A heat wave recap; generally quiet tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on July 25, 2011

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Last week's U.S. heat wave has finally subsided, and most of the Northeast will see some cool highs in the 70s today. Unfortunately, the Midwest, and mid-Atlantic will continue to see high temperatures in the 90s for the rest of this week, and the southern Plains will be forced to continue to endure triple-digits.

According to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), 2,100 daily high maximum temperature records have been set so far in July 2011, and 51% of those were set last week. 4,734 daily high minimum temperature records have been set so far this month, and 55% of those were set last week. Here's a breakdown of last week's records for the period July 18 through July 24:

High Maximum:

• 1,076 warmest maximum temperature for the date
• 90 warmest maximum temperature for the month of July
• 56 warmest maximum temperature of all time

High Minimum:

• 2,595 warmest minimum temperature for the date
• 207 warmest minimum temperature for the month of July
• 123 warmest minimum temperature of all time

The number of warm minimum temperatures is especially disturbing, as these tend to have more of an impact on health than the high maximums. When the temperature remains high at night, it prevents the body from being able to recover from the day's heat. According to NOAA, from July 1 through July 19, there were 22 heat-related deaths in the United States. Reuters is reporting that 34 deaths resulted from this heat wave. In an average year, heat remains the number one weather-related killer in this country. In some ways, the overnight low temperatures are the best way to quantify a heat wave, possibly even better than the heat index.


Figure 1. Map of daily high maximum temperature records for the period July 1 through July 25 from NCDC. Red circles without an X denote a broken record; red circles with an X denote a tied record.

Tropical Overview

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L is moving slowly west through the Caribbean near Jamaica. A new burst of convection started this morning, which will undoubtedly produce some heavy rain over southern Cuba and Jamaica. While low-level circulation has remained about the same since late last week, the wave has become top-heavy with increased circulation at higher levels (700-500mb). None of the models (GFS, ECMWF, CMC, NGPS, UKMET) are developing this wave as tracks into the Gulf of Mexico, and they're all in agreement that the path will be toward far southern Texas or northern Mexico, except for the ECMWF deterministic run, which hints that it will take a turn toward the northern Gulf. However, this model hasn't shown actual development from the wave since Tuesday or Wednesday of last week.

NHC has dropped this invest as of Saturday afternoon, but it remains on their radar. They're giving the wave a 0% chance to form over the next 48 hours. Given the recent uptick in mid-level circulation, I'd imagine they're still a little concerned about the potential for this wave to fire-up again once it's in the Gulf, and it will surely be of concern for Cuba as it tracks westward. However, given the lack of model support for almost 7 days in a row now, I'd say this wave has seen its glory come and go.


Figure 2. Visible tropical Atlantic satellite captured at 11:14am EDT on Monday.

Other North Atlantic waves

There are a couple other waves to speak of that have left the coast of Africa in the past few days, one located near 40W and the other closer to Africa, around 30W, which is tangled up in the monsoon trough. The former is expected to take a southerly track, skirting northern South America, and possibly into the Bay of Campeche. Given this track, none of the models are suggesting it will develop. However, tropical cyclones that spin up in the Bay of Campeche generally have a short forecast lead time, so it's something to watch. The latter wave could take a slightly more northern track through the Caribbean islands, and a couple of the models seem to favor this wave for development at the end of their runs.

Tropical wave activity has been lacking so far this season, but climatologically we should see an increase in African easterly waves in August and September.

Angela

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Quoting j2008:

Form into a TC?? Yes I think so.
I agree, TC
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Who thinks 90L will form?
Who thinks not?


He sure does seem to be trying.
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http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/lo op _640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1
Watch this floater very closely...You have to have a good eye but if you look right between Cuba and the little island under it (Dont know Geography well) you can see a thin little line of clouds moving southward from Cuba and the convection enhance as it meets the wave...These outflow boundaries from dying storms on Cuba can be just the forced lifting needed to get things going
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Who thinks 90L will form?
Who thinks not?

I vote yes. (Crow..medium well)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2314
1302. j2008
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Who thinks 90L will form?
Who thinks not?

Form into a TC?? Yes I think so.
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
Quoting FLdewey:
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz


missed your chance earlier #1112 #1170
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Who thinks 90L will form?
Who thinks not?
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Gonna make a run. Want to see if this still looks like anything at midnight....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20684
1298. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Patrap:
Depth 26.C Isotherm

there down by the isle of youth the term runs deep 125 or greater thats where it gets its fire
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Quoting louisianaboy444:
If i'm not mistaken which I very well could be it looks like the 18Z GFS is showing some sort of squeeze playing with a high over Texas and a high over the East Coast and this system taking the path of least resistance right through the middle of them


SSSSHHHHHHHH :o) We want it to go to Texas....
I know we are down 20" of rain as of right now but we did get 2" of rain today so I'm willing to share.... If Texas wants it then they can have this one....

Taco :o)
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
anybody getting any lightening data over invest 90l or at least check my source is NA


best I can do

Link

Link
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
anybody getting any lightening data over invest 90l or at least check my source is NA


I don't know if this is what you want.
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Texas better be praying!


I'll take a Cat 1 to the jaw if I can get 8" of rain for it!
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I believe there is some shear in the GOM, 90L needs to get a LLC now while it's over the super-high TCHP if it's going to become anything more than a weak TS.

On the other side of the Atlantic, that T-wave about to come off of Africa looks like something we need to watch, it seems to have a decent low embedded in it.
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1292. scott39
Quoting Tazmanian:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CUBA...JAMAICA...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE NEARBY WATERS. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOS





ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh why wont they drop this
Taz, I give up
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
Quoting weatherh98:


is that a blowup of tstorms over the COC


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1288. j2008
Just had dinner, What did I miss??
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
XX/INV/90L
MARK
19.53N/79.81W




is that a blowup of tstorms over the COC
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1286. Patrap
Depth 26.C Isotherm

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125418
1285. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
anybody getting any lightening data over invest 90l or at least check my source is NA
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1284. aquak9
thanks p'cola!!

ok, we all dance at 1700Z, which is 1pm here in Fla, unless you're way out west in the panhandle.

We're gonna need some dance music!!!
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Quoting TampaSpin:


The gulf is pretty warm. I think that thing is gonna be a hurricane, just looking at that loop you posted. I just want the rain, a TS will do for me.
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If i'm not mistaken which I very well could be it looks like the 18Z GFS is showing some sort of squeeze playing with a high over Texas and a high over the East Coast and this system taking the path of least resistance right through the middle of them
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1281. Patrap


AMSU Radial/Height Cross Sections
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125418
Quoting aquak9:


just someone wu-mail me the answer, thanks. Wednesday, right? Then we can all check in and tell who actually did the dance.


1300 - 1:00 pm
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Here's my blog update on 90L. Check it out.

I'll be back later guys. Gonna watch a movie.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19109
1278. bappit
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, not fair; Doc M does it also when time permits and at his discretion... I think he doesn't get to "blog" as much as he might otherwise like...

Dr. M has a real job.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Convection continues to expand over the COC.


Watch it...watch it...lol
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1276. aquak9
Quoting aquak9:
what time is 1700Z, for east coasters? I wanna do a dance for him, too.


just someone wu-mail me the answer, thanks. Wednesday, right? Then we can all check in and tell who actually did the dance.
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There are other blogs u can go to.
Quoting Chicklit:


beating a dead horse has come to mind more than twice.

Basically, right now, I don't think 90L has a deep enough vortex to go significantly northward, though depending on how long this weakness hangs around, it could assuming the vortex gains some vertical integrity while traversing the Gulf. -- Korintheman

This makes sense, thanks.
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1274. bobbbo
Buda is just down the street from me and I know you share the pain.
Keep dancin' and maybe we'll get the clouds brewin'

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1273. Patrap
Any Local Wu radar Clock displays UTC for a quick reference if needed
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125418
Texas better be praying!
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1271. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
XX/INV/90L
MARK
19.53N/79.81W


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1270. Patrap
Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis

Time of Latest Image: 201107260000
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125418
1269. bobbbo

Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I have done about 1,000 rain dances in the past 10 months. :) You want to get real depressed drive to West Texas and Back from South Central Texas, the Land is Devastated and there are still thousands of animals trying to survive with No water and little to No food. I just got back, it is the worst i have seen in my 53 years of living in Texas. Temps are averaging 105 for highs the past several days so having a systme that even may come here is Positive News but I will not get excited until it is raining.

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Convection continues to expand over the COC.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30237
Here's my prediction:

Invest 90L will continue to organize, and move north of the Yucatan in 24-36 hours or so. After that, a little more northerly component will take place with the retreating high. But, a more westerly path will commence once the high begins to build in by the end of the week. At this time, a southern Texas/northern Mexico threat.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30237
1266. aquak9
what time is 1700Z, for east coasters? I wanna do a dance for him, too.
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Quoting louisianaboy444:


I see what your saying Kori i just had to put you through the ringer man lol...its good to talk to you again


Hah! Nothing wrong with debate. Good talking with you as well, old friend.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19109
This is the second time I've posted shear map in one hour. Repeating myself! At the risk of being boring, signing off.

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1263. jeebsa
I'm on Florida's east coast, our drought is alittle better but Texas can use that rain more than us
Quoting Chicklit:

Sorry jeebsa, looks like it's a lateral.
Not yet for you but there's more to come fo sho.
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1262. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125418
For those who want a quick glance at what's been happening with 90L since ATCF cast us adrift
at 17.5n70.0w on 24July12pmGMT
24July12pmGMT -- 17.4n70.1w , 25knots , 1013millibar
24July06pmGMT -- 17.8n72.1w , 25knots , 1012millibar
25July12amGMT -- 18.1n73.8w , 25knots , 1012millibar
25July06amGMT -- 18.4n75.5w , 25knots , 1012millibar
25July12pmGMT -- 18.6n77.0w , 25knots , 1012millibar
25July06pmGMT -- 18.9n78.5w , 25knots , 1011millibar
26July12amGMT -- 19.2n79.8w , 25knots , 1011millibar

Copy&paste 17.4n70.1w-17.8n72.1w, 17.8n72.1w-18.1n73.8w, 18.1n73.8w-18.4n75.5w, 18.4n75.5w-18.6n77.0w, 18.6n77.0w-18.9n78.5w, 18.9n78.5w-19.2n79.8w, cun, gcm, pot, jee, hex into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
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Quoting jeebsa:
The old refresh Just got on I see 90 is back on the board. Any potential there for Texas I hope (rain maker) perhaps

Sorry jeebsa, looks like it's a lateral.
Not yet for you but there's more to come fo sho.
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1259. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting FrankZapper:
This 90L is headed to the area where Camille blew up from nothing to the strongest ever to make landfall back in 69.


yes things can happen sometimes in a big way



1214. bobbbo 12:59 AM GMT on July 26, 2011
It must be the heat…well, of course it is, and this dad-gummed drought, too.
I finally have to send a note to my WU comrades.
I’ve lurked here for years and soaked up so much info that now I can actually understand 70% of the charts and have a feel for your unique, singular, and interesting personalities.
Also, I can’t count how many photos I’ve used over the years as my desktop background and have sent to my loved ones pertinent to their home towns.
WU has been the nicest thing to come my way since folding money and at this time I’m gonna ask y’all to do just one little thing for me…

Here in central TX (Austin), we are having a worse summer than 2009.
If it's not too much trouble, what I’d like everybody to do, is at 1700Z on 7/27, is a teensey little group rain dance.

No…nothing spectacular with any smoke and feathers… maybe just get up from your office chair, throw your hands over your head, dance around that chair, sing up to the acoustic ceiling …
”PLEASE MOTHER NATURE BRING A LITTLE BLESSED RAIN TO THE POOR SOULS AND ANIMALS IN GOD’S OWN COUNTRY, TEXAS, AMEN!

If that’s a little much then you can leave out the AMEN.

Thank you most kindly.
AMEN


so shall it be done
off to texas this run
bring rain no sun
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Quoting KoritheMan:


My point was that, regardless of the wavelength of the respective impulses, yesterday's models pointed toward the ridge being weakest at 500 mb. As a rule, a deeper vortex tends to travel more poleward, as the Bermuda/Azores high is typically weaker at the mid levels than the lower ones, hence why weaker systems tend to travel westward within the lower tropospheric flow despite the mid-level flow being weaker.

Basically, right now, I don't think 90L has a deep enough vortex to go significantly northward, though depending on how long this weakness hangs around, it could assuming the vortex gains some vertical integrity while traversing the Gulf.


I see what your saying Kori i just had to put you through the ringer man lol...its good to talk to you again
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1257. jeebsa
The old refresh Just got on I see 90 is back on the board. Any potential there for Texas I hope (rain maker) perhaps
Quoting Chicklit:


The F5 button usually works.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Time for Dinner..........will be on late tonite for an update .........gotta a lot more out there besides 90L to start watching!


beating a dead horse has come to mind more than twice.

Basically, right now, I don't think 90L has a deep enough vortex to go significantly northward, though depending on how long this weakness hangs around, it could assuming the vortex gains some vertical integrity while traversing the Gulf. -- Korintheman

This makes sense, thanks.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.