A heat wave recap; generally quiet tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on July 25, 2011

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Last week's U.S. heat wave has finally subsided, and most of the Northeast will see some cool highs in the 70s today. Unfortunately, the Midwest, and mid-Atlantic will continue to see high temperatures in the 90s for the rest of this week, and the southern Plains will be forced to continue to endure triple-digits.

According to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), 2,100 daily high maximum temperature records have been set so far in July 2011, and 51% of those were set last week. 4,734 daily high minimum temperature records have been set so far this month, and 55% of those were set last week. Here's a breakdown of last week's records for the period July 18 through July 24:

High Maximum:

• 1,076 warmest maximum temperature for the date
• 90 warmest maximum temperature for the month of July
• 56 warmest maximum temperature of all time

High Minimum:

• 2,595 warmest minimum temperature for the date
• 207 warmest minimum temperature for the month of July
• 123 warmest minimum temperature of all time

The number of warm minimum temperatures is especially disturbing, as these tend to have more of an impact on health than the high maximums. When the temperature remains high at night, it prevents the body from being able to recover from the day's heat. According to NOAA, from July 1 through July 19, there were 22 heat-related deaths in the United States. Reuters is reporting that 34 deaths resulted from this heat wave. In an average year, heat remains the number one weather-related killer in this country. In some ways, the overnight low temperatures are the best way to quantify a heat wave, possibly even better than the heat index.


Figure 1. Map of daily high maximum temperature records for the period July 1 through July 25 from NCDC. Red circles without an X denote a broken record; red circles with an X denote a tied record.

Tropical Overview

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L is moving slowly west through the Caribbean near Jamaica. A new burst of convection started this morning, which will undoubtedly produce some heavy rain over southern Cuba and Jamaica. While low-level circulation has remained about the same since late last week, the wave has become top-heavy with increased circulation at higher levels (700-500mb). None of the models (GFS, ECMWF, CMC, NGPS, UKMET) are developing this wave as tracks into the Gulf of Mexico, and they're all in agreement that the path will be toward far southern Texas or northern Mexico, except for the ECMWF deterministic run, which hints that it will take a turn toward the northern Gulf. However, this model hasn't shown actual development from the wave since Tuesday or Wednesday of last week.

NHC has dropped this invest as of Saturday afternoon, but it remains on their radar. They're giving the wave a 0% chance to form over the next 48 hours. Given the recent uptick in mid-level circulation, I'd imagine they're still a little concerned about the potential for this wave to fire-up again once it's in the Gulf, and it will surely be of concern for Cuba as it tracks westward. However, given the lack of model support for almost 7 days in a row now, I'd say this wave has seen its glory come and go.


Figure 2. Visible tropical Atlantic satellite captured at 11:14am EDT on Monday.

Other North Atlantic waves

There are a couple other waves to speak of that have left the coast of Africa in the past few days, one located near 40W and the other closer to Africa, around 30W, which is tangled up in the monsoon trough. The former is expected to take a southerly track, skirting northern South America, and possibly into the Bay of Campeche. Given this track, none of the models are suggesting it will develop. However, tropical cyclones that spin up in the Bay of Campeche generally have a short forecast lead time, so it's something to watch. The latter wave could take a slightly more northern track through the Caribbean islands, and a couple of the models seem to favor this wave for development at the end of their runs.

Tropical wave activity has been lacking so far this season, but climatologically we should see an increase in African easterly waves in August and September.

Angela

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Wonder why the 8:00 TWO kept 0% if it was reactivated minutes later, are they thinking perhaps beyond 48 hours?
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Quoting angelafritz:
Update from NHC - a reinstating of NHC 90L. The ECMWF 12z deterministic run increases the wave's vorticity as it moves across the Gulf. Compared to the past couple of days' runs, this is a big swing. Also, this run is now agreeing with the rest of the models on track: southern Texas/northern Mexico. I saw some folks mentioning that NGPS develops the wave? Im not seeing that, but it does agree with the 12z EC run that the vorticity could stay coherent. Looks like EC and NGPS are this wave's biggest fans right now.

Hmm. I swear this thing was dead. But thanks updating on that, my computer doesn't wanna load the model runs!! >_>
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Quoting Tazmanian:



want too see me in a drass


You wouldn't... lol
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Quoting Tazmanian:



90L is back jack


Haha, indeed.

Anyway, off to bed. Night Taz, make sure number 103000 doesn't involve mention of crow.
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Quoting angelafritz:
If 90L does develop, it will make a great case study for the models, as they've all but dropped the wave for almost a week now, despite relatively favorable atmospheric conditions. I've seen waves develop in way worse conditions than this little guy is taking on right now.



Do you see any sign of a Surface low forming as i believe is happening or am i wrong!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1101. scott39
Is it safe to say that the NHC relies mostly on module support?
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1100. emcf30
Quoting Neapolitan:
Hold off on the obituary; ATCF just re-invested 90L (note the pressure is down to 1011):

AL, 90, 2011072600, , BEST, 0, 192N, 798W, 25, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,


I'm Back
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1099. Patrap
90L is "puttin on Da Ritz"?

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089

1091. angelafritz (Admin) 7:23 PM CDT on July 25, 2011
Agreed, thanks
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Sorry for the "digest post", pple... didn't want to have to keep coming back the the page I missed while on dinner break....
Quoting Tazmanian:



oder comeing right about that i send you the bill
Taz, you are soooo on tonight..... lololololol....

Quoting muddertracker:

lol...*cleans tea off screen with shirt*
I'll bet ur tea is iced, but mine is better, 'cause I have a/c to make the warmth soothing... lol

Quoting sarahjola:

i've been reading the blog since i posted my first comment and i have to ask, why do some think that ex90l is not better organized? i ask in all due respect as i have not been on since this morning. i am just wondering because this morning 90l was nothing but a cloud and now it has spin and thunderstorms. it seems a heck of a lot different than it did this morning. tia
It "looks" different, but until we see some persistence with this, I am with the pple who don't see much difference... IMO, 90L is like "the invest who cried wolf"...

Quoting TampaSpin:



Too bad that 102,000 of them piss people off...........ROFLMAO J/K
But the other 1000 are priceless... lol...

Quoting scott39:
Whats so d#$% confusing is the NHC has it near 0%! You and some other ones on here that know what thier talking about, say that x90L has a good shot!
I think NHC is looking at conditions in the GoM that are not likely to change much, plus x90L's track record of ... well... no surface low.

Quoting CypressJim08:
I am mostly a lurker, and post very infrequently (mostly giving TampaSpin crap about his baseball team) but Taz drives me crazy with his one word posts. I know he has "issues" but how can you not have him poofed...btw congrats on your 100,000 posts that offer nothing to the blog, and weather.

*back to lurking or a ban if it must be*
I know Taz may come across wrong to the more... "dicty" among us, but under the infelicious spelling is a good wx analysis mind. Some of us have been around long enough to learn to respect, and yes, sometimes, tolerate him. But then the true essence of this blog is to learn tolerance... one of the best things about this place.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22563
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This also means that the NHC 2AM TWO will not feature Near 0%.

yes usually when something like this happens they up the chances at the next two
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90L is going to drive us insane! At least, the ones that haven't been driven that far yet.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32511
1091. angelafritz (Admin)
If 90L does develop, it will make a great case study for the models, as they've all but dropped the wave for almost a week now, despite relatively favorable atmospheric conditions. I've seen waves develop in way worse conditions than this little guy is taking on right now.
*Sigh*

I give up, 90L. We'll see what happens, I still don't buy it.
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ships develop it still
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1088. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
XX/INV/90L
MARK
20.81N/78.21W
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This also means that the NHC 2AM TWO will not feature Near 0%.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32511
Quoting lucreto:
I have been here 2 years and have less than 100 comments but all my comments are pure golden, and generally rank among the top 3.5% of comments posted on this site (although this comment would not fall within that category obviously).


Keep your head up, we all make mistakes. Not everyone can be perfect.
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Nice to see that Angela is blogging with the regulars, something that Dr. Master's would never think about doing. Thank god we have Levi :)
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Quoting angelafritz:
Update from NHC - a reinstating of NHC 90L. The ECMWF 12z deterministic run increases the wave's vorticity as it moves across the Gulf. Compared to the past couple of days' runs, this is a big swing. Also, this run is now agreeing with the rest of the models on track: southern Texas/northern Mexico. I saw some folks mentioning that NGPS develops the wave? Im not seeing that, but it does agree with the 12z EC run that the vorticity could stay coherent. Looks like EC and NGPS are this wave's biggest fans right now.




Buda Boom Badda Bang! Thanks!!!!!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hey, guess what? We get model runs again!

when they comin out!?
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Taz adds quite a bit of humor to this blog, thank you taz for being yourself.
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1079. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
WHXX01 KWBC 260012

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0012 UTC TUE JUL 26 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902011) 20110726 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110726 0000 110726 1200 110727 0000 110727 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 19.2N 79.8W 20.0N 82.6W 20.7N 84.8W 21.3N 86.8W

BAMD 19.2N 79.8W 19.8N 81.5W 20.4N 83.1W 21.0N 84.8W

BAMM 19.2N 79.8W 19.9N 82.1W 20.5N 84.0W 21.1N 85.8W

LBAR 19.2N 79.8W 19.9N 82.1W 20.9N 84.3W 21.8N 86.6W

SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 34KTS 39KTS

DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 34KTS 39KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110728 0000 110729 0000 110730 0000 110731 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 22.2N 88.5W 24.4N 92.4W 26.4N 96.6W 28.1N 101.0W

BAMD 21.5N 86.7W 22.7N 91.1W 23.6N 96.0W 24.3N 101.3W

BAMM 21.8N 87.6W 23.5N 91.8W 25.1N 96.7W 26.5N 101.7W

LBAR 22.9N 88.9W 25.9N 93.3W 28.7N 96.7W 30.6N 99.7W

SHIP 46KTS 56KTS 67KTS 74KTS

DSHP 46KTS 56KTS 67KTS 32KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 19.2N LONCUR = 79.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT

LATM12 = 18.6N LONM12 = 77.0W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 14KT

LATM24 = 18.1N LONM24 = 73.8W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
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1078. scott39
Quoting Tazmanian:
i want some crow plzs lots of them
I held out for so long, but you and the NHC got to me! Move over so I can eat a dad gum CROW!!
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Hey, guess what? We get model runs again!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32511
1076. P451
Quoting Neapolitan:
Hold off on the obituary; ATCF just re-invested 90L (note the pressure is down to 1011):

AL, 90, 2011072600, , BEST, 0, 192N, 798W, 25, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,


And Nea rolls in with the goodies.

:)


Well, until tomorrow morning, to see if 90L has decided to take advantage of DMax - or if it will continue it's history of feasting off of day time heating and then waning over night.

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Quoting xcool:
lmaoo 90L IS BACK

I hope a certain zat absolutely strangles on worc.
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new tweet

@wunderground
Weather Underground
Watching area near 19.2N 79.8W for tropical development [Invest 90]: winds 29 mph moving W at 13 mph
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
Hold off on the obituary; ATCF just re-invested 90L (note the pressure is down to 1011):

AL, 90, 2011072600, , BEST, 0, 192N, 798W, 25, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

Why must they do this to us?
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Quoting scott39:
Dont you stop now Kori, we have an invest again!


Bah, I'd like to see the 0z run of the GFS and ECMWF come on board with this before I take it seriously again.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 597 Comments: 21048
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


See my logic there. I knew as soon as I declared it dead, it would come back.

Oh the irony.


Haha - like Pat said earlier: Jeffrey is on vacation. Beware the Ides of Holiday!!!
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I don't look at the present condition of old 90L but, what the overall pic of its presentation and what the possibility that is in front of it 72hrs out when it reaches the Western Tip of Cuba. Keep in mind that the 0% from the NHC is for the possibility of Tropical Depression development in 48hrs. Zero percent is 100% correct. But, 0% in 72 hours might not be correct? Just sayn!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1066. scott39
Quoting KoritheMan:


zzzzzz
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yes. I'm quite confident at this point that it will not develop. So much so that I'm taking a much needed break from the blogging scene until things become interesting (as in, I'm on a temporary hiatus from writing blog updates).
Dont you stop now Kori, we have an invest again!
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Quoting angelafritz:
Update from NHC - a reinstating of NHC 90L. The ECMWF 12z deterministic run increases the wave's vorticity as it moves across the Gulf. Compared to the past couple of days' runs, this is a big swing. Also, this run is now agreeing with the rest of the models on track: southern Texas/northern Mexico. I saw some folks mentioning that NGPS develops the wave? Im not seeing that, but it does agree with the 12z EC run that the vorticity could stay coherent. Looks like EC and NGPS are this wave's biggest fans right now.


18z GFS also seems to develop it.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 597 Comments: 21048
1064. txjac
Thanks Angie ...nice to see you posting with us!
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1063. j2008
Quoting angelafritz:
Update from NHC - a reinstating of NHC 90L. The ECMWF 12z deterministic run increases the wave's vorticity as it moves across the Gulf. Compared to the past couple of days' runs, this is a big swing. Also, this run is now agreeing with the rest of the models on track: southern Texas/northern Mexico. I saw some folks mentioning that NGPS develops the wave? Im not seeing that, but it does agree with the 12z EC run that the vorticity could stay coherent. Looks like EC and NGPS are this wave's biggest fans right now.

Thanks for the update. It looks like 90L has come back to life!!
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1062. xcool
lmaoo 90L IS BACK
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It's back, but not for long.

Since the tropics will be quiet for a while, I think this is a good time for a vacation. Doubt I'll be on the blog too much for a few weeks.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107260009
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
Quoting Tazmanian:
i love you guys


Taz - you are a devil. LOL - you OK with me bud.
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had a feeling they would reactive it when we saw that glich earlier.
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1058. angelafritz (Admin)
Update from NHC - a reinstating of NHC 90L. The ECMWF 12z deterministic run increases the wave's vorticity as it moves across the Gulf. Compared to the past couple of days' runs, this is a big swing. Also, this run is now agreeing with the rest of the models on track: southern Texas/northern Mexico. I saw some folks mentioning that NGPS develops the wave? Im not seeing that, but it does agree with the 12z EC run that the vorticity could stay coherent. Looks like EC and NGPS are this wave's biggest fans right now.
Quoting KoritheMan:


zzzzzz


Wake up Kori this is no time to be sleeping!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32511

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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