A heat wave recap; generally quiet tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on July 25, 2011

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Last week's U.S. heat wave has finally subsided, and most of the Northeast will see some cool highs in the 70s today. Unfortunately, the Midwest, and mid-Atlantic will continue to see high temperatures in the 90s for the rest of this week, and the southern Plains will be forced to continue to endure triple-digits.

According to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), 2,100 daily high maximum temperature records have been set so far in July 2011, and 51% of those were set last week. 4,734 daily high minimum temperature records have been set so far this month, and 55% of those were set last week. Here's a breakdown of last week's records for the period July 18 through July 24:

High Maximum:

• 1,076 warmest maximum temperature for the date
• 90 warmest maximum temperature for the month of July
• 56 warmest maximum temperature of all time

High Minimum:

• 2,595 warmest minimum temperature for the date
• 207 warmest minimum temperature for the month of July
• 123 warmest minimum temperature of all time

The number of warm minimum temperatures is especially disturbing, as these tend to have more of an impact on health than the high maximums. When the temperature remains high at night, it prevents the body from being able to recover from the day's heat. According to NOAA, from July 1 through July 19, there were 22 heat-related deaths in the United States. Reuters is reporting that 34 deaths resulted from this heat wave. In an average year, heat remains the number one weather-related killer in this country. In some ways, the overnight low temperatures are the best way to quantify a heat wave, possibly even better than the heat index.


Figure 1. Map of daily high maximum temperature records for the period July 1 through July 25 from NCDC. Red circles without an X denote a broken record; red circles with an X denote a tied record.

Tropical Overview

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L is moving slowly west through the Caribbean near Jamaica. A new burst of convection started this morning, which will undoubtedly produce some heavy rain over southern Cuba and Jamaica. While low-level circulation has remained about the same since late last week, the wave has become top-heavy with increased circulation at higher levels (700-500mb). None of the models (GFS, ECMWF, CMC, NGPS, UKMET) are developing this wave as tracks into the Gulf of Mexico, and they're all in agreement that the path will be toward far southern Texas or northern Mexico, except for the ECMWF deterministic run, which hints that it will take a turn toward the northern Gulf. However, this model hasn't shown actual development from the wave since Tuesday or Wednesday of last week.

NHC has dropped this invest as of Saturday afternoon, but it remains on their radar. They're giving the wave a 0% chance to form over the next 48 hours. Given the recent uptick in mid-level circulation, I'd imagine they're still a little concerned about the potential for this wave to fire-up again once it's in the Gulf, and it will surely be of concern for Cuba as it tracks westward. However, given the lack of model support for almost 7 days in a row now, I'd say this wave has seen its glory come and go.


Figure 2. Visible tropical Atlantic satellite captured at 11:14am EDT on Monday.

Other North Atlantic waves

There are a couple other waves to speak of that have left the coast of Africa in the past few days, one located near 40W and the other closer to Africa, around 30W, which is tangled up in the monsoon trough. The former is expected to take a southerly track, skirting northern South America, and possibly into the Bay of Campeche. Given this track, none of the models are suggesting it will develop. However, tropical cyclones that spin up in the Bay of Campeche generally have a short forecast lead time, so it's something to watch. The latter wave could take a slightly more northern track through the Caribbean islands, and a couple of the models seem to favor this wave for development at the end of their runs.

Tropical wave activity has been lacking so far this season, but climatologically we should see an increase in African easterly waves in August and September.

Angela

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Quoting twincomanche:
Chewing on worms probably prevents some allergies later in life.
Thanks, I'll consider adding them to her snacks.
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Link
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My mother swears by the ants... If she sees abnormal ant activity, she knows a storm is headed our way.

I, on the other hand, prefer "ensemble" forecasting... take everything into consideration.

Plus models are more fun to watch than ants...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
Quoting FrankZapper:
My neighbor Elway just got back from the corner tavern and he says that a developing hurricane is headed for the Gulf. Is there any truth to this?


No, at this time it's not even a TD but there is still some chance we might see it become at least a TS before landfall in Texas so watch out.
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


if those shrimp boat capts are noticing an unusual run, a change in the birds, etc...listen...not saying 90L is gonna be a katrina, ike or hugo...but it could be enuf to knock out some power, damage some boats, cause a little coastal flooding and depending on track...cause an evac on oil rigs for a day or 2...im one of the peeps that pays attention to the critters more than the computers...i do come here and i listen to the news as well...but still watch the critters and the trees...


I have to say Ants just over the last few weeks I seen a Stump thats 4' high and the Ants have moved to the top ove it and built a mound out of it.... Crazyest thing I have seen.... Then tonight I have seen the ants in my back yard coming on to my Deck... Not just on the edge of it either but into the middle of my covered Deck....
mmmmmmm was all I can say :o)


Taco :o)
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Quoting twincomanche:
With all due respect, they like the models predict 10 out of every 5 hurricanes. We still don't see much accuracy out past forty eight hours unless the storm is formed.


with all due respect back...i have seen my horses stampede before a cloud in the sky when a big storm is coming, leaves turn over on trees as pressure begins to change before it rains, etc...animals can sense a change in weather before a computer ever will...have seen computers say a massive storm is about to hit us and be under warnings and we don't get a drop of rain...computer never saw the storm fall apart...but can watch my dog when a warning comes out to see if we are actually gonna get hit with anything...when it is a dud...his is calm...when it is a boomer...he paces non stop...and this is hours before we are supposed to get it
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BTW, saw some cool lightning off to the SW as I was coming back about 15 minutes ago.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
Quoting PcolaDan:


Watch where you walk. :-|
My 2yo daughter was chewing on one like it was beef jerky.
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i watch the ants first, then the birds and squirls... if a storm is in your vacinity...ants will high tail it inside your house and the birds and squirls will go on a feeding frenzy first then disappear about 2 days b4 the storm hits....as far as worms...not sure of the relation to a ts but do know they do that when there has been quake readings...
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


depends on how you submitted it...when i used mine, i right clicked the pic i wanted to use and saved it to my computer...renamed it...then submitted that for my avatar...even tho everyone knows who tigger is...i used the back door...
You also might try uploading it again and putting in the comments section your source. Dunno if they will insist you get permission or not...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
Quoting FrankZapper:
A lot of dead worms on the pavement today.


Watch where you walk. :-|
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Quoting floodzonenc:

I KNEW I had seen you somewhere before... :)  I have the picture I wanna use saved to my computer, but when I submitted mine, I guess they thought I wanted to win a WU photo contest cause they tagged it as "plagiarized". 

Made me feel dirty, to tell the truth :(  Will try again...  Until then, grey will be my color.


did you rename the pic when you saved it to your puter?...if not...it could take them to the link of where you got it...been there, done that...and just cking...it isn't the talking tom cat is it? not even tom himself can use his pic roflmbo
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


if those shrimp boat capts are noticing an unusual run, a change in the birds, etc...listen...not saying 90L is gonna be a katrina, ike or hugo...but it could be enuf to knock out some power, damage some boats, cause a little coastal flooding and depending on track...cause an evac on oil rigs for a day or 2...im one of the peeps that pays attention to the critters more than the computers...i do come here and i listen to the news as well...but still watch the critters and the trees...


When I see a herd of gators headed north, I pack up the car and skeedaddle!
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


Nothing more than evening thunderstorms
Thanks.
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


if those shrimp boat capts are noticing an unusual run, a change in the birds, etc...listen...not saying 90L is gonna be a katrina, ike or hugo...but it could be enuf to knock out some power, damage some boats, cause a little coastal flooding and depending on track...cause an evac on oil rigs for a day or 2...im one of the peeps that pays attention to the critters more than the computers...i do come here and i listen to the news as well...but still watch the critters and the trees...
A lot of dead worms on the pavement today.
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
God evening everyone.I know it has proably been asked before,but what is that over the Yucatan Penn.? TIA
Hey... there's a ULL over that way sparking some showers.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
1383. j2008
Quoting sunlinepr:

Big burst of convection on the west side of the COC in the last frames.
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
I do think 90L has a shot at becoming a TS. The SHIPS has it at a hurricane.
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Quoting mcluvincane:


Looks like thunderstorms
Thanks.That what I was thinking.Looks to be some type of land induced thunderstorms.Boy 90L has played some tricks on us all hasnt it.
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Quoting FrankZapper:
Yea, he pretty much lives there. But there are a lot of old timers and even Tug Captains and Shrimpers. It looks like you stepped on the set of a Popeye Movie. And these guys know their tropics. So something is going down when they say a storm's a brewing.


if those shrimp boat capts are noticing an unusual run, a change in the birds, etc...listen...not saying 90L is gonna be a katrina, ike or hugo...but it could be enuf to knock out some power, damage some boats, cause a little coastal flooding and depending on track...cause an evac on oil rigs for a day or 2...im one of the peeps that pays attention to the critters more than the computers...i do come here and i listen to the news as well...but still watch the critters and the trees...
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
God evening everyone.I know it has proably been asked before,but what is that over the Yucatan Penn.? TIA


Looks like thunderstorms
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
Quoting twincomanche:
Another side note did anyone notice that more of the records broken yesterday were from back in the 1800's? It were hot back then sometimes.


Yes it were
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Quoting floodzonenc:
I have a question b/c I am severely tech-challenged.  I want to use a cool pic I found on Google as my avatar, but the sharp eyes at WU flagged it as "plagiarized".  Well, no crap, Sherlock, I am not trying to win a photo contest.  I just want a funny cat picture as my avatar :)

I've seen others whose avatars don't seem to be self-taken (Keeper...LOL).

What am I missing, or do I have to beg my own cat to make a funny face?

Thanks for your support.  I only ask b/c I need help and 90L is still in ICU...


depends on how you submitted it...when i used mine, i right clicked the pic i wanted to use and saved it to my computer...renamed it...then submitted that for my avatar...even tho everyone knows who tigger is...i used the back door...
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Quoting emcf30:

You mentioned Elway several times before. He is very fond of that corner tavern isn't he.
Yea, he pretty much lives there. But there are a lot of old timers and even Tug Captains and Shrimpers. It looks like you stepped on the set of a Popeye Movie. And these guys know their tropics. So something is going down when they say a storm's a brewing.
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God evening everyone.I know it has proably been asked before,but what is that over the Yucatan Penn.? TIA
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Quoting FrankZapper:
My neighbor Elway just got back from the corner tavern and he says that a developing hurricane is headed for the Gulf. Is there any truth to this?


Never hurts to start a good rumor, so...sure! It is headed for my house, and its name is DON which stands for Drought's Over Now.
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OK you guys are posting a lot, and can't think of anything else to post, so Good Night, I guess.
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Yep...

ITCZ related.

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On a side note, Dallas/Ft. Worth failed to fall below 85 degrees this morning, an all-time high minimum temperature record for that city. FWIW, it's 99 degrees there now. Link
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1365. txjac
Quoting floodzonenc:
I have a question b/c I am severely tech-challenged.  I want to use a cool pic I found on Google as my avatar, but the sharp eyes at WU flagged it as "plagiarized".  Well, no crap, Sherlock, I am not trying to win a photo contest.  I just want a funny cat picture as my avatar :)

I've seen others whose avatars don't seem to be self-taken (Keeper...LOL).

What am I missing, or do I have to beg my own cat to make a funny face?

Thanks for your support.  I only ask b/c I need help and 90L is still in ICU...


I have no idea how to help you but your post made me laugh! Hope you get it figured out
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


It doesn't appear to be associated with PO9L, so I doubt it's much more than a pulse within the ITCZ.





Yeah I noticed that earlier. It just seems to have persisted throughout the day and sparked my curiosity.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234




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Quoting FrankZapper:
My neighbor Elway just got back from the corner tavern and he says that a developing hurricane is headed for the Gulf. Is there any truth to this?

Maybe just maybe if 90l gets into the gulf as a td
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Quoting extreme236:


I'm curious as to what you think of the feature at around 37W...just an ITCZ disturbance?


It doesn't appear to be associated with PO9L, so I doubt it's much more than a pulse within the ITCZ.



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1358. j2008
Quoting FrankZapper:
My neighbor Elway just got back from the corner tavern and he says that a developing hurricane is headed for the Gulf. Is there any truth to this?

There is 90L but it is nowhere near hurricane status. So no there is not a hurricane heading to the gulf.
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
1357. emcf30
Quoting FrankZapper:
My neighbor Elway just got back from the corner tavern and he says that a developing hurricane is headed for the Gulf. Is there any truth to this?

You mentioned Elway several times before. He is very fond of that corner tavern isn't he.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wunderground is going to burn out soon...Just spent five minutes trying to get back on the blog.

Slow your roll before we won't have anywhere to post :(


proly your connection im fine
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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