got looked over thoroughly before distribution.... lol Also Walton did the TWD... wouldn't have let him get TOO enthusiastic... and FINALLY, they prolly like me... waiting to see if the precip comes back after Dmin...

If its still doing good after Dmin then they will have to raise the probibility of formation to at least 10%.
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
1007. yoboi
Quoting MrstormX:


That opinion of mine is supported by the BWS Marine Forecasts.


does BWS stand for being wrong severly??
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Quoting TampaSpin:



Ok i have picked at Taz enough! Gotta love his humor he adds to the blog. We need him on here! Thanks Taz and march on Brother!



why thank you for your kind words
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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