A heat wave recap; generally quiet tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on July 25, 2011

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Last week's U.S. heat wave has finally subsided, and most of the Northeast will see some cool highs in the 70s today. Unfortunately, the Midwest, and mid-Atlantic will continue to see high temperatures in the 90s for the rest of this week, and the southern Plains will be forced to continue to endure triple-digits.

According to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), 2,100 daily high maximum temperature records have been set so far in July 2011, and 51% of those were set last week. 4,734 daily high minimum temperature records have been set so far this month, and 55% of those were set last week. Here's a breakdown of last week's records for the period July 18 through July 24:

High Maximum:

• 1,076 warmest maximum temperature for the date
• 90 warmest maximum temperature for the month of July
• 56 warmest maximum temperature of all time

High Minimum:

• 2,595 warmest minimum temperature for the date
• 207 warmest minimum temperature for the month of July
• 123 warmest minimum temperature of all time

The number of warm minimum temperatures is especially disturbing, as these tend to have more of an impact on health than the high maximums. When the temperature remains high at night, it prevents the body from being able to recover from the day's heat. According to NOAA, from July 1 through July 19, there were 22 heat-related deaths in the United States. Reuters is reporting that 34 deaths resulted from this heat wave. In an average year, heat remains the number one weather-related killer in this country. In some ways, the overnight low temperatures are the best way to quantify a heat wave, possibly even better than the heat index.


Figure 1. Map of daily high maximum temperature records for the period July 1 through July 25 from NCDC. Red circles without an X denote a broken record; red circles with an X denote a tied record.

Tropical Overview

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L is moving slowly west through the Caribbean near Jamaica. A new burst of convection started this morning, which will undoubtedly produce some heavy rain over southern Cuba and Jamaica. While low-level circulation has remained about the same since late last week, the wave has become top-heavy with increased circulation at higher levels (700-500mb). None of the models (GFS, ECMWF, CMC, NGPS, UKMET) are developing this wave as tracks into the Gulf of Mexico, and they're all in agreement that the path will be toward far southern Texas or northern Mexico, except for the ECMWF deterministic run, which hints that it will take a turn toward the northern Gulf. However, this model hasn't shown actual development from the wave since Tuesday or Wednesday of last week.

NHC has dropped this invest as of Saturday afternoon, but it remains on their radar. They're giving the wave a 0% chance to form over the next 48 hours. Given the recent uptick in mid-level circulation, I'd imagine they're still a little concerned about the potential for this wave to fire-up again once it's in the Gulf, and it will surely be of concern for Cuba as it tracks westward. However, given the lack of model support for almost 7 days in a row now, I'd say this wave has seen its glory come and go.


Figure 2. Visible tropical Atlantic satellite captured at 11:14am EDT on Monday.

Other North Atlantic waves

There are a couple other waves to speak of that have left the coast of Africa in the past few days, one located near 40W and the other closer to Africa, around 30W, which is tangled up in the monsoon trough. The former is expected to take a southerly track, skirting northern South America, and possibly into the Bay of Campeche. Given this track, none of the models are suggesting it will develop. However, tropical cyclones that spin up in the Bay of Campeche generally have a short forecast lead time, so it's something to watch. The latter wave could take a slightly more northern track through the Caribbean islands, and a couple of the models seem to favor this wave for development at the end of their runs.

Tropical wave activity has been lacking so far this season, but climatologically we should see an increase in African easterly waves in August and September.

Angela

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wunderground is going to burn out soon...Just spent five minutes trying to get back on the blog.

Slow your roll before we won't have anywhere to post :(


proly your connection im fine
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My neighbor Elway just got back from the corner tavern and he says that a developing hurricane is headed for the Gulf. Is there any truth to this?
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Quoting j2008:

Way too long, dangerously long.


the undergrowth is to big the trees are to tall katrina cleared it out andnature repared it wwe might have trouble in sela this year
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1353. j2008
My guess is at 2 Am we will have a 30-40%.
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
Wunderground is going to burn out soon...Just spent five minutes trying to get back on the blog.

Slow your roll before we won't have anywhere to post :(
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1351. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:



I'd like to see the TWO/6z models/DMAX before getting into this one.


I'm curious as to what you think of the feature at around 37W...just an ITCZ disturbance?
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
That's it. Camille cinches it.
Mark 1:02AM GMT 7/26.....TD-to-be gets compared to Hugo, Katrina, Ike, Andrew, and Camille.....I'd say it sets some sort of record but it's pretty much a 100% sure thing that happens with every wave the blog tracks.

Does it bother you?
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1345. j2008
Quoting FLdewey:
It is more and more obvious each and every day that we've gone too long without a landfalling hurricane.

Way too long, dangerously long.
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Who thinks 90L will form?
Who thinks not?


One more for it forming. I said minimal Cat 1 when it was nearing the Lesser Antilles, so I'll stick with that guess.
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1176
Quoting FrankZapper:
This 90L is headed to the area where Camille blew up from nothing to the strongest ever to make landfall back in 69.
That's it. Camille cinches it.
Mark 1:02AM GMT 7/26.....TD-to-be gets compared to Hugo, Katrina, Ike, Andrew, and Camille.....I'd say it sets some sort of record but it's pretty much a 100% sure thing that happens with every wave the blog tracks.
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Quoting j2008:

Deep fried, everything is better deep fried. LOL

Just like chicken!! LOL
But seriously, 90L will hopefully develop into a weak storm that brings a ton of rain to Texas.
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1338. xcool
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Who thinks 90L will form?
Who thinks not?


I think it could.
Also, does crow taste better fried or grilled? XD


Well, everyone on the Gulf Coast knows about Tony Chachere's..."Tastes Great on Everything"!!! So "Crow and Tony's" (Creole Crow) is a sure hit!!
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Now 4 people! lol
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Anyone ever tried steamed crow? I think I may. :)

Think it will develop?



I'd like to see the TWO/6z models/DMAX before getting into this one.
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Who thinks 90L will form?
Who thinks not?


It is definitely trying.
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1332. drs2008
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
90L is really starting to pop convection near the MLC.

yes.Wait till it hits the gulf!!
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Quoting j2008:

Yea after I posted that, I remembered what time of year it is. That seconed one still looks impressive for this time of year.


Yes they definitely look impressive. Its about that time of year.
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Quoting j2008:

Deep fried, everything is better deep fried. LOL


Anyone ever tried steamed crow? I think I may. :)
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
90L is really starting to pop convection near the MLC.



Think it will develop?
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1329. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
XX/INV/90L
MARK
19.52N/79.84W


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1328. j2008
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Who thinks 90L will form?
Who thinks not?


I think it could.
Also, does crow taste better fried or grilled? XD

Deep fried, everything is better deep fried. LOL
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
The one time I leave the computer to vacuum out my car and 90L is reinstated?!?!
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1176
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Who thinks 90L will form?
Who thinks not?


I think it could.
Also, does crow taste better fried or grilled? XD
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Quoting FLdewey:
I feeeeel pretttyy... so prettty.


and witty?
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90L is really starting to pop convection near the MLC.

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1322. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
<
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1321. j2008
Quoting extreme236:


Still a bit too early in the season to get overly excited about these waves. As soon as they hit the water they could easily fade away.

Yea after I posted that, I remembered what time of year it is. That seconed one still looks impressive for this time of year.
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
Quoting FLdewey:
I feeeeel pretttyy... so prettty.


You got a real LOL when I read that. Thanks!
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So far 3 think 90L will form, 1 says he's trying, 1 says no.
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Is 90 finally committing to DMIN/MAX cycling?
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1314. jonelu
Gosh we need the rain....but since 90L is not coming into the FL/Bahamas as predicted last week it looks like Texas may get some rain. Yay Texas!
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Quoting j2008:

Double CV wammy comeing!!!! (another words, dang!!!)


Still a bit too early in the season to get overly excited about these waves. As soon as they hit the water they could easily fade away.
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1312. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
thanks CI Pcola
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1311. j2008
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
HERE WE GO!!

Double CV wammy comeing!!!! (another words, dang!!!)
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
1310. yoboi
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Who thinks 90L will form?
Who thinks not?
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Who thinks 90L will form?
Who thinks not?
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Who thinks 90L will form?
Who thinks not?



RIP 90L
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 1962
Quoting FLdewey:

Son of a biscuit!


Thought of you right away.

(why do I feel dirty now)
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Quoting j2008:

Form into a TC?? Yes I think so.
I agree, TC
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.