A heat wave recap; generally quiet tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on July 25, 2011

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Last week's U.S. heat wave has finally subsided, and most of the Northeast will see some cool highs in the 70s today. Unfortunately, the Midwest, and mid-Atlantic will continue to see high temperatures in the 90s for the rest of this week, and the southern Plains will be forced to continue to endure triple-digits.

According to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), 2,100 daily high maximum temperature records have been set so far in July 2011, and 51% of those were set last week. 4,734 daily high minimum temperature records have been set so far this month, and 55% of those were set last week. Here's a breakdown of last week's records for the period July 18 through July 24:

High Maximum:

• 1,076 warmest maximum temperature for the date
• 90 warmest maximum temperature for the month of July
• 56 warmest maximum temperature of all time

High Minimum:

• 2,595 warmest minimum temperature for the date
• 207 warmest minimum temperature for the month of July
• 123 warmest minimum temperature of all time

The number of warm minimum temperatures is especially disturbing, as these tend to have more of an impact on health than the high maximums. When the temperature remains high at night, it prevents the body from being able to recover from the day's heat. According to NOAA, from July 1 through July 19, there were 22 heat-related deaths in the United States. Reuters is reporting that 34 deaths resulted from this heat wave. In an average year, heat remains the number one weather-related killer in this country. In some ways, the overnight low temperatures are the best way to quantify a heat wave, possibly even better than the heat index.


Figure 1. Map of daily high maximum temperature records for the period July 1 through July 25 from NCDC. Red circles without an X denote a broken record; red circles with an X denote a tied record.

Tropical Overview

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L is moving slowly west through the Caribbean near Jamaica. A new burst of convection started this morning, which will undoubtedly produce some heavy rain over southern Cuba and Jamaica. While low-level circulation has remained about the same since late last week, the wave has become top-heavy with increased circulation at higher levels (700-500mb). None of the models (GFS, ECMWF, CMC, NGPS, UKMET) are developing this wave as tracks into the Gulf of Mexico, and they're all in agreement that the path will be toward far southern Texas or northern Mexico, except for the ECMWF deterministic run, which hints that it will take a turn toward the northern Gulf. However, this model hasn't shown actual development from the wave since Tuesday or Wednesday of last week.

NHC has dropped this invest as of Saturday afternoon, but it remains on their radar. They're giving the wave a 0% chance to form over the next 48 hours. Given the recent uptick in mid-level circulation, I'd imagine they're still a little concerned about the potential for this wave to fire-up again once it's in the Gulf, and it will surely be of concern for Cuba as it tracks westward. However, given the lack of model support for almost 7 days in a row now, I'd say this wave has seen its glory come and go.


Figure 2. Visible tropical Atlantic satellite captured at 11:14am EDT on Monday.

Other North Atlantic waves

There are a couple other waves to speak of that have left the coast of Africa in the past few days, one located near 40W and the other closer to Africa, around 30W, which is tangled up in the monsoon trough. The former is expected to take a southerly track, skirting northern South America, and possibly into the Bay of Campeche. Given this track, none of the models are suggesting it will develop. However, tropical cyclones that spin up in the Bay of Campeche generally have a short forecast lead time, so it's something to watch. The latter wave could take a slightly more northern track through the Caribbean islands, and a couple of the models seem to favor this wave for development at the end of their runs.

Tropical wave activity has been lacking so far this season, but climatologically we should see an increase in African easterly waves in August and September.

Angela

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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:


Whats at 80W?


Lots of "Warm Water"

Taco :o)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3173
Interesting that the EURO and 18Z GFS both send this system more Northwestward after entering the gulf where the Euro is pushing much needed rainfall into the big bend of Texas and the GFS hinting at the TX/La border...thats two pretty big outliers there
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850 is tightening up. Wondering what the surface winds are showing.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just a question for the ones who do not believe 90L will develop.

What is your reasoning behind this?


What, you think I don't have a reason other than being bored by this one? Come on, Cody! ;)

Seriously though, it's because the the GFS keeps some unfavorable upper-level easterlies (20 to 30 kt) associated with the eastern United States ridge over the Gulf for the next 48-60 hours, which may not allow much in the way of organization. Another factor is the broad nature of the circulation, which was never well organized.
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Quoting CypressJim08:
Nice to see that Angela is blogging with the regulars, something that Dr. Master's would never think about doing. Thank god we have Levi :)
Dr M spends his time advancing the leading edge in Meteorology. He is truely OUR Stephen Hawking.
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Cookin'


Now:



72 hours:

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
Quoting texascoastres:
Tampaspin do you think those to areas may merge together in the GOM



Merge, its all part of the same feature. What you are see is the heating of the day over land and the influence if instability caused by 90L. There is also Divergence caused by the ULL to the NW of the Yucatan as well that caused the mess over Mexico.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
Quoting alfabob:
I'd move those model runs about 0.8 degrees to the north, center is developing at 20N; not where they are initialized at. It's also about to cross 80W, going to be interesting. Enjoy the popcorn before the show starts.

Yup.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5521
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Just a question for the ones who do not believe 90L will develop.

What is your reasoning behind this?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30263
Quoting KoritheMan:


Hey Trevor. As I said, I guess I'll write an update on this system after all, although I really do hate teases.

Still not real enthusiastic about development chances, though.


I dont know if you seen my post earlier but some of the factors going into this is that the airmass around the system is becoming more and more unstable...What looks like some sort of upper level perbuation is ushering in cooler air in the upper levels along with this wave approaching very high TCHP and water temps which will all but increase buoyant energy and thus evaporation which will all but increase lapse rates and instability..It also looks like these system is starting to show some signs of 750-800mb spin and working down it will only take a little forced lifting such as an outflow boundary from Cuba's dying storms to start the convection process...I am not saying it will develop but i do expect it to have a good night...IMO
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Quoting alfabob:
I'd move those model runs about 0.8 degrees to the north, center is developing at 20N; not where they are initialized at. It's also about to cross 80W, going to be interesting.


Whats at 80W?
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Call me crazy, but any slight shift of that high that would allow this thing to track the tip of the yuc or through the straight could make this a very interesting storm.

Water is right, shear is low, moisture is available.

That all seems like a bit of a long shot though. Am I missing anything?
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I'm glad 90L is back. Our good friends in Texas need the rain in a major way.
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Tampaspin do you think those to areas may merge together in the GOM
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BTW, the blowups over FL and the Yucatan seem to be connected to those ULLs in the TWD Chicklet quoted a while back....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20734
Quoting alfabob:
I'd move those model runs about 0.8 degrees to the north, center is developing at 20N; not where they are initialized at. It's also about to cross 80W, going to be interesting.


Agreed. Just a tad further north.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30263
1186. txjac
Quoting TampaSpin:





BACK UP!....HUM! Nope i am not gonna say it!



You think it's going to pick up/absorb all of that moisture that is over Mexico?
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
1185. 7544
my vote is for taz
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6618
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
*Sigh*

I give up, 90L. We'll see what happens, I still don't buy it.
I'm with you. I want to see some continued t-storm activity through the evening hours before I get onboard... you know what they say about us cynics... just reformed romantics at heart... I've been burned before.... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20734





BACK UP!....HUM! Nope i am not gonna say it!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
hmmm will we get the rain we need in TX (uh minus the other nasty stuff?)
I guess 90L will be one to watch now.
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90L is a large, persistent Twave. That's all.

Kudos to Angela for a nice job with Dr. M's blog, by the way.
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1177. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Chicklit:


...you gotta be kiddin me...NHC never put a floater on it. They also never came out with a 2 PM "Two" today. It's been a 10% or 0 for at least 24 hours...What's up with that?!
Weak invests, like company and fish begin to smell after so many days...


things have changed

always will always have
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52267
Finally some rain hitting the hurricane awning from that monster off shore Pompano Beach :)Come on , you can make it , just a tad more !!!!
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Hopefully this time, the NHC will put a floater on 90L. That would be helpful at this point.

Levi, Angela, y'all here?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30263
Quoting CypressJim08:
Nice to see that Angela is blogging with the regulars, something that Dr. Master's would never think about doing. Thank god we have Levi :)
Hey, not fair; Doc M does it also when time permits and at his discretion... I think he doesn't get to "blog" as much as he might otherwise like...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20734
Quoting PcolaDan:


Boy oh boy are Jeff and Dewey gonna me mad they weren't here for this one. LOL

rofl
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2316
1172. MTWX
Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


I wud post the radar if i knew how.

Link
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1391
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Quoting superpete:
We have lots of jerk seasoning available here if anyone would like it on their crow, I can send the recipe...


Boy oh boy are Jeff and Dewey gonna me mad they weren't here for this one. LOL
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1169. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
REMEMBER JUST BECAUSE YOU CAN NOT SEE IT
DOES NOT MEAN IT IS NOT THERE

THINGS ALWAYS CAN AND WILL CHANGE

KOTG
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52267
This baby 90L MUST be something to watch. I have never seen ADMIN put up a big yellow statement before. Bye , I'm off to Home Depot with a list.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Does Cincinnati still have a team??? Definitely been following Twaves more than my "beloved" Reds.... [cough] even ex-Ls like this one...

Yeah..I feel ya. And yes, the Reds are still playing ball...at least espn still posts their, well, losses, I suppose. I think they took the Astros off the NL page...lol
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2316
Quoting louisianaboy444:


As i said earlier dont write it off just yet...I believe it may have a good night tonight


Hey Trevor. As I said, I guess I'll write an update on this system after all, although I really do hate teases.

Still not real enthusiastic about development chances, though.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



i take it has a no lol

lol
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5521
Quoting Neapolitan:
Hold off on the obituary; ATCF just re-invested 90L (note the pressure is down to 1011):

AL, 90, 2011072600, , BEST, 0, 192N, 798W, 25, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,


...you gotta be kiddin me...NHC never put a floater on it. They also never came out with a 2 PM "Two" today. It's been a 10% or 0 for at least 24 hours...What's up with that?!
Weak invests, like company and fish begin to smell after so many days...
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Quoting 7544:
looks like so fla gets the rain that was canceled due ti 9ol ex being dead now alive agin stroms buliding as we blog


I wud post the radar if i knew how.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 332
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
00z SHIPS



haha, I was JUST about to post that.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30263
I think the circulation point is located slightly too far south, i think it should be around 20N
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Quoting Tazmanian:



hey can you make me a ADMIN


I see a near 0% chance of that happening. :)
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Quoting Tazmanian:
i want some crow plzs lots of them
You can share some of my stirfry.... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20734
00z SHIPS

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yes. I'm quite confident at this point that it will not develop. So much so that I'm taking a much needed break from the blogging scene until things become interesting (as in, I'm on a temporary hiatus from writing blog updates).


As i said earlier dont write it off just yet...I believe it may have a good night tonight
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.