A heat wave recap; generally quiet tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on July 25, 2011

Share this Blog
6
+

Last week's U.S. heat wave has finally subsided, and most of the Northeast will see some cool highs in the 70s today. Unfortunately, the Midwest, and mid-Atlantic will continue to see high temperatures in the 90s for the rest of this week, and the southern Plains will be forced to continue to endure triple-digits.

According to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), 2,100 daily high maximum temperature records have been set so far in July 2011, and 51% of those were set last week. 4,734 daily high minimum temperature records have been set so far this month, and 55% of those were set last week. Here's a breakdown of last week's records for the period July 18 through July 24:

High Maximum:

• 1,076 warmest maximum temperature for the date
• 90 warmest maximum temperature for the month of July
• 56 warmest maximum temperature of all time

High Minimum:

• 2,595 warmest minimum temperature for the date
• 207 warmest minimum temperature for the month of July
• 123 warmest minimum temperature of all time

The number of warm minimum temperatures is especially disturbing, as these tend to have more of an impact on health than the high maximums. When the temperature remains high at night, it prevents the body from being able to recover from the day's heat. According to NOAA, from July 1 through July 19, there were 22 heat-related deaths in the United States. Reuters is reporting that 34 deaths resulted from this heat wave. In an average year, heat remains the number one weather-related killer in this country. In some ways, the overnight low temperatures are the best way to quantify a heat wave, possibly even better than the heat index.


Figure 1. Map of daily high maximum temperature records for the period July 1 through July 25 from NCDC. Red circles without an X denote a broken record; red circles with an X denote a tied record.

Tropical Overview

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L is moving slowly west through the Caribbean near Jamaica. A new burst of convection started this morning, which will undoubtedly produce some heavy rain over southern Cuba and Jamaica. While low-level circulation has remained about the same since late last week, the wave has become top-heavy with increased circulation at higher levels (700-500mb). None of the models (GFS, ECMWF, CMC, NGPS, UKMET) are developing this wave as tracks into the Gulf of Mexico, and they're all in agreement that the path will be toward far southern Texas or northern Mexico, except for the ECMWF deterministic run, which hints that it will take a turn toward the northern Gulf. However, this model hasn't shown actual development from the wave since Tuesday or Wednesday of last week.

NHC has dropped this invest as of Saturday afternoon, but it remains on their radar. They're giving the wave a 0% chance to form over the next 48 hours. Given the recent uptick in mid-level circulation, I'd imagine they're still a little concerned about the potential for this wave to fire-up again once it's in the Gulf, and it will surely be of concern for Cuba as it tracks westward. However, given the lack of model support for almost 7 days in a row now, I'd say this wave has seen its glory come and go.


Figure 2. Visible tropical Atlantic satellite captured at 11:14am EDT on Monday.

Other North Atlantic waves

There are a couple other waves to speak of that have left the coast of Africa in the past few days, one located near 40W and the other closer to Africa, around 30W, which is tangled up in the monsoon trough. The former is expected to take a southerly track, skirting northern South America, and possibly into the Bay of Campeche. Given this track, none of the models are suggesting it will develop. However, tropical cyclones that spin up in the Bay of Campeche generally have a short forecast lead time, so it's something to watch. The latter wave could take a slightly more northern track through the Caribbean islands, and a couple of the models seem to favor this wave for development at the end of their runs.

Tropical wave activity has been lacking so far this season, but climatologically we should see an increase in African easterly waves in August and September.

Angela

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1156 - 1106

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47Blog Index

1156. louisianaboy444
12:40 AM GMT on July 26, 2011
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yes. I'm quite confident at this point that it will not develop. So much so that I'm taking a much needed break from the blogging scene until things become interesting (as in, I'm on a temporary hiatus from writing blog updates).


As i said earlier dont write it off just yet...I believe it may have a good night tonight
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1339
1155. prcane4you
12:39 AM GMT on July 26, 2011
The entire day talking about ups & downs of 90L.I think that's a record for just a wave.A future hurricane may cause this blog to blow up.
Member Since: June 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 760
1154. stormwatcherCI
12:39 AM GMT on July 26, 2011
Quoting emcf30:


Angela, It's good having interaction from the admin side of the blog from time to time. I for one welcome your professional input. Thanks
+1 You took the words right out of my mouth.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
1153. KoritheMan
12:38 AM GMT on July 26, 2011
Dammit, Scott. I'm gonna blog after all, in part thanks to your coaxing. Are you happy? :P
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
1152. mcluvincane
12:38 AM GMT on July 26, 2011
Quoting neutralenso:
Everyone Calm Down. I hate guessing and im not going to but if you people would like to:
A: mexico
B: texas
Anybody?


C - south Texas
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1338
1151. BahaHurican
12:38 AM GMT on July 26, 2011
Quoting muddertracker:


It could be worse..trust me...I'm a *cough* Astros fan *groan*
Does Cincinnati still have a team??? Definitely been following Twaves more than my "beloved" Reds.... [cough] even ex-Ls like this one...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
1150. 7544
looks like so fla gets the rain that was canceled due ti 9ol ex being dead now alive agin stroms buliding as we blog
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6618
1149. txjac
Quoting neutralenso:
Everyone Calm Down. I hate guessing and im not going to but if you people would like to:
A: mexico
B: texas
Anybody?


B, If you promise its just going to be a rain bringing wave ..
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
1148. MTWX
Quoting MeterologyStudent56:
heavy heavy cloud to ground lighting..... 40-45 mph gusts here in boca raton FL.

Everyone take cover NOW! If you live from West Palm Beach to Pompano Beach Florida... take cover now...

Can someone post the radar of south Fl?

I Believe its a Squall line from my studies?


haven't been studying long have you?? (or been in a severe storm before) just relax and take a deep breath, everything will be just fine...
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1391
Quoting superpete:
We have lots of jerk seasoning available here if anyone would like it on their crow, I can send the recipe...
I suggested curry .
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
What can I do but smile :), I'll just leave it at that!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Shear becomes very favorable by tomorrow.

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 39 46 50 56 61 67 71 74
V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 39 46 50 56 61 67 43 32
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 41 49 58 67 45 32
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 19 20 19 7 10 10 1 11 5 12 10 12 3
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Yeah, you notice he who shall not be named quicker than anyone.



i take it has a no lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting zoomiami:
If 90L is going to develop into anything -- even a tropical blob -- the least it could do is go in through central Texas and give them some rain.

by the way -- do you know that tropical blobs generally create more rain than hurricanes? the storms move through too fast, but the blobs hang around forever.

Houstonians know all about this phenomena...they call it Allison.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2314
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 332
Quoting Tazmanian:



can you plzs make me a ADMIN

Yeah, you notice he who shall not be named quicker than anyone.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5521
1138. xcool
f5f5f5f5 refresh
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1137. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
REVISED LOCATION
XX/INV/90L
MARK
19.31N/78.91W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52230
If 90L is going to develop into anything -- even a tropical blob -- the least it could do is go in through central Texas and give them some rain.

by the way -- do you know that tropical blobs generally create more rain than hurricanes? the storms move through too fast, but the blobs hang around forever.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting emcf30:


Angela, It's good having interaction from the admin side of the blog from time to time. I for one welcome your professional input. Thanks


Agreed.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30245
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hey, guess what? We get model runs again!
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
Levi, Angela, do you guys think that 90L will develop?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30245
Very Strong Cell working in from the SE here.....
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 332
1131. Levi32
Quoting angelafritz:
Update from NHC - a reinstating of NHC 90L. The ECMWF 12z deterministic run increases the wave's vorticity as it moves across the Gulf. Compared to the past couple of days' runs, this is a big swing. Also, this run is now agreeing with the rest of the models on track: southern Texas/northern Mexico. I saw some folks mentioning that NGPS develops the wave? Im not seeing that, but it does agree with the 12z EC run that the vorticity could stay coherent. Looks like EC and NGPS are this wave's biggest fans right now.


Indeed. For those who want to see, here's the link to the 12z ECMWF 850mb vorticity forecast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:


1067. TampaSpin 12:19 AM GMT on July 26, 2011
I don't look at the present condition of old 90L but, what the overall pic of its presentation and what the possibility that is in front of it 72hrs out when it reaches the Western Tip of Cuba. Keep in mind that the 0% from the NHC is for the possibility of Tropical Depression development in 48hrs. Zero percent is 100% correct. But, 0% in 72 hours might not be correct? Just sayn!





gotcha
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Decay SHIPS takes it to 67 knots...

Interesting.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
1128. HCW
new model runs from the NHC

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MrstormX:


Good point, always wondered about your broken English. Are you a foreigner Taz? Or do you just have bad grammar. BTW, this is not meant to be mean..im just super curious.
OH man.... you mentioned grammar.... can I say something about full stops [periods to those Americans on the blog....]?????

LOL
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
Quoting Levi32:
Vorticity remains most well-defined at the 700mb level, and slightly weaker at 850mb.

700mb:



850:




un oh looks like 90L could go under a RI
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1124. emcf30
Quoting angelafritz:


I think its pretty balanced. If anything they might not rely on it enough. They rely heavily on current conditions: surface circulation, convection, and environmental conditions along the track. But then again, they're only ever forecasting out 48 hours. So relying on current conditions is fair.

For the rest of us who are looking out a week, two weeks... it's models, reading the latest research on TC development, and forecast experience!


Angela, It's good having interaction from the admin side of the blog from time to time. I for one welcome your professional input. Thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1123. Levi32
Vorticity remains most well-defined at the 700mb level, and slightly weaker at 850mb.

700mb:



850mb:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JupiterFL:


Great Idea! I second that.



lol ok
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting brazocane:
Wonder why the 8:00 TWO kept 0% if it was reactivated minutes later, are they thinking perhaps beyond 48 hours?


1067. TampaSpin 12:19 AM GMT on July 26, 2011
I don't look at the present condition of old 90L but, what the overall pic of its presentation and what the possibility that is in front of it 72hrs out when it reaches the Western Tip of Cuba. Keep in mind that the 0% from the NHC is for the possibility of Tropical Depression development in 48hrs. Zero percent is 100% correct. But, 0% in 72 hours might not be correct? Just sayn!



Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
Quoting Tazmanian:



hey can you make me a ADMIN


Great Idea! I second that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
heavy heavy cloud to ground lighting..... 40-45 mph gusts here in boca raton FL.

Everyone take cover NOW! If you live from West Palm Beach to Pompano Beach Florida... take cover now...

Can someone post the radar of south Fl?

I Believe its a Squall line from my studies?

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 332
And since somebody mentioned spelling.... a 3 second spelling note:

In the phrase "its chances", no apostrophe is needed in its. It's not needed in its "anything" - "its precipitation", "its forecast track", "its projected landfall location".... you get the drift. It's only needed when you mean "it is" doing something or the other...

And now back to your regular scheduled blog activity....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30245
1115. angelafritz (Admin)
Quoting scott39:
Is it safe to say that the NHC relies mostly on module support?


I think its pretty balanced. If anything they might not rely on it enough. They rely heavily on current conditions: surface circulation, convection, and environmental conditions along the track. But then again, they're only ever forecasting out 48 hours. So relying on current conditions is fair.

For the rest of us who are looking out a week, two weeks... it's models, reading the latest research on TC development, and forecast experience!
Quoting sarahjola:

i've been reading the blog since i posted my first comment and i have to ask, why do some think that ex90l is not better organized? i ask in all due respect as i have not been on since this morning. i am just wondering because this morning 90l was nothing but a cloud and now it has spin and thunderstorms. it seems a heck of a lot different than it did this morning. tia


OK I was wondering if you got your answer yet???? and If not this is the best I can come up with....
Oh Yea just to let you know I'm "Not Normally Right"....

Really 90L has went from a TD to a Mid-Level Low Pressure..... Thats also the reason why the computer modles have droppped it..... There are quite a few ppl on here that will say RIP and or End of Story and move on.... But hen we have some on here that has seen this before and wait and watch just to see if it will come back.... I my self am one of those that donot write off a system untill it is gone or on land. Thats only because you just never know....
Example 1979 Fredric check the video and just how bad that storm looked like as it was going over the same location.... They told us back then that Fredric was not going to make it but we all know what happened when it crossed Cuba.... It only takes 1 Storm to make you belive....

I hope this helped :o)

Taco :o)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1113. skook
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We have lots of jerk seasoning available here if anyone would like it on their crow, I can send the recipe...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting brazocane:
Wonder why the 8:00 TWO kept 0% if it was reactivated minutes later, are they thinking perhaps beyond 48 hours?


Read my post i just posted a few minutes ago!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
Quoting Tazmanian:
i all so want too see some mode runs

lol
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2314
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Haha, indeed.

Anyway, off to bed. Night Taz, make sure number 103000 doesn't involve mention of crow.



ok
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting druseljic:


You wouldn't... lol



i would lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wonder why the 8:00 TWO kept 0% if it was reactivated minutes later, are they thinking perhaps beyond 48 hours?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1156 - 1106

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.